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Future Trends for Wind Turbines
- 1. 1 Introduction and future trends for Wind Turbines STLE Canton Section’s Education Seminar March 14, 2018Douglas R. Lucas, P.E. Advanced Engineering Technologist
- 2. 2 What to Expect Timken products are found wherever parts move and turn … From roller coasters to race cars From airplanes to artificial hearts … and wind turbines, my specialty! The science of wind energy: History Pros and cons Wind market How wind works Wind turbine trends
- 3. 3 What creates wind? Wind is air in motion. Caused by sun heating certain areas of land. Air above land heats more quickly than air above water. Hot air rises – cold, dense air rushes in to take its place. The higher the altitude, the higher the wind speeds. Air falls over cool sea Air rises over warm land Wind blows toward land velocity altitude
- 4. 4 It’s more powerful than you think Wind shapes the earth. • Sediments picked up in the wind can erode and carve massive rocks. • Shapes deserts across the globe. Wind is a tremendous source of energy.
- 5. 5 Harvesting the wind is an old science 5000 BC – first sail boats created to harness the wind for transportation 200 BC – windmill created to pump water and grind grain 11th century – windmills spread throughout Europe 19th century – advanced farming across the U.S. 1888 – Cleveland inventor created the first automatically operating wind turbine 1930s – wind was eclipsed by coal and oil as energy sources
- 6. 6 The modern era realized more power 1970s – energy crisis rekindled interest in wind energy 1980s – NASA created the first modern wind turbine capable of generating significant amounts of electricity. The modern era of wind energy begins! NASA turbine Sandusky, Ohio
- 7. 7 … and power continues to increase Ø = Rotor Diameter Physical growth in Wind Turbine Generators 1980 to 2018 50 kW Ø 15m 100 kW Ø 20m 500 kW Ø 40m 600 kW Ø 50m 2,000 kW Ø 80m 5,000 kW Ø 124m 7,000 kW Ø 130m 10,000 kW Ø 150m 12,000 kW Ø 220m 1980 1985 1990 1995 20032000 20152008 2018 Source: BTM Consult ApS and Timken marketing analysis NOTE: 1 megawatt = 1,000 kilowatts = 1,000,000 watts = power for 400 homes
- 8. 8 Wind energy has its advantages Renewable – we’ll never run out! Zero cost of fuel Environmentally friendly Small physical footprint
- 9. 9 But it also has its challenges • Cost of installation and maintenance high • Not meeting design reliability • Spoils the view (NIMBY) • Concerns for flying wildlife • Noise of operation
- 10. 10 Three Key High-Level Trends Bigger – Blades – Towers – Power – Bearings Lower Cost of Energy (CoE) – Lower capital investment – Increased Efficiency – Reduced maintenance – Reduced downtime Increased reliability – Eliminate unexpected repairs – Repair uptower
- 11. 11 Wind energy still a small source of electricity Global Power Consumption by Energy Source, 2014 IEA Data Oil 31% Gas 21% Coal 29% Nuclear 5% Biomass 10% Hydro 3% Other Renewable s 1% Oil 30% Gas 22% Coal 26% Nuclear 6% Biomas s 10% Hydro 3% Other Renewabl es 3% Total = 13,864 Mtoe 2025 Total = 15,341 Mtoe • Globally Wind Energy is a small portion of the total consumption • It is the only energy source projected to grow at CAGR > 7% by 2030
- 12. 12 But it's growing in popularity Fastest growing segment of renewable energy sources New technologies advancing reliability and cost competitiveness Desire for lower energy cost and greater independence Government support, especially in Europe and Asia Rising cost of fossil fuels US First Off-Shore Farm • Block Island: 5 x GE Haliade 6MW Source: Twitter, Inc. (US), Deepwater Wind
- 13. 13 Global Installed Base: 204,000 Turbines (>1MW) Global Installed Base: By Region Global Installed Base Source: MAKE Consulting Installed Base • 90% Turbine installed base is in China, Europe, and US • Design influence is in Europe and China • Turbine installs stabilized at 20K-25K/yr. in 2008, and are expected to remain at that rate
- 14. 14 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) • Onshore wind energy cost aligned with coal and gas • Offshore wind has cost disadvantage to existing energy options (but is coming down) Source: MAKE Consulting, IEA
- 15. 15 Wind Energy – Turbine and Gearbox OEM Position Source: MAKE Consulting • New turbine installs (vs GW) shows stronger share for Chinese OEMs (2016 estimates) • Top 3 Gearbox OEMs account for 2/3 of new installs and strengthening share Current Turbine OEM Share – 22K Turbines Current Gearbox OEM Share – 16K Gearboxes
- 16. 16 Preliminary 2017 Rankings Current Turbine OEM Share – 22K Turbines
- 17. 17 So, how does it work?
