Indian bond markets saw the yields inching down during the week ended Sep 19, 2014. We feel that the new 10-year G Sec yields could trade in the 8.35% - 8.70% band for the week.
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Weekly Mutual Fund and Debt Report - HDFC Sec
1. RETAIL RESEARCH
RETAIL RESEARCH
Weekly Statistics
Global Index 19-Sep 12-Sep Change (%)
Sensex 27090 27061 0.11
Nifty 8121 8106 0.19
DJIA 17280 16988 1.72
Nasdaq 4580 4583 -0.07
FTSE 6838 6807 0.46
DAX 9799 9651 1.53
Hang Seng 24306 24595 -1.18
Nikkei 16321 15948 2.34
Bovespa 57789 56928 1.51
Indonesia Jakarta 5228 5144 1.63
Singapore – Strait 3305 3346 -1.23
MSCI Emerging Mkt 1054 1062 -0.75
MSCI World 1740 1729 0.64
Mutual Fund Categories watch
Category Name 1
Week
1
Month
3
Months
6
Months
1
Year
3
Years
Arbitrage Funds 0.21 0.56 1.94 4.37 8.97 8.83
Balanced - Debt 0.25 2.60 5.60 14.43 21.80 12.45
Balanced - Equity -0.23 4.39 9.76 29.49 43.70 18.28
Equity - Banking -0.38 4.16 5.91 34.00 47.68 18.78
Equity – Div Yield 0.14 5.60 10.90 36.92 51.72 17.46
Equity - Infrastru -1.34 3.20 6.07 44.44 66.99 12.46
Equity - Large Cap -0.32 4.58 10.35 32.07 44.55 18.78
Equity - Mid Cap -0.40 8.38 15.66 51.81 86.70 26.23
Equity - MNC 0.50 8.06 19.01 46.04 64.95 25.65
Equity - Multi CAP -0.29 5.86 11.91 37.41 53.86 20.45
Equity - Small Cap 0.24 12.70 23.07 72.85 104.10 28.40
Equity - Infotech 2.26 9.06 17.41 26.92 45.73 28.21
Equity - Pharma 0.20 10.95 28.08 35.89 58.65 30.66
ELSS -0.47 5.56 11.58 35.17 52.35 20.33
Gold ETFs -1.48 -5.83 -3.49 -10.68 -12.22 -3.05
Gilt Funds 0.45 1.23 2.09 5.91 7.45 8.21
Income Funds 0.34 0.99 1.79 5.21 7.85 8.45
Liquid Funds 0.15 0.68 2.02 4.24 8.76 8.75
Note: Trailing Returns up to 1 year are absolute and over 1 year are CAGR. NAV/index values are as on Sep 19, 2014.
Equity Markets
A rally on Thursday, 18 September 2014 helped the key benchmark indices register marginal gains in the
week ended Friday, 19 September 2014. The rally was triggered by the US Federal Reserve at the end of a
two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, maintaining a commitment to keep US interest rates near zero
for a "considerable time". In the week, the 30-share S&P BSE Sensex rose 29.38 points or 0.1% to
27,090.42. The 50-unit CNX Nifty rose 15.95 points or 0.19% to 8,121.45. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index fell
117.82 points or 1.18% to 9,865.26, underperforming the Sensex. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index rose 24.39
points or 0.21% to 11,191.18, outperforming the Sensex.
Outlook for the current week
The equity market may remain volatile this week as traders roll over positions in the futures & options
(F&O) segment from the near month September 2014 series to October 2014 series. The near-month
September 2014 F&O contracts expire on Thursday, 25 September 2014. Trend in investment by foreign
portfolio investors (FPIs), trend in global markets, trend in other global emerging markets, the movement
of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movements will dictate near term trend on the domestic
bourses.
Developments from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's US tour from September 27-30 will be closely
watched. Narendra Modi will meet US President Barack Obama at the White House on 29-30 September
2014. The two leaders will discuss a range of issues of mutual interest in order to expand and deepen the
US-India strategic partnership. In global economic data, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will
release its third estimate of Q2 GDP estimate on Friday, 26 September 2014. All these events would be
watched closely by the market participants.
