Horngren’s Cost Accounting A Managerial Emphasis, Canadian 9th edition soluti...
14 msangi impact_livestock
1. Livestock within a multi-market modeling
framework: the example of IMPACT
Siwa Msangi, Dolapo Enahoro
An Notenbaert, Mario Herrero, Signe Nelgen
Petr Havlik
Conference on Mainstreaming Livestock Value Chains, Section 4: Data and Tools
Best Western Premier Airport Hotel, Accra , Ghana.
5-6 Nov, 2013
2. Livestock in the context of global agriculture
The challenge of modeling global agriculture comes
from:
• Representing the various linkages between markets – in
terms of consumer choice behavior, linkages b/w output
markets & important mkt inputs (e.g. labor, fertilizer)
• Accounting for the scarcity of important inputs into
production (land, water, feed, etc) – in quantity terms
• Adequately representing the producer decisions and
objectives (profit maximize/cost minimize/stock-holding)
• Representing the heterogeneity of production systems
• Differentiating behaviors for annual vs perennial activities
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3. Improving livestock representation in IMPACT
Starting from the IFPRI IMPACT model – we have been
working to improve the representation of livestock – in a
way that addresses these challenges
Have undertaken this in a number of steps
• Disaggregate livestock production across systems
• Capture differences in feed requirements across these
systems
• Link the availability of these feeds to what is available on
the landscape or what can be obtained through markets
Has been a step-wise process, that has required rethinking some key aspects of how livestock is modeled
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7. Key components of livestock modeling
Demand-side factors are similar to those for other nonlivestock commodities.
Food demand is mainly driven by
• Per-capita income growth
• Population
• Urbanization (and other preference shifters)
Feed demand occurs for marketed and non-marketed
feed products – whereas we observe marketed feeds in
data, we have to calculate the non-marketed feed uses
This is often where FAOSTAT data do not agree with the
feed demands derived from biophysical requirements for
animal growth
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9. Key components of livestock modeling
The supply-side of agricultural markets are driven by both
biophysical & economic drivers of change
Biophysical components relate to
• Climate (temp, water) – determine biological stress
• Soil quality – matters to vegetative growth (grasslands)
• Animal growth and nutrient requirements
Economic factors relate to
Technological change (productivity, efficiency)
System change (extensive -> mixed -> intensive)
Animal numbers – monogastrics are annual activities,
whereas ruminants have herd dynamics that reflect
producer decisions and biophysical determinants
Yield per animal – relates to feed (availability & practices)
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10. Key components of livestock modeling
The key decisions we should model for livestock are:
• Feed mix (across marketed & non-marketed feeds)
• Stocking rates (has an implicit land use dimension)
• Off-take and cull
The land use dimensions of livestock are complex and
differ across systems (which we don’t capture well)
Extensive systems – needs to be explicit
Mixed systems – depends on prodn of crop residues &
availability of other supplementary feeds
Intensive systems – has no explicit LU dimension
The land use dimensions of transhumance are entirely
missed in much of the macro-modeling that is done
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11. Breakdown of Livestock Feed
Demand for pasture & grass expected to grow the fastest
IMPACT model (2013)
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12. Aquaculture Now a Major Meat Sector
In only 20 years, aquaculture has grown to nearly
match the share of beef in global meat production
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13. Aquaculture: Fastest Growing Food Sector
Growth of aquaculture almost 2x as fast as other
food/meat sectors
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14. Changes in Global Use of Fishmeal for Feed
Aquaculture ‘crowding out’ livestock for fishmeal feed use
Fishmeal and protein meals are substitutable, but with limits
Livestock (esp poultry) have been able to find substitutes for
fishmeal more easily compared to fish
Source: Shepherd (2012)
15. Global Demand for Fishmeal from
Livestock and Aquaculture
IMPACT model (2013)
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16. Feed sourcing from co-products
Important co-products from industrial processes like
biofuels production will continue to be used as feed
IMPACT model (2013)
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17. The importance of co-products
The future success of the bioeconomy depends on the
added-value of co-products derived from chemical
conversion processes (e.g. DDGS from biofuels) – for
use in important sectors such as livestock
When ‘by-products’ become ‘co-products’ (i.e.
something to be used rather than disposed of) – then
the commercial potential & profitability improves
The failure of jatropha to take off is due to low yields as
well as limited co-product value for uses in animal feed
(compared to other oilseeds) – needs more R&D
The processing waste from fish food preparation will
become increasingly valuable source of feed for fish
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18. Summary & Implications for Policy
The future for livestock (and fish) depends heavily
on the ability to manage feed & disease
Gains in technical efficiency and sourcing of
additional feeds will be critical for livestock and fish
(fish & poultry are the most efficient feed converters)
Monogastrics & aquaculture will still compete for feed
Sharing of best practices in management is crucial
Some key weaknesses in modeling livestock are:
Modeling rangeland/grassland availability
Relatively few biophysical models (compared to
crops) – still don’t capture heat/water stress directly
Capturing the land-use dimensions still a challenge