- 18. 18 Wind energy becomes electricity Large machines called wind turbines convert wind into electrical energy Often grouped together in “farms” They stand: o 30 stories tall o 120-150 meters (400-500 feet) in diameter Blade diameter and wind velocity are key Price tag: $0.8 – 1.2 million per megawatt of capacity* *Windpower Engineering and Development Article from May 2, 2017
- 19. 19 Wind is a powerful source of electricity 3.0 megawatt wind turbine the power of a typical diesel locomotive=
- 20. 20 Typ. blade speed = 1/3 the speed of sound A wind turbine is both simple and complex Sweep area of blades Tower Rotor Diameter Hub Height Nacelle with Gearbox and Generator Underground Electrical Connections (front view) Foundation (side view) P = 0.5 Cp v3 AS P – Power – Air Density Cp – Power Coefficient v – Wind speed As – Swept Area
- 21. 21 Blades are now nearly 90 meters (295 feet) … that’s nearly as tall as the Stature of Liberty One gearbox weighs more than 60 tons… that’s more than 40 Volkswagen Beetles! The bigger the turbine, the more energy
- 22. 22 Wind hits the blades, causing them to spin. The blades are connected to a shaft that turns gears. These fast rotations turn a generator and produce an electric current. The current is converted into usable power and stored in grid for people to use. So, how does it work?
- 23. 23 Regardless of country, location is critical Smooth, rounded hills Open plains Shorelines Mountain gaps
- 24. 24 Fastest growing renewable energy form – but still less than 3% of total Top five states: • Texas (21,450 MW) • Iowa (6,974 MW) • Oklahoma (6,645 MW) • California (5,561 MW) • Kansas (5,110 MW) Largest farm in the US • Alta Wind Energy Center (Mojave Wind Farm) in Tehachapi, CA • 1,547 MW 5 of the world’s top 10 largest wind farms are in Texas Wind is a growing U.S. energy source Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Third Quarter 2017 Market Report
- 25. 25 Wind Power by State Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Third Quarter 2017 Market Report
- 26. 26 Ohio has some windy spots Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Third Quarter 2017 Market Report Northwest Ohio and areas along Lake Erie lead the way for local wind energy. Ohio has 336 turbines installed 545 MW Power generated 1. Bowling Green – 4 turbines x 1.8 megawatts 2. Timber Road II, Van Wert – 55 turbines x 1.8 megawatts 3. Blue Creek, Van Wert – 175 turbines x 2 megawatts 4. Hog Creek, Harding – 30 turbines x 2.2 megawatts
- 27. 27 Timken’s Wind Energy Business
- 28. 28 Large industrial wind turbines endure harsh operating environments • Sudden changes in wind direction • Debris Timken products designed to improve the reliability and cost competitiveness of wind turbines Work with customers to develop upgraded solutions Wind turbines are a demanding application A “small” Timken wind bearing cage. 6’ diameter.
