Gccsi japan members'_meeting_200613_akira-yasui_japan_gov

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Global CCS Institute Meeting 20 June 2013. Opening address by Mr Akira Yasui, Director, Coal Division, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Japan.

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Gccsi japan members'_meeting_200613_akira-yasui_japan_gov

  1. 1. Direction of coal policy in Japan June 20, 2013 Akira Yasui Director of Coal Division, Natural Resources and Fuel Department, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
  2. 2. 1. Energy policy in Japan 1
  3. 3. Reduction of dependence on oil has been promoted after the Oil Shock. * Breakdown of renewable energy, etc.: Solar (0.1%), wind (0.2%), geothermal (0.1%), biomass, etc. (3.3%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear power Coal 43% 4%* 3% 4% 23% 22% Japan’s Primary Energy Supply 75% Hydro Renewables etc. Change of energy supply ratios 2 First Oil Shock
  4. 4. Crude oil (2012) Natural gas (2012) Ref.: Trade statistics, Ministry of Finance Ref.: Trade statistics, Ministry of Finance Coal (2012) Countries from which Japan imports fossil fuels 3 Straits of Hormuz Ref.: Trade statistics, Ministry of Finance 120.7 79.9 39.3 28.0 19.1 7.0 10.5 17.2 13.6 8.3 22.2 Saudi Arabia 33.0% UAE 21.8% Qatar 10.7% Kuwait 7.6% Iran 5.2% Iraq 1.9% Oman 2.9% Russia 4.7% Indonesia 3.7% Vietnam 2.3% Others 6.1% 15.7 5.5 4.0 15.9 14.6 8.3 6.2 5.9 4.8 6.2 Qatar 17.9% UAE 6.3% Oman 4.6% Malaysia 18.2% Australia 16.7% Indonesia 9.5% Russia 7.1% Brunei 6.8% Nigeria 5.5% Others 7.1% 114.8 36.1 12.5 9.9 6.3 3.5 2.2 Australia 62.0% Indonesia 19.5% Russia 6.7% Canada 5.3% US 3.4% China 1.9% Others 1.2% Middle-East dependence 83% (Hormuz dependence 80%) Total import: 3.66 million BD Middle-East dependence 29% (Hormuz dependence 24%) Total import: 87.31 million t/year Middle-East dependence 0% (Hormuz dependence 0%) Total import: 185.15 million t/year
  5. 5. (Reference) Change of fuel price ○ In comparison to crude oil and LNG, the change of the coal price has been stable. ○ As of April 2013, the crude oil price (7.36yen/1000kcal) is about 4.1 times higher and the LNG price (6.32/1000kcal) is about 3.5 times higher than the coal price (1.81 yen/1000kcal). (Yen/1000kcal) Change of fuel price (CIF) Ref: The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan 4 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 原油 一般炭 LNGOil General coal LNG
  6. 6. ○ Change of power supply sources of (general and wholesale) power generation companies after the Earthquake ○ Fuel cost increase by termination of nuclear power plants 20% 25% 26% 25% 20% 27% 26% 26% 23% 38% 41% 42% 47% 50% 46% 48% 48% 32% 5% 7% 13% 17% 16% 13% 16% 18% 5% 28% 16% 10% 5% 1% 1% 3% 2% 32% 9% 11% 8% 5% 12% 12% 7% 6% 8% 63% 73% 81% 90% 87% 87% 90% 92% 28% 16% 10% 5% 1% 1% 3% 2% 11年4月 7月 10月 12年1月 4月 7月 10月 13年1月 10年度 石炭火力発電比率 LNG火力発電比率 石油火力発電比率 原子力発電比率 水力発電等 火力発電比率 原子力発電比率 Apr 2011 Jul Oct Jan 2012 Apr Jul Oct Jan 2013 FY2010 * For FY2013, the influence to cost is calculated by correcting the exchange rate used for the estimation in FY2012 to the current value of 100 yen/dollar and assuming that the operation status of the nuclear power plants would not change in FY2013 from FY2012. ○ No operating nuclear power plants →About 30% loss of power supply, Tight balance between demand and supply ○ Due to stop of nuclear power plants, the fuel cost for thermal power generation is expected to increase by about 3.8 trillion yen in FY2013, which is about 20% of electricity prices ○ The cost would increase more if the oil price increases by a tense situation in Hormuz. Power generation after the Earthquake 5 Power source Fuel cost (FY2012) Influence to cost Expectation in FY2012 Expectation in FY2013 (*) Nuclear power 1 yen/kWh - 0.3 trillion yen - 0.3 trillion yen Coal 4 yen/kWh + 0.1 trillion yen + 0.1 trillion yen LNG 11 yen/kWh + 1.4 trillion yen + 1.6 trillion yen Oil 16 yen/kWh + 1.9 trillion yen + 2.4 trillion yen Total - + 3.1 trillion yen + 3.8 trillion yen Coal thermal power generation Water power generation LNG thermal power generation Thermal power generation Oil thermal power generation Nuclear power generation Nuclear power generation
  7. 7. Change of thermal power generation ○ In 2030, about 30% of coal thermal power plants, about 50% of LNG thermal power plants, and about 90% of oil thermal power plants will be 40 years old since the start of the operation. ○ As mentioned before, 3 coal thermal plants of 2.2 million kW and 30 LNG thermal power plants of 15.9 million power plants will be built. There is no plan for building a coal thermal power plant. ○ The plants need to be renewed according to their ages for higher efficiency and reliability. ○ In “Action principle for coal” adopted in the 3rd IEA Ministerial Council Communiqué in 1979 , new construction or replacement of an oil thermal base-load power plant is prohibited. 16 57 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Number of plants10000 kW Coal thermal power 出力(40年超) 出力(40年未満) 基数(40年超) 7% 10% 12% 32% 77% 29 88 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Number of plants10000 kW LNG thermal power 出力(40年超) 出力(40年未満) 基数(40年超) 17% 26% 37% 52% 84% 54 126 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Number of plants 10000 kW Oil thermal power 出力(40年超) 出力(40年未満) 基数(40年超) 36% 56% 73% 96% 99% 6 Output (40 yr or older) Output (younger than 40 yr) Number of plants (40 yr or older) Output (40 yr or older) Output (younger than 40 yr) Number of plants (40 yr or older) Output (40 yr or older) Output (younger than 40 yr) Number of plants (40 yr or older)
