Climate Change is both a disruption, and opens opportunities in the Arctic: an integrated EU policy for the Arctic. Copernicus is a key tool for the EU Arctic policy, but dedicated capabilities are needed:EU’s Polar Expert Group (PEG) reports. The polar components of the Copernicus Services must be brought forward, taking into account stakeholders needs: EU KEPLER starts Jan. 2019, www.kepler-polar.eu.

1. Thomas Lavergne, Norwegian Meteorological Institute
thomas.lavergne@met.no
@lavergnetho
KEPLER - How to better
address the Arctic case?

2. The Arctic case
C3S
WMO
2017
Arctic’s temperature has risen
about twice the global average.
AMAP, SWIPA 2017
A shrinking sea-ice cover.
Prospects for sea-ice-free Arctic
Ocean during summer (IPCC 1.5C
SR 2018)
Surface-air temperature anomaly 2017

3. The Arctic case
WMO
2017
Snow Water Ice Permafrost in the
Arctic report (SWIPA, 2017): Over the
decades, the Arctic’s temperature
has risen about twice the global
average. Increasing concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
[...] triggers a cascade of feedbacks
that collectively amplify Arctic
warming.
Consequence and feedback: A shrinking
sea-ice cover.
“The twelve lowest extents in the satellite era
have all occurred in the last twelve years”....
NSIDC and WMO (2018)
There is high confidence that the probability of a
sea-ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer is
substantially higher at 2°C when compared to
1.5°C. IPCC 1.5C SR (2018)
An integrated EU policy for the Arctic, Apr 2016

4. Space for the Arctic
The Arctic, far “at the top of the World”, in red: EUSW18
October 15th 2018
Ship traffic (Map: Tufts Univ / Woods Hole)

5. Space for the Arctic
The Arctic, far “at the top of the World”, in red: EUSW18
October 15th 2018
Copernicus Sentinel-1 A+B 24h (www.seaice.dk)

6. Space for the Arctic
October 15th 2018
Even with 2 sats, no complete sub-daily mapping.
Polar metocean forecast will implement coupled model systems.
They will ingest integrated ocean and sea-ice space observations.
High resolution and high-repeat needed.
Valid both at Copernicus and National levels.

7. Space for the Arctic
October 15th 2018
EU Polar Expert Group (PEG) reports:
● PEG1: User Requirements and Priorities;
● PEG2: High-level mission requirements

8. A project funded under LC-SPACE-02-EO-2018
2019-01-01 to 2021-03-31
Nick Hughes
nick.hughes@met.no
Leader of Norwegian Ice Service
WMO JCOMM Expert Team on Sea Ice
Chair of European Ice Services
Key Environmental monitoring for Polar Latitudes
and European Readiness

9. Who we are
Operational Ice Services
Copernicus Services
Forecasting Development
Terrestrial
Monitoring
Maritime
Monitoring

10. ● 2.25 years, €2.9 million, 15 partner Horizon 2020 Coordination & Support Action, starting January 2019
● Call topic
○ Develop the roadmap for a mature European capacity for monitoring the Polar Regions, notably the Arctic,
specifically for sea ice and environmental conditions
○ Bring the polar component of the CMEMS, C3S, CAMS, and CLMS services a step beyond
the present state of art, and increase the user base
● 6 themes, based on the recommendations from the Copernicus User Uptake review
1. Raising awareness for the Copernicus programme,
2. Informing and educating Copernicus users,
3. Engaging Copernicus users in public and private sector, and
4. Enabling access to Copernicus data and information,
5. Identification of research gaps regarding integration/assimilation, and
6. Improved sea-ice mapping and forecasting.
Overview

11. Stakeholder Needs for the evolution
of the Copernicus Services
● Identification and understanding user needs for Copernicus in the Polar Regions
○ Helps engage and strengthen public support for the programme
● KEPLER’s role
○ Identification of research and capacity gaps
○ Bring the polar component of the Copernicus Services forward
○ Support EU to prepare the Arctic and polar component of Copernicus 2.0

12. thomas.lavergne@met.no @lavergnetho
KEPLER - How to better address the Arctic case?
● Climate Change is both a disruption, and opens opportunities in the Arctic.
=> an integrated EU policy for the Arctic
● Copernicus is a key tool for the EU Arctic policy, but dedicated capabilities are needed.
=> EU’s Polar Expert Group (PEG) reports
● The polar components of the Copernicus Services must be brought forward, taking into
account stakeholders needs.
=> EU KEPLER starts Jan. 2019, www.kepler-polar.eu @KeplerEU
Take home messages