- 29. 29 Apply clean, alloy steels Global bearings supply • Up to 12 feet (nearly 4 meters) in diameter • TRB, CRB, and SRB Couplings, torque control Timken wind energy offering Repair services – uptower and generator Wind technology center Application testing
- 30. 30 Timken Invested over $200M in its Wind Energy Supply Chain Engineering Centers Manufacturing Locations Tyger River, SC USA Asheboro, NC USA Ploiesti, Romania Wuxi, China Xiangtan, China Chennai, IndiaUnited States Canton, Ohio France Colmar India Bangalore China Shanghai Wind Energy Footprint
- 31. 31 Industry Trends - Blades Longer blade lengths • 37m to 88m long in last 20 years Material • Glass fiber moving to carbon fiber Stall regulated Pitch regulated • Simultaneous • Individual 2-row ball pitch bearings Drone inspections Source: Windpower monthly “How to service and maintain a wind turbine blade”, July 2012
- 32. 32 Industry Trends – Main Bearings Many turbines under 3MW use Spherical Roller Bearings (SRB) • 1 Pillowblock (3 Point Mount) • 2 Pillowblock (4 Point Mount) Other designs include: • Double Row Taper (TDI) + Cylindrical Roller Bearing (CRB) • 2 Single TRB • Double Row Taper (TDO) Larger turbines using more TRB main bearings Nearly all main bearings are lubricated with grease • Manually re-lubricated • Automatic re-lubricators DLC coated rollers – prevent micropitting TDI and dis-similar series SRB replacing SRB Single SRB Two TS Ultrawind TDI and CRB
- 33. 33 Industry Trends – Gearboxes Pre-2005 • SRB, CRB, and BB • 1 Planetary + 2 parallel shaft stages Post AGMA 6006 • Predominately TRB and CRB • More 2, 3 planetary stages Planet carrier bearings • Moving away from full-complement CRB • More 2 TRB solutions
- 34. 34 Industry Trends – Gearboxes Planet bearings • Moving to more integrated planet bearings • TRB and CRB • More 4- row CRB bearings • Testing journal bearings Parallel shaft • SRB and BB not typically used • Most designs are TRB (fixed) and CRB (floating) General • WEC (White Etch Cracks) • Reduced noise emissions • Increased reliability • In-line debris condition monitoring
- 35. 35 Industry Trends – Generators Typical Types • Synchronous • Asynchronous • Double-fed Induction generator (DFIG) Permanent magnets used in many generators Observations • Electrical arcing damage (fluting) o Dielectric coatings o Hybrid (ceramic roller) bearings • Inadequate lubrication • Grounding o Ground brushes: carbon to metal fiber
- 36. 36 Onshore • Lattice • Steel • Concrete-Steel • Full concrete Source: Windpower engineering, Foundations that float, March 2017 Industry Trends – Tower / Foundations Offshore • Monopile • Tripod • Floating
- 37. 37 The air up there Provided a glimpse of the history of wind turbines Showed wind energy is a powerful and growing force Shared examples of how wind is getting bigger, more reliable, and lower cost.
- 38. 38
Editor's Notes
- Good morning ladies and gentlemen! I would like to thank the Canton Section of STLE for the opportunity to talk with you this morning. As you already heard, my name is Doug Lucas and I am one of the wind energy application engineering team members at Timken. Timken is a well known company here in Canton and is known for application of bearings in many products, such as planes, trains, and automobiles, but also....my specialty...wind turbines. Tonight I get to talk to you about one of my passions. Not only do I work for a great company, but I get to work in a market segment that is interesting, challenging, and fun! Not only do I get involved with the design of the bearings in the applications, but I also have had the opportunity to climb into the applications that I work on! Tonight I will keep this on a high level overview about wind energy. I had to script the presentation tonight, otherwise I would get carried away and you would be here for more than just 1/2 hour! (click) I will touch on the history of wind energy and talk about some of the pros and cons of wind. I will then discuss more of how it all works, provide some fun facts and discuss a few slides on what Timken is doing in wind energy. And lastly I will share some of the trends that we are seeing in the wind energy market.
