- Key Indian indices ended lower, with the Sensex down 0.71% and Nifty down 0.68%. US markets closed higher, with the Dow up 0.36%.
- Among sectors, BSE Metal lost the most at 1.89% while FMCG gained 0.08%. Top gainers were Glenmark and NTPC, top losers were RCom and HCL Tech.
- The rupee lost 3 paise against the dollar. Oil prices gained 3.4% while gold ended marginally lower. Asian markets are mixed in early trade.
Law of Demand.pptxnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
Hdfc morning note
1. Retail Research 1
Key Indices Dec 23 % Chg
Sensex 27506 -0.71
Nifty 8267 -0.68
BSE 500 10610 -0.59
DJIA* 18024 +0.36
Nasdaq* 4765 -0.33
MSCI Emerging Markets* 951 -0.59
MSCI AC Pacific* 134 -0.73
MSCI World* 1724 +0.05
*= in USD
Sectoral Indices Dec 23 % Chg
Major Gainers
BSE FMCG 7828 +0.08
Major Losers
BSE Metal 10550 -1.89
BSE CG 15187 -1.46
Top Gainers
(BSE-100)
CMP (Rs) % Chg
GLENMARK 796.15 +3.31
NTPC 142.80 +2.88
POWERGRID 139.30 +2.05
Top Losers
(BSE-100)
CMP (Rs) % Chg
RCOM 79.20 -3.65
HCLTECH 1536.10 -3.20
SIEMENS 844.05 -3.19
52 Week High Price (Rs)
BAJFINANCE 3500.00
ARCPR 475.00
52 Week Low Price (Rs)
CML 171.05
EMEDTECH 23.15
Turnover (Rs bn) NSE BSE
Dec 23 136.30 25.23
5 days average 161.94 31.13
Advance-Decline NSE BSE
Dec 23 0.48:1 0.57:1
5 days average 2.85:1 1.49:1
Volatility Index (ViX) Nifty CBOE
Dec 23 15.30 14.80
5 days average 15.31 17.90
Net Flows (Cr) Debt FII FII MF
Dec 22 118.1 -289.9 -
Cumulative for
Dec 11627.5 -282.0 -
5 days average 288.2 -905.9 -
Interest Rates 3 month Chg bps
MIBOR 8.67 0.00
10 yr bond yield 7.92 -4.00
LIBOR – UK 0.56 0.00
LIBOR – USA 0.26 0.00
LIBOR – Europe 0.06 0.00
Exchange Rates Value % Chg
USD/INR 63.45 +0.43
USD/EURO 0.82 +0.43
USD/YEN 120.80 +0.61
USD/POUND 0.64 +0.48
Other# Value % Chg
RJ/CRB Index 238.61 +0.85
Gold ($ / Oz) 1178.00 -0.15
Crude Oil ($ / Barrel) 57.12 +3.37
Brent Oil ($ / Barrel) - -
Market Round Up Dec 24, 2014
Indian Markets
The 30-share Sensex ended 195 points lower at 27,506, while the 50-share Nifty
closed down 57 points at 8,267. In the broader market, BSE midcap index performed
better than the front-liners with a loss of 0.3% while BSE smallcap index
underperformed with a loss of around 0.6%. Market breadth in BSE ended weak with
1,850 declines against 1,072 advances. NSE cash turnover was at Rs. 13498.
All the sectoral indices ended weak. BSE Metal index, down around 2%, lost the most
followed by BSE Consumer Durables and Capital Goods indices which lost around
1.4% each. However, a handful of stocks stood out for their positive performance in a
dull market. NTPC gained around 3%. Cipla gained around 2%. Bajaj Auto gained
around 2%. ICICI Bank lost more than 1.5% while Axis Bank lost around 06% and SBI
lost 0.3%. RIL and ONGC lost more than 1% each while GAIL ended higher by 0.3%.
As per the provisional figures on Tuesday, FIIs were net sellers of Rs. 445 cr in the
cash market, while they were net buyers of Rs. 2364 cr in the F&O markets. DIIs were
net buyers of Rs. 516 cr in the cash market.
