The UN FAO Senior Locust Forecasting Officer, Keith Cressman, gave a 30-minute keynote presentation on Desert Locust management at the 24th International Congress of Entomology (ICE2012), Daegu, South Korea (19-25 August 2012). An overview of Desert Locust biology and population dynamics, economics and FAO's early warning system are presented.

1. Desert Locust
(harmless)

2. Desert Locust
(dangerous)

3. Tracking
locusts FAO’s early warning system
Keith Cressman
Senior Locust Forecasting Officer
Rome

4. the problem

5. Recession - calm period
25 countries
locusts are usually present somewhere within
16 million km 2
( 1.6 billion ha )

6. Plague
50 countries
locusts invade up to 20% of Earth’s land mass
32 million km 2

7. adult
(swarms) 1
25 days egg
10 days
2
hopper
3 (bands)
40 days
Desert Locusts live 3 - 6 months

8. plague
control fails
good rains
upsurge rains fail
good control
control fails
good rains
outbreak decline
good rains
recession
plagues evolve

9. individual group band
GREGARIZATION
as hoppers increase they change their behaviour

10. individual group swarm
GREGARIZATION
as adults increase they change their behaviour

11. countries
irregular recessions and plagues
(1860 - 2011)

13. 2003 – 2005
the worst situation in 15 years
it took $500 million & Mother Nature to stop this

14. southern Mauritania invasion (early summer 2004)

15. northern Senegal invasion (early summer 2004)

16. Morocco invasion (October 2004)

17. Cairo invasion (17 November 2004)

18. the economics

19. 1,100 =
35,000
20
a1 km2 Desert Locust swarm
6
eats the same food in 1 day as ...

20. Paris
38 million/day
FRANCE/2 DAYS
New York City
42 million/day
USA/1 WEEK
Sydney
422 million/day
AUSTRALIA/1.5 HOURS

21. Control ops in 23 countries
October 2003 - November 2005
13 million hectares
ha

22. Emergency funding delay
US$ million
FAO appeal
$74.8m
4 months
50
funds received
7 months
9
FAO TCP
2004 2005

23. 13 - 200 control / ha
millions spent by
320 + 80 affected countries + FAO/donors
100 millions spent on food aid

24. 8.4 million
people affected in West Africa
80-100 % cereal loss
85-90 % legume loss
33-85 % pasture loss

25. Debt
household heads became indebted
60 % mauritania
45 % mali
33 % burkina faso

26. $90 million
food aid in West Africa, 2004
90 % burkina faso
75 % mali
65 % mauritania
households receiving aid

27. $1 million saves $100 million
$100M
$ millions after
12 months
$50M
after
10 months
$10M
after
$5M 7 months
$1M after
after 4 months the last plague in
1 month West Africa
2003 2004

28. $ 570 MILLION control operations
(2003-2005)
$ 3.3 MILLION annual cost
preventive control
W & NW Africa
170 years of preventive control

29. the solution

30. Desert Locust early warning system
FAO Desert Locust Information Service
National Locust Control Centre
National field teams

31. FAO Locust early warning network
front-line
secondary
invasion

32. Field data to National Locust Centre
Inmarsat
Internet server
GPS
2
satellite
transmission
lat/long
1
email
3
eLocust2 RAMSES

33. Internet access to field data in real time
latest position
see work rate
ID gaps
on your PC
24/7
secure

34. RAMSES
GIS at National Locust Centres
DATA DISPLAY
DATA ENTRY

35. SWARMS
GIS at FAO DLIS (Rome)

36. Locust Mapper
simple access to GIS data via Internet
www.fao.org/ag/locusts

37. informing people
calm
caution
threat
danger
www.fao.org/ag/locusts

38. advanced warning
provided by FAO/DLIS, Rome
warning reliability
outbreaks less than 1 month low-moderate
upsurges up to 3 months low
plagues up to 6 months moderate-high

39. Sustaining effective national surveillance ...
motivated individuals (energetic, curious)
well trained teams (survey, data collection)
well equipped teams (GPS, vehicles)
financial support (national budget, incentives)
becomes routine
teams receive feedback
data ownership

40. a successful early warning system
regular surveillance & accurate GPS field data
rapid data transmission & easy access
complete GIS analysis
simple well-targeted outputs
use social media
Keith Cressman www.fao.org/ag/locusts
Senior Locust Forecasting Officer, Rome www.facebook.com/faolocust
keith.cressman@fao.org twitter.com/faolocust