- Wind is a natural occurrence that has great power. Wind is air in motion. Some of you might remember from elementary science class that wind occurs because of the uneven heating of the earth. The air above land heats quicker than air above water. As the hot air over the land raises, the cold, dense air rushes in to take its place. This is why you can enjoy a refreshing sea breeze while you are on the beach on a sunny day. Wind speeds will increase with higher elevation, which is why you will see later that wind turbines are very tall!" (click)
- Just how powerful is the wind? There have been some amazing recorded wind speeds. In 1999, a tornado was clocked at a record 318 miles per hour. On April 10, 1996, a non-tornadic wind was recorded at an astounding 408 kilometers per hour or approximately 254 miles per hour. Even your average wind has amazing power. Look at the image here to the right: over time, the winds pick up sediments which can erode or carve even the most massive rocks Wind is also responsible for the movement and structure of sand dunes and deserts across the globe. (click)
- Using wind for energy may be an emerging industry today, and is in keeping with the “green” movement; however, it is not a new idea at all. In fact, as far back as 5000 B.C., people were using wind energy for transportation – using it to sail boats. In 200 B.C., people in China channeled wind to help fashion the first windmill used to pump water. At this same time, people in Persia and the Middle East were using wind-catching equipment to grind grain Eventually, the idea of wind energy spread and was used throughout the world in the 11th century for food production and even for draining lakes and marshes in Europe. By the 19th century, in America, the first windmills were used to pump water for farms and ranges and later to generate electricity for grain mills. More recently, in the early last century, people started using resources like coal and oil and running power lines to transport the energy. (click)
- The modern era of wind energy developed more in the 1970's as a result of high energy costs and concerns about oil reserves depleting. During the 1980's NASA was way ahead of their time and developed a 3 megawatt prototype turbine, something that has not been produced in large volumes until this last decade. The wind industry developed further in Europe during the 1990's and has really started to develop in the US and globally during the 2000's into a utility scale market. (click)
- Over the last 30+ years, the overall size of wind turbines has increased. And not only have they gotten bigger, they’ve been able to produce more electricity. Take a look at how big they have gotten this year in 2018. Just last month GE announced their new 12MW Haliade-X turbine. It will have a rotor diameter of ø220m and will be more than 260m tall. The energy from one of these 12MW turbines can generate about 35 million kW-hrs per year, assuming a 33% power factor, which can be achieved, depending on turbine location. It would take a small farm of 20 of these 12MW turbines to generate the same amount of power of the Cleveland Lake Shore Power Plant. (click)
- There are many advantages of wind energy. First of all, it’s renewable. We are all looking for sources of renewable energy – one that naturally replenishes, so it will never run out! Wind energy is an environmentally friendly source of power because it doesn’t cause pollution, gives off few emissions and is a good alternative to fossil fuels. Remember when gasoline was $4-$5 per gallon? At those prices, who wouldn’t like to find as many alternative fuels as possible? As for the “footprint” left by harnessing wind – it is a very small one. It is not only a small carbon footprint, but also a small physical foot print. In fact, farmers can lease their land and may make in the range of $5000/year per turbine, while still being able to farm around them. So, overall, wind energy is a great way to go and good for our environment. (click)
- As with anything, there are some drawbacks to wind energy. It’s not the most reliable and cost competitive form of energy. The wind isn’t always blowing … and when it is, the forces put high demands on the equipment. And that’s something we work with customers on. There is also the "Not in my backyard" syndrome, which the museum knows all about. As much as we tout the benefits of wind energy, many people don't want a large, many-miles-spanning group of giant wind turbines in our view. Others are concerned that the turning blades of a wind turbine will kill or maim birds and bats which fly within their range. Certainly there is some validity to these wildlife impact issues, particularly for eagles and bats. Some homeowners complain that the large wind turbines block sunlight and cast large shadows, and that the noise created by them is a nuisance. And of course, there is the most obvious problem – the wind isn’t always blowing! (click)
- There are three key high level trends which I would like you to understand. One is that turbines are getting bigger, and bigger, and bigger. Everything is getting larger from the blades, to the towers, the power, and the bearings, of course. Everyone is working to make wind energy as viable of an energy as possible, which has resulted in a continually lower cost of energy to be competitive with coal, natural gas, and other low cost energies. These costs have been reduced through lower turbine costs (i.e. the capital investments), increased efficiency, reduced downtime and reduce maintenance. As a result of better technologies, improvements in standards, and increased understanding of wind turbines, the reliability has been increasing over the last 30 years and I expect it will continue as we develop designs which eliminate unexpected repairs or allow for repairs uptower, without the need for an expense land-based crane. (click)
- According to one source, as of 2014, only 1% of global power consumed was from renewable resources, which included wind energy. This is such as small portion of the total global electricity usage, but there is plenty of room to grow. In fact, wind energy is the only energy source predicted to have a CAGR >7% by 2030. In fact, by 2025 the renewable resources is expected to be 3% of the global power demand, thanks to wind energy. (click)
