The US Presidential Election's consequences on Canadian economy, trade negotiations, relations, impact on North American cooperation and economy

1. Canadian Opinion On
The US Presidential Election
November 2016

2. Summary
 This national survey of the Canadian public has turned up a number of interesting insights in the final
fortnight of the US Presidential campaign.
 Firstly, Canadians are following this election closely. Most believe the result could have important
consequences for the economies of both Canada and the US.
 Canadians much prefer Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. No gender, age group or region in Canada can
be considered even relatively comfortable with a Trump victory. Most think he would harm the North
American economy.
 On the other hand there is little strong enthusiasm for Clinton. Canadians are more likely to say two-way
trade or relations will be hurt by a Trump victory than helped by a Clinton victory.
 While some may say Canada-US relations were strained under President Obama and could stand to
improve, agreement with that sentiment is offset by the much larger proportion of Canadians that thinks
very favourably of the current Presidents. Favourability ratings for President Obama are extraordinarily
high. Most think he should have been allowed to run again.
 The more fundamental issue is that Canadians are extremely pessimistic about the direction of the US and
its economy. A Trump defeat may mitigate that and improve their outlook on the future of North
America…but only somewhat. In sum, there is no easy road coming out of this election with respect to
Canadians’ outlook for North American cooperation and the economy.
 The survey was completed with an online general population sample of 800 Canadians (October 14 –19,
2016. Data is weighted to be representative of gender, age and region.
2

3. 3333
Canadians far more likely to say US is
headed in the wrong direction
Which of these statements is closer to your opinion?
69%
24%
31%
76%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Canada
The United States
While it has some problems, (Canada/the US) is generally headed in the
RIGHT direction
There are more things going badly than well in the country right now
and (Canada/the US) is headed in the WRONG direction

4. 4444
Canadians more pessimistic about
the US economy
Looking forward to one year from now, do you think the (Canadian/US) economy
will be much stronger than it is today, a little stronger than it is today, a little weaker
than it is today, or much weaker than it is today?
7%
5%
48%
26%
23%
33%
8%
17%
14%
19%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Canadian Economy
US Economy
Much stronger A little stronger A little weaker Much weaker DK/ NR

5. 5555
Canadians are far less optimistic for
the future of the US
Here are some statements about various current affairs. Please let us know if you strongly agree,
somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with each.
58%
28%
26%
53%
16%
19%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Canada's best days are ahead
The best days of the
United States are ahead
Agree Disagree DK

6. 6666
How the US Election Is Perceived
Now please tell us if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree
with each?
68%
45%
43%
29%
25%
42%
51%
58%
6%
12%
6%
14%
0% 50% 100%
I have watched at least some parts of the
two televised debates between Hillary
Clinton and Donald Trump
The tone of the current US Presidential
election campaign will have an influence
on how politics is practiced in Canada
I'm enjoying watching the US election
I imagine that someone similar to
Donald Trump could emerge as an
important political figure on the
Canadian political scene
Agree Disagree DK

7. 7777
Favourability of Political Leaders
Using a scale where one means “very unfavourable” and nine means “very favourable”,
how do you feel about each of the following?
63%
54%
38%
31%
23%
11%
21%
25%
31%
33%
40%
12%
10%
17%
15%
32%
30%
73%
5%
4%
16%
5%
7%
4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Barack Obama
Justin Trudeau
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Bill Clinton
Donald Trump
Very favourable (7-9) Modestly favourable (4-6)
Not favourable (1-3) DK

8. 8888
Presidential Nominee Preferences
Which of the two major parties’ nominees would you prefer became President of the
United States?
Hilary Clinton
66%
Donald Trump
14%
Don't know
20%

9. 9999
Presidential Nominee Preferences
Which of the two major parties’ nominees would you prefer became President of the
United States?
64%
19%
16%
Men
Hillary
Clinton
Donald
Trump
Don't
know 68%
8%
24%
Women

10. 10101010
Impact of a Trump win
Now please tell us whether you think the election of DONALD TRUMP in November
would have a positive or negative impact on each of the following.
14%
14%
13%
11%
11%
21%
15%
19%
20%
17%
53%
59%
58%
59%
61%
11%
12%
10%
10%
11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Canada-US security
The US economy
The Canadian economy
Canada-US relations
Trade between Canada and the
US
Positive Neither positive nor negative Negative DK

11. 11111111
Impact of a Clinton win
And what kind of impact you think the election of HILLARY CLINTON in November
would have on those issues?
36%
30%
28%
27%
24%
43%
46%
43%
48%
52%
10%
12%
16%
13%
12%
11%
12%
13%
12%
11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Canada-US relations
Trade between Canada and the
US
The US economy
Canada-US security
The Canadian economy
Positive Neither positive nor negative Negative DK

12. THANK YOU
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