This Outlook formulated has been as a guidance and direction of Indonesian Agricultural Research and Development to 2030.

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INDONESIAN AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND
DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS 2030: AGRICULTURAL
BIO-INDUSTRY TRANSFORMATION OUTLOOK
Dr. Hermanto dkk
Slide - 372
I. INTRODUCTION
II. AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
CHALLENGES
III. PERSPECTIVE OF AGRICULTURAL
BIO-INDUSTRY
IV. AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND
DEVELOPMENT AGENDA
V. CONCLUSION
OUTLINE

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INTRODUCTION
I
The current world population of 7.3
billions is expected to reach 8.5 billions by
2030, 9.7 billions in 2050 (UN, 2015)
By 2030 the world will need to produce
around 50 % more food and energy
Research institutions have to improve
their capacities to develop agricultural
innovative agricultural technologies
4
Background

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TREND OF GLOBAL POPULATION & FOOD SUPPLY
How to feed the world in
the future, in a sustainable
way ?
II
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
CHALLENGES

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ANCAMAN :
• Degradasi SD Lahan dan Iklim
• Variabilitas dan Ke?dakpas?an
Iklim
• Konversi dan Alih Fungsi Lahan
• Keterbatasan dan Fragmentasi
Lahan Potensial
Population growth &
urbanization rate
Obstacles on
distribution and
marketing of
agricultural products
Climate Change &
environmental
damage
The Global
Economic
situation
Increase demand for
food, energy
& industry
CHALLENGES
… that will grow even further
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2020 2030
Predicted Popula2on growth (in million inhabitants)
Consuming class
Below Consuming
class
Consuming class or
more consumption
has been defined
as persons with a
real net monthly
income of US$ 300
or above
135 million people
The consuming class is also expected to grow to some 135 million people by 2030 (the McKinsey Global Institute).
Current middle class:
Boston Consulting Group estimated that Indonesia is home to 74 million 'middle class and affluent' consumers, with that number set
to rise to 141 million by 2030. McKinsey counts 45 million members of a 'consuming class', which it estimates will increase to 135
million by 2030.

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Sources:LD-UI,2012
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0
10
20
50
40
30
60
90
80
70
0-14 65+ total
Young
elderly
Bonus Demographics
DEMOGRAPHY BONUS
9
great potential for both
productivity and creativity
Popula2on(million)
Rural Urban
The Composi2on of Rural and
Urban Popula2on
Sources: LD-UI, 2012

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page 11Source: Indonesia Forum Foundation (Yayasan Indonesia Forum), team
analysis
Projected GDP per capita - Indonesia Vision 2030
Lower Middle
Income Country
Upper Middle
Income Country
High
Income Country
1992 2015 2023
Indonesia Vision
2030
Economic
Projection
2011 - 2045
3,005
5,300
9,000
14,900
22,500
1,660
2,359
3,923
7,231
12,449
18,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1990 1995 2000 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GDP per capita reached
US$3,005 in 2010
Economy of Indonesia
Indonesia become a high income country
page 12
$3,005 $5,300
$9,000
$14,900
$22,500
$30,400
$38,600
$46,900
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
GDP Nominal per capita
Indonesia becomes a high
income country with GDP per
capita USD 20.000-USD 22.500
Source: Indonesia Forum Foundation (Yayasan Indonesia Forum), team
analysis
Year

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COMPOSITION OF INDONESIA'S ECONOMY :
THE THREE MAIN SECTORS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1965 1980 1996 2010
PercentofGDP
(%)
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: BPS
Propor2on(%)
11
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
% GDP of Agriculture
% GDP of Industry
The trend of Indonesia's agricultural share to GDP

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Con2nued...
5
0
15
10
25
20
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
% GDP of Agroindustry
% GDP of Agro service
Propor2on(%)
The most important agricultural
commodities of Indonesia
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
Tons
WORLD'S TOP FIVE RICE PRODUCERS IN 2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Tons
Rice Production Indonesia :
Note: 2015 indicates a forecast
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations and Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture
Source: FAOSTAT Data 2014
RICE

