Presentation by Delia Grace at the first United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Science-Policy Forum ahead of the Second Session of the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA-2), Nairobi, Kenya, 20 May 2016.

1. Zoonoses and emerging infectious diseases
Delia Grace
Program Leader, Food Safety and Zoonoses
International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya
Science-Policy Forum
Second session of the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA‐2)
Nairobi, Kenya, 20 May 2016

2. Overview
• Zoonoses: the lethal gifts of livestock and wildlife
– Emerging infectious disease
– Neglected zoonoses
– Costs of disease
• Drivers of disease
– Demography and increasing demands
– Land use change and environmental degradation
• One Health solutions for zoonoses
– Understanding disease
– Surveillance and response
– Addressing underlying causes

3. Where do we get our diseases?
• Few are Legacies
– Paleolithic baseline: yaws, staph, pinworms, lice, typhoid, tb
• Most are Earned
– Degenerative diseases: heart failure, stroke, diabetes, cancer
– Allergies, asthma, autoimmune diseases
– Sexually transmitted infections such as HSV-2, gonorrhea
• Many are Souvenirs
– Around 60% of human diseases shared with animals
– 75% of emerging infectious disease zoonotic

4. Secondary
Host (livestock)
Secondary
Host
(human)
Reservoir
Host (wildlife)
Vector
Sylvatic cycle
Sustained transmission:
- peri-domestic or urban cycle
- sub-clinical, epidemic, pandemic
Type of pathogen: mutation,
heterogeneity, host specificity
Habitat change
Biodiversity
Host density
Vector density
Spillover! •Increasing human
population and density
•Human behaviour
•Expansion of agriculture
•Intensification of livestock
production
Pathogen flow
Spill-over
Spill-over
Spill-over

6. 6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Costs of prevention
(investments in animal
and human health
systems)
Benefits from averted mild
pandemic
Benefits from averted
severe pandemic
$billionperyear
Annual expected benefits of prevention of
pandemic and non-pandemic outbreaks
6.7 b
6.7b
Source World Bank 2012

7. 7
Economic costs
Young girl presenting her pet chicken to culling team during a mass
cull, Indramayu District January 2006. Photo by Peter Roeder.

8. • Unlucky 13 zoonoses sicken 2.4 billion
people, kill 2.2 million people and affect
more than 1 in 7 livestock each year
Greatest burden of endemic zoonoses falls
on on billion poor livestock keepers

9. Livestock disease huge burden
9
Young Adult
Cattle 22% 6%
Shoat 28% 11%
Poultry 70% 30%
Source: Otte & Chilonda; IAEA
Annual mortality of African livestock

10. Overview
• Zoonoses: the lethal gifts of livestock
– Emerging infectious disease
– Neglected zoonoses
– Costs of disease
• Drivers of disease
– Demography and increasing demands
– Land use change and environmental degradation
• One Health solutions for zoonoses
– Understanding disease
– Surveillance and response
– Addressing underlying causes

11. Exponential population growth
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
-12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000
Global population (millions)

12. Global contexts – livestock domains
Adapted from Smith J 2011
Food and
Nutrition
Security
Human and
Animal
Health
Poverty
Reduction
and Growth
Natural
Resource
Management
Climatechange
(temperaturestoriseby1-3.5°Cby2100)
Landusechange
Urbanization/irrigation
Biodiversity change
Environmental degradation
Feeding the world
(2.5 billion more to feed by 2050)

13. 13

14. Overview
• Zoonoses: the lethal gifts of livestock
– Emerging infectious disease
– Neglected zoonoses
– Costs of disease
• Drivers of disease
– Demography and increasing demands
– Land use change and environmental degradation
• One Health solutions for zoonoses
– Understanding disease
– Surveillance and response
– Addressing underlying causes

15. 15
Human
health
Societies, cultures,
Economies, institutions
Policies
Agroecosystem
health
Animal
Health
Vet
Pub
Health
EcoHealth
One
medicine
ONE HEALTH
Wildlife
health
Plant health

16. Potential RVF hotspots in eastern Africa
Kenya Tanzania

17. Timely responses to reduce impacts
• Surveillance and response in animal hosts can reduce
costs by 90%
Adapted from IOM 2009

18. 18

20. Agriculture Associated Diseases
http://aghealth.wordpress.com/