Global Markets
The main US benchmarks ended an eventful week with gains, supported by favorable outcomes in two
‘risk events’ this week. The Fed Reserve reiterated its commitment to facilitating the U.S. economic
recovery by maintaining its view on the timing of interest-rate hikes, and Scotland voted to remain part
of the United Kingdom. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 1.2% for its fifth weekly advance out of six.
Germany’s DAX Index (DAX) added 1.5%, while France’s CAC 40 Index rose 0.4%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific
Index declined 0.9% in the week.
G sec Markets
Indian bond markets saw the yields inching down during the week ended Sep 19, 2014. The G sec market
opened the week on Monday on a firm note tracking lower than expected reading on IIP and CPI numbers
last week. However, profit booking at some higher level and caution ahead of the FOMC meeting in the
US wiped off some gain.
Sep 22, 2014
Weekly Mutual Fund and Debt Report
2. RETAIL RESEARCH
10 Year G sec Benchmark move:
Weekly Statistics
Debt Securities Benchmarks watch
Debt (%) 19-Sep 12-Sep Change (bps)
Call Rate 7.83 7.95 -12
CBLO 8.07 7.85 22
Repo 8.00 8.00 0
Reverse Repo 7.00 7.00 0
10 Year G sec 8.45 8.50 -5
LIBOR – UK 0.56 0.56 0
LIBOR – USA 0.24 0.24 0
LIBOR – Europe 0.17 0.17 0
The G-Sec prices closed range-bound on Tuesday. However, the sentiment improved tracking a good
response to the repurchase auction. The rupee’s gain against the dollar also supported the bond prices.
The G-Sec market traded mostly range-bound on Wednesday awaiting the outcome to the FOMC
meeting.
Government bond prices ended higher on Thursday tracking the improvement seen in the domestic
currency.
Government bond prices ended marginally higher on Friday as the auction results came in line with
expectations.
Hence, the yields of the 10-year benchmark 8.40% 2024 bond ended down by 5 bps to 8.45% (Rs 99.62)
yield on Friday against the last week close of 8.50%.
Outlook for the week
We feel that the new 10-year G Sec yields could trade in the 8.35% - 8.70% band for the week.
T Bill Auctions
The T-Bill auctions held last week were fully subscribed in the 91 days T-Bill. The cut-off for 91-Days T-Bill
was set at Rs 97.9, implying a yield of 8.60% (previous week yield 8.60%). The 364-Days T-Bill auctions
were fully subscribed. The cut-off for 182-Days T-Bill was set at Rs 92.05, implying a yield of 8.65%.
Liquidity, Call & CBLO
The liquidity in the banking system hardened last week compared to the previous week. The net infusion
from the LAF window was a daily average of Rs. 14,747 crore for last week (Rs. 6,193 crore in previous
week). The inter-bank call rates traded around 7.83% levels on Friday. The CBLO rates were positioned at
8.07% level.
Corporate Debts
The 1 year bond ended at 9.05% compared to the previous week close of 9.05%.
The 10-year AAA bond traded at 9.24% compared to the previous week close 9.34%.
3. RETAIL RESEARCH
AAA Corporate Bond Spread over Gsec
AAA Corporate Bond Spread over Gsec
Security 19-Sep 12-Sep
1 Year 49 38
3 Year 51 57
5 Year 68 64
10 Year 61 64
Forthcoming Auctions
Security Date of Auction Value (Rs. Crs)
91 Day T-Bill 22-Sep-14 9,000
182 Day T-Bill 22-Sep-14 5,000
Certificates of Deposits:
Maturity 22-Sep 15-Sep
3 Months 8.65 8.75
6 Months 8.8 9.
1 Year 9.05 9.1
Commercial Papers:
Maturity 22-Sep 15-Sep
3 Months 9 9
6 Months 9.25 9.25
1 Year 9.4 9.35
Commodity Update:
Commodity 19-Sep 12-Sep Change (%)
NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl) 92.41 92.27 +0.15%
Gold (oz/$) 1,215.5 1231.5 -1.30%
Currency
The USD appreciated against the Euro by 1.05% for week ended 19th September 2014.
The dollar appreciated against the yen by 1.57% for the week.
The USD depreciated against the Pound by 0.11%.
Gold & Crude oil
International crude oil prices (WTI) rose by 0.15% for the week ended 19th September 2014 to close at
USD 92.41 per barrel.
International gold prices fell by 1.30% for the week ended 19th September 2014 to close at USD 1215.50
per troy ounce.
