Ханс-Отто Портнер, сопредседательрабочейгруппыII

1. From the Fifth to the Sixth IPCC Assessment Cycle:
Looking ahead to the Special Report
on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
IPCC SROCC • Kazan • 5 March 2019
Hans-Otto Pörtner, IPCC WGII Co-Chair
Photo: Miriam Duran, Unsplash

2. The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Global Context
The Ocean...
• covers more than 70% of the Earth‘s surface
• plays a key role in climate regulation,
the weather system and the global carbon cycle
• carries about 50% of global primary production
and oxygen production
• supports immense biodiversity
• provides important social and economic goods
and services such as tourism, fisheries,
transport (90% of the world‘s goods), etc.

3. The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Global Context
The Cryosphere (“Frozen World“)...
• forms about 2% of the world‘s water storage
• about 11% of the world‘s land surface and
7% of ocean surface are covered with
multi-year snow and ice
• includes the Antarctic and Greenland ice
sheets, sea ice, snow covers, mountain glaciers
and ground ice
• plays a key role in river runoff, for sea level
rise, for exchanges between the ocean and the
atmosphere, permafrost methane storage, etc.

4. AR5 2014: Oceans and cryosphere are changing

5. Our Ocean is changing
WGII AR5 Figure 6-2

6. Our Ocean is changing
ocean acidification and
deoxygenation will
continue to increase in
the 21st century
global mean sea level
will continue to rise
in the 21st century
and beyond
Arctic sea ice cover
will very likely continue
to shrink and thin
The ocean
will continue to warm
in the 21st century
Sources: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on Global
Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), Summary for Policymakers

7. Verons 2009
Warm water coral reefs under various pressures
Vulnerable ecosystem identified in AR5 and SR1.5
0.8 to 1.0°COBSERVATIONS
2016
Even in a 1.5°C warmer
world.... high risk of losing
70 to 90% of coral reefs
and their services to
humankind; … even
higher losses at 2°C
1.5°C
2.0°C
2006-
2015
Assessing risk of global warming
low very highmod. high
Risk level

8. Our Ocean is changing
DISTRIBUTIONCHANGE
(KmperDecade)
-20
0
20
400
Standard Error
Mean
Standard Error
(359)
100
Sources: AR5 WGII, SPM.2

9. Our Ocean is changing
Drivers of change: Warming and velocity...
+2°C
RCP4.5 versus 8.5
Ultimate Heat limits surpassed in the Tropics
+4°C
Large changes in community composition expected
driven by local invasions and losses
Garcia-Molinos et al.
2017 NCC
RCP 4.5
RCP 8.5
Marine biodiversity

10. The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and
Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)
July 2015: IPCC member governments were invited to submit proposals
for Special Reports to be prepared during the Sixth Assessment Cycle
• 31 proposals were submitted, 7 on aspects of ocean and cryosphere
April 2016: IPCC Panel agreed
• to consider a special report on climate change, oceans and
cryosphere to inform adaptation activities and policy decisions
• to be developed under joint scientific leadership of Working Group I
(“The Physical Science Basis”) and Working Group II (“Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability”)
December 2016: Scoping Meeting in Monaco (62 experts)
March 2017: outline agreed and adopted by the IPCC Panel

11. Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in
a Changing Climate (SROCC)
1. Framing and Context of the Report
2. High Mountain Areas
3. Polar Regions
4. Sea level rise and implications for low lying islands, coasts and
communities
5. Changing ocean, marine ecosystems, and dependent communities
6. Extremes, abrupt changes and managing risks
+ Cross-chapter box: Low lying islands and coasts

12. The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and
Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)
• Provides a focussed cross-cutting assessment of
• the role of oceans and cryosphere in the climate
system - observed and projected changes in oceans
and cryosphere, ocean cryosphere interactions
• risks, vulnerabilities, impacts, implications of climate-
related changes in the ocean and cryosphere for
ecosystems and human systems, e.g. sea level rise
• resilience pathways and adaptation options
• present new and updated information for decision-makers to
inform the design and implementation of appropriate policies
and actions.

13. Increasing risk
associated with
high sea level
SYR 2.5
However.....
Contribution of
Antarctic ice sheet
likely underestimated
AR5 SYR 2014:
Ocean
cryosphere
interactions

14. Chapter # or Title of the meeting
Author Meetings of the Special Report on the
Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
LAM2
Quito (Ecuador)
Feb 2018
LAM1
Nadi (Fiji)
Oct 2017
LAM3
Lanzhou (China)
July 2018
LAM4 Kazan
(Russian Federation)
Mar 2019

15. Timeline for the Special Report on the Ocean and
Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)
• 130 scientists from 37 countries
• 2 IPCC Working Groups
• 4 Lead Author Meetings (LAMs)
• 3 Expert and Government Reviews
• 195 member governments participating in the Approval Session

16. Thank you for your attention...
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