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HDFC Morning Market Note
1. Retail Research 1
Key Indices Aug 11 % Chg
Sensex 25519 +0.75
Nifty 7702 +1.76
BSE 500 9705 +0.70
DJIA* 16570 +0.10
Nasdaq* 4401 +0.70
MSCI Emerging Markets* 1061 +1.52
MSCI AC Pacific* 143 +1.24
MSCI World* 1702 +0.65
*= in USD
Sectoral Indices Aug 11 % Chg
Major Gainers
BSE AUTO 15957 +2.65
BSE REALTY 1857 +0.96
Major Losers
BSE POWER 2050 -0.48
BSE FMCG 7083 -0.41
Top Gainers
(BSE-100)
CMP (Rs) % Chg
M&M 1308.40 +6.45
Adani Enterprise 479.60 +5.66
M&M Finance 260.15 5.39
Top Losers
(BSE-100)
CMP (Rs) % Chg
GAIL 390.15 -4.34
IDBI Bank 81.10 -2.41
Dr Reddys Lab 2719.65 -2.19
52 Week High Price (Rs)
Amara Raja 535.00
Bosch 14044.00
52 Week Low Price (Rs)
First Leasing 8.66
Aptus Inds 15.60
Turnover (Rs bn) NSE BSE
Aug 11 120.49 19.86
5 days average 142.63 26.36
Advance-Decline NSE BSE
Aug 11 1.53:1 0.60:1
5 days average 0.78:1 0.74:1
Volatility Index (ViX) Nifty CBOE
Aug 11 14.00 14.23
5 days average 14.20 15.84
Net Flows (Cr) Debt FII FII MF
Aug 08 99.2 -467.4 66.7
Cumulative for
Aug -4923.8 +1141.1 2008.4
5 days average -659.2 +450.7 241.3
Interest Rates 3 month Chg bps
MIBOR 8.89 -8.00
10 yr bond yield 8.59 -5.00
LIBOR – UK 0.56 +0.00
LIBOR – USA 0.24 +0.50
LIBOR – Europe 0.17 +0.00
Exchange Rates Value % Chg
USD/INR 61.12 -0.72
USD/EURO 0.75 +0.21
USD/YEN 102.19 +0.16
USD/POUND 0.60 -0.05
Other Value % Chg
RJ/CRB Index 293.81 +0.47
Gold ($ / Oz) 1,310.50 +0.12
Crude Oil ($ / Barrel) 98.08 +0.44
Brent Oil ($ / Barrel) 104.68 -0.32
Market Round Up Aug 12, 2014
Indian Markets
• Markets snapped a three day losing streak on Monday, amid firm global cues, led by auto
shares post upbeat first quarter earnings and encouraging sales growth in July. The 30-share
Sensex ended up 190 points at 25,519 and the 50-share Nifty climbed 57 points to end at
7,626. In the broader market, the BSE Mid-cap index gained 0.5% and Small-cap index
climbed 0.7%.
• NSE cash turnover was Rs.12,016crs. Vs. Rs.13,805crs. in the previous session. The BSE
Auto index was the top sectoral gainer up 2.3% followed by Realty and Capital Goods indices
among others. However, FMCG and Power indices lost 0.4%.
• As per the provisional figures on Monday, FIIs were net sellers of Rs. 162 cr in the cash
market, while they were net buyers of Rs. 234 cr in the F&O markets. DIIs were net buyers of
Rs. 1006 cr in the cash market.
US and European Markets
• U.S. stocks rose, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index its first back-to-back gains in two
weeks, on optimism that tension between Russia and Ukraine will ease and American
airstrikes will push back militants in Iraq.
• The S&P 500 gained 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.1%, to 16,569.98,
trimming earlier gains of 0.5 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.7%.
• European stocks swung higher on Monday, as Russia indicated it will work to ease tensions
over Ukraine. London's benchmark FTSE 100 index won 0.57 % and DAX 30 jumped 1.08 %
to 9,106.67. In Paris the CAC 40 index advanced 0.84 %.
• Barring Dr. Reddy’s, which fell by 2.2%, all the other Indian ADRs ended in the green. Infosys
& Wipro gained 1% & 0.5% respectively. Tata Motors gained 7.5%, while ICICI & HDFC Bank
ended higher by 1% & 1.8% respectively.
Latin American Markets
• Among the Latin American markets, the Mexican markets gained 1.3%, while Brazilian
markets ended higher by 1.8%.