Gilt Securities Yields Movements in last 4 weeks
5. RETAIL RESEARCH
Unit Growth of investments Vs. Benchmark (Rebased to 100)
Fund Performance Vis-a-vis Benchmark (Excess return):
Key Points
ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Equity is one of the best performing schemes from Large-cap category. Despite
the mediocre performance seen in the recent periods, the scheme has delivered notable returns than its
benchmark –Nifty and category since its launch. The scheme registered +42%, +22% and 17% of
compounded returns for one, three and five year periods while the benchmark posted +33%, +17% and
+10% of returns respectively. For the same period, the category clocked 45%, +19% and +12% of CAGR
returns respectively.
The better performance by the scheme has been mainly attributable to the period the scheme entered
into the market. The scheme was launched in the year 2008, a period in which the equity market
witnessed correction across the board. This helped the scheme to set up the portfolio at lower valuation.
The portfolio of the scheme comprises bluechip stocks (from top 200 stocks by market capitalisation on
the NSE) which are relatively stable and have the capability to grow the corpus in long-run. The approach
of containing an average of 35-45 well established stocks in the portfolio, buy and hold strategy, being
almost fully invested in equity and efficient call strategy helped the scheme to outperform the category
during all market cycles.
The portfolio has been churned moderately in the last six months periods as it added 9 new stocks and
exited from 23 stocks. The turnover ratio stood at 40%. ICICI, HDFC Bank, ITC Ltd are the stocks that
topped in its latest portfolio having weights of 8.24%, 7.08% and 5.24% to its net assets respectively.
The expense ratio of 2.23% for the scheme is lower compared to the category average of 2.62%.
Rating agencies like Value research & Crisil assigned ‘5 star’ and ‘CPR 1’ respectively for the scheme.
These reflect very good performance of the scheme in generating high risk adjusted returns.
The scheme is managed by Mr. Manish Gunwani. The corpus of the scheme as per latest data was at Rs.
7,274 crore.
As far as risk measures are concerned, the scheme has done very well in terms of Sharpe and Jensons
Alpha. It registered Sharpe of 0.06% (Category 0.05%) and Alpha of 0.02% (Category 0.01%). It seems to
be less risky while compared to peers as it generated 0.94% (category 0.98%) of Standard Deviation over
the last one-year.
6. Mutual Fund ready reckoner:
RETAIL RESEARCH
Equity - Diversified - Large CAP
Scheme Name NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception Top holdings Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity - Plan A (G) 142.61 6162 55.89 22.52 15.71 24.80
ICICI Bank, L&T, HDFC Bank, ITC and
Infy
CPR 2 4 Star Average
Above
Average
Quantum Long-Term Equity Fund (G) 35.95 323 54.99 22.04 18.33 16.21
HDFC Ltd, Bajaj Auto Ltd, Maruti
Suzuki India Ltd, Infosys Ltd, Container
CPR 1 5 Star
Below
Average
High
ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip Equity Fund (G) 26.34 6908 50.35 21.27 17.19 16.73
HDFC Bank Ltd, Infosys Ltd, ICICI Bank
Ltd, ITC Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd
CPR 2 5 Star Low High
Equity - Diversified - Multi CAP
Scheme Name NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception Top holdings Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
Birla Sun Life Pure Value Fund (G) 32.51 249 110.50 27.67 21.80 20.17
Jyoti Structures, Reliance
Infrastructure, Federal Bank, ICICI
- 5 Star
Below
Average
High
ICICI Pru Dynamic Plan (G) 173.31 4840 55.36 22.46 17.59 27.28
Power Grid Corp, Infy, ICICI, HDFC
Bank & SBI
CPR 1 5 Star Low High
Mirae Asset India Opportunities Fund (G) 28.11 591 65.97 23.77 19.46 17.62
INFY, ICICI, HDFC, ITC and
HDFC Ltd
CPR 2 5 Star
Below
Average
High
Equity - Diversified - Mid n Small CAP
Scheme Name NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception Top holdings Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
IDFC Premier Equity Fund - Plan A (G) 58.35 5417 67.27 22.28 21.84 21.89
Page Ind, Kaveri Seed Company, Blue
Dart Express, Bata India, United
CPR 1 4 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
ICICI Pru Value Discovery Fund (G) 96.65 5724 95.41 30.92 23.73 25.38
