Presentation about Arab Spring in 2011

1. Arab Spring
Lt. Col. JÁNOS BESENYŐ (PhD)

2. Thinkabout it…
 What comes to mind when you think about the
Arab Spring?
 Is it revolution? What is a revolution?
 Why now? Why this region?
 Is it over and/or was it successful?
 What was/is the significance?
 Effect on Europe? USA?

4. History
 Unexpected social and national movement which started in 2010-2011.
 Named “Arabic Spring” to make a reference to the people spring from
1848, 1968, and 1989
 Tunis: The self-immolation of a street vendor Mohammed Bouazizi (26) in
the town of Sidi Bouzid - protest - „Jasmin Revolution” - President Ben Ali
ousted, and government overthrown.
 Egypt: Khaled Said beaten dead by police - protest - President Hosni
Mubarak ousted, and government overthrown.
 Libya: civil war, UN, NATO, EU, USA role - intervention - Kadhafi
overthrown
 Syria, Yemen, and Bahrain: Civil uprisings against the governments,
despite government changes.
 Morocco, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman: Major protests implementing
government changes in response to protests.
 Algeria, Iran, Mauritania,Western Sahara etc.: protests without changes

5. Characteristics
 Arab, not Sectarian (in general)
 Lower classes, Students, Laborers, Military
 Populist
 Role of the Social Media (Twitter, Facebook,
YouTube, etc.)
 Civil Resistance (strikes, protests, and
demonstrations)
 U.S. supported authoritarian regimes
 After a short period western countries support the
Arab Spring

6. Causes
 Demographic structural factors (demographic boom,
desertification, lack of drinking water)
 Current economic crisis, inflation, living standards
decrease (middle class), unemployment, extreme poverty
 concentration of wealth in the hands of autocrats, tribalism
 A young, educated (literacy rates, availability of higher
education), and idol populace
 Lack of perspective for youngsters
 Democratic deficit: dictatorship & authoritarian regimes
 Human rights violations
 Government corruption, nepotism
 Expression of liberty

8. contestation
 Interests of external actors
 Non violence
 No leadership
 Use of facebook, internet
 Domino effect.
 Rebuild geopolitics : Security, economy, oil…

9. Impact of the Arab Spring
 Egypt got closer to Iran, but other sunni
countries afraid from shiite „empire”
 Islamist freedom – salafists, etc. – stronger
position
 Sharia law
 Christian winter
 Security challenges to westerner countries
 Migration
 Most of the earlier problem are still exist

10. Questions ?
 A new mediterrean Union ?
 A democracy from “inside” ?
 Risk of fundamentalism ?
 The decline of the big power ? US, EU ?
 The raise of new mediators ? Turkey ?

11. What is coming?

12. Biography
 János Besenyő, Viktor Marsai: The first anniversary of the „Arab
Spring” – What kind of change have taken place since then-
Tradecraft Review, Periodical of the Military National Security
Service, 2012, 2. Special Issue, pp. 5-16,
http://real.mtak.hu/83773/7/2012_2_spec-5-16.pdf
 János Besenyő, Roland Gömöri: Arab Spring, Christian Fall? –
The situation of Christian minorities in the Middle East after the
Arab Spring – International Institute for Counter-Terrorism,
Herzliya, 2013. június,
http://www.ict.org.il/Article/998/Arab_Spring_Christian_Fall

13. QUESTION?
THANKSFORYOURATTENTION!