1. WHAT HAPPENED IN IOWA?
“Is it a revolt?” asked Louis XVI upon being informed of the storming of the
Bastille. “No, sire,” sighed his minister “I fear it is a revolution.”
Indeed, in both parties, last night’s Iowa caucuses proved that politics in the
United States today is a revolution, not a revolt. Fortunately, while not a
violent revolution a la France, it is every bit as serious for American politics
and American life. Contrary to conventional wisdom, this election is not
about ideology, issues, or items on a resume. This is an electionof
insurgency.
Since 2013 Armada has conducted a half a dozen surveys with American
voters, both telephone and online, charting this phenomenon. Our most
recent survey, conducted January 2-7, 2016 onlineof a large sample of
1,600 interviews was notdone as a momentary glimpseor a snapshotof
the primaries, butrather as a continuation of an in-depth study of the
psychology of the American electorate. And it explains what we witnessed
across Iowa, and whatweare likely to witness as the primaries move
forward.
Our mulit-year series of survey data of the “Smith Project” clearly indicates
a new paradigm has emerged. It is a shiftin political tectonic plates, the
death rattle of the old order and the coming of the new political order. The
old rules that reflected an establishment-centered, ideological two-party
duopoly are now under siege by an anti-establishment, anti-political class,
anti-duopoly movement that is nonpartisan and to a great degree even
non-ideological. But this is no small revolutionary cadre; it includes the
overwhelming majority of American voters of every persuasion. This is
another in the great and lasting upheavals in our political history, and like
all upheavals, it has its own unique qualities.
Based on research of political alienation among the American people
growing to historic levels, in 2013 Patrick Caddell described publicly that
the country was in a prerevolutionary moment. The upheavaland the

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explosion of discontentthat have provided a launch-pad for outsider
candidates fromDonald Trump to Bernie Sanders are not, as so many
establishment pundits suggest, justanother episode in the long history of
ad-hoc populist moments of discontent sureto fadeaway. Our survey data
shows thatthe United States is in the midst of an evolving political
revolution of historic proportions. In fact, this election could mark the
beginning of the end of two-party duopoly in the United States. If you
doubt that, read on.

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CURRENT FINDINGS
(Because of the volume of data and information, wewill be releasing on a
periodic basis analysis of various components of the Smith poll. As this
research reveals, these trends started years ago, but Iowa dramatized how
real and right now this revolution is.
For each item below you may turn to the Appendixfor the actual questions
and results.)
ResearchFindings andHighlights:
1) As we’ve seeninour polling since 2013, Americans believe our country
is in decline (this year, by a two-thirds majority). They believe our kids will
not have it as good as we have had it (56% believe the futurein the United
States will be worsefor mostchildren); wemay be the firstgeneration of
Americans to pass on a country that is worse, notbetter off – the
abnegation of the American Dream. The people believe the U.S. has a two-
track economy, where mostAmericans struggle every day, wheregood jobs
are hard to find, and wherehuge corporations get all the rewards (72%
agree). Three-fourths of Americans believe Americais a unique nation and
that we should protect our unique character (See Appendix 1).
2) They know why this decline is happening. Eighty-one percent believe
the power of ordinary people to controlour country is getting weaker every
day as politicians of both parties fight to protect their own power and
privilege (81% of all voters – across the board – believe this). Even more
(84%) believe political leaders are moreinterested in protecting their
power and privilege than doing whatis right. In addition, three-quarters of
the American people believe that powerfulinterests, fromWall Street to
Unions to interest groups, haveused campaign and lobbying money to rig
the systemfor themselves. The reason families in our middle class havenot
seen their economic condition improve for decades and economic growth is
stalled is because of corruption and crony capitalism in Washington (72%
agree). The perception of widespread political corruption shades virtually

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every responsein this poll. That’s because the voters feel corruption taints
every action and interaction in Washington. Two-thirds of Americans
disagreethat the US government is working for the people’s best interest.
Indeed, 71% believe our government is not only dysfunctional; it is
collapsing right before our eyes. (On our 0-10 IssueScales, for later release,
“Governmentethics and corruption” ranks among the three top scoring
issues.) And 7 out of 10 Americans believe that the governmentin
Washington does not govern with the consentof the people. The state of
alienationinour country is unprecedented –in size andscope (See
Appendix 2).
3) The Democratic and RepublicanParties are essentially useless in
changing this situation. Americans overwhelmingly agree(78%-15%) that
both political parties are too beholden to special interests to create any
meaningful change. This attitude may not be reversible with the current
generation of voters. This is the situation that creates opportunity -- make
that the necessity -- for new choices in our political system. Eighty percent
believe the federal government is its own special interest primarily looking
out for itself. So who’s going to look out for us? That’s what the people
ask in this election.
We have all noted the continual riseof Independents in party affiliation
such that it represents a commanding plurality of the American people.
Today in America, almost eighty percent of the hard core independents say
they do not vote a party line. And consider these two statements:
 Our party system is very flawed. We need new citizen leaders
within ourpolitical parties,insteadofthe same old party
machine politicians,to restore the ideals of ourparties.
 Both parties havefailed us and it’s time to move on from our
two partysystem. We need to vote for independent candidates
and let some new political parties come together to truly
represent the American people.