US and European Markets
The Dow Jones closed above 18000 for the first time on Tuesday after data showed
the U.S. economy posted its strongest growth in more than a decade. The blue-chip
index climbed 64.73 points, or 0.4%, to 18024.17, marking its 36th record for the year.
The S&P 500 index added 3.63 points, or 0.2%, to 2082.17, notching its 51st closing
high of 2014. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite fell 16 points, or 0.3%, to 4765.42,
dragged down by broad declines in health-care stocks. The iShares Nasdaq
Biotechnology exchange-traded fund fell 4.7%.
European markets ended higher. The FTSE 100 gained 0.3%, while CAC 40 & DAX
gained 1.4% & 0.6% respectively.
Most of the Indian ADRs ended on a negative note. Software majors Infosys & Wipro
were down 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. Banking stocks HDFC Bank & ICICI Bank
were each down 0.4%. Tata Motors was down 1.4% while Dr Reddy’s was down 0.9%.
Latin American Markets
Among the Latin American markets, the Mexican markets gained 0.6%, while the
Brazilian index ended higher by 1.5%.
Asian Markets
Asian markets are mixed. The Shanghai Composite is lower by 1.51% while the Hang
Seng is even. The Nikkei 225 is not trading.
As of IST 8.35 am SGX Nifty is trading higher by 3.5 points.
Currencies
The Indian rupee lost three paise against the US dollar to 63.28 due to sustained
capital outflows and fresh demand for the US currency from banks and importers.
A gauge of the dollar climbed to a five-year high after the economy expanded at the
fastest pace in more than a decade, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to
raise interest rates. The greenback advanced for a fifth day against the yen as
consumer spending accelerated more than estimated.
Commodities
Oil for Feb 2015 contract gained 3.4% at $57.1/barrel.
Gold for Feb 2015 delivery ended marginally lower by 0.2% at $1178/troy ounce.
Key Events for Today
India – M3 money supply
US – Continuing & Initial Jobless claims, Crude Oil inventories
Outlook
Indian markets could open flat and remain range-bound with a positive bias. Immediate
support for Nifty is at 8205 level, while immediate resistance is at 8375 level. Among the
sectoral indices, Pharma, Capital Goods, FMCG could relatively outperform while IT may
underperform.
For fresh and / or open calls refer to page 4
Morning Note
2. Retail Research 2
Technical Analysis – Market Pulse Dec 24, 2014
Observation
The smart upmove of the last three sessions seems to have ended yesterday as Nifty reversed sharply from the minor swing highs
of around 8364 levels.
Nifty opened yesterday with flat note and made an attempt to move up during morning session. It made a swing high of around 8364
levels and slipped into sharp intraday decline during afternoon to the close of yesterday’s session.
The reversal of yesterday’s session has occurred from near the key overhead resistance of around 8373 levels, which is 61.8%
retracement of the high low range of 8626-7961 levels. This is going to be interesting with regards to a short term uptrend of Nifty.
Yesterday’s weakness is indicating a strong counter attack of bears from the higher levels and this reversal pattern opens up the
possibility of either new lower top of previous sharp decline or a process of forming new higher bottom of the recent advance, in the
next couple of sessions.
The daily short term momentum oscillator like 8 period ROC is in the process of turning down from near the equilibrium line (middle
line). This is signaling weakening of upside momentum for short term.
Conclusion& Strategy
The underlying short term trend of Nifty seems to have reversed yesterday from near the crucial overhead resistance of around
8373 levels.
The crucial immediate supports are placed around 8205-8175 levels, which are going to be tested in the next couple of sessions.
However, the important resistance is placed around 8365-75 levels.
Nifty Perspective Support Resistance
8267 Negative 8205-8175 8375
Nifty Trend Target Reversal
Near Term (1 day) Down 8205 8365
Short Term (7-21 days) - - -
3. Retail Research 3
For forthcoming Board Meeting on Dec 24, 2014
click on the following link
http://www.bseindia.com/mktlive/board_meeting.asp#1
News Flash Dec 24, 2014
Economy News
Coffee exporters have favoured routing exports to Russia under the rupee-rouble
trade arrangement. Several coffee exporters from India have postponed their
consignments to Russia due to rouble crisis which has depreciated 50 per cent in the
last two quarters.