  8. 8. 7 0 10 20 30 40 50 Nuclear Coal-fired (new policy scenario) LNG-fired (new policy scenario) Wind power (onshore) Oil-fired Solar (residential) Geothermal [capacity utilization rate (%) /useful years ] [70%/40 yr] [80%/40 yr] [80%/40 yr] [20%/20 yr] [80%/40 yr] [50% or 10% /40 yr] (30% in 2004 estimates) [12%/20 yr] (35 yr in 2030 model) Gas cogeneration (before deduction of heat value) [70%/30 yr] 5.9 8.9- (2010=2030) 10.3 ↑ 9.5 10.9 ↑ 10.7 9.9- 17.3 ↓ 8.8- 17.3 9.2- 11.6 (2010= 2030) 11.5 ↑ 10.6 33.4- 38.3 ↓ 9.9- 20.0 5.7 6.2 Energy saving A/C: 7.9-23.4 Fridge: 1.5-13.4 Incandesce nt lamp  LED 0.1 <Legends> 2004 estimates 2010 model 2030 model Upper limit Lower limit Upper limit Lower limit 20.1 ↑ 19.7 (before deduction of heat value) Wind power (off-shore) [30%/20 yr] 9.4- 23.1 ↓ 8.6- 23.1 ○Even more attractive to power consumers when savings in electricity fees (¥20 for households, ¥14 for commercial/industrial customers) are considered. (4) Solar : ¥10-20 (5) Distributed power sources around ¥10-20 ○Incurs social costs, e.g. cost to prepare for the risk of accidents. ○¥8.9/kWh or more ○Increases with fuel costs and CO2 emission measures. ○As competitive as nuclear energy. ○Competitive even in at present if conditions are favorable. ○The following constraints apply to large-scale installations. ・Higher transmission costs for wind power due to concentration of plants in Hokkaido and Tohoku ・Constraints on geothermal heat, e.g. concentration in natural parks (1) Nuclear approx. ¥9 or more (2) Coal & LNG in the ¥10 range (3) Wind & geothermal ¥10 or less in some cases even now ○For large-scale installations, backup by auxiliary power supply or storage batteries is needed. [¥/kWh] 16.5 38.9 ↑ 36.0 (10%) 25.1 ↑ 22.1 (50%) Power Generation Cost Comparison Among Major Power Sources
  9. 9. 2. Ensuring stable supply of coal resource 8
  10. 10. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 再生可能エネルギー等 水力 原子力 天然ガス 石油 石炭 Role of coal in world’s energy resources ○ Coal occupies about 25% of the energy demand in the world. The demand for coal is expected to increase by about 1.2 times by 2035. Coal occupies more than 40% of generated power in the world. The amount is expected to increase by 1.4 times by 2035. ○ Competition for acquiring coal resources has become severe in the world due to rapid expansion of the coal demand in developing countries such as China and India. [Expectation of energy demand in the world] [Expectation of power generation in the world] Ref.: IEA, “World Energy Outlook 2012” [Power generation composition of major countries (2010) ][Primary energy composition of major countries (2010)] 41% Increase by a factor of about 1.4 Source: IEA, "World Energy Outlook 2012"& "Energy Balances of OECD/non-OECD Countries (2012 Edition)" Source: IEA, "World Energy Outlook 2012"& "Energy Balances of OECD/non-OECD Countries (2012 Edition)" Ref. IEA, “World Energy Outlook 2012” (TWh) 33% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 再生可能エネルギー等 水力 原子力 天然ガス 石油 石炭 27% 25%Increase by a factor of about 1.2 (Mtoe) 41% 5% 29% 44% 26% 27% 46% 68% 78% 5% 1% 1% 1% 3% 9% 1% 3% 0% 22% 4% 46% 14% 23% 27% 23% 12% 2% 13% 76% 16% 23% 28% 26% 19% 3% 2% 16% 11% 1% 3% 11% 7% 6% 12% 17% 4% 3% 6% 15% 10% 3% 4% 2% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 世界計 フランス 英国 ドイツ EU 日本 米国 インド 中国 石炭 石油 天然ガス 原子力 水力 再生可能エネルギー等 27% 5% 15% 24% 16% 23% 23% 42% 66% 32% 29% 31% 32% 33% 41% 36% 23% 18% 21% 16% 42% 22% 26% 17% 25% 8% 4% 6% 43% 8% 11% 14% 15% 10% 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 3% 11% 5% 4% 10% 9% 2% 5% 25% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 世界計 フランス 英国 ドイツ EU 日本 米国 インド 中国 石炭 石油 天然ガス 原子力 水力 再生可能エネルギー等 9 Renewable energy, etc. Water Nuclear power Natural gas Oil Coal Renewable energy, etc. Water Nuclear power Natural gas Oil Coal China India US Japan EU Germany UK France World total Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear power Water Renewable energy, etc. Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear power Water Renewable energy, etc. China India US Japan EU Germany UK France World total
