Can Digital Data help predict the results of the US elections?

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Can digital data help predict the outcome of an election?

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Can Digital Data help predict the results of the US elections?

  1. 1. Can digital data help predict the results of the US elections?
  2. 2. What are voters searching for? Av. monthly searches over the past 12 months (US only) Av. monthly searches over the past 12 months (US only) Search terms Av. monthly searches Hilary Clinton 1M-10M Hilary Clinton scandals 10K-100K Hilary Clinton views 1k-10K Who is Hilary Clinton 1K-10K Hilary Clinton past 100-1K Search terms Av. monthly searches Donald Trump Jn. 100K-1M Donald Trump wife 10K-100K Donald Trump bankruptcy 10K-100K Donald Trump hair 10K-100K Who is Donald Trump 10-100K • Internet users were found to commonly search for information about the Presidential candidates’ pasts… For Clinton search terms included scandal and ‘past’, whilst others searched for information about Trump’s bankruptcy Source: Google Keyword Planner
  3. 3. Trump vs. Clinton site performance 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Clinton (hillaryclinton.com) Trump (donaldjtrump.com) Clinton Trump Total traffic 14.6M 12.40M Av. Duration 2.08 1.40 Pages per visit 2.13 2 US traffic 81.34% 85.82% Site performance Overall traffic volumes: Trump vs. Clinton (April 2016 – September 2016) • Clinton’s campaign website has received higher traffic levels than Trump’s overall, and has received higher levels of engagement. • Trump has however received higher volumes of visitors from the US than Clinton • Overall winner: Clinton Source: Similarweb
  4. 4. Traffic sources Traffic sources (April 2016 – September 2016) 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00% Direct Referrals Search Social Mail Display Clinton (hillaryclinton.com) Trump (donaldjtrump.com) • In terms of traffic sources, Clinton has a much more even marketing mix than Trump , performing well in terms of direct traffic and social referrals… • Overall winner: Clinton Source: Similarweb
  5. 5. Traffic sources: social Social sources (April 2016 – September 2016) 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% Facebook Reddit Twitter YouTube Clinton (hillaryclinton.com) Trump (donaldjtrump.com) • Clinton also received an impressive 26.36% of her overall traffic from social media sites; this means that users are cognitively engaging with her content, despite having a smaller social footprint than Trump • Overall winner: Clinton (however Trump in terms of reach) Clinton Trump Twitter 10.1M 12.9M Facebook 7.7M 11.9M Social footprint Source: Similarweb
  6. 6. Overall volume of mentions 0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000 30000000 35000000 Clinton Trump • Trump dwarves Clinton in terms of volume of mentions with an incredible 139,264,698 mentions vs. 51,129,198 mentions for Clinton. Negative sentiment remains higher for Trump than Clinton • The increase in volume for Clinton in July 2016 and October 2016 is linked to the FBI investigation into her email server… * Conversations mentioning Trump or Clinton were analysed between 1st April 2016 – 22nd October 2016, in the USA only Clinton Trump Total convs 51M 139M Positive 9% 13% Neutral 68% 57% Negative 24% 30%
  7. 7. Clinton mentions over time 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 2000000 4/1/16 5/1/16 6/1/16 7/1/16 8/1/16 9/1/16 10/1/16 • Daily peaks in conversations in October are linked to a general increase in news stories as opposed to a specific event /news story * Conversations mentioning Clinton were analysed between 1st April 2016 – 22nd October 2016, in the USA only using BrandWatch
  8. 8. Trump mentions over time 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 4/1/16 5/1/16 6/1/16 7/1/16 8/1/16 9/1/16 10/1/16 • Daily peaks in conversations in October are linked to a general increase in news stories as opposed to a specific event /news story * Conversations mentioning Trump were analysed between 1st April 2016 – 22nd October 2016, in the USA only using BrandWatch
  9. 9. Emotions 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Joy Sadness Disgust Anger Surprise Fear Clinton Trump * Conversations mentioning Trump or Clinton analysed between 1st April 2016 – 22nd October 2016, in the USA only using BrandWatch • Both candidates inspire positive and negative emotions; Clinton scored higher than Trump in terms of disgust, whilst Trump scored higher in terms of fear…
  10. 10. What do voters think of either candidates winning? % sentiment around Clinton winning the elections • Overall, 517,969 conversations mentioned Hillary Clinton winning the US election* • Of these conversation 18% were positive and 19% negative • Trump however received 2, 369, 451 conversations mentioning a potential win* • However the sentiment around Trump winning is largely negative (47%)… • Overall winner: Clinton 18 19 62 Positive Negative Neutral % sentiment around Trump winning the elections 26 47 27 Positive Negative Neutral * Conversations mentioning Trump or Clinton winning were analysed between 1st April 2016 – 22nd October 2016, in the USA only using BrandWatch
  11. 11. Volume of conversations over time discussing each candidate winning 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 Trump Clinton • The amount of conversations related to Trump winning doubled in October vs. previous month… • However, as previously noted, sentiment for Trump remains largely negative… • Conversations mentioning Trump or Clinton winning were analysed between 1st April 2016 – 22nd October 2016, in the USA only using BrandWatch
  12. 12. Volume of public support * Conversations mentioning Vote for Trump or Clinton including campaign hashtags and multiple variants were analysed between 1st April 2016 – 22nd October 2016, in the USA only using BrandWatch 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 4/1/16 5/1/16 6/1/16 7/1/16 8/1/16 9/1/16 10/1/16 Clinton Trump • Trump has received a larger volume of public support (2,279,681 mentions) than Hillary, (1,274,546 mentions) during period. However this could be down to the fact Trump supporters tend to be more vocal… • Overall winner: Trump
  13. 13. www.laurenceborel.com

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