The finance ministry has rejected Cochin Port Trust’s demand that a Rs 729-crore
interest on a Rs 258-crore loan outstanding for decades be waived.
Corporate News
Cipla Medpro, the South African subsidiary of Cipla, has been awarded Rs 1,100
crore (R 2 billion) worth order of the South African Government's 2015-17 National
ARV tender. The contract is effective from the 1st of April 2015 and will run for a
period of three years.
NTPC has emerged as the only bidder for the Cheyyur Ultra Mega Power Project
(UMPP) in Tamil Nadu. The other seven potential bidders, all from the private sector,
withdrew from the race citing regulatory issues in the bidding format.
Jet Airways (India) successfully concluding a five-year syndicated loan facility of
USD 150 million in the Gulf. The airline company said the transaction was fully
subscribed by banks spread across the Middle East region, from Dubai, Abu Dhabi,
Bahrain and Doha-based financial institutions.
Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals it has fund raising plans to ease out debts.
As part of its corporate debt restructuring (CDR) scheme, the company has allotted
1.48 crore shares at Rs 49.79 per share on preferential basis to its promoter group
company Orchid Healthcare.
Gujarat Pipavav Port entered into an arrangement with NYK Auto Logistics (India).
Videocon announced its fund raising plans via global depository receipts (GDR).
Speaking about the GDR, which amounts to USD 45.216 million to be issued to LLIC,
Venugopal Dhoot, chairman and managing director, Videocon, says the investment
firm has been very bullish on the company and has hence been looking to shore up
stake even further.
Bulk Deals
Scrip Name Quantity (in lakhs) Fund Name Price
TRANSPEK +2.60 GANDIV INVESTMENT PVT. LTD. 330.99
INTELLECT +5.32 FRANKLIN MUTUAL SERIES FUNDS MUTUAL BEACON FUND 78.76
Key Corporate Action
SCRIP NAME BC/RD
BC/RD
FROM EX-DATE PURPOSE
Ahmednagar Forging BC 27/12/2014 24/12/2014 AGM, 10% Dividend
Amtek Auto BC 29/12/2014 24/12/2014 AGM, 25% Dividend
Amket India BC 29/12/2014 24/12/2014 AGM, 5% Dividend
Info Drive RD 26/12/2014 24/12/2014 Stock split from Rs.10 to Rs.1
Omansh RD 26/12/2014 24/12/2014 Stock split from Rs.10 to Rs.2
SBL RD 26/12/2014 24/12/2014 Stock split from Rs.10 to Rs.1
Simplex Trade RD 26/12/2014 24/12/2014 09:01 Bonus Issue
4. Retail Research 4
Stock Ideas Dec 24, 2014
Update of Index Futures
Date B/S Positional Call Entry at Sloss Targets
Exit
Price /
CMP Exit Date
%
G/L Comments
Time
Horizon
Avg.
Entry
Abs.
Gain/Loss
23-Dec-14 B Nifty Dec Future
8350-
8335 8315 8410 8315 23-Dec-14 -0.3 Stop Loss Triggered 2 days 8342.5 -27.5
22-Dec-14 B Nifty Dec Future
8251-
8238 8215 8315 8300 22-Dec-14 0.6 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 8251 49.0
Update of Stock and Nifty Options Calls:
Date B/S Positional Call Entry at Sloss Targets
Exit
Price /
CMP Exit Date % G/L Comments
Time
Horizon
Avg.
Entry
Abs.