  11. 11. Ref.: WEC, “Survey of Energy Resources 2010,” BP Statistics 2010 94% 6% 9% 91% 0% 100% South Africa (30.2 billion t) 46% 41% 13% US (237.3 billion t) 89% 11% Other African countries (1.5 billion t) Canada (6.6 billion t) Columbia (6.7 billion t) Other South American countries (5.8 billion t) 93% 7% 54%30% 16% China (114.5 billion t ) India (60.6 billion t) Indonesia 5.5 billion t) 53% 2% 45% Other Asian countries (47.6 billion t) 31% 62% 7% Russia (157 billion t) 19 % 17 % 64 % Europe (10.8 billion t) 48% 3% 49% Australia (76.4 billion t) 27% 53% 20% 53% 13% 34% Bituminous coal + anthracite (47.0%) Lignite (22.7%) Subbituminous coal (30.3%) Recoverable reserves distribution of coal (country and grade) 10
  12. 12. US 237.3 billion t 28% Russia 157 billion t 18% China 114.5 billion t 13% Australia 76.4 billion t 9% India 60.6 billion t 7% Germany 40.7 billion t 5% Ukraine 33.9 billion t 4% Kazakhstan 33.6 billion t 4% South Africa 30.2 billion t 3% South Africa 30.2 billion t 9% Australia 115 million t 62% Indonesia 36 million t 20% Russia 12 million t 7% Canada 10 million t 5% US 6 million t 3% China 3 million t 2% Others 2 million t 1% Coal import 185.15 million t (2012) Coal resources, consumption, trade volume ○ Coal resource: World top 5 1 US 2 Russia 3 China 4 Australia 5 India ○ Coal consumption: World top 3 1 China 3.7 billion t 2 US 0.9 billion t 3 India 0.7 billion t Coal reserve (2011) incl. lignite Coal consumption (2011) incl. lignite Coal import in the world (2011), incl. lignite 75% of entire resource 69% of entire resource ○ Japan’s coal import volume (2012): About 185.15 million ton [2010: About 175.24 million t] *Coal import in 2012: General coal: About 177.2 million t, Raw coal: About 71.47 million t, Anthracite: About 5.96 million t. ○ About 80% of coal import is from Australia (62%) and Indonesia (20%). ○ Japan is the second largest coal importing country after China. It imports 99% of coal consumed in Japan. (About 1.3 million tons of coal is produced in Japan (2012), which is about 1% of the domestic consumption.) ○ The demand of general coal for electric use is rapidly increasing in the world, in particular in China and India, in recent years. ○ The world trade volume is about 1.1 billion tons, 17% of which is imported by Japan. -The world trade volume of coal is about 15% of entire production volume of coal. (Coal is produced and consumed locally, in principle.) Ref.: IEA Coal Information2012Ref. :BP Statistics 2012 Recoverable reserves 860.9 billion t (2011) China 3.65 billion t 48% US 0.93 billion t 12% India 0.69 billion t 9%Russia 0.23 billion t 3% Germany 0.23 billion t 3% South Africa 0.18 billion t 2% Japan 0.17 billion t 2% Poland 150 million t 2% Korea 130 million t 2% Australia 120 million t 2% Others 1.15 billion t 15% Coal consumption 7,627.76 million t (estimate in 2011) Countries from which Japan imports coal (2012) Ref.: Trade statistics, Ministry of Finance Japan 175 million t 17 % China 191 million t 18 % India 106 million t 10 % Korea 129 million t 12 % Taiwan 63 million t 6 % Germany 41 million t 4 % UK 33 million t 3 % Russia 25 million t 2 % Spain 16 million t 2 % France 15 million t 1 % Others 309 million t 30 % Coal import 1,102.41 million t (estimate in 2011) 11
  13. 13. 12 Change of coal resource price (in case of long-term contract) 53.5 53.5 50.95 41.9 39.75 42.7548.1 46.2 57.2 125 115 97 300 128.5 200 225 209 225 330 315 285 206 225 170 165 172 40.3 37.65 34.5 29.95 28.75 34.5 31.85 26.75 45 53 52.5 55.5 125 69 98 98 98 98 130 130 130 130 115 115 115 115 95 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 US$/t Fiscal year <Change in long-term contract price of coal> 原料炭 一般炭 ○ The long-term contract price of coal had not changed much but in recent years it has been increasing because of the increase of the coal demand in the world, in particular in Asia, and because of the shortage of the coal export infrastructure capacity in Australia. ○ The price has been hovering at a high level in recent years due to natural disasters in the coal countries and due to the rapid increase of the coal demand in China and India. However in very recent years, the price starts decreasing because of the worldwide economic recession and the excessive energy supply due to increased production of shale gas. *FOB price of typical Australian coal (1) Increase by coal demand increase in China, India, etc. (2) Increase by paralyzed traffic in China due to heavy snow Sudden drop by worldwide recession starting from the subprime loans problem (1)Production stop at a coal mine due to rain in QLD state, Australia (2) Paralyzed traffic and temporary stop of export in China due to snow Decrease by production increase in Australia and Canada Increase by global coal supply-demand imbalance Increase by short supply due to rain from December 2010 1st quarter in FY2013 Decrease by excess of supply due to global economic recession Raw coal General coal
