Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
How to take advantage
of new technologies
for economic development in ASEAN?
Fukunari Kimura
Chief Economist, Economic Res...
1. A view from the international division
of labor and international trade
• Capture a large value added with good dynamic...
Trade costs
Communication costs
Face-to-face costs
What starts moving?
International division of
labor
Dominant years
Pre-...
2. Utilize new technologies for
economic development
• Engage in new technologies. Do not be afraid of
possible backlash t...
Perception on new technologies
In developed economies
• Technologies often
perceived as “disruptive”;
why?
• Mature econom...
Two faces of digital revolution for AMSs
IT (e.g., AI, robotics, big data)
• Faster data processing, reduce # of tasks =>
...
Benchmar
k: free
flow of
data
(i) Policies
for
liberalizatio
n and
facilitation
(ii) Policies
to mitigate
market
failures
...
Implication for inclusive growth
• IT
• Middle-range human capital seems to be affected first,
rather than low or high hum...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

How to Take Advantage of New Technologies for Economic Development in ASEAN? - Prof Fukunari Kimura | ERIA

100 views

Published on

Keynote presentation on the launch of ASEAN Vision 2040, ERIA’s project in support of the Government of Thailand who is ASEAN Chair in 2019. The event was held in Jakarta on 30 August 2019 with the theme ‘Integration, Transformation and ASEAN Centrality’.

The presentation was made and delivered by Prof Fukunari Kimura, Chief Economist of the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia. Prof Kimura is also Professor at the Faculty of Economics, Keio University.

http://www.eria.org/research/researcher_profiles/fukunari-kimura.html

Published in: Economy & Finance
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

How to Take Advantage of New Technologies for Economic Development in ASEAN? - Prof Fukunari Kimura | ERIA

  1. 1. How to take advantage of new technologies for economic development in ASEAN? Fukunari Kimura Chief Economist, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) Professor, Faculty of Economics, Keio University 1
  2. 2. 1. A view from the international division of labor and international trade • Capture a large value added with good dynamic impacts in the global value chains. • Production networks in the manufacturing sector (or the second unbundling) • Still ample room for further widening and deepening the involvement in ASEAN. • Forthcoming cross-border services outsourcing (or the third unbundling) • May become one of the major channels for the international division of labor. 2
  3. 3. Trade costs Communication costs Face-to-face costs What starts moving? International division of labor Dominant years Pre- globalized world (0) High High High None Autarky - 1820 The 1st unbundling (1) Lower High High Goods Industry-wise (Production and consumption are fragmented) 1820-1990 The 2nd unbundling (2) Lower Lower High Ideas Task-wise (An industry is fragmented) 1990-2015 The 3rd unbundling (3) Lower Lower Lower People Person-wise (A task is fragmented) 2015- “Unbundlings” to overcome distance a la Baldwin (2016) Source: Kimura (2018). 3
  4. 4. 2. Utilize new technologies for economic development • Engage in new technologies. Do not be afraid of possible backlash too much. • For organizing our perception on new technologies, the concept of IT (information technology) and CT (communication technology) would be useful. • Should seek good combination of IT and CT for sustainable and inclusive growth. 4
  5. 5. Perception on new technologies In developed economies • Technologies often perceived as “disruptive”; why? • Mature economy, slow economic growth, old shrinking population, ... • Substitutability b/w machines and labor emphasized. • Industrial adjustments with friction; scraping and replacing jobs painful. • Must compete at the frontier of developing new technologies. In AMSs • Technologies should be embraced as engines of economic development. • Economies ready to be transformed, rapid economic growth, (mostly) young vigorous population, ... • Complementarity b/w machines and labor must be pursued. • Dynamic economies, new jobs created, people willing to switch to better jobs. • Can avoid redundant R&D; concentrate on “imitative innovation” and applications. 5
  6. 6. Two faces of digital revolution for AMSs IT (e.g., AI, robotics, big data) • Faster data processing, reduce # of tasks => generate “concentration forces,” however,… • Focus on applications • Need innovation hubs as a window to follow up new technologies. • Utilize complementarity of machines and human beings to deepen/upgrade roles in international production networks; recent study on robots and network trade • Policies • Introduction of IT such as robotics to be mildly promoted. • Human capital • Demand for programmers, computer engineers, obvious. • Shift from manual, routine jobs to cognitive, flexible, multi-task jobs. • Effects at the individual level, unpredictable. CT (e.g., internet, smartphones, 5G) • Overcome distance, encourage dom./cross- border division of labor => generate “dispersion forces” • Lower matching costs for B-to-C and C-to-C already make new businesses mushrooming. • Social media, transport, tourism, e-commerce, e-payments, fin-tech, ... • Domestic and cross-border • Policies • Digital connectivity to avoid digital divide • Can be achieved with private incentives and proper regulation/modest public expenditure. • Human capital • Platform providers • Programmers, computer engineers, entrepreneurs for start-ups • Platform users • Ordinary people with entrepreneurship • Regulatory framework for “almost free flow of data” • Principles • Back-up policies (so far fragmented) • Consumer protection, privacy, cyber- security • IPR protection, competition policy, taxation 6
  7. 7. Benchmar k: free flow of data (i) Policies for liberalizatio n and facilitation (ii) Policies to mitigate market failures (iii) Policies to reconcile values or social concerns (iv) Policies to accommodate data flows and data-related businesses (v) Industrial policy and strategic trade and investment policies Free flow of data as a benchmark and supporting policies (T20, TF8, Policy Brief #4) (i) Policies for further liberalization and facilitation Non-discrimination for digital content, customs duties on electronic transmissions, customs duties on parcels, Electronic authentication and signatures (ii) Policies to correct or mitigate market failures Competition policy, consumer protection, IPR protection (iii) Policies to reconcile values or social concerns with economic efficiency Data and privacy protection, cybersecurity, other general exceptions (iv) Policies to accommodate data flows and data-related businesses in the domestic policy regime Taxation, e-payments/fintech/other industrial regulations, AI, information disclosure of firms and statistics, due process for government access to privacy/industry data (v) Industrial policy and strategic trade and investment policies 7
  8. 8. Implication for inclusive growth • IT • Middle-range human capital seems to be affected first, rather than low or high human capital. • Need to make human capital complement to IT. • CT • Platform users can be anybody; room for the participation by MSMEs and individuals. • Although taxation for giant platformers in discussion, it seems to be a lot of room for inclusive growth. 8

×