ICICI Bank, RIL, Sadbhav Engineering,
SBI & Amara Raja Batteries
CPR 2 5 Star Low
Above
Average
SBI Emerging Businesses Fund (G) 78.14 1484 60.18 22.86 23.79 22.87
HDFC Bank, Shriram Citi, 3M India,
P&G Hygiene & Health Care
CPR 1 3 Star
Below
Average
Average
Equity - Tax Planning
Scheme Name NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception Top holdings Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
AXIS Long Term Equity Fund (G) 25.02 1854 78.50 28.21 21.76
HDFC Bank Ltd, TCS, L&T, Kotak
Mahindra Bank Ltd, ITC Ltd
CPR 1 5 Star Low High
ICICI Pru Tax Plan - (G) 243.14 2090 70.27 24.89 19.82 23.66
NMDC, Infosys Ltd, ICICI Bank Ltd,
HDFC Bank Ltd & Cairn Ind
CPR 2 5 Star Low High
7. RETAIL RESEARCH
Hybrid - Equity Oriented (Atleast 60% in equity)
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception Top holdings Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
HDFC Balanced Fund (G) 93.52 1897 61.60 19.73 19.67 17.37
Infosys Ltd, Mindtree, TCS, ICICI Bank
Ltd, Persistent Systems Ltd
CPR 2 4 Star
Below
Average
High
ICICI Pru Balanced Fund - (G) 80.81 941 52.12 21.36 17.87 15.14
HDFC Bank, Motherson Sumi,
Balkrishna Inds, Maruti Suzuki Ind
CPR 2 5 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
Hybrid - Monthly Income Plan - Long Term (About 15% to 20% in equity)
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
5 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception Top holdings Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
Reliance Monthly Income Plan (G) 29.67 2247 19.18 10.86 9.71 10.74
Eq: Sundaram-Clayton, Federal Mogul
Goetze, HDFC Bank. CP: PFC
CPR 3 4 Star
Above
Average
Above
Average
HDFC Monthly Income Plan - LTP (G) 31.92 3561 25.94 11.41 10.37 11.49
Eq: SBI, Infy, ICICI Bank, L&T. Debt:
TATA Power, Hindalco Inds
CPR 4 1 Star
Below
Average
Average
Liquid Funds
Scheme Name NAV (Rs) Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception Top Holdings Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
HDFC Liquid Fund (G) 26.21 15152 9.58 9.17 9.33 7.20
CP: National Bank Agr. Rur. Devp, CD:
National Bank Agr. Rur. Devp, Union
CPR 2 4 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
SBI Magnum InstaCash - Cash Plan 2937.55 1675 9.54 9.11 9.25 7.29
CP: M&M Financial Services, Kotak
Mahindra Prime, PFC, CD: SIDBI 2014
CPR 2 5 Star
Below
Average
Above
Average
Ultra Short Term Funds
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception Top Holdings Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
JM Money Manager Fund - Super Plan (G) 18.99 332 9.94 9.28 9.64 8.44
CD: PNB, SBT, Corp Bank, OBC. CP:
Shriram Equipment Finance
CPR 3 4 Star Average
Above
Average
SBI Magnum Income FRP - Savings Plus Bond
(G)
20.64 948 9.46 9.11 9.43 7.43
CD: HDFC, ICICI, IDBI. Debt: LIC Hou,
HDFC. CP: Sesa ste
CPR 2 5 Star Average Low
Short Term Income Funds
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception Top Holdings Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
Sundaram Select Debt - STAP (G) 22.70 798 10.07 9.68 9.77 7.08
FD: J&K Bank, D: 11.6% DHFL. 2015,
CD: Central Bank of India 2013,
- 5 Star Average High
Franklin india Low Duration Fund (G) 14.49 2247 10.67 9.67 9.85 9.50
Debenture: M&M Financial Serv, Tata
Capital Fin, JSW Energy, CD: SBB
CPR 4 3 Star Average High
8. RETAIL RESEARCH
Income Funds
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception Top Holdings Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan (G) 15.89 3285 12.19 10.38 10.84 8.92
Debenture: DLF, Tata Mot, IL&FS
Transport, RHC Holdings
CPR 3 5 Star
Below
Average
High
ICICI Pru Flexible Income Plan - Regular (G) 147.58 11179 9.19 8.55 8.72 7.42
CP: HDFC, Indiabulls Housing Finance,
JSW Steel. Bonds: NHB
CPR 1 4 Star
Below
Average
High
Gilt Funds
Scheme Name
NAV
(Rs)
Fund Size
(Crs. Rs)
1 Year
Return
2 Year
Return
3 Year
Return
Return Since
Inception Top Holdings Crisil
Rank
Value Research
Rating
Risk
Grade
Return
Grade
IDFC G Sec Fund - PF (G) 21.29 58 6.21 8.91 9.79 7.52
7.16% GOI 20/05/2023, 8.07% GOI
03/07/2017, 8.33% GOI 09/07/2026,
CPR 2 5 Star
Below
Average
High
L&T Gilt Fund (G) 30.85 70 9.01 10.49 9.94 8.13
8.83% GOI 2023, 9.2% GOI 2030,
7.28% GOI 2019, 8.24% GOI 2027
- 5 Star Low High
Notes:
NAV value as on Sep 19, 2014. Portfolio data as on July 2014.