  14. 14. Coal situation ○Mongolia - Has high quality raw coal. Transportation via Russia and China. - Railway, power plant ○Russia - Expected as mid-term stable coal supplying country. It also has rich resources (the world’s second richest.) - Railway, port ○Mozambique - NIPPON STEEL CORPORATION acquired interest, supporting development of high-quality raw coal. - Port, railway ○Indonesia - The world’s largest coal exporting country. The second largest coal supplying country for Japan and will continue being an important country. ○Australia - The largest coal supplying country for Japan. Increase in labor costs. Environmental regulation. ○Columbia - Evaluated as new supplier after the expansion of Panama Canal ○US, Canada - Re-evaluated as coal supplier by their shale gas revolution. The world’s largest reserves of coal. 0 50 100 150 200 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11* 輸入量 輸出量 Change of long-term contract price ($/t) (年度) (年) Change of import/export in China(百万t) Important areas for our securing coal resources ○ Coal is important as a raw material for iron making (i.e. raw coal) for steel industry. Coal is also necessary as fuel material (i.e. general coal) for coal thermal power generation which occupies 25% of entire energy supply. Stable supply of coal is therefore critical. ○ (1) Increase of coal demand in new developing countries such as China and India, (2) Coal supply instability occurred due to natural disasters in Australia, etc., from which 60% of coal is imported. It is therefore necessary to secure stable suppliers other than Australia or Indonesia. Mozambique is currently the most important supplier country of raw coal. It is essential to support the development of large-scale railways and port infrastructure that are necessary for coal transport. 13 Coal import in 2012 0 100 200 300 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 原料炭 一般炭 Australia 62% Indonesia 20% Canada 5% US 3% Others 1% China 2% Russia 7% Coal import 185.15 million t Million (t) Import Export (Year) Raw coal General coal (FY)
  15. 15. Direction of future activities for coal resource securing strategy 14 Enhancement of importance - General coal for power generation and raw coal for iron making, etc. Enhancement of supply risks - Increase of demand and import in China and India - Oligopoly by resource major companies - ”Ship congestion problem” - Increase of price and cost of acquiring interest Diversification of supply countries ○ New supply from Mozambique , Mongolia, Russia, etc. and re-examination of supply from US and Canada Link to infrastructure development of railways and ports ○ Mozambique, Mongolia, etc. require us to join the infrastructure development of transportation such as railways and ports, electric power supply facilities, industrial water supply, waste water facilities, and shipping facilities. Link to export of a clean coal technology for coal thermal power generation ○ With the countries that have a coal resource as well as consume a large amount of coal, such as Australia, Indonesia, India, etc., collaborative relationship will be established for package-type infrastructure export of the technologies of making the coal thermal power generation more efficient and cleaner to secure stable supply and relax the global supply-demand balance. Development of support system ○ Development support for coal resource as well as metallic mineral by JOGMEC Coal will continue to be an important resource from a viewpoint of stable energy supply and industrial competitiveness, but various risks of the supply are emerging. For future supply of coal, not only the diversification of the coal supply countries and the development of a support system but also the collaboration with infrastructure development of railways and ports and with the export of a clean coal technology of coal thermal power generation are becoming important. Direction of future activities
  16. 16. 3. Promotion of coal use technologies 15
  17. 17. Low-carbon coal thermal power generation Multi-use of low-grade coal to relax supply- demand balance Environment al measure Lower carbon of foreign coal thermal power generation by technology transfer Development and introduction of liquefaction and gasification technologies Development and introduction of improvement technology Zero emission Coal power plant technology transfer Support for system export (O&M) Liquefactionandgasification technologydevelopment accordingtotheenergy supply-demandbalancein coalcountries Development of drying performance improvement technology Collection after combustion Collectionbefore combustion Coal gasification technology Liquefaction and slurrying technology Lignite drying technology Lignite quality improvement technology Survey of effective use of coal ash Cleancoaltechnologydevelopment(Reductionofminorcomponentinfluence) Integrated coal gasification combined power generation (IGCC) Coalgasificationfuelbattery combinedpowergeneration (IGFC) Advanced integrated coal gasification combined power generation (A- IGCC/A-IGFC) Callide oxyfuel project Clean coal technology development (physical collection method) Eco-Pro FS (finished) Technological development of making unused