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PRODUCTION TARGETS TO BE SELF-
SUFFICIENT OF 5 MAIN COMODITIES
COMODITY PRODUCTION 2014
(Million TON)
TARGETED PRODUCTION
2019
(Million TON)
Paddy 70.80 82.10
Corn 19.0 24.7
Soybean 0.95 3.00
Sugar 2,63 3.82
Beef 0,460 0.755
17
Sources: Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture
Palm Oil
33,500,000
20,350,000
2,250,000 1,025,000 930,000
Palm Oil Production in 2014
(in metric ton)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Production (million metric tons) 19.2 19.4 21.8 23.5 26.5
Export (million metric tons) 14.2 15.5 15.6 16.5 18.1
Export Value (USD billion) 15.6 10 16.4 20.2 21.6
INDONESIAN PALM OIL PRODUCTION AND
EXPORT:
Source:UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Indonesian Palm Oil Producers
Association (Gapki) and Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture

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Rubber (Natural)
3,348,900
3,088,400
996,673 891,344 811,600
Thailand Indonesia Malaysia India Vietnam
TOP FIVE NATURAL RUBBER PRODUCERS 2011
( in tonnes)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Produc?on 2.75 2.44 2.73 3.09 3.04 3.2
Export 0 1.99 2.2 2.55 2.8 2.7
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
in million tonnes
Source:FoodandAgriculture
OrganizationoftheUnitedNations
Sources: Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, Indonesian Rubber Association (Gapkindo), and
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Rubber in Indonesia
COCOA AND COFFEE
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2010 2011 2012 2013
in tonnes
Cocoa Coffee
Sources: Indonesia Cocoa Association and Indonesian Coffee and Cocoa Research
Institute and Asosiasi Eksportir dan Industri Kopi Indonesia (AEKI)

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Indonesian Intake of foodstuffs (grams/capita)
1996-2012
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
grams
Cereals
Starchy Food
Sugar
Nuts/Oil Seed
Fruits
Vegetables
Meat
Eggs
Milk
Fish
Oil and Fats
Total
FAO recommendations for fruits & vegetables : 73 kg per capita
Indonesian Petroleum Production vs Consumption
Sources: EIA, 2012.
Produc?on
Consump?on
Exports

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Land to People Ratio for Food Crops in Some Countries
No
.
Countries
Total Land
(000 ha)
Number of
People (000)
Land per capita
(m2/person)
1. Indonesia : Paddy Land 7.886 240.000 329
Paddy land and Dry land 13.386 240.000 558
2. Vietnam 7.500 78.137 960
3. Thailand 31.839 60.925 5.230
4. India 161.750 1.016.938 1.290
5. China 143.625 1.282.172 1.120
6. Bangladesh 8.085 123.406 655
7. Australia 50.304 19.153 26.100
8. Brazilia 58.865 171.796 3.430 Source : Sumarno, 2012
23
CLIMATE CHANGE

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Climate Change Effects Impacts on Indonesia
Sea Level Rise
Ocean Warming
Increased
Temperature
Increased Rainfall
Increased
Evaporation
Increased Tropical
Storms
Disappearance of Small Islands
Salt Water Intrusion
Decline in Fisheries Harvest
Loss of Biodiversity
Increased Fire Risk
Increased Disease Risk
Floods and Land Slides, food scarcity
Changes in Planting Season
Drought, Food scarcity
Transport Vulnerability
Food and Water Scarcity
Impact of Climate Change
PERSPECTIVE OF AGRICULTRAL
BIO-INDUSTRYIII

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Using renewable
resources for
industry
Developing
biomass-based
energy carriers
Technology-
transfer
International
Cooperation
Producing
healthy
and safe foods
Securing global nutrition
High value-added
products, min or zero
waste, min negative
impact, & max
economic benefits
PERSPECTIVE OF AGRICULTURAL BIO-INDUSTRY
Ensuring
sustainable
agricultural
production
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND
DEVELOPMENT AGENDAIV

