AR5 Highlights - Working Group I

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Presentation by Thomas Stocker during IPCC Outreach Event, Nairobi, Kenya (23 February 2015)

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  • AR5: TCR = 1.0 to 2.5 °C (likely range; high confidence); extremely unlikely larger than 3°C

    AR5: ECS = 1.5 to 4.5 °C (likely range; high confidence); extremely unlikely less than 1°C (high confidence); very unlikely greater than 6°C (medium confidence)
  • bis 2011: 515 GtC (IPCC AR5)
    2012: 9.6 GtC
    2013: 9.9 GtC

    Total 534.5 GtC
  • AR5 Highlights - Working Group I

    1. 1. © Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe Co-Chairs IPCC Working Group I Switzerland and China Highlights: Climate Change 2013 The Physical Science Basis
    2. 2. Key SPM Messages 19 Headlines on less than 2 Pages 2 14 Chapters & Atlas 1,100,000 Words Summary for Policymakers 14,000 Words
    3. 3. Human influence on the climate system is clear. Continued GHG emissions will cause further warming and amplify existing risks. Changes in climate have caused impacts in natural and human systems. Multiple pathways exist to likely limit warming to below 2°C.
    4. 4. 4 Observations Understanding Future
    5. 5. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal IPCC2013,Fig.SPM.1b Temperature Difference 1901 to 2012 based on trend (°C)
    6. 6. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal IPCC2013,Fig.SPM.2 Precipitation Difference 1951 to 2010 based on trend (mm/yr per decade)
    7. 7. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal IPCC2013,Fig.SPM.2 Precipitation Difference 1951 to 2010 based on trend (mm/yr per decade)
    8. 8. atmosphere, land, ocean extreme events global water cycle global mean sea level Human influence on the climate system is clear. sea ice, glaciers, ice sheets Cause Worldwide Effects
    9. 9. IPCC2013,Fig.SPM.7a Global mean surface temperature change from 1986-2005 Continued emissions will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system.
    10. 10. IPCC2013,Fig.SPM.8a Continued emissions will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Change in average surface temperature (1986-2005 to 2081-2100) RCP8.5
    11. 11. RCP 2.6 (annual) RCP 8.5 (annual) IPCC 2013: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Changes in East Africa (2081-2100)
    12. 12. IPCC2012,Fig.SPM.4A A 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century  10 more frequent
    13. 13. Warming of 0.8 to 2.5°C 1000 billion tons of carbon Any climate target implies a limited carbon budget
    14. 14. IPCC2013,Fig.SPM.10 790 bill. t C 2°C
    15. 15. Budget for 2°C target: 790 bill. t C CO2 emissions until 2014*: −545 bill. t C CO2 emissions in 2014 *: 10.1 bill. t C Remaining emissions: 245 bill. t C Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. * updated from WGI SPM
    16. 16. 2°C world
    17. 17. 4.5°C world2°C world Today we have a choice.

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