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MENA Regional Drought Monitoring
System (MENA-RDMS)
Rachael McDonnell, Karim Bergaoui, Rashyd
Zaaboul, Makram Belhaj Fraj
Drought in MENA has affected economies and
many vulnerable people
Palestine 2007-2008
• direct losses in crop
production of rain-fed
agriculture more than $113.5
million USD
• indirect losses estimated
+$250 M USD, + 200,000
small ruminants affected
(Ministry of Agriculture, 2008).
(Paolo Pellegrin, Magnum © National
Geographic)
Gaps and limits
to existing
national
management
strategies
UNESCWA/UNDESA, 2013
MENA Regional Drought
Management System
Three pillars of integrated drought
management
Vulnerability
and Impact
Assessment
Monitoring Early
Warning Systems
Mitigation and
Response
RDMS Development plan
• Activity 1 - Engaging
Stakeholders; needs and
opportunities analysis
• Activity 2 -Establishing and
operationalizing DMEWS
• Activity 3 – Conductivity
drought vulnerability and
impact assessment and
developing management
plans
• Activity 4 –Operational
support for national
DMEWS systems
Activity 1 - Engaging Stakeholders
• Building on what is
already in place
• Capturing the needs of
different end users
• Building ownership at the
national level
Important role of FAO country offices and national
partners
Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing
DMEWS – where we want to be…
Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing
DMEWS– defining MENA CDI
MENA CDI version 1 inputs – grid based pixel
(weighting) (base period)
1) Soil moisture anomalies– LIS model (16 years)
2) Vegetation conditions = NDVI anomalies– MODIS
(16 years)
3) Precipitation inputs = Standard precipitation index
CHIRPS (30 years)
4) Surface temperature – Land surface temperature
anomaly (LST) MODIS (16 years)
Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing
DMEWS– MENA CDI
Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing
DMEWS– MENA CDI
Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing
DMEWS– defining MENA CDI
MENA CDI version 1 inputs – grid based pixel
(weighting) (base period)
1) Soil moisture anomalies– LIS model (60%) (16
years)
2) Vegetation conditions = NDVI anomalies– MODIS
(5%) (16 years)
3) Precipitation inputs = Standard precipitation index
CHIRPS (30%) (30 years)
4) Surface temperature – Land surface temperature
anomaly (LST) MODIS (5%) (16 years)
Contribution of human induced climate change to the
unprecedented drought of 2014 in the Southern Levant
region Bergaoui et al, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society December 2015
Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing
DMEWS– MENA CDI
Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing
DMEWS – evapotranspiration through ALEXI
Evaporative Stress Index (5-km)
Predicting Middle Eastern and African
Seasonal Water Deficits using NASA
Data and Models
ICBA is an operational partner
NASA Science Mission Directorate
Earth Science Division
Applied Sciences Program
Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing
DMEWS – characterizing likely future droughts
(1976 – 2005)
(2026 – 2045)
Current
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
Activity 3 – Conductivity drought vulnerability
and impact assessment
• Where, which sectors
and communities were
most impacted in past
droughts
• Where and who is most
at risk today and
tomorrow?
Prioritize impacts and identify
mitigation actions and
interventions
Activity 4 - Operational support for national
DMEWS systems
Enabling
national
centers to
operationalize
DMEWS
and mitigation
responses
Engagement and collaboration across the
organizations and throughout the developments
• International, regional and national stakeholder
consortiums to undertake, review, feedback, and
adopt the three pillar developments
• Complex environment with many challenges to
be overcome but through this collaborative
platform and partnerships all possible
Thank you

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Drought monitoring and early warning in the MENA region: The ICBA contribution to the Regional Collaborative Platform, Rachael McDonnnell

  • 1. MENA Regional Drought Monitoring System (MENA-RDMS) Rachael McDonnell, Karim Bergaoui, Rashyd Zaaboul, Makram Belhaj Fraj
  • 2. Drought in MENA has affected economies and many vulnerable people Palestine 2007-2008 • direct losses in crop production of rain-fed agriculture more than $113.5 million USD • indirect losses estimated +$250 M USD, + 200,000 small ruminants affected (Ministry of Agriculture, 2008). (Paolo Pellegrin, Magnum © National Geographic)
  • 3. Gaps and limits to existing national management strategies UNESCWA/UNDESA, 2013
  • 5. Three pillars of integrated drought management Vulnerability and Impact Assessment Monitoring Early Warning Systems Mitigation and Response
  • 6. RDMS Development plan • Activity 1 - Engaging Stakeholders; needs and opportunities analysis • Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing DMEWS • Activity 3 – Conductivity drought vulnerability and impact assessment and developing management plans • Activity 4 –Operational support for national DMEWS systems
  • 7. Activity 1 - Engaging Stakeholders • Building on what is already in place • Capturing the needs of different end users • Building ownership at the national level Important role of FAO country offices and national partners
  • 8. Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing DMEWS – where we want to be…
  • 9. Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing DMEWS– defining MENA CDI MENA CDI version 1 inputs – grid based pixel (weighting) (base period) 1) Soil moisture anomalies– LIS model (16 years) 2) Vegetation conditions = NDVI anomalies– MODIS (16 years) 3) Precipitation inputs = Standard precipitation index CHIRPS (30 years) 4) Surface temperature – Land surface temperature anomaly (LST) MODIS (16 years)
  • 10. Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing DMEWS– MENA CDI
  • 11. Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing DMEWS– MENA CDI
  • 12. Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing DMEWS– defining MENA CDI MENA CDI version 1 inputs – grid based pixel (weighting) (base period) 1) Soil moisture anomalies– LIS model (60%) (16 years) 2) Vegetation conditions = NDVI anomalies– MODIS (5%) (16 years) 3) Precipitation inputs = Standard precipitation index CHIRPS (30%) (30 years) 4) Surface temperature – Land surface temperature anomaly (LST) MODIS (5%) (16 years)
  • 13. Contribution of human induced climate change to the unprecedented drought of 2014 in the Southern Levant region Bergaoui et al, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society December 2015
  • 14. Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing DMEWS– MENA CDI
  • 15. Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing DMEWS – evapotranspiration through ALEXI Evaporative Stress Index (5-km)
  • 16. Predicting Middle Eastern and African Seasonal Water Deficits using NASA Data and Models ICBA is an operational partner NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth Science Division Applied Sciences Program
  • 17. Activity 2 -Establishing and operationalizing DMEWS – characterizing likely future droughts (1976 – 2005) (2026 – 2045) Current RCP4.5 RCP8.5
  • 18. Activity 3 – Conductivity drought vulnerability and impact assessment • Where, which sectors and communities were most impacted in past droughts • Where and who is most at risk today and tomorrow? Prioritize impacts and identify mitigation actions and interventions
  • 19. Activity 4 - Operational support for national DMEWS systems Enabling national centers to operationalize DMEWS and mitigation responses
  • 20. Engagement and collaboration across the organizations and throughout the developments • International, regional and national stakeholder consortiums to undertake, review, feedback, and adopt the three pillar developments • Complex environment with many challenges to be overcome but through this collaborative platform and partnerships all possible