Gain/Loss
23-Dec-14 B Axis Bank 500 Call 1.55 0.9 3.5 2.3 23-Dec-14 48.4 Premature Profit Booked 1-2 days 1.55 0.8
23-Dec-14 B ICICI Bank 355 Put Option 1.80 1.0 5.0 1.0 23-Dec-14 -47.2 Stop Loss Triggered 2-3 days 1.80 -0.9
22-Dec-14 B ONGC 360 Call Option 2.30 1.4 4.4 2.90 22-Dec-14 26.1 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 2.30 0.6
22-Dec-14 B SKS Micro Finance 390 Put Option 3.40 1.9 10.0 2.05 22-Dec-14 -39.7 Premature Exit 2-3 days 3.40 -1.4
22-Dec-14 B Asian Paints 750 Call 5.35 2.8 15.0 9.00 22-Dec-14 68.2 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 5.35 3.7
22-Dec-14 B SKS Micro Finance 400 Call Option 5.50 2.5 10.0 8.20 22-Dec-14 49.1 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 5.50 2.7
19-Dec-14 B ICICI Bank 350 Put 2.20 1.4 6.0 5.40 22-Dec-14 145.5 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 2.20 3.2
19-Dec-14 B Tata Motors Jan 500 Call 15-18 12.6 30.0 12.60 22-Dec-14 -23.6 Stop Loss Triggered 1-5 days 16.50 -3.9
19-Dec-14 B Tata Steel Dec 410 Call 7.10 4.3 15.0 4.80 19-Dec-14 -32.4 Premature Exit 1-5 days 7.10 -2.3
18-Dec-14 B Reliance Cap 500 Call 9.90 6.0 20.0 13.60 19-Dec-14 37.4 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 9.90 3.7
18-Dec-14 B Nifty Dec 8200 Call 36-44.5 25.0 80.0 63.10 19-Dec-14 41.8 Premature Profit Booked 1-5 Days 44.50 18.6
18-Dec-14 B Ultratech Cem 2400 Put 19.00 12.0 35.0 19.00 18-Dec-14 0.0 Premature Exit 1-5 Days 19.00 0.0
18-Dec-14 B Arvind 270 Call 3.10 1.8 6.0 5.00 18-Dec-14 61.3 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 3.10 1.9
18-Dec-14 B NMDC 140 Call 2.00 1.2 5.0 2.65 18-Dec-14 32.5 Premature Profit Booked 1-5 Days 2.00 0.7
17-Dec-14 B Uco Bank 80 Call 1.2 0.65 3 2 18-Dec-14 66.7 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 1.2 0.8
Update of Momentum / Intra Day/Futures Calls:
Date B/S Positional Call Entry at Sloss Targets
Exit
Price /
CMP Exit Date
%
G/L Comments
Time
Horizon
Avg.
Entry
Abs.
Gain/Loss
23-Dec-14 B KSL 156.2 150.0 170.0 162.35 23-Dec-14 3.9 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 156.2 6.2
23-Dec-14 B Torrent Power 170.4 163.5 184.0 171.85 23-Dec-14 0.9 Premature Profit Booked 3-5 Days 170.4 1.4
23-Dec-14 S Amtek Auto Jan Fut 176.1 183.0 165.0 175.45 0.4 Hold 3-5 days 176.1 0.7
23-Dec-14 S Karnataka Bank Fut 141.15-142.5 146.5 131.0 141.8 0.0 Hold 3-5 days 141.83 0.0
23-Dec-14 B Bata India 1280-1310 1270.0 1400.0 1298.35 -0.9 Hold 1-5 Days 1310 -11.7
23-Dec-14 B Ashoka Buildcon 140.65 135.0 157.0 139.35 -0.9 Hold 2-3 days 140.65 -1.3
23-Dec-14 B Lovable 380.1-372 366.0 400.0 381.95 0.5 Hold 2-3 days 380.1 1.8
22-Dec-14 B Shasun Pharma 270.2 264.0 285.0 275.4 23-Dec-14 1.9 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 270.2 5.2
22-Dec-14 S Reliance Capital Fut 488.50-493 503.0 462.0 495.8 22-Dec-14 -1.0 Premature Exit 3 days 490.75 -5.1
22-Dec-14 B Gitanjali Gems 53-55.20 51.0 65.0 53.55 -3.0 Hold 1-5 Days 55.2 -1.7
19-Dec-14 B Sharda Crop Chem 252.65 246.0 267.0 257.4 23-Dec-14 1.9 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 252.65 4.7
19-Dec-14 B Voltas 245-252.9 239.0 280.0 243.65 23-Dec-14 -3.7 Premature Exit 1-5 Days 252.9 -9.3
19-Dec-14 B Schneider 156.3 150.0 165.0 150 22-Dec-14 -4.0 Stop loss Triggered 3-5 Days 156.3 -6.3