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Altogether, 75% of all voters supportthese statements (38%, thefirst, and
37%, the second within the samequestion in our research). Indeed, only
15% say the “values and principals of my political party are so important
that I strongly prefer to vote for the candidates of my party…” The voters
are ready to moveon froma party systemthat has failed the people and
failed to measureup to the problems we face as a nation.
So the people believe the real strugglefor America is not between
Democrats and Republicans, but between mainstream Americaand the
ruling political elites of incumbent politicians, lobbyists, big business, big
unions, big banks, big special interests and the big media. That’s right. Our
free press is nohelp. In fact, they (74%) seethe biased and slanted
coverageof the media as partof the problem (See Appendix 3).
4) What can turnthis situationaround? Seventy-ninepercent of all voters,
all parties and all demographics say that we need to recruit and support
more candidates for office, at all levels of government, who are ordinary
citizens, rather than professionalpoliticians and lawyers. And 56% say they
wish there were a third party with a chance of success to fight for their
interests. Think of that as the void between establishment Democratic and
Republican politics and the change and reformthe American people
demand.
In 2013, sensing increased alienation and frustration with the status quo of
politics in Washington, wetested a hypothetical “Candidate Smith” to
explore whether there was latent supportfor an alternative approach in
American politics. Andthere certainly was.
We didn’t define Smith as Republican or Democrat, woman or man. We
didn’t define Smith’s age, race or religion.
This is how we describedCandidate Smith:
 “Candidate Smith’s beliefs are not based on liberal or
conservativeideas, justfundamental American common sense.
Smith says wecan’t change anything with the usualpolitics, the

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usualpoliticians, and the usual interest groups. Weneed new
leaders frommainstreamAmerica, like Candidate Smith, who take
on the political elites and special interests, and put the American
people in chargeagain.”
While our poll shows that even the current leaders in the Democratic and
Republican presidential primaries areperceived far more unfavorably than
favorably, Smith’s “favorable/unfavorable” numbers after reading that
paragraph area stunning 77% favorableand 11% unfavorable.
Without even knowing Candidate Smith, voters of all parties and
demographics would chooseSmith, running as an Independent, over Hillary
Clinton and Donald Trump. And Smith beats Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Jeb
Bush, too.
And we also tested Candidate Smith in both primaries. In the Republican
primary, Smith tops the field winning 34% of the vote, while frontrunner
Donald Trump’s supportdrops 10 points from37 to 27. In early January in
the Democratic primary Clinton was winning 59% to 39% over Sanders.
When Smith was tested as a prospectiveDemocrat, Clinton’s lead dropped
20 points to 39 and Sanders dropped a dozen to 18 with Smith a very close
second to Hillary at 35%.
As we will release later, it is importantto note that not one of the
Republican or Democratic candidates today is considered any more than
“somewhatsimilar” to Smith. This defines the void between a “Smith
candidate” and a Republican or Democratic candidate.
Of course, as relative outsiders and addressing the anger and frustration of
the voters, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders capturesome of the public
mood. Indeed, many havesaid that Trump captures the “anger vote.” If
that were true, he would haveover 80% of all votes and all voters. Among
the currentlist of candidates, there is still a void. Yes, voters will dutifully
make choices in the upcoming caucuses and primaries – but they yearn for
better choices.

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Consider the supportfor a few of Smith’s positions:
 Smith says no one candidate can fix our systemor our country alone.
What we need is for ordinary Americans to stand up, take
responsibility and take control. Eight-one percent of voters agree.
 Smith believes our economic policies of both parties have failed and
we mustgrow the economy and providereal jobs and better wages
for the middle class. Eighty percent agree.
 Smith says that America cannotsucceed unless we take on and
defeat the corruption and crony capitalism in our government.
Seventy-sixpercent agree.
 Smith says wemust fix our broken political systembefore we can go
about solving the other important issues, like economic growth,
education, national security or immigration. Two-thirds of all voters
agree.
Candidates talk about a mandate to lead. Smith’s favorability rises to 81%
of all voters when they have learned about his platform. That mandate is
spelled out very clearly by the people’s supportfor a Candidate Smith’s
broad Platformof Reform and Rejuvenation. And that cry for change and
reformwill result in Candidate Smiths at every level of government sharing
a broad common theme of common sense, common purpose, and common
destiny (See Appendix 4).
5) The power elite asks, “Whenwill this be over?” Although this is seen as
a chaotic and temporary situation by most of the political and media
establishment, our research shows a strong, evolving tidal wave of
discontent and growing pressurefor realand dramatic change.
The belief that politics works becausevoters ultimately will choose, even
between justtwo candidates or between two parties, is illusory. Given
nothing but those choices, make no mistake; most voters will make a
choice. But that does not mean that their choice is an affirmation of what
they desire. The question is this: will our next President havethe real
supportof the American people?

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Real change is what that the establishment fears mostand fights hardest
against. It is ultimately a losing battle. Given the establishment’s inherent
advantages of controlling structures, rules and resources, the full potential
of change may not be realized in 2016. Butit will continue. This, in fact, is
a revolution.
Patrick Caddell/ Bob Perkins/Scott Miller