coal a usable resource (finished) Clean methane production technology study Hot water treating slurry technology High-efficiency lignite drying system study (finished) Low-grade coal quality improvement technology (UBC) (finished) Advanced ultra supercritical pressure thermal power generation (A-USC) Nakoso IGCC project (finished) CO2 separation and collectiontechnology Lignite slurrying technology SNG production technology Partial coal hydropyrolysis Lignite drying technology Lignite briquette technology Specific project EAGLE project (finished) Osaki Cool Gen Project Clean coal technology development (Basic research) InternationalcooperationprojectforCCTtechnologiestorespondclimatechange Survey of system formation for highly efficient use of coal Technology sector Individual technologyAim Zero Gen FS (finished) Matsushima project (completed) General industrial boiler CO2 collection FS (finished) Hydrogenation thermal decomposition technology development (finished) A-USC element technology development Hydrogen Chain FS (finished) Lower carbon, and zero emission of domestic coal thermal power generation High efficiency Environmental measure technology Clean coal technology development (Total FS) (finished) Experimental project of multi-use technology of gasified low-grade coal CO2 collection type IGCC Pulverized coal thermal power generation technology Coal gasificationcombined power generation technology Oxygen burning Policy system of clean coal technology development *Red: Project in FY2013 16 Circulating fluidized bed gasification technology
  18. 18. Coal thermal power generation (Site B) in a developing country Heat efficiency (%, HHV) 0 10 20 30 40 Years from start of operation Designed heat efficiency Designed heat efficiency Fall of heat efficiency Coal thermal power generation (Site A) in Japan [Importance of appropriate plant control] Ref.: FEPC [Change of average coal thermal power generation efficiency in different countries] Heat efficiency (%, LHV) Ref.: Energy balances of OECD/Non-OECD countries-2012 Coal thermal power generation efficiency in Japan is now in the world’s highest level and kept high for a long period of time after starting the power generation. This is due to Japan’s high efficiency technology (supercritical pressure, ultra supercritical pressure) and know-how of the operation and control Low carbon by technology transfer to overseas coal thermal power plants 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 日本 韓国 インドネシア 中国 豪州 インド ドイツ 米国 17 Japan Korea Indonesia China Australia India Germany US
  19. 19. For further improvement of coal thermal power generation efficiency, development of technologies such as Integrated coal Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC), Integrated coal Gasification Fuel Cell combined Cycle (IGFC),Advanced Ultra SuperCritical pressure thermal power generation (A-USC) taking advantage of Japan’s technologies is important. Power generation efficiency and even higher efficiency of coal thermal power generation in Japan <Efficiency improvement of coal thermal power generation> 18 Existing power generation technologies Future technology development Integrated coal gasification fuel cell combined system (IGFC) Advanced ultra supercritical pressure (A-USC) (steam temperature 700 Celsius degrees, steam pressure 24.1MPa) Integrated coal gasification combined system (IGCC) test facilities Ultra supercritical pressure (USC) (steam temperature 566 Celsius degree or higher, steam pressure 22.1MPa) Sub supercritical pressure (Sub-SC) (Steam pressure lower than 22.1MPa) Supercritical pressure (SC) (steam temperature 566 Celsius degree or lower, steam pressure 22.1MPa) Heatefficiency(%)(generatingend,HHV) Year
  20. 20. 864 810 695 476 375 200 400 600 800 1,000 石炭火力…USC IGCC IGFC 石油火力…LNG火力…LNG火力… ○CO2 generation per heat from different fuels → coal : oil : LNG = 5 : 4 : 3 ○CO2 generation per kWh → coal : LNG = 2 : 1 ○Since coal generates relatively larger amount of CO2 per heat or kWh than other fossil fuels, clean use of coal is required. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 石 炭 石 油 LNG (g-C/1000kcal) 石 炭 石 油 LNG 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 石 炭 石 油 LNG (g-C/1000kcal) 石 炭 石 油 LNG 5   :  4  :  3 Ref.: Japanese Government’s report based on “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change “ CO2 generation per heat Ref.: Estimate from development objectives of each research project at Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (2009) (g-CO2/kWh) CO2 generation per kWh from fuel Comparison of CO2 generation from fuels in power generation 19 Coal Oil LNG Coal Oil LNG Coal thermal (average) Oil thermal (average) LNG thermal (steam) LNG thermal (combined average)