Returns are trailing and annualized (CAGR).
The notations '5 Star & CPR 1' (used by VR & Crisil respectively) are considered as top in respective rating and ranking scales.
The performance of the funds are rated and classified by Value Research in the following ways. Top 10% funds in each category were classified ‘*****’ funds, the next 22.5% got a ‘****’ star,
while the middle 35% got a ‘***’, while the next 22.5% and bottom 10% got ‘**’ and ‘*’ respectively.
The criteria used in computing the CRISIL Composite Performance Rank are Superior Return Score, based on NAVs over the Quarter Ended June ‘14, Based on percentile of number of schemes
considered in the category, the schemes are ranked as follows: CPR 1- Very Good performance, CPR 2 - Good performance, CPR 3 - Average performance, CPR 4 - Below average and CPR 5 -
Relatively weak performance in the category.
While short listing schemes adequate importance has been given to corpus and age of scheme.
NFO:
Scheme name Tenure Open Date Close Date Minimum Investments
Equity
Reliance Capital Builder Fund - Series C (G) 3 Years 9/17/2014 10/1/2014 5000
IDFC Dynamic Equity Fund (G) 9/17/2014 10/1/2014 5000
JPMorgan India Equity Savings Fund (G) 9/22/2014 10/1/2014 5000
SBI Equity Opportunities Fund - Sr.I (G) 3 Years 9/11/2014 9/25/2014 5000
Sundaram Select Micro Cap - Sr.VI (G) 42 Months 9/10/2014 9/24/2014 5000
Balanced
ICICI Pru Multiple Yield Fund - Sr.7-Plan E-Reg(G) 1825 Days 9/17/2014 10/1/2014 5000
Kotak Equity Savings Fund (G) 9/17/2014 10/1/2014 5000
9. ICICI Pru Multiple Yield Fund - Sr.7-Plan D-Reg(G) 1338 Days 9/12/2014 9/25/2014 5000
LIC NOMURA MF CPO Fund - Series 5 (G) 36 Months 9/16/2014 9/24/2014 5000
UTI-CPO - Sr.IV - II(1104Days) - Reg (G) 1104 Days 9/8/2014 9/22/2014 5000
Gilt Funds
DSP BR Constant Maturity 10Y G-Sec (G) 9/16/2014 9/23/2014 1000
Fixed Maturity Plans
SBI Debt Fund Series A - 44 (G) 1111 Days 9/23/2014 10/7/2014 5000
Reliance Dual Advantage FTF - VI - Plan D (G) 1113 Days 9/19/2014 9/30/2014 5000
Birla Sun Life FTP - Series LY (G) 1101 Days 9/23/2014 9/29/2014 5000
DWS FMP - Series 77 - 1100Days (G) 1100 Days 9/19/2014 9/26/2014 5000
SBI Debt Fund Series A - 43 (G) 1111 Days 9/18/2014 9/25/2014 5000
UTI-FTI - Series XX - II(1103Days)-Reg (G) 1103 Days 9/17/2014 9/25/2014 5000
DWS Hybrid FTF - Series 30 (G) 40 Months 9/15/2014 9/25/2014 5000
Religare Invesco FMP - Sr.XXIV - Plan E (G) 1098 Days 9/12/2014 9/25/2014 5000
L&T FMP - Series XI - Plan E(1125Days) (G) 1125 Days 9/10/2014 9/24/2014 10000
HDFC FMP - 1128Days-Sep 2014(1)(XXXII) (G) 1128 Days 9/19/2014 9/24/2014 5000
DSP BR Dual Advantage Fund - Sr.29 - 40Mth (G) 40 Months 9/10/2014 9/24/2014 5000
Reliance Dual Advantage FTF - VI - Plan C (G) 1113 Days 9/12/2014 9/24/2014 5000
Birla Sun Life FTP - Series LX (G) 1099 Days 9/15/2014 9/24/2014 5000
ICICI Pru FMP - Series 75 - 1100Days Plan J-Reg(G) 1100 Days 9/17/2014 9/24/2014 5000
DSP BR FTP - Series 44 - 36Mth (G) 36 Months 9/12/2014 9/23/2014 5000
Reliance Fixed Horizon - XXVII - Sr.7 (G) 1099 Days 9/19/2014 9/22/2014 5000
ICICI Pru FMP - Series 75 - 1100Days Plan I-Reg(G) 1100 Days 9/9/2014 9/22/2014 5000
RETAIL RESEARCH
Dividend
Scheme Name Record Date Gross (%) Ex Date
ICICI Pru Balanced Advantage Fund (D) 9/19/2014 15.00 9/22/2014