Asian Markets
• The Asian markets are trading on a mix note. Taiwan, Shanghai & Hang Seng are down by
0.1%, 0.6% & 0.2% respectively. However, Nikkei, Strait Times & Kospi are up by 0.3%, 0.3%
& 0.2% respectively.
• As of IST 8.35 am SGX Nifty is trading higher by 36.5 points.
Currencies
• The rupee ended slightly lower on Monday as sentiment remained cautious on concerns
foreign investors would pare some of their domestic equity or debt holdings, but easing global
geopolitical tensions limited the fall.
• The euro fell against the dollar on Monday, giving up Friday's gains, hampered by looming
monetary easing from the European Central Bank and worries about the impact of the Russia-
Ukraine conflict on Germany, the euro zone's largest economy.
Commodities
• Oil for Sept 2014 contract was up 0.44% at $98.08/barrel.
• Gold for Dec 2014 delivery was down 0.04% at $1310.5/troy ounce.
Key Events for today
• US – Chain Store Sales, Redbook, API weekly crude stock
• Japan – Industrial Production, GDP
• China – New Loans
• EU – ZEW Economic Sentiment
• India – IIP for June 2014 (consensus: 5.4% rise Y-o-Y), CPI, manufacturing output
Outlook
Indian markets could open in the green and remain volatile in a range with positive bias
throughout the session. Strong support for Nifty is at 7595 level, while immediate resistance is at
7740 level. Among the sectoral indices, Auto, Banks & Capital Goods could outperform, while
FMCG could underperform.
For fresh and / or open calls refer to page 4
Morning Note
2. Retail Research 2
Technical Analysis – Market Pulse Aug 12, 2014
Sell on Rise!
Day’s action formed a spinning top candle with less volume which indicates tussle between bulls and bears in
the near term.
Technically, index fell from the high of 7841 which is the end of expanding triangle; bears have gained more
than 300 points in the Nifty. Now price has taken support at 7540 which is 50 Day EMA and price has given
response to that EMA. As a response to this the Nifty rose for a day. Another reason for the bounce is to cover
the gap witnessed on last Friday.
Overall no change in our earlier view, index remains in a down trend as it has been forming lower bottoms and
lower tops. The key swing top and the near term & short term trend reversals are placed at 7752 & 7841
respectively; as long as index trades below that, our downward targets of 7442 – 7100 levels are open.
On any move above 7635 index could move to 7680/7700 which is the ideal shorting opportunity with the
stoploss of 7752.Overall the major corrective leg “wave IV” is in progress. This view would come under risk if
index moves above 7752 and the full bearish setup would cancel out if Nifty closes above 7841 levels.
3. Retail Research 3
For forthcoming Board Meeting on Aug 11, 2014
click on the following link
http://www.bseindia.com/mktlive/board_meeting.asp#1
News Flash Aug 12, 2014
Economy News
• As many as 29 hydro power projects with an overall capacity of 10,000 MW are
awaiting appraisal from the Central Water Commission,
• The Reserve Bank will transfer to the Centre its surplus profit of Rs 52,679 crore,
about 60% more than the amount given last year.
• Industrial production in India probably expanded for a third consecutive month in
June driven mainly by solid growth in infrastructure output
Corporate News
• Empee Distilleries, registered a net loss of Rs 2.47 crore for the third quarter
ending June 30.
• Tata Motors consolidated net profit at Rs 5,398 crore for the quarter ended June
2014 It was Rs 1,726 crore during the same quarter a year ago..
• GAIL India Limited got a net profit of Rs 621 crore in Q1 of the current financial
year as as against Rs 808 crore in the same period of last FY.
• Nitta Gelatin India Limited (NGIL), reported a post tax profit of Rs 1.08 crore for
the quarter ended June 30, 2014 after reporting net losses for the three preceding
quarters.
• Steel Authority of India reported 18% increase in net profit for the April-June
quarter at Rs 530 crore on higher sales and realisation.
• Akzo Nobel India reported a 58.51% jump in net profit at Rs 55.18 crore for the
first quarter ended June 30, 2014 on the account of higher other income.
• Bosch posted a 21.85 per cent in its net profit at Rs 306.68 crore for the quarter
ended June 30, 2014.