  21. 21. Coal, etc. 36% Oil, etc. 40% Natural gas, etc. 18% Industrial process 4% Waste 2% (Ref.: Green house gas emission and absorption inventory) CO2 emission in FY2010 1.192 billion tons ○ 98% of the entire CO2 emission in Japan is occupied by the energy sector. 34% of direct emission is occupied by energy conversion sector and 35% of indirect emission by industrial sector. ○40% of emission is occupied by oil and 36% by coal. About 0.2 billion tons of CO2 is emitted from coal power plants. CO2 emission in Japan 34% 29% 19% 8% 5% 3%2% Energy conversion 7% Industry 35% Transportation 20% Business, others 18% Household 14% Industrial process 4% Waste 2% CO2 emission in FY2010 1.192 billion tons Outer: Indirect emission Inner: Direct emission Coal produces about 0.43 billion tons of CO2 and about 0.2 billion tons of CO2 is from coal power plants. CO2 emission from each sector in FY2010 CO2 emission from each fuel in FY2010 20
  22. 22. Integrated coal gasification fuel cell combined system experiment project (Osaki Cool Gen) Project details ○ Oxygen injection coal gasification technology (oxygen blown IGCC) which makes it efficient and easy to separate and collect CO2 is established. Experiments of triple-combined power generation technology by combining fuel cell of the hydrogen obtained by future oxygen injection gasification are conducted. (1) Technical characteristics ○ Gross thermal efficiency 55% (←current USC 41%) ○ Use of subbituminous coal, which can be easily gasified (use of low- grade coal) ○ Easy separation and collection of CO2 by oxygen injection (CO2 reduction) ○ Use of hydrogen by oxygen injection (fuel cell) (2) Organizer: Osaki Cool Gen (J-POWER, Chugoku Electric Power) (3) Project term: 2012-2021 (Total of 30 billion yen, total project cost of 90 billion yen) *Only 1st stage Combustible gas H2, CO etc. Air Air separati on unit Oxygen Gasification furnace Steam turbine Gas turbine H2 Burner Air compressor Generator Waste heat collection boiler Chimney CO H2 H2 CO H2 CO2 transport and storage Shift reactor CO2 collection and separation <1st stage> <2nd stage> <3rd stage> Integrated coal Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) CO2 collection technology Fuel cell H2 Project overview Existing waste water treatment facilities Coal gasification facilities Gas purification facilities New waste water treatment facilities CO2 separation and collection facilities Air separation facilities Combined power generation facilities Rendering Project site: Kamijimacho, Osaki, Toyoda, Hiroshima Future schedule FY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1st stage Oxygen blown IGCC experiments 2nd stage CO2separation and collection type GCCexperiments 3rd stage CO2 separation and collection type IGFC experiments Demonstration test Oxygen blown IGCC detailed design and construction Demonstration test detailed design and construction of CO2separation and collection Application technology assessment Image design CO2 transport and storage test Demonstration test CO2 collection integrated type of IGCC/IGFC: Detailed design and construction Technical survey, Image design 21
  23. 23. 圧縮機 貯槽設備 Coal gasification power plant CO2 level of exhaust gas from burning: 7-40% Off gas (Return to chimney) Liquefaction facilities Injection well ポンプ&気化器 Storage facilities <Underground storage><Transportation><Separation, collection> Transport by ships <Gasification, burning> CO2回収装置 CO2 CO2 Undergroundstorage ○Reduction of CO2 emission from coal thermal power plants is strongly demanded to respond to the global warming issues. ○Realization of a total system from power generation to CO2 storage is aimed at by combining efficiency improvement of coal thermal power plants and CCS. Total system of highly-efficient low-carbon coal thermal power generation ○ Storage potential of Japan? ○ Environmental impact, safety, monitoring? ○ Technology development of separation and collection Expected cost? Incentive? Who pays? 22
  24. 24. ○ Demonstration test is conducted to establish CO2 collection and storage (CCS) technologies that could drastically reduce green house gas emission to prevent the global warming. ○ The project tests a technology of underground storage of CO2 that is separated and collected from off gas at a refinery. About 0.1 million tons of CO2 will be stored underground (at about 1,000m depth) in a year. Also a test of basic technologies such as simulation technology of predicting long-term CO2 behavior and CO2 monitoring technology will be performed. ○ In February 2012, offshore Tomakomai was selected as test site according to geological survey results. At present, EPC (engineering, procurement, construction) is being conducted to develop CO2 separation and collection facilities, pressurized injection facilities, pressurized injection well, etc. ○ Company in charge of project: Japan CCS Co., Ltd ○ Project term: 2009-2020 Project details Project overview 帯水層の顕微鏡写真 Pore(空隙)部分に CO2を貯留 分離・回収 輸送 圧入 海上施設 より圧入 パイプライン 輸送 分離・回収 大規模排出源 パイプライン 輸送 地上施設 より圧入 不透水層 不透水層 CO2 CO2 陸域 地中帯水層 海域 地中帯水層 地上施設 より圧入 Tomakomai demonstration test project 23 Separation and collection Transport Injection Injection from facilities on ground Injection from facilities on ground Injection from sea-based facilities Separation andcollection Pipeline transport Pipeline transport Impermeable layer Impermeable layer Large-scale emission source Continental underground water-bearing layer Ocean underground water-bearing layer Microgram of water- bearing layer CO2 stored in pore (gap)