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AGRICULTURAL
RESEARCH AGENDA
IAARD’s Keywords :
Innovative green technology
Local wisdom
Global Mindset
Bioindustrial
Agriculture
Transformation to Agricultural Bio-Industry
Bioscience
Bioengineering
Social engineering
Bioinforma)cs
Automatization
21st century:
new Socioeconomic &
Resources challenges
• Improving production
efficiency and coping with
climate change
• Providing ecosystem
services and public goods
• Empowering rural areas
and supporting policies
and rural innovation
• Developing a sustainable
and competitive agri-food
industry
• Supporting market
development for bio-
based products and
processes
Medium Term Development
Plan: 2015-2019
1 Strategic Plan Ministry of
Agriculture, 2015-2019
2. Grand Strategy of
Agricultural Development
(GSAD) 2015-2045
Strategic Plan IAARD
2015-2019
1. Genetic resources, land and
environment
2. Development of innovation
3. Food sovereignty, nutrition
and health
4. Bioenergy, export and
Industry
5. Agricultural value chain and
networking bioindustry
6. Political policy of agricultural
bio-industrial
Social
engineering
Political policy of
agricultural Bio-industry
Bioenergy, export and Industry
Global
Value
Chain
Innovation
Land and Environment
Bioengineering
Integrating Research Agenda
Bio-
prospecting
Automatization
Food
sovereignty,
nutrition and
health

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• Identification, prevention and mitigation of threats to the
quality of land resources and biodiversity with the
development of the alert system, as well as improving
the quality of productive land by applying
nanotechnology and biotechnology
• Development of information system of land use and
land cover (maps, images, databases, decision support,
or alert system
• Study of environmental impact on changes in land use
and land cover
• Networking database monitoring for the development of
regulations related to the management of germplasm,
land resources and environment.
Land and Environment
Genetic Resources
• Exploration, conservation and characterization of genetic
resources
• Development of superior, climate-ready and safe
varieties (including transgenic products)
• Developments of advanced technologies, such as
somatic embryogenesiss (seed propagation),
nanocoating (seed viability), nanofluidics (fertilization
prosess), seed production in vitro seed production,
planting media
• Advanced urban farming system; development of
controled environmental agriculture (CEA), and a fully
computerized multi-storey plant factory (biosensing, dan
nano solar cells)

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• Development of advanced postharvest handling
technologies to produce uniform quality: sensing
technology (sorting and grading), nano-bio-
preservative (product freshness)
• Development of healthy food: fortification,
modification of food structures and nano-delivery
system and novel food & food ingredients
• The development of highly valuable non-food
products and their derivatives (bioprocess
technology, separation, and isolation efficient).
• Development of advanced functional biomaterial
composite
• Development of biodegradable, active & smart
packaging
The development of innovation for
improving competitiveness of products
AVC:
1. Mapping global market
segmentation
2. Production chain
3. Marketing
4. Consumer preferences
Agricultural Value Chain and Networking Bio-industry
Networking Bio-industry:
1. Identify networking bio-
industry supported by
agencies
2. Promoting networking bio-
industry at institutional level
3. Knowledge development and
exchange/sharing between
government institutions,
academia, industries, service
providers and others

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• The development of high-yielding non food
crop capable of producing biofuel
• Development of bioenergy plants in
marginal rural areas
• The development of energy efficient farm
management systems
• Utilization of novel microorganism for waste
management
• Development of biomass high-yielding
crops
• Bioproduct development, such as
briquettes, biopellet, charcoal, Bio-oil,
bioethanol
BIOENERGY
Political policy of Agricultural Bio-industry
• Science and innovation policy (knowledge:
research, extension, education and
information)
• Land policy: land tenure reform and land
quality improvement
• Policy on production supplies, farm
practices, agricultural processing industry,
market and trade;
• Policy on agricultural infrastructures, human
resources, and development of farmers’s
institution.

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IMPLEMENTING STRATEGY FOR
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND
DEVELOPMENTv
TransdisciplinaryCapacity Building
Dissemination
Strengthening
corporate
management
Funding
IMPLEMENTING STRATEGY

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CONCLUSION
• The development of agricultural bio-industry offers a new concept
and approach for future agriculture development in Indonesia.
• Agricultural research agenda to support the development of bio
industrial agriculture are as follows ; (1) Genetic resources, land
and environment; (2) Development of innovation; (3) Food
sovereignty, nutrition and health; (4) Bioenergy, export and Industry;
(5) Agricultural value chain and Networking Bioindustry; and (6)
Political policy of agricultural bioindustry
• This Outlook formulated has been as a guidance and direction of
Indonesian Agricultural Research and Development to 2030.