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From the Fifth to the Sixth IPCC Assessment Cycle:
Looking ahead to the Special Report
on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Ch...
The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Global Context
The Ocean...
• covers more than 70% of the Earth‘s surface
• plays a key role...
The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Global Context
The Cryosphere (“Frozen World“)...
• forms about 2% of the world‘s water stor...
AR5 2014: Oceans and cryosphere are changing
Our Ocean is changing
WGII AR5 Figure 6-2
Our Ocean is changing
ocean acidification and
deoxygenation will
continue to increase in
the 21st century
global mean sea ...
Verons 2009
Warm water coral reefs under various pressures
Vulnerable ecosystem identified in AR5 and SR1.5
0.8 to 1.0°COB...
Our Ocean is changing
DISTRIBUTIONCHANGE
(KmperDecade)
-20
0
20
400
Standard Error
Mean
Standard Error
(359)
100
Sources: ...
Our Ocean is changing
Drivers of change: Warming and velocity...
+2°C
RCP4.5 versus 8.5
Ultimate Heat limits surpassed in ...
The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and
Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)
July 2015: IPCC member governments were ...
Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in
a Changing Climate (SROCC)
1. Framing and Context of the Report
2. High Moun...
The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and
Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)
• Provides a focussed cross-cutting asse...
Increasing risk
associated with
high sea level
SYR 2.5
However.....
Contribution of
Antarctic ice sheet
likely underestima...
Chapter # or Title of the meeting
Author Meetings of the Special Report on the
Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
...
Timeline for the Special Report on the Ocean and
Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)
• 130 scientists from 37 countri...
Thank you for your attention...
facebook.com/ipcc
@ipcc_ch
instagram.com/ipcc
…and stay tuned!
tsu@ipcc-wg2.awi.de
#SROCC ...
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От пятого до шестого оценочного цикла с упоромна Специальный доклад по океану и криосфере в изменяющемся климате(CРОКК)

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Ханс-Отто Портнер, сопредседательрабочейгруппыII

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От пятого до шестого оценочного цикла с упоромна Специальный доклад по океану и криосфере в изменяющемся климате(CРОКК)

  1. 1. From the Fifth to the Sixth IPCC Assessment Cycle: Looking ahead to the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate IPCC SROCC • Kazan • 5 March 2019 Hans-Otto Pörtner, IPCC WGII Co-Chair Photo: Miriam Duran, Unsplash
  2. 2. The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Global Context The Ocean... • covers more than 70% of the Earth‘s surface • plays a key role in climate regulation, the weather system and the global carbon cycle • carries about 50% of global primary production and oxygen production • supports immense biodiversity • provides important social and economic goods and services such as tourism, fisheries, transport (90% of the world‘s goods), etc.
  3. 3. The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Global Context The Cryosphere (“Frozen World“)... • forms about 2% of the world‘s water storage • about 11% of the world‘s land surface and 7% of ocean surface are covered with multi-year snow and ice • includes the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, sea ice, snow covers, mountain glaciers and ground ice • plays a key role in river runoff, for sea level rise, for exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere, permafrost methane storage, etc.
  4. 4. AR5 2014: Oceans and cryosphere are changing
  5. 5. Our Ocean is changing WGII AR5 Figure 6-2
  6. 6. Our Ocean is changing ocean acidification and deoxygenation will continue to increase in the 21st century global mean sea level will continue to rise in the 21st century and beyond Arctic sea ice cover will very likely continue to shrink and thin The ocean will continue to warm in the 21st century Sources: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), Summary for Policymakers
  7. 7. Verons 2009 Warm water coral reefs under various pressures Vulnerable ecosystem identified in AR5 and SR1.5 0.8 to 1.0°COBSERVATIONS 2016 Even in a 1.5°C warmer world.... high risk of losing 70 to 90% of coral reefs and their services to humankind; … even higher losses at 2°C 1.5°C 2.0°C 2006- 2015 Assessing risk of global warming low very highmod. high Risk level
  8. 8. Our Ocean is changing DISTRIBUTIONCHANGE (KmperDecade) -20 0 20 400 Standard Error Mean Standard Error (359) 100 Sources: AR5 WGII, SPM.2
  9. 9. Our Ocean is changing Drivers of change: Warming and velocity... +2°C RCP4.5 versus 8.5 Ultimate Heat limits surpassed in the Tropics +4°C Large changes in community composition expected driven by local invasions and losses Garcia-Molinos et al. 2017 NCC RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 Marine biodiversity
  10. 10. The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) July 2015: IPCC member governments were invited to submit proposals for Special Reports to be prepared during the Sixth Assessment Cycle • 31 proposals were submitted, 7 on aspects of ocean and cryosphere April 2016: IPCC Panel agreed • to consider a special report on climate change, oceans and cryosphere to inform adaptation activities and policy decisions • to be developed under joint scientific leadership of Working Group I (“The Physical Science Basis”) and Working Group II (“Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”) December 2016: Scoping Meeting in Monaco (62 experts) March 2017: outline agreed and adopted by the IPCC Panel
  11. 11. Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) 1. Framing and Context of the Report 2. High Mountain Areas 3. Polar Regions 4. Sea level rise and implications for low lying islands, coasts and communities 5. Changing ocean, marine ecosystems, and dependent communities 6. Extremes, abrupt changes and managing risks + Cross-chapter box: Low lying islands and coasts
  12. 12. The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) • Provides a focussed cross-cutting assessment of • the role of oceans and cryosphere in the climate system - observed and projected changes in oceans and cryosphere, ocean cryosphere interactions • risks, vulnerabilities, impacts, implications of climate- related changes in the ocean and cryosphere for ecosystems and human systems, e.g. sea level rise • resilience pathways and adaptation options • present new and updated information for decision-makers to inform the design and implementation of appropriate policies and actions.
  13. 13. Increasing risk associated with high sea level SYR 2.5 However..... Contribution of Antarctic ice sheet likely underestimated AR5 SYR 2014: Ocean cryosphere interactions
  14. 14. Chapter # or Title of the meeting Author Meetings of the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate LAM2 Quito (Ecuador) Feb 2018 LAM1 Nadi (Fiji) Oct 2017 LAM3 Lanzhou (China) July 2018 LAM4 Kazan (Russian Federation) Mar 2019
  15. 15. Timeline for the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) • 130 scientists from 37 countries • 2 IPCC Working Groups • 4 Lead Author Meetings (LAMs) • 3 Expert and Government Reviews • 195 member governments participating in the Approval Session
  16. 16. Thank you for your attention... facebook.com/ipcc @ipcc_ch instagram.com/ipcc …and stay tuned! tsu@ipcc-wg2.awi.de #SROCC #IPCCinKazan

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