Sundaram Tax Saver (D) 9/19/2014 5.00 9/22/2014
Birla Sun Life Buy India Fund (D) 9/18/2014 30.00 9/19/2014
IDBI Equity Advantage Fund - Regular (D) 9/17/2014 10.00 9/18/2014
Reliance Regular Savings Fund-Balanced (Div-Q) 9/15/2014 6.00 9/16/2014
SBI Magnum Multiplier Plus 93 (D) 9/12/2014 115.00 9/15/2014
Mutual Fund NEWS:
Change in exit load in Edelweiss Short Term Income Fund: Edelweiss Mutual Fund has announced to
revise the Exit Load of Edelweiss Short Term Income Fund to 0.50 per cent for redemption within two
months from the date of allotment. The scheme currently charges 0.50 per cent for redemption within
four months from the date of allotment. The change will take effect from September 18, 2014.
No exit load in Tata Gilt Mid Term Fund: Tata Mutual Fund has removed the exit load from Tata Gilt Mid
Term Fund, against the previous 2 per cent for redemption within 365 days, 1 per cent for redemption
between 365 days - 730 days, 0.5 per cent for redemption between 730 days - 1095 days.
10. Global Updates: (Source: AMC Newsletters)
India:
• According to Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion data, foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into India more than doubled to $3.5 bn in July compared to a year ago.
• RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan says the central bank is limiting the country's reliance on foreign debt and will continue to do so.
• According to SEBI data, investments into Indian capital markets through participatory notes (P Notes) surged to Rs 2.11 lakh cr in August.
• India’s wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation fell to a five-year low of 3.74% in August from 5.19% in July.
• India’s trade deficit in August stood at $10.83 bn, higher than $10.68 bn in the same month last year, but lower than July’s $12.28 bn; export growth slipped to 2.35% at $26.95bn in August,
while imports grew 2.08% to $37.79bn.
• SEBI issues clarification on position limits for mutual funds in interest rate futures, stating that fund houses can have position limits as available to trading members of the stock exchanges.
• RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan says an abrupt reversal of low interest rates globally could create substantial amounts of damage and that it should be done in a predictable and careful way.
• Moody’s Analytics expects India’s GDP growth to approach a 6% pace by the year’s end and accelerate towards 6.5% by end of 2015.
• RBI says companies and individuals who have furnished guarantees for wilful defaulters can also be accused as wilful defaulters.
Asia:
• China’s industrial output rose 6.9% in August from a year earlier, slowing sharply from a 9% rise in July.
• China’s retail sales rose 11.9% in August, compared with a 12.2% jump in the previous month.
• Japan’s industrial production expanded 0.4% in July, faster than the initial estimate of 0.2% rise and following the 3.4% decline in June.
• Japan’s consumer confidence index fell to 41.2 in August from 41.5 in July.
US:
• US producer prices increased 1.8% in the 12 months to August after rising 1.7% in July.
• US industrial production fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in August, after a revised gain of 0.2% in July; capacity utilization dipped to 78.8% in August from 79.1% in July.