  25. 25. ○ Power generation cost with CCS - In the direct storage case (1), total power generation cost increases by 45% (approximately the same as in NETL cases1) which increases the cost by 40%). In the transport cases (2)-(6) the total cost increases by 80% (larger than in NETL cases which increases the cost by 45%). - Compared to the case without CO2 separation and collection, the power generation cost with CO2 separation and collection increases by 25% due to the reduction of the sending-end output. - Transport (incl. transport of liquefied and pressurized CO2) and storage occupy 10% of the power generation cost in the direct storage case and 30% in the transport cases. (The construction cost of CO2 tank for shipment, base for receiving shipped CO2, and dedicated ship is large.) ○ CO2 treatment cost breakdown - Cost of the transportation (incl. liquefaction and pressurization) and storage is relatively large, occupying 50-70% of the CO2 treatment cost. 1) Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants DOE/NETL-2010/1397 Taken from the result of “Zero Emission Coal-Fired Power Technology Development Project” in Zero Emission Coal-Fired Power Technology Development Project (Note) Condition of each case -Storage near power plant (no transport): Case (1) Direct Storage -Transport of liquefied CO2 by ship: Case (2) Land Base (that allows berthing of ship), Case (3) Ocean base fixed to the seafloor (for shallow ocean), Case (4) Ocean Floating Base (for deep ocean) -Transport through pipe line: Case (5) Liquid, Case (6) Gas Preliminary calculation of CCS cost 24 Transport, storage Power generation Powergenerationcost(yen/kWh) No CCS Case (1) Case (2) Case (3) Case (4) Case (5) Case (6) (No transport: 0km) Power generation: Capital charge Transport: O&M cost Power generation: O&M cost Storage: Capital charge Power generation: Fuel cost Storage: O&M cost Transport: Capital charge CO2treatmentcost(yen/tonCO2) Case (1) Case (2) Case (3) Case (4) Case (5) Case (6) (No transport: 0km) Separation and collection Energy penalty Liquefactionand pressurization Transport Storage
  26. 26. 25 0 10 20 30 40 50 Nuclear Coal-fired (new policy scenario) LNG-fired (new policy scenario) Wind power (onshore) Oil-fired Solar (residential) Geothermal [capacity utilization rate (%) /useful years ] [70%/40 yr] [80%/40 yr] [80%/40 yr] [20%/20 yr] [80%/40 yr] [50% or 10% /40 yr] (30% in 2004 estimates) [12%/20 yr] (35 yr in 2030 model) Gas cogeneration (before deduction of heat value) [70%/30 yr] 5.9 8.9- (2010=2030) 10.3 ↑ 9.5 10.9 ↑ 10.7 9.9- 17.3 ↓ 8.8- 17.3 9.2- 11.6 (2010= 2030) 11.5 ↑ 10.6 33.4- 38.3 ↓ 9.9- 20.0 5.7 6.2 Energy saving A/C: 7.9-23.4 Fridge: 1.5-13.4 Incandesce nt lamp  LED 0.1 <Legends> 2004 estimates 2010 model 2030 model Upper limit Lower limit Upper limit Lower limit 20.1 ↑ 19.7 (before deduction of heat value) Wind power (off-shore) [30%/20 yr] 9.4- 23.1 ↓ 8.6- 23.1 ○Even more attractive to power consumers when savings in electricity fees (¥20 for households, ¥14 for commercial/industrial customers) are considered. (4) Solar : ¥10-20 (5) Distributed power sources around ¥10-20 ○Incurs social costs, e.g. cost to prepare for the risk of accidents. ○¥8.9/kWh or more ○Increases with fuel costs and CO2 emission measures. ○As competitive as nuclear energy. ○Competitive even in at present if conditions are favorable. ○The following constraints apply to large-scale installations. ・Higher transmission costs for wind power due to concentration of plants in Hokkaido and Tohoku ・Constraints on geothermal heat, e.g. concentration in natural parks (1) Nuclear approx. ¥9 or more (2) Coal & LNG in the ¥10 range (3) Wind & geothermal ¥10 or less in some cases even now ○For large-scale installations, backup by auxiliary power supply or storage batteries is needed. [¥/kWh] 16.5 38.9 ↑ 36.0 (10%) 25.1 ↑ 22.1 (50%) Power Generation Cost Comparison Among Major Power Sources
  27. 27. * IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 Calculated by 79.97yen/dollar (exchange rate as of 2011) with new construction and replacement of plants included ○Expected introduction of coal thermal generation in the world (2012→2035) ○According to IEA, the coal thermal power generation has a world market of about 129 trillion yen including new construction and replacement of plants in 2012 through 2035 . ○In particular in Asia, it is about 79 trillion yen and the demand of coal thermal power generation is expected to expand in Asia. Europe 11.6 trillion yen (311GW→188GW) Russia 5.9 trillion yen (52GW→42GW) Middle East 0.1 trillion yen (0GW→1GW) Africa 9.1 trillion yen (41GW→79GW) East Europe 5.5 trillion yen (57GW→42GW) India 27.7 trillion yen (101GW→341GW) Asian Pacific (except China, India) 24.0 trillion yen (159GW→300GW) North America 16.6 trillion yen (360GW→272GW) South America 0.8 trillion yen (4GW→9GW) China 27.3 trillion yen (671GW→1,122GW) 26 Upper: Area, Middle: Investment from 2012 to 2035 Lower: Facility capacity from 2010 to 2035 World Total 129 trillion yen (1,649GW ⇒2,250GW)