- Despite some of the common complaints about wind energy, it is growing in popularity, and one can see why. As we all realize the urgency of finding alternative sources of energy, wind is the fastest growing segment of all possible renewable energy sources. New technologies are making it more affordable than ever to produce electricity from wind, and Timken is helping to make this technology happen … but we will talk about that later in the presentation. Our dependence on fossil fuels is expensive, creates dependence on other world powers and creates more emissions than we would like to have released into our atmosphere. Worldwide governments embrace wind energy by offering feed-in tariffs, tax incentives and market share quotas. While the U.S. government does not have a Renewable Energy Policy, more than half of the states have one. It also has the advantage of being much less riskier than nuclear power, as those in Japan have recently discovered. (click)
- So how do we do it? (click)
- How do we turn wind energy into our energy? Large windmills, called wind turbines, covert the wind energy into electrical energy and are developed into larger farms. Just as natural gas turbines generate electricity, wind turbines (not windmills) generate electricity. These turbines typically stand 30 stories tall and have three blades which sweep an area up to 400-500 feet in diameter. The amount of energy created depends upon the square of the blade diameter and the cubic of the wind velocity. That is why they are built with large blades and as tall as possible to capture the maximum amount of energy as possible. In fact, the energy output doesn't even depend on the number of blades! Of course the cost of wind turbines can vary based on many factors, but on larger megawatt size turbines, installed costs can be between 0.8 and 1.2 million dollars per megawatt capacity. So, how much is a megawatt? (click)
- A megawatt is a million watts and a one megawatt turbine can generate enough power for about 400 homes (that is about 17,000 60 watt light bulbs). From another perspective, a 3MW turbine can generate the power equal to a typical diesel locomotive. I don't know about you, but these locomotives must be powerful because every time I wait for a train at a crossing, it seems like these things go on forever! (click)
- Now, let's take a look at how a typical wind turbine is designed (click) The rotor diameter is the overall area which the blades rotate. (click) The nacelle is the main structure at the top of the tower which houses the gearbox, generator, and electrical equipment. (click) The tower supports the entire structure (click) and is supported by a concrete foundation. (click) As the blades rotate, the generator inside the nacelle will create electricity, which will be carried down the tower to an underground electrical connection to a substation and the power grid. (click)
- Here are some examples of the size of the pieces and parts of a wind turbine! Turbine blades can be 90 meters long. That’s nearly as tall as the Statue of Liberty! A gearbox can weigh up to more than 60 tons. That’s more than 40 Volkswagen Beetles. (click)
- So, how does it work? The wind will hit the blades, which are an airfoil, like those used on airplane wings. This will cause the blades to rotate, generating power. (click) This power is then transferred through the main shaft and main shaft bearings to a gearbox. (click) The gearbox will increase the rotational speed of the main shaft from 15 RPM to a speed that the generator will operate, typically this is 1800 RPM. In some cases there are turbines without gearboxes. In these direct drive turbines, the generator will operate at the same rotational speed of the blades and not at 1800 RPM. (click) The generator, which operates like a motor, but in reverse, will produce an electrical current. This current is then converted into useable power, sent along power transmission lines and put on the electrical grid for people to use. (click)
- Just as the size of the wind turbine is important, so is where they’re built! They have to be placed in areas where they can get the most “bang for their buck,” which are areas where wind is always moving. After all the business men funding these projects want to know what their return on investment is! Well, some of the best places to install turbines are : On top of smooth, rounded hills, Wide open spaces like plains, coasts and shorelines Some turbines are even placed offshore in bodies of water. Another great place is in mountain gaps. The peaks in mountains create channels where wind quickly races through. This creates a sort of funnel, and placing wind turbines within these areas collects a great deal of energy. Since wind speeds and patterns are so different across the United States, it’s important that wind turbines are placed in geographies that are a good “fit” for the type of wind activities they need to operate. Wind patterns also vary by seasons, temperatures and climates, and one needs to pay attention to this when trying to decide where to build. (click)
- This map of the US shows wind potential, with Class 6 in blue having the greatest amount of wind. You can see that the western part of the US around the Rockies have some of the highest winds and the north central and north east US have good winds as well. These are the areas you are most likely to find wind farms. And it should be no surprise that (click) Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma, California and Kansas are states that have the most installed wind power. California was the leader from the 1970's until 2007, but has been surpassed by Texas and Iowa in recent years. Texas did have the largest single wind farm in the US at one time, but the largest is now in Tehachapi, California and is 1547MW! (click) However, Texas wind farms are still big! They have 5 of the top 10 world’s largest wind farms! (click)
- Here is a another look at the installed wind power in the US. As you can see Texas dominates installed wind power. You can see that the midwest and plain states have a significant presence in wind because of the consistent wind and lack of obstructions which interrupt the wind. The west and east coasts have some wind power also, but there is very little in the South East part of the US. This is in-line with the wind map from the previous slide.