• US Empire State general business conditions index rose to a five-year high of 27.54 in September from August's 14.69.
• US Treasury Department says the federal government ran a budget deficit of $129bn in August, $19bn less than the same month a year ago.
• US initial jobless claims in the week ending September 6 increased by 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 315,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 304,000.
• US wholesale inventories edged up 0.1% in July, the smallest rise in a year, after a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in June.
UK:
• UK consumer prices grew by 1.5% in the year to August, down from 1.6% in July.
• UK producer prices fell 0.3% in the year to August, compared with a fall of 0.1% in the year to July
• UK RICS House Price Balance fell to 40 in August from 48 in July.
Euro Zone:
• Euro zone services PMI fell to 53.1 in August from 54.2 in July, while composite PMI fell to 52.5 in August from 53.8 in July.
• Euro zone’s industrial production rose by 1% in July after falling 0.3% in June.
• Euro zone ZEW economic sentiment survey fell to 14.2 in September from 23.7 in August.
• Euro zone’s trade balance stood at a surplus of 21.2 bn euros in July, compared to a surplus of 16.7 bn euros in June.
RETAIL RESEARCH
11. Economic Calendar:
Date Country Event Period Frequency Unit Previous
22-09-2014 India Output of Crude oil Aug Monthly mln tn 3.15
22-09-2014 India Output of Refinery Aug Monthly mln tn 18.09
22-09-2014 India Output of Natural gas Aug Monthly bln cu m 2.74
22-09-2014 US Chicago Fed National Activity Index Aug, 2014 Monthly
22-09-2014 US Existing Home Sales Aug, 2014 Monthly Million 5.15
23-09-2014 US ICSC-Goldman Store Sales wk9/20, 2014 Weekly
23-09-2014 US Redbook wk9/20, 2014 Weekly
23-09-2014 US FHFA House Price Index Jul, 2014 Monthly
23-09-2014 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (level change) Sep, 2014 Monthly 12
24-09-2014 India 91 day T- Bills auction of Rs 70 bln (cut-off yld) Weekly pct 8.6
24-09-2014 India Reserve Money (change on year) Wk to Sep 19 Weekly pct 7.31
24-09-2014 India 182 days T- Bills auction of Rs 50 bln (cut-off yld) Fortnightly pct 8.71
24-09-2014 Switzerland UBS Consumption Index (Level) Aug, 2014 Monthly 1.66
24-09-2014 US MBA Purchase Applications wk9/19, 2014 Weekly
24-09-2014 US New Home Sales (New Home Sales - Level - SAAR) Aug, 2014 Monthly K 412
24-09-2014 US EIA Petroleum Status Report wk9/19, 2014 Weekly
25-09-2014 European Monetary Union M3 Money Supply (M3-Y/Y) Aug, 2019 Yearly Percent 1.5
25-09-2014 UK CBI Distributive Trades (Level) Sep, 2014 Monthly 37
25-09-2014 US Jobless Claims wk9/20, 2014 Weekly
25-09-2014 US EIA Natural Gas Report wk9/19, 2014 Weekly
26-09-2014 US Money Supply wk9/15, 2014 Weekly
26-09-2014 US Fed Balance Sheet wk9/24, 2014 Weekly
26-09-2014 Japan CPI Aug, 2014 Monthly
26-09-2014 US Consumer Sentiment (Sentiment Index - Level) Sep, 2014 Monthly 84.6
26-09-2014 India WMA (ways and means advance) - to central govt Wk to Sep 19 Weekly Rs bln
26-09-2014 India WMA (ways and means advance) - to state govts Wk to Sep 19 Weekly Rs bln 5.06
26-09-2014 India FX reserve (change on wk) Wk to Sep 19 Weekly $ mln -1615.4
29-09-2014 India IIP Core (YoY Chg) Aug Monthly pct 2.7
29-09-2014 UK M4 Money Supply Aug, 2014 Monthly
29-09-2014 European Monetary Union EC Economic Sentiment (Ec. Sentiment) Sep, 2014 Monthly 100.6
29-09-2014 US Personal Income and Outlays Aug, 2014 Monthly Percent 0.2
29-09-2014 US Pending Home Sales Index Aug, 2014 Monthly Percent 3.3
30-09-2014 India RBI Fourth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement 2014-15
30-09-2014 India CPI-Industrial Workers Aug Monthly pct 7.23
30-09-2014 India Government finances -fiscal deficit Apr-Aug Monthly pct 61.2
RETAIL RESEARCH
12. RETAIL RESEARCH
Relationship among policy rates and benchmarks:
At the Third Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Statement for 2014-15 held on Aug 05, the RBI
kept the Repo and Reverse Repo Rates unchanged at 8.00% and 7.00% respectively. The
RBI reduced the Statutory Liquidity Ratio of scheduled commercial banks by 50bps to
22%. Further, the central bank highlighted the upside risks to inflation in the medium
run. As per the proposals presented by Finance Minister Mr. Arun Jaitley, the gross
borrowings of the government in 2014‐15 are pegged at Rs 6 lakh crore, 6.4% higher
than the level in 2013‐14. It is to be noted that if there is an upward revision in the
borrowing program for this fiscal, then that will impact the bond market putting more
pressure in the yields of the long dated securities.
