The Arab Spring

The Arab Spring
Beth Hill-Skinner
Out of the Box International™
Fall 2011

Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the
Box International

Note to reader-Disclaimer
• The slides within this presentation are not intended to be
“stand alone” material.
• They are supplemental to the lecture/course that was
given at the Annenberg Center in Fall 2011.
• Some of the content was removed to avert misuse or
misunderstanding in that it could be taken out of context.
• However, the content provided reflects the overall intent
of the course, to provide the participants with a greater
understanding of the unfolding events nominally referred
to as the “Arab Spring”. Please contact me should you
have further questions or if you would like to schedule a
presentation on this topic for your group.
I hope that you find this material helpful, Beth Hill-Skinner
Box International

Arab Spring
• Islam is the world’s fastest growing religion at
this time.
• It is easily approaching the number of Christian
adherents and holds the number two position in
terms of religious identification.
• 1.5 billion Muslims in the world today.
• 57 countries
• Represent a multiplicity of cultures.
MAP
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Arab Spring
• The Arab Spring is not intrinsically a Muslim
movement as much as a populist movement
within the Arab States.
• A wave of populist protests and demonstrations.
• The term itself has currency in the media of
other countries. But in those countries where
the movement is taking place, the word that is
used is “revolution” or “thawra” in Arabic.
• The plural of revolutions being “thawrat”.
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Arab Spring
• Generally speaking, the use of ‘spring’ is attributed to
the revolutionary upheavals in Europe in 1848.
• The period was captured through the phrase
“springtime of nations”.
• The outcome took time. For example, in France free
elections led to Napoleon’s rise for nearly two decades,
a disastrous war and consequential bloody massacres.
• France underwent the organic process toward
democracy with missteps and deadly repercussions.
• France did become a functioning democratic republic
but it took almost a quarter-century.
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Arab Spring
• The Prague Spring of 1968 took thirty-two years to
materials in a democratic state.
• In Lebanon, the Beirut Spring in the early part of
this century (on-going in many respects) against
Syrian control resulted in the 2005 assassination of
Rafiq Hariri. By whom remains in contention.
Nurturing The Beirut Spring, