PI Industries: Custom synthesis exports deliver growth of ~26% in Q1FY16; Buy
Hdfc morning note
1. Morning Note
Retail Research
Key Indices Oct 28 % Chg
Sensex 26881 +0.48
Nifty 8028 +0.45
BSE 500 10251 +0.36
DJIA* 17006 +1.12
Nasdaq* 4564 +1.75
MSCI Emerging Markets* 992 +1.51
MSCI AC Pacific* 136 +0.28
MSCI World* 1684 +1.06
*= in USD
Sectoral Indices Oct 28 % Chg
Major Gainers
BSE HC 14128 +1.42
BSE Power 2113 +0.96
Major Losers
BSE Oil & Gas 10617 -0.23
BSE FMCG 7333 -0.12
Top Gainers
(BSE-100) CMP (Rs) % Chg
RANBAXY 634.10 +6.11
SUNPHARMA 839.25 +4.31
CIPLA 645.45 +2.92
Top Losers
(BSE-100) CMP (Rs) % Chg
LUPIN 1357.65 -2.61
NESTLEIND 5969.80 -2.20
JSWSTEEL 1208.95 -2.09
52 Week High Price (Rs)
ACCELYA 850.95
CEATLTD 919.00
52 Week Low Price (Rs)
CMAHENDRA 10.65
PDSMFL 202.10
Turnover (Rs bn) NSE BSE
Oct 28 142.25 -
5 days average 122.23 -
Advance-Decline NSE BSE
Oct 28 1.21:1 1.10:1
5 days average 2.14:1 1.88:1
Volatility Index (ViX) Nifty CBOE
Oct 28 13.32 14.39
5 days average 13.18 16.17
Net Flows (Cr) Debt FII FII MF
Oct 27 1556.3 64.9 -
Cumulative for
Oct 14809.5 -3149.6 -
5 days average 1075.7 89.8 -
Interest Rates 3 month Chg bps
MIBOR 8.82 -2.00
LIBOR – UK 0.55 0.00
LIBOR – USA 0.23 0.00
LIBOR – Europe 0.06 0.00
Exchange Rates Value % Chg
USD/INR 61.35 +0.20
USD/EURO 0.79 -0.29
USD/YEN 108.16 +0.30
USD/POUND 0.62 -0.10
Other# Value % Chg
RJ/CRB Index 272.09 +0.62
Gold ($ / Oz) 1229.40 +0.01
Crude Oil ($ / Barrel) 81.42 +0.52
1
Market Round Up Oct 29, 2014
Indian Markets
Benchmark share indices ended higher on Tuesday ahead of the two-day US Federal
Reserve Open Market Committee meet. The 30-share Sensex ended up 128 points at
26,881 and the 50-share Nifty ended up 36 points at 8,028. In the broader market, BSE
Mid cap Index ended flat while BSE Small cap gained around 0.7%.
Market breadth ended positive with 1,507 advances against 1,372 declines. NSE cash
turnover was at Rs. 14202.
BSE Health Care index closed with a gain of more than 1% followed closely by BSE
Power index. BSE FMCG and Oil & Gas indices closed with loss of 0.1-0.2% each.
L&T extended gains and closed up around 0.5%. ICICI Bank closing up around 2%
As per provisional figures on Tuesday, FIIs were net sellers of Rs 108 cr in the cash
market and net sellers of Rs 662 cr in F&O markets. DIIs were net sellers of Rs 100 cr
in the cash market.
US & European Markets
Stocks’ recovery from a brief October swoon picked up pace ahead of a high-profile
Federal Reserve decision, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 187.81 points
for a fourth consecutive daily gain on Tuesday. The rise was led by sectors that were
hit hard in the early-October selloff, with an exchange-traded fund tracking oil-services
stocks up 2.9%. The Dow Jones advanced 1.1%, while Nasdaq & S&P 500 gained
1.7% & 1.2% respectively.
European stocks ended in the green. FTSE 100 in London gained 0.6%, while CAC 40
in France & DAX 30 in Germany ended higher by 0.4% & 1.9% respectively.
Most of the ADRs ended positive. Banking stocks, HDFC Bank was up 2% while ICICI
Bank was also up 2%. Infosys was up 1.3% while Wipro was up 0.9%. Tata Motors
was up 3.9% while Dr Reddy’s was down 0.6%.
Latin American Markets
Among the Latin American markets, Shares in Mexico was up 0.5% while Brazil
Bovespa was up 3.6%.
Asian Markets
Asian markets are broadly higher today with shares in Japan leading the region. The
Nikkei 225 is up 1.36% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 0.91% and China's
Shanghai Composite is up 0.33%.
As of IST 8.30 am SGX Nifty is trading higher by 42.5 points.
Currencies
The Indian rupee closed marginally down against the dollar on Tuesday, ahead of the
beginning of the US Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting. The home currency ended at
61.33, down 0.04% from its previous close at 61.31 per dollar.
The pound & Euro firmed against the dollar on Tuesday after U.S. durables goods
orders disappointed investors, though an upbeat report on consumer confidence
cushioned the greenback's losses. GBP/USD was up 0.26% at 1.6164, up from a
session low of 1.6088 and off a high of 1.6182, while EUR/USD was up 0.32% at
1.2741, up from a session low of 1.2685 and off a high of 1.2764.
Commodities
Oil for Nov 2014 contract ended higher by 0.5% at $81.4/barrel.
Gold for Dec 2014 delivery ended flat at $1229.4/troy ounce.
Key Events for Today
Japan – Industrial Production
UK – BOE Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals
US – MBA Mortgage Applications, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Fed Funds
Target rate, QE Total
India – M3 Money Supply
Outlook
Indian markets could open positive and consolidate at higher levels. Banks, Auto, Capital
Goods, Power could relatively outperform. Immediate support for Nifty is at 7975 level,
while immediate resistance is at 8180 level.
For fresh and / or open calls refer to page 4
2. Technical Analysis – Market Pulse Oct 29, 2014
Nifty Perspective Support Resistance
8027.60 Sideways 7940 8160
Nifty Trend Target Reversal
Near Term (1 day) Sideways/Positive 8065 7975
Short Term (7-21 days Up 8180 7725
Observation
After forming a negative candlestick pattern of bearish engulfing in last session as per daily timeframe chart, Nifty was not able to
show follow through decline yesterday and has shifted into sideways consolidation. Yesterday’s consolidation could be a formation
of variation positive candlestick pattern of ‘harami’.
Nifty opened yesterday with slight positive note and shifted subsequently into sideways consolidation with positive bias for better
Retail Research
2
part of the session. The opening minor intraday upside gap has been filled partially and Nifty recovered nicely towards the end.
The previous session’s bearish engulfing pattern has not been confirmed yesterday and that pattern is placed at the verge of
negation. This is positive indication for the short term trend of Nifty and non emergence of weakness (after the formation of negative
pattern) could either result in further sideways consolidation or upmove from here.
The strength of larger timeframe is once again coming into play. The strong bottom reversal pattern in Nifty as per weekly timeframe
chart of last week is now having positive impact on the smaller timeframe of Nifty. This could be the reason that negative pattern
formation in smaller timeframe (daily) is not getting confirmed on subsequent day. This is an indication if inherent strength of the
market and one may not possibly see any sharp declines in Nifty for near term.
The previous opening upside gap of 22nd Oct is still intact and remains unfilled, after four sessions of its formation. This could be
another reason to believe the strength of bulls to hold Nifty near swing highs.
Conclusion& Strategy
On the formation of negative candlestick pattern in last session, we were expecting minor declines in Nifty for short term. As long as
the strength remains in Nifty as per larger timeframe (weekly), we are unlikely to see any sharp decline from here as per smaller
timeframe like daily.
Hence, one may expect Nifty to continue to show sideways consolidation with positive bias or a gradual upmove for the next couple
of sessions and upside targets to be watched around 8160-80 levels in near term. However, immediate support is placed around
7970 levels, which could attract buying interest from lower levels.
3. Retail Research
For forthcoming Board Meeting on Oct 29, 2014
click on the following link
http://www.bseindia.com/mktlive/board_meeting.asp
3
News Flash Oct 29, 2014
Economy News
The recent signs of weakness in the European region has implications for Indian
companies which do business with it. A recent India Strategy report from JM
Financial highlighted a few companies in the industrials space, which would have to
be watched for signs of a slowdown on account of the problems of the European
economy. Industrials include companies such as metals and automobile
components.
India's engineering exports grew by over 20 per cent year-on-year to $6.48 billion in
September on account of high demand particularly in South Asia and West Asian
nations. In September last year, these exports were at $5.38 billion, according to
the Commerce Ministry data.
Corporate News
ONGC plans to ramp up oil output by 23% to 28-29 million tonnes by 2019/20 as it
brings newer fields into production. Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), which has
been under scrutiny of the Petroleum Ministry for falling output in past years, had in
2013-14 produced 22.24 million tonnes of crude oil from its fields. This year it is
targeting 23.51 million tonnes.
ABB India Limited announced 25% rise in net profit at Rs 45 crore for the third
quarter ended September 2014 compared to Rs 36 crore in the corresponding
quarter last year.
Ranbaxy Laboratories reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 477.75 crore for
the quarter ended September 30, 2014 on account of robust sales.
Lupin reported a 54% jump in second-quarter profit beating analysts estimates,
helped by robust sales in its domestic business and the United States, its largest
market. Lupin, India's second-largest drugmaker by market value, posted a net
profit of Rs 630 crore ($102.7 million) for the quarter ended Sept 30, compared with
Rs 406 crore a year earlier.
Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) wants to take advantage of falling oil prices to
more than double its overseas output to the equivalent of 400,000 barrels per day
of oil by 2018. Global oil prices sank to a four-year low at below $83 a barrel this
month, hitting valuations of energy explorers.
Amara Raja Batteries has surged, in otherwise subdued market. A strong
operational performance and overseas investor’s interest in the company have
seen rally in the stock.
Texmaco Rail & Engineering Ltd. has gained on new acquisitions and prestigious
orders despite reporting a 44% decline in net profit at Rs 3.32 crore for the July-
September quarter of the 2015 fiscal compared to the same quarter last fiscal when
it was Rs 5.93 crore.
Bulk Deals
Scrip Name Quantity (in lakhs) Fund Name Price
HIL +0.77 DELHI IRON AND STEEL COMPANY PRIVATE LIMITED 266.00
Urja Glob -4.00 EAST INDIA SECURITIES LTD 14.83
Key Corporate Action
SCRIP NAME BC/RD
BC/RD
FROM EX-DATE PURPOSE
Pfizer BC 31/10/2014 29/10/2014 A.G.M
RALLI India RD 30/10/2014 29/10/2014 100% Interim Dividend
TCS RD 30/10/2014 29/10/2014 500% Second Interim Dividend
Wyeth Ltd BC 31/10/2014 29/10/2014 A.G.M
4. Stock Ideas Oct 29, 2014
Retail Research
4
Update of Index Futures
Date B/S Positional Call Entry at Sloss Targets
Exit
Price /
CMP Exit Date
%
G/L Comments
Time
Horizon
Avg.
Entry
Abs.
Gain/Loss
27-Oct-14 S Nifty Future 8020.35 8051 7950 8001.15 27-Oct-14 0.2 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 8020.35 19.2
21-Oct-14 B Nifty Fut 7927 7880 8020 7949.65 21-Oct-14 0.3 Premature Profit Booked 1-5 days 7927 22.6
Update of Stock and Nifty Options Calls:
Date B/S Positional Call Entry at Sloss Targets
Exit
Price /
CMP Exit Date % G/L Comments
Time
Horizon
Avg.
Entry
Abs.
Gain/Loss
27-Oct-14 B Tata Steel 450 Put 4.35 1.95 10 5.35 27-Oct-14 23.0 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 4.35 1.0
17-Oct-14 B Zeel 310 Put 4 1.85 12 1.85 20-Oct-14 -53.8 Stop Loss Triggered 2-3 days 4 -2.2
Update of Momentum / Intra Day/Futures Calls:
Date B/S Positional Call Entry at Sloss Targets
Exit
Price /
CMP Exit Date
%
G/L Comments
Time
Horizon
Avg.
Entry
Abs.
Gain/Loss
28-Oct-14 B India Glycol 118, 122.7 115.80 134.00 128.0 28-Oct-14 4.3 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 122.70 5.3
28-Oct-14 B Polyplex 241, 248.95 237.50 270.00 250.2 0.5 Hold 2-3 days 248.95 1.2
28-Oct-14 B NRB Bearings 129, 135.05 126.85 149.00 134.8 -0.2 Hold 2-3 days 135.05 -0.3
28-Oct-14 B Patel Engg 90, 93.6 87.00 100.00 94.0 0.4 Hold 2-3 days 93.60 0.4
28-Oct-14 B Essel Pack 117.2 113.0 125.0 117.0 -0.2 Hold 1-5 days 117.20 -0.2
28-Oct-14 S Exide Ind Nov Fut 157.4 163.0 148.0 157.2 0.2 Hold 3-5 Days 157.40 0.3
28-Oct-14 B Suryarosni 95.1 92.1 101.0 94.8 -0.4 Hold 3-5 Days 95.10 -0.3
27-Oct-14 B Union Bank 226.4 217.0 245.0 231.0 28-Oct-14 2.0 Premature Profit Booked 3-5 Days 226.40 4.5
27-Oct-14 B Orchid Chem 73.10 70.50 78.00 73.2 0.1 Hold 2-3 days 73.10 0.1
27-Oct-14 B Jet Airways 228, 235.75 225.00 248.00 231.2 -1.9 Hold 2-3 days 235.75 -4.6
22-Oct-14 B Dredging Corp 440, 447.7 425.0 500.0 457.0 27-Oct-14 3.0 Premature Profit Booked 1-5 days 443.90 13.1
22-Oct-14 B GRUH FIN. 194.25 186.5 210.0 200.7 27-Oct-14 3.3 Premature Profit Booked 3-5 Days 194.25 6.4
22-Oct-14 B Jyothy Lab 248 238.0 269.0 241.7 -2.5 Hold 3-5 Days 248.00 -6.3
21-Oct-14 S Bharat Forge Oct Fut 765-770 790.0 725.0 754.8 28-Oct-14 1.7 Premature Profit Booked 3-5 Days 767.50 12.8
21-Oct-14 B Gold Bees 2540.9 2490.0 2650.0 2490.0 27-Oct-14 -2.0 Stoploss Trig. 1-5 days 2540.90 -50.9
21-Oct-14 B GAIL 471.8 455.0 502.0 487.4 22-Oct-14 3.3 Premature Profit Booked 3-5 Days 471.80 15.6
21-Oct-14 B IRB Infra 243.4 234.0 265.0 248.0 22-Oct-14 1.9 Premature Profit Booked 3-5 Days 243.40 4.5
21-Oct-14 B BEL 2100 2000.0 2300.0 2029.1 21-Oct-14 -3.4 Exit Called 5-10 days 2100.00 -70.9
20-Oct-14 B PNB 946.15 910.0 1050.0 969.9 21-Oct-14 2.5 Premature Profit Booked 1-5 days 946.15 23.8
20-Oct-14 B Auro Pharma 931.7 899.5 995.0 959.0 21-Oct-14 2.9 Premature Profit Booked 3-5 Days 931.70 27.3
20-Oct-14 B TVS Motors 235.8 227.0 255.0 242.6 20-Oct-14 2.9 Premature Profit Booked 3-5 Days 235.80 6.8
17-Oct-14 S Century Textile Oct Fut 508.45 530.0 465.0 530.0 21-Oct-14 -4.1 Stoploss Trig. 3-5 Days 508.45 -21.6
17-Oct-14 B ABG Shipyard 223.65 215.0 239.0 224.0 21-Oct-14 0.2 Premature Exit 3-5 Days 223.65 0.3
17-Oct-14 S SAIL 75.75 77.0 71.0 77.0 20-Oct-14 -1.6 Stoploss Trig. 3-7 Days 75.75 -1.3
Update of Positional Calls:
Date B/S Positional Call Entry at Sloss Targets
Exit
Price /
CMP Exit Date
%
G/L Comments
Time
Horizon
Avg.
Entry
Abs.
Gain/Loss
27-Oct-14 B Lloyd Ele 153, 159.8 149.0 175.0 168.3 28-Oct-14 5.3 Premature Profit Booked 5-7 days 159.80 8.5
27-Oct-14 B Centum 465, 485.05 449.0 550.0 513.1 27-Oct-14 5.8 Premature Profit Booked 5-7 days 485.05 28.1
27-Oct-14 B Fortis 120.60 116.0 135.0 120.9 0.2 Hold 5-10 days 120.60 0.3
22-Oct-14 B ABIRLANUVO 1685.00 1609.0 1810.0 1655.0 -1.8 Hold 3-5 Days 1685.00 -30.0
20-Oct-14 B SKS Micro Finance 288, 297.65 282.0 320.0 313.7 20-Oct-14 5.4 Premature Profit Booked 5-7 days 297.65 16.0
17-Oct-14 S Allahabad Bank Fut. 101.00 105.0 93.0 105.0 20-Oct-14 -3.8 Stop loss Triggered 2 Weeks 101.00 -4.0
13-Oct-14 S Ambuja Cements Oct Fut 208.10 216.5 192.0 213.0 20-Oct-14 -2.3 Premature Exit 5-7 Days 208.10 -4.8
25-Sep-14 S ONGC Oct Fut. 402 - 410 420.0 360.0 420.0 20-Oct-14 -3.3 Stop loss Triggered 2 Weeks 406.00 -14.0
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building –B, ”Alpha”, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station,
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should not be relied upon as such. We may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may
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