Luciano Roppa DVM Meat production: main challenges in the next 20 years
Actually, the food system continues  to provide plentiful and affordable food  for the majority of the world’s population …
Source: OECD/FAO, 2010. We are producing enough to provide  at least 2,800 Kcal/person/day … Production,  million T Availa...
…  but, we are failing in three major  ways which demand decisive action:
0,9 Billion Underfed 1 - Food is unevenly distributed  around the world 1,3 Billion Overweight Source: WHO (World Health O...
…  money is unevenly distributed around the world 43 percent of the World’s Population lives on less than US$2/day GDP dis...
GERMANY: The MELANDER family: 2 adults and 2 teenagers Food expenditure for one week:  500 Dollars Source: Hungry Planet: ...
CHAD: The ABOUBAKAR family of Breidjing Camp: 3 adults and 3 kids Food expenditure for one week:  1,20 Dollars Source: Hun...
2 - Hunger remains widespread: 925 million people  don’t have access to sufficient  macronutrients (proteins & carbohydrat...
3 - Many systems of food production  are unsustainab le Environment  degradation, destruction of biodiversity and climate ...
The global food system will experience  an unprecedented confluence of pressures  over the next 20 years ...
Let’s have a look at the Mega Trends  that will affect meat production in the next 20 years …
1,2 billion more people in 20 years 85% living in developing countries Source:  OECD/FAO 1
Source:  United Nations, DESA, 2005 It will be a population with more aged people From 0,8 billion people with more than 6...
More people will be living in the cities From actual 3,3 billion people today to 4,9 billion in 2030 Source:  UN World Urb...
Do we have enough crop land? 2010 to 2050: Growth in crop yields will continue  to be the mainstay of crop production grow...
Do we have enough Water? 5
Water scarcity is a global phenomenon, mostly  affecting those areas most dependent on agriculture Areas of water scarcity...
Source:  FAO data Purchasing power will grow  35% in the next 20 years From actual USD 6,100 per capita to USD 8,290  6
China and India middle class will grow from  200 milli on  people in each country today,  to  more than  800 million  in e...
Source: FAO data Food quality will improve From actual 2,800 Kcal available/person/day to 3,040 in 2030 8
Kilocalories consumption per capita (Kcal/day) 3800 2850 3400 2450 2650 3200 …  but, unevenly distributed  around the worl...
Mix of animal protein consumption is changing  towards cheaper, low-fat meats 9
Consumption patterns are more and more driven  by the notion of health and wellness 10
Food safety  requirements are increasing  driven by consumer sensitivity and regulations … 11
…  but, still a lot of work to do …
Source:  Projections of Global Meat Production Through 2050  , Thomas E. Elam Meat consumption per capita will grow  from ...
Consumption will grow more in Developing countries due to purchasing power increase 13 Meat Consumption growth 2009-19 (kg...
Our challenge: <ul><li>- Produce more </li></ul><ul><li>(growth in population and purchasing power) </li></ul><ul><li>Bett...
How much Meat will we have  to produce in the next 10 years?
Meat production growth by species, 2010 to 2019 Source:  L. Roppa, 2010  -  Based:  OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-201...
Meat production growth by country, 2010 to 2019  (MMT) 4,7 33,2 Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2...
Poultry meat production growth, 2010 to 2019  (MMT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaborat...
Beef Cattle production growth, 2010 to 2019  (MMT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaborati...
Pig meat production growth, 2010 to 2019  (MMT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration ...
Milk production growth, 2010 to 2019  (MMT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Lu...
Who would import more meat  in the next 10 years? Main meat importers, 2019  (million MT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural ...
Who would be able to export more  meat in the near future (2019)? Main meat exporters, 2019  (million MT) Source : “OCDE-F...
Are you, as a Leader, ready for these  changes?
Email:  [email_address] Address:  Rua Araca, 567 Alphaville 13.098-379 Campinas Brazil L. Roppa Consulting
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Meat production, meat, meat production challenges, consumption, trends, meat, feed, food, nutrition, nutrición, challenges, pork, beef, poultry, pollos, cerdos, suinos, swine, beef, bovino, frango, carne,

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Global population will increase to 9 billion persons in 2050. Are we producing enough food (meat) actually? Are we ready to attend future meat demands? Developing countries are increasing the meat production and meat consumption two times more than Developed countries. Brazil and USA are the actual meat exports leaders. Nutrition.