Bulk Deals
Scrip Name Quantity (in lakhs) Fund Name Price
CMI +0.30 NILESH LAXMICHAND DEDHIA 61.99
EXCAST -0.71 PAYAL JAYESHBHAI MADIYAR 412.99
Key Corporate Action
SCRIP NAME BC/RD
BC/RD
FROM EX-DATE PURPOSE
Ashoka BC 13/8/2014 12/08/2014 AGM, 160% Final Dividend
HPCL BC 14/08/2014 12/08/2014 AGM, 155% Final Dividend
IL&FS Transport BC 14/08/2014 12/08/2014 AGM, 40% Final Dividend
Panam Petro BC 14/08/2014 12/08/2014 AGM, 60% Dividend
Priya Ltd BC 14/08/2014 12/08/2014 AGM, 10% Dividend
Shilpi Cable BC 14/08/2014 12/08/2014 AGM, 10% Final Dividend
Suraj Ltd BC 14/08/2014 12/08/2014 AGM, 150% Final Dividend
Uttam Value BC 14/08/2014 12/08/2014 AGM, 10% Interim Dividend
4. Retail Research 4
Stock Ideas Aug 12, 2014
Update of Index Futures
Date B/S Positional Call Entry at Sloss Targets
Exit
Price /
CMP Exit Date
%
G/L Comments
Time
Horizon
Avg.
Entry
Abs.
Gain/Loss
11-Aug-14 B Nifty Future 7644.95 7608.0 7700.0 7644.4 0.0 Hold 2-3 days 7645.0 -0.6
8-Aug-14 B BANK Nifty Future 14786.5 14699.0 14940.0 14856.0 8-Aug-14 0.5 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 14786.5 69.5
6-Aug-14 S Nifty Aug Fut 7724.9 7760.0 7670.0 7705.0 6 Aug 14 0.3 Premature Profit Booked 1-5 days 7724.9 19.9
4-Aug-14 B Nifty Aug Fut 7710 7660.0 7810.0 7738.0 5 Aug 14 0.4 Premature Profit Booked 1-5 days 7710.0 28.0
Update of Stock and Nifty Options Calls:
Date B/S Positional Call Entry at Sloss Targets
Exit
Price /
CMP Exit Date % G/L Comments
Time
Horizon
Avg.
Entry
Abs.
Gain/Loss
8-Aug-14 B LT 1400 Aug Puts 19.9 12.0 36.0 13.6 11 Aug 14 -31.7 Premature Exit 1-5 days 19.9 -6.3
8-Aug-14 B DLF 190 Call 5.2 3.5 10.0 6.2 8-Aug-14 19.2 Premature Profit Booked 5.2 1.0
5 Aug 14 B Buy Tata Motors Aug 450 Calls 18.45 12.8 33.0 13.6 7 Aug 14 -26.6 Premature Exit 1-5 days 18.45 -4.9
4 Aug 14 B Cairn 320 Call 7.85 5.3 15.0 5.3 8-Aug-14 -32.5 Stop Loss Triggered 1-5 Days 7.85 -2.6
Update of Momentum / Intra Day/Futures Calls:
Date B/S Positional Call Entry at Sloss Targets
Exit
Price /
CMP Exit Date
%
G/L Comments
Time
Horizon
Avg.
Entry
Abs.
Gain/Loss
11 Aug 14 B M&M Fin 254.5-248 243.0 270.0 259.8 11 Aug 14 2.1 Premature Profit Booked 3-7 Days 254.50 5.3
11-Aug-14 B IL & FS Tran 213.40 205.0 227.0 214.5 0.5 Hold 2-3 days 213.40 1.1
8-Aug-14 B Fedder Lloyd 91.50 86.0 100.0 86.0 11 Aug 14 -6.0 Stop Loss Triggered 91.50 -5.5
8-Aug-14 B Aurion Pro 304, 314.85 298.0 350.0 326.0 8-Aug-14 3.5 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 314.85 11.2
8-Aug-14 B Wondrela 220.60 214.0 237.0 231.6 8-Aug-14 5.0 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 220.60 11.0
8-Aug-14 S Rec Fut 295.30 306.0 272.0 294.7 0.2 Hold 1-5 days 295.30 0.6
7-Aug-14 B JSL 52.90 49.0 58.0 49.0 8-Aug-14 -7.4 Stop Loss Triggered 2-3 days 52.90 -3.9
7-Aug-14 B Kopran 53.50 50.5 60.0 55.0 7-Aug-14 2.7 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 53.50 1.5
7-Aug-14 B Axis IT 121.00 115.0 130.0 115.0 7-Aug-14 -5.0 Stop Loss Triggered 2-3 days 121.00 -6.0
7-Aug-14 S AL Bank Fut 118.65 123.0 107.0 120.3 -1.4 Hold 1-5 days 118.65 -1.6