19-Dec-14 B Persistent Systems 1622-1600 1565.0 1750.0 1596.2 22-Dec-14 -0.9 Premature Exit 3-5 Days 1611 -14.8
19-Dec-14 B Just Dial 1280-1336.4 1250.0 1520.0 1375 19-Dec-14 2.9 Premature Profit Booked 1-5 Days 1336.4 38.6
19-Dec-14 B Opto Circuits 23.5-22.8 22.0 26.0 22.85 -1.3 Hold 3-7 Days 23.15 -0.3
18-Dec-14 B Talwalkar 273.8 264.0 291.0 284 22-Dec-14 3.7 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 273.8 10.2
18-Dec-14 B Eicher Motors 14400-14490 13800.0 16000.0 14774.9 19-Dec-14 2.0 Premature Profit Booked 3-5 Days 14490 284.9
18-Dec-14 B Dolphin Offshore 177.95 170.0 192.0 177.45 19-Dec-14 -0.3 Premature Exit 3-5 Days 177.95 -0.5
18-Dec-14 B Igarshi Motors 284 272.0 297.0 292.95 19-Dec-14 3.2 Premature Profit Booked 5-7 days 284 8.9
18-Dec-14 B Welcorp 67 64.9 71.3 69.45 19-Dec-14 3.7 Premature Profit Booked 3-5 Days 67 2.5
18-Dec-14 B HPCL 558-567.2 545.0 615.0 578.55 18-Dec-14 2.0 Premature Profit Booked 1-5 days 567.2 11.3
18-Dec-14 B Jyothi Labs 252-240 238.0 264.0 248.25 -1.5 Hold 5-7 days 252 -3.8
17-Dec-14 B ESCORTS 120.70-119 116.0 129.0 125.3 18-Dec-14 3.8 Premature Profit Booked 3-5 Days 120.7 4.6
16-Dec-14 S PNB Fut 215.04-220 225.0 192.0 225.0 18-Dec-14 -3.3 Stop loss Triggered 1-5 days 217.52 -7.5
15-Dec-14 B Datamatics 73.5, 76.55 71.50 84.00 78.00 22-Dec-14 4.0 Premature Profit Booked 2-3 days 75.03 2.97
2-Dec-14 B Hindustan Tin 101.50 97.45 114.00 99.70 -1.8 Hold 2-3 days 101.50 -1.8
Update of Positional Calls:
Date B/S Positional Call Entry at Sloss Targets
Exit
Price /
CMP Exit Date
%
G/L Comments
Time
Horizon
Avg.
Entry
Abs.
Gain/Loss
23-Dec-14 B RS Software 505.5-494 486.0 575.0 507.35 0.4 Hold 5-7 days 505.5 1.9
19-Dec-14 B JBF Ind 254.5-251 244.0 275.0 244.0 23-Dec-14 -4.1 Stop loss Triggered 5 Days 254.50 -10.5
19-Dec-14 B Rallis 215.05-212 207.0 232.0 212.6 -1.1 Hold 5 days 215.05 -2.5
18-Dec-14 B Motherson Sumi 421.4-418 405.0 455.0 448.0 19-Dec-14 6.3 Premature Profit Booked 5 Days 421.40 26.6
18-Dec-14 B Torrent Power 166.00 160.0 185.0 177.3 18-Dec-14 6.8 Premature Profit Booked 3-7 Days 166.00 11.3
17-Dec-14 B Sks Microfin 360, 368.50 352.5 400.0 383.8 18-Dec-14 5.4 Premature Profit Booked 5-7 days 364.25 19.6
17-Dec-14 S Engineers Ind Dec Fut 213-216 221.0 199.0 213.5 18-Dec-14 -0.2 Premature Exit 3-5 Days 213.00 -0.5
5. Retail Research 5
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building –B, ”Alpha”, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station,
Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Fax: (022) 30753435
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by HDFC securities Limited and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This
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buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it
should not be relied upon as such. We may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may
from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this document. This report is
intended for Retail Clients only and not for any other category of clients, including, but not limited to, Institutional Clients
This report has been prepared by the Retail Research team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry
prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with those of the other Research teams
(Institutional, PCG) of HDFC Securities Ltd.