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Meat production, meat, meat production challenges, consumption, trends, meat, feed, food, nutrition, nutrición, challenges, pork, beef, poultry, pollos, cerdos, suinos, swine, beef, bovino, frango, carne,

  1. 1. Luciano Roppa DVM Meat production: main challenges in the next 20 years
  2. 2. Actually, the food system continues to provide plentiful and affordable food for the majority of the world’s population …
  3. 3. Source: OECD/FAO, 2010. We are producing enough to provide at least 2,800 Kcal/person/day … Production, million T Availability per capita, kg/year <ul><ul><li>OILSEEDS </li></ul></ul>387,1 56,9 <ul><ul><li>CEREALS </li></ul></ul>2,214,2 325,6 <ul><ul><li>MEAT </li></ul></ul>271,4 39,9 <ul><ul><li>FISH </li></ul></ul>117,0 17,2 <ul><ul><li>MILK </li></ul></ul>677,4 99,6 <ul><ul><li>SUGAR </li></ul></ul>161,1 23,7 <ul><ul><li>TOTAL </li></ul></ul>3828,2 563,0
  4. 4. … but, we are failing in three major ways which demand decisive action:
  5. 5. 0,9 Billion Underfed 1 - Food is unevenly distributed around the world 1,3 Billion Overweight Source: WHO (World Health Organization), 2009.
  6. 6. … money is unevenly distributed around the world 43 percent of the World’s Population lives on less than US$2/day GDP distribution Population GDP
  7. 7. GERMANY: The MELANDER family: 2 adults and 2 teenagers Food expenditure for one week: 500 Dollars Source: Hungry Planet: What the World Eats
  8. 8. CHAD: The ABOUBAKAR family of Breidjing Camp: 3 adults and 3 kids Food expenditure for one week: 1,20 Dollars Source: Hungry Planet: What the World Eats
  9. 9. 2 - Hunger remains widespread: 925 million people don’t have access to sufficient macronutrients (proteins & carbohydrates) Source: FAO
  10. 10. 3 - Many systems of food production are unsustainab le Environment degradation, destruction of biodiversity and climate change
  11. 11. The global food system will experience an unprecedented confluence of pressures over the next 20 years ...
  12. 12. Let’s have a look at the Mega Trends that will affect meat production in the next 20 years …
  13. 13. 1,2 billion more people in 20 years 85% living in developing countries Source: OECD/FAO 1
  14. 14. Source: United Nations, DESA, 2005 It will be a population with more aged people From 0,8 billion people with more than 60 years old today, to 1,5 billion in 2030 2
  15. 15. More people will be living in the cities From actual 3,3 billion people today to 4,9 billion in 2030 Source: UN World Urbanization Prospects report, 2005 3
  16. 16. Do we have enough crop land? 2010 to 2050: Growth in crop yields will continue to be the mainstay of crop production growth. 4 Yields Crop intensity Area expansion World 77 % 14 % 9 % Developing countries 71 % 8 % 21 %
  17. 17. Do we have enough Water? 5
  18. 18. Water scarcity is a global phenomenon, mostly affecting those areas most dependent on agriculture Areas of water scarcity 1) International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Source: FAO Agriculture employs 58-62% of population and represents 12-18% of GDP Agriculture employs 2-4% of population and represents 2% of GDP Agriculture employs 20% of population and represents 6% of GDP
  19. 19. Source: FAO data Purchasing power will grow 35% in the next 20 years From actual USD 6,100 per capita to USD 8,290 6
  20. 20. China and India middle class will grow from 200 milli on people in each country today, to more than 800 million in each country by 2030 40 % of the world’s population now lives in countries with economies that are growing at 8 % annually . 7
  21. 21. Source: FAO data Food quality will improve From actual 2,800 Kcal available/person/day to 3,040 in 2030 8
  22. 22. Kilocalories consumption per capita (Kcal/day) 3800 2850 3400 2450 2650 3200 … but, unevenly distributed around the world …
  23. 23. Mix of animal protein consumption is changing towards cheaper, low-fat meats 9
  24. 24. Consumption patterns are more and more driven by the notion of health and wellness 10
  25. 25. Food safety requirements are increasing driven by consumer sensitivity and regulations … 11
  26. 26. … but, still a lot of work to do …
  27. 27. Source: Projections of Global Meat Production Through 2050 , Thomas E. Elam Meat consumption per capita will grow from actual 43 kg to 55 kg in 2030 Due to purchasing power growth 12
  28. 28. Consumption will grow more in Developing countries due to purchasing power increase 13 Meat Consumption growth 2009-19 (kg/person) OECD countries NON OECD countries 2009 2019 2009 2019 PORK 23,3 23,5 9,2 10,8 POULTRY 25,8 27,9 8,7 10,4 BEEF 15,0 15,0 4,7 5,1 SHEEP 1,7 1,4 1,6 1,8 TOTAL 66,1 68,4 24,2 28,1 Growth 3,5 % 16,1 %
  29. 29. Our challenge: <ul><li>- Produce more </li></ul><ul><li>(growth in population and purchasing power) </li></ul><ul><li>Better </li></ul><ul><li>(food safety, health and wellness) </li></ul><ul><li>With less resources </li></ul><ul><li>(less land, water, labor, energy & higher prices) </li></ul><ul><li>With sustainability </li></ul><ul><li>(environment & animal well-being) </li></ul>
  30. 30. How much Meat will we have to produce in the next 10 years?