  28. 28. Ref.: ・ IEA CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FUEL COMBUSTION Highlights(2011 Edition) ・Global warming countermeasure plan (J-POWER, Nov. 30, 2010) ・ RUPTL10-19, CEA "National Electricity Plan“ ・INSTITUTE of ENERGY "VIETNAM POWER sector power master plan" ○ Coal thermal power generation efficiency in Japan is now in the world’s highest level and kept high for a long period of time after starting the power generation. This is due to Japan’s high efficiency technology (supercritical pressure, ultra supercritical pressure) and know-how of the operation and control. ○ CO2 reduction is expected to be about 450 million tons (in trial calculation) if Japan’s latest coal thermal power generation efficiency is applied to coal thermal power plants planned in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam with which Japan is currently negotiating for a bilateral offset credit system. ○ Overseas expansion of Japan’s high-efficiency coal thermal power generation is promoted by the technology transfer of the high-efficiency coal thermal power generation technologies or by the system export of the technologies and the coal power generation operation control technology (O&M), while the technology competitiveness is maintained Efficient CO2 emission reduction in foreign countries (International development of coal thermal power generation)CO2emission(Mt-CO2) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 895 227 432 575 172 354 India Indonesia Vietnam Case 1: The case where the currently- used technologies are used again Case 2: The case where Japanese technologies are introduced Case 1 Case 2 Case 1 Case 2 Case 1 Case 2 320Mt-CO2 DOWN 55Mt-CO2 DOWN 78Mt-CO2 DOWN * Operating rate of a new coal thermal power plant is assumed to be 70%. [CO2 emission from coal thermal power generation (Comparison of introduction of existing technology and introduction of Japanese technologies) ] 115,800MW(-2022) 32,697MW(-2019) 71,311MW(-2030) Country Newly-built facility 450 million tons 27
  29. 29. (1) Development of gasification and slurrying technologies in accordance with the energy supply-demand balance in the coal countries (2) Methane, DME, etc created by the gasification of low-grade coal will be able to contribute to the clean energy supply to Japan in future (3) Development of multi-use of gasified products: Chemical materials such as fertilizer, in addition to fuel (1) Technological development of dehydration and drying for efficient transport and better combustion efficiency 低品位炭 発電用 一般炭 産炭国 CO2 回収・貯留 メタノール DME FT合成油など 既存の LNG製造設備 で液化 LNG ガス化 液体燃料 製造 SNG製造 大量消費国 既存のLNG輸送インフラに合流 CO2 回収・貯留 灰 灰 山元発電 国内需要を賄うとと もに、海外へも輸出 高効率乾燥 システムによる 発電効率向上 1. Development and introduction of low-grade coal gasification and slurrying technologies 2. Development and introduction of low-grade coal improvement technologies for effective use of unused resources Effective use of low-grade coal 改質炭 Ensuring of surplus export capability and relaxing of energy supply-demand balance in coal countries Relaxing of energy supply-demand balance In Asian countries Stable supply of coal to Japan Diversification of energy sources 28 Coal country General coal for power generation Low-grade coal Improved coal Mine mouth power generation Gasifica- tion Liquid fuel production SNG productionCO2 collection and storage Ash Methanol, DME, FT synthetic oil, etc. Power generation efficiency improvement with high-efficiency drying system Not only supply for domestic demand but also export to overseas Liquefaction at existing LNG production facilities CO2 collection and storage Ash Major consumer country Transported by existing LNG transport infrastructure
  30. 30. 4. Direction of coal policy 29
  31. 31. ○ Ensuring stable supply of coal resources for stabilization of energy supply-demand balance and strengthening and maintaining industrial competitiveness ○ Promotion and overseas development of clean coal technologies · Communications between the governments · Budget, investment, debt guarantee, and utilization of ODA, yen loan, JBIC, and NEXI [Policy tool] ◆ Promotion of coal use technologiesEnsuring stable supply of coal resources <Protection of Japan’s interests> <Stronger relationship with coal countries> <Relaxing of supply-demand balance (Use of low- grade coal)> <Higher efficiency, CCS> <Contribution to CO2 reduction by overseas development of clean coal technologies> <Use of low-grade coal> Coal will keep contributing to energy source diversification of Japan Coal policy Direction of coal policy in Japan 30

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