- And, even here in Ohio, you can see that the northwest of Ohio and Lake Erie have the greatest wind potential. Ohio’s first wind farm was actually four Vestas 1.8MW turbines installed in Bowling Green at their land fill. There are three other larger wind farms installed in Ohio. Two are in Van Wert, Ohio. One is a 99MW farm made up of 55 Vestas turbines and the other is a 350MW farm using 175 Gamesa turbines. The third is a 66MW farm in Harding, Ohio and is composed of 30 Vestas V110 2.2MW turbines. (click)
- Now let me highlight a few things about Timken’s work in wind energy. (click)
- These large wind turbines are required to endure harsh environments, such as rapid wind direction and speed changes as well as extreme temperatures from arctic to desert regions. They must also survive in dirty environments where sand, salt, and water threaten the damage the operation of the turbines. Timken develops products and technologies which help improve the reliability and cost competitiveness of these wind turbines. This 6-foot diameter cage shown here just happens to be one of the small cages we use in these wind turbine bearings. Some of you may recognize this as Leonardo DiVinci's Vitruvian Man. (click)
- We apply clean, high alloy steels from global supply chains and even use steel from TimkenSteel here in Canton. We manufacture large tapered roller and cylindrical roller bearings, up to 12 feet in diameter, from the US, Romania, and China. Through recent acquisitions we are also supplying coupling, torque control devices, and repair services on generators and uptower services. In 2012 Timken, in cooperation with Stark State College of Technology, built a multi-million dollar Wind Energy Development and Research Center, which is located on the college’s property, near the Akron Canton Airport. This center complements our own application testing at our World Headquarters in North Canton. (click)
- When we say we supply customers “all over the world,” we really mean it. Our operations include: 12 global technology centers, where engineers work to create innovations and technical solutions that change the way people work and live. 61 manufacturing plants that produce quality products. 76 sales offices that serve customers in different regions of the world. 15 distribution centers that warehouse and ship orders to customers. 9 strategic joint ventures in 5 countries. *Speaker’s Note: Joint Ventures are: Advanced Green Components, LLC – Winchester, Ky., U.S.A. Bardella Timken International Services – São Paulo, Brazil CoLinx, LLC – Greenville, S.C., U.S.A. (PTplace.com) Endorsia.com International AB – Gothenberg, Sweden Friction Management Services, LLC – Medina, Ohio, U.S.A. Industria Cuscinetti S.p.A (ICSA) – Turin, Italy International Components Supply Limitada - São Paulo, Brazil SETCO Service Co. – Norcross, Ga., U.S.A. Xiangtan Electric Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (XEMC) – China
- I hope that you have learned a little from me this morning about wind energy and the market trends. Of course this is only a short introduction into wind energy and is not comprehensive. But I have tried to proved a glimpse of the history of wind turbines. Wind energy is a growing, powerful force and Timken is here to work with turbine manufactures to improve reliability and the return on investment of large wind turbines. I have also provided samples of how wind energy is getting bigger, more reliable, and lower cost. Although wind energy may never supply 100% of all energy needs, from the small residential units to the largest wind farms, harnessing the power of the wind holds great opportunity. (click)
- And I thank you for this opportunity to speak to you tonight. If you have any questions, I will try to answer them at this time.