  31. 31. Meat production growth by species, 2010 to 2019 Source: L. Roppa, 2010 - Based: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019. Beef Pork Poultry Sheep Total meat Human population 2007- 09 65,2 102,5 91,2 12,5 271,5 6,600 2019 74,6 126,6 117,8 15,4 334,5 7,670 Growth,% 14,4 23,3 29,2 23,3 23,2 16,2
  32. 32. Meat production growth by country, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) 4,7 33,2 Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-09 2019 growth% Quantity World 271,5 334,5 23,2 63,0 EU 27 42,06 42,24 0,4 0,18 USA 40,38 44,90 11,2 4,52 China 66,58 89,63 34,6 23,05 Brazil 23,67 31,52 33,2 7,85 Russia 5,64 7,92 40,4 2,28
  33. 33. Poultry meat production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-09 2019 Increase, % World 91,22 117,85 29,2 1 - USA 18,90 21,28 12,6 2 - China 14,95 20,61 37,8 3 -Brazil 11, 48 16,71 45,5 4 - EU 27 11,53 11,84 2,7 5 - India 2,50 3,91 56,4
  34. 34. Beef Cattle production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-09 2019 Increase, % World 65,22 74,64 14,4 1 - USA 11,46 12,05 5,1 2 - Brazil 9,16 11,15 21,7 3 - EU 27 8,08 7,30 - 9,6 4 - China 6,01 6,72 11,8 5 - India 2,92 3,65 25,0
  35. 35. Pig meat production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-09 2019 Increase, % World 102,54 126,65 23,5 1 - China 45,62 62,30 36,5 2 - EU 27 22,45 23,09 2,8 3 - USA 10,02 11,56 15,3 4 - Brazil 3,03 3,66 20,8 5 - Russia 1,93 2.62 35,7
  36. 36. Milk production growth, 2010 to 2019 (MMT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 2007-09 2019 Increase, % World 677,45 848,50 25,2 1 - UE 27 147,37 151,06 2,5 2 - India 105,83 147,95 39,8 3 - USA 85,39 95,38 11,7 4 - Pakistan 35,26 58,59 66,1 5 - China 36,85 56,97 54,6
  37. 37. Who would import more meat in the next 10 years? Main meat importers, 2019 (million MT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 Beef Poultry Pork Total USA 1,515 0,040 0,574 2,129 Japan 0,720 0,234 1,150 2,104 Mexico 0,383 0,998 0,520 1,901 EU-27 0,643 1,210 0,040 1,893 Russia 0,558 0,548 0,248 1,354
  38. 38. Who would be able to export more meat in the near future (2019)? Main meat exporters, 2019 (million MT) Source : “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019”, June 2010 Elaboration : Luciano Roppa, June 2010 Beef & Veal Pork Poultry Total Brazil 2,556 0,706 5,972 9,234 USA 1,145 2,788 3,096 7,029 EU-27 0,032 1,009 0,895 1,936 Canada 0,519 1,182 0,190 1,891 World 8,845 6,647 13,175 28,667
  39. 39. Are you, as a Leader, ready for these changes?
  40. 40. Email: [email_address] Address: Rua Araca, 567 Alphaville 13.098-379 Campinas Brazil L. Roppa Consulting

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