Deposit vs. Advance Growth (YoY)%
Bank credit growth continued to remain sluggish with addition being a tepid 9.6 per cent
to Rs 61,40,925 crore for the fortnight to September 4, according to data released by the
Reserve Bank of India here today. The demand deposit grew 14.64 per cent to Rs
7,46,002 crore as of September 5 from Rs 6,50,705 crore in the year ago period. Deposits
of commercial banks stood at Rs 71,47,778 crore in the same period last year.
Economy Updates
US Dollar Vs Indian Rupee
The US dollar depreciated against the rupee marginally by 0.05% for the week ended
19th September 2014. The Indian rupee edged up to end on sustained dollar selling by
exporters and capital inflows. A strong dollar overseas and some hesitancy in local
stocks, however, limited the rupee rise.
WPI Inflation (YoY)
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation came in August at a five year low of
3.74% (lower than the 5.19% yoy noted on July month).
13. RETAIL RESEARCH
Corporate Bonds Spread Vs Gilt Securities:
Corporate bond Yields saw a fall across the curve in the last week. However, the one
year AAA credit spreads rose by 11 basis points while 10 year spread fell by 3 basis
points.
Liquidity support from RBI (Bn. Rs)
The liquidity in the banking system hardened last week compared to the previous week.
The net infusion from the LAF window was a daily average of Rs. 14,747 crore for last
week (Rs. 6,193 crore in previous week). The inter-bank call rates traded around 7.83%
levels on Friday. The CBLO rates were positioned at 8.07% level.
Money Stock (M3) (YoY) (%)
India's money supply (y-o-y ) growth at 13.2 percent on September 5 RBI data show. The
reserve money grew 7.3 percent year on year in week to September 12 versus 8.1
percent year ago. The currency in circulation grew 10.6 pct y-o-y in week to September
12 versus 9.8 percent year ago. Currency in circulation up 45.7 billion rupees to 13.52 trln
rupees in week to September 12.
Foreign Exchange Reserves (mn of USD)
India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by $1,327 mn to $317.313 bn for the week ended
Sep 12.
14. RETAIL RESEARCH
Certificates of Deposit (%):
CD rates are trending marginally lower in the recent periods. The CD rates hovered
around 9.05% levels (as per the latest data) (one year CD).
Commercial Paper (%):
Rates of Commercial papers are seen trading lower in the recent periods. The CP rates
are hovering around 9.4% levels (one year maturity CP).
MF’s net investment in Debt (Rs Crs):
Mutual funds had been net buyers in July by buying worth Rs. 17,008 crore while they
remained buyers in Aug by buying worth Rs. 65,649 crore. So far in Sep, mutual funds
have bought debts so far to the tune of Rs. 19,451 crore.
FII’s net investment in Debt (Rs Crs):
FII bought net of Rs. 22,333 crore during July month while they have remained buyers in
Aug by buying debt to the tune of Rs. 17,106 crore. So far in Sep, FII have bought debts
to the tune of Rs. 14,438 crore.
Analyst: Dhuraivel Gunasekaran (dhuraivel.gunasekaran@hdfcsec.com)
RETAIL RESEARCH Fax: (022) 3075 3435
Corporate Office: HDFC Securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building –B, ”Alpha”, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Fax: (022) 30753435 Website: www.hdfcsec.com
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