6-Aug-14 B Chennaipetro 88.65 85.0 97.8 92.4 8-Aug-14 4.2 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 88.65 3.8
6-Aug-14 B Cosmo Films 82.50 79.0 89.0 81.2 7-Aug-14 -1.6 Exit 2-3 days 82.50 -1.3
6-Aug-14 B Bindal Agro 33.00 31.0 37.8 33.2 7-Aug-14 0.6 Premature Exit 2-3 days 33.00 0.2
6-Aug-14 B Munjal Showa 140, 146 137.0 160.0 153.5 6-Aug-14 5.1 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 146.00 7.5
6-Aug-14 B Naukri 725.35 695.0 800.0 748.0 6-Aug-14 3.1 Premature Profit Booked 1-5 days 725.35 22.7
5-Aug-14 B Seamec Ltd 107, 112.90 104.0 127.5 104.0 8-Aug-14 -5.4 Stop Loss Triggered 2-3 days 109.95 -6.0
5-Aug-14 B Ranbaxy 569.00 555.0 620.0 558.0 7-Aug-14 -1.9 Premature Exit 1-5 days 569.00 11.0
5-Aug-14 B Jindal Poly 266.45 262.0 280.0 274.7 6-Aug-14 3.1 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 266.45 8.3
5-Aug-14 B Aarti Ind 228, 237.70 223.5 255.0 244.7 6-Aug-14 2.9 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 237.70 7.0
5-Aug-14 B JK Lashmi Cement 277.00 271.0 290.0 271.0 5-Aug-14 -2.2 Stop Loss Triggered 2-3 days 277.00 -6.0
5-Aug-14 B DCM Shreeram 183.00 174.0 195.0 191.3 5-Aug-14 4.5 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 183.00 8.3
4 Aug 14 B Gitanjali Gems 71.15 - 69.5 67.9 78.0 67.9 8-Aug-14 -3.4 Stop Loss Triggered 3-7 Days 70.30 -2.4
4 Aug 14 B U Flex 129.25 122.0 146.0 133.7 6-Aug-14 3.4 Premature Profit Booked 1-5 days 129.25 4.4
4-Aug-14 B Jindal Steel 271.90 264.0 284.0 276.4 5-Aug-14 1.7 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 271.90 4.5
4-Aug-14 B Bank of India 277.75 269.0 287.0 280.9 5-Aug-14 1.1 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 277.75 3.1
4 Aug 14 B Eros Media 225.50 218.0 245.0 220.0 5-Aug-14 -2.4 Exit Called 1-5 days 225.50 -5.5
1-Aug-14 B Kolte Patil 149, 155.45 145.0 168.0 159.5 5-Aug-14 4.8 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 152.20 7.3
1-Aug-14 B Tata Sponge 894.50 867.0 975.0 915.0 5-Aug-14 2.3 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 894.50 20.5
23-Jul-14 B Vakaragee 137, 144.5 134.0 160.0 134.0 8-Aug-14 -4.8 Stop Loss Triggered 2-3 days 140.75 -6.8
10-Jul-14 B Jain Irrigation Fut 118.3 112 130 114.9 -2.7 Hold 7-Days 118.1 -3.2
8 Jul 14 B TV 18 Broadcast 32 30 36 31.2 -2.5 Hold 7-Days 32 -0.8
Update of Positional Calls:
Date B/S Positional Call Entry at Sloss Targets
Exit
Price /
CMP Exit Date
%
G/L Comments
Time
Horizon
Avg.
Entry
Abs.
Gain/Loss
7-Aug-14 B ACC 1400, 1458.5 1350.0 2000.0 1444.1 -1.0 Hold 5-7 days
1,458.5
0 -14.4
6 Aug 14 B BHEL 234.00 222.0 260.0 222.0 8-Aug-14 -5.1 Stop Loss Triggered 5-7 days 234.00 -12.0
1 Aug 14 S TATA Power Aug Fut. 97.25 88.0 105.0 92.2 11-Aug-14 5.5 Premature Profit Booked 3-10 Days 97.25 5.1
25 Jul 14 S IRB Infra Aug Fut. 251.60 266.0 206.0 266.0 5-Aug-14 -5.4 Stop Loss Triggered 2 Weeks 251.60 -14.4
23-Jul-14 B Infy 3,307.00 3165.0 3800.0 3579.2 8.2 Hold 40-75 days 3,307.0 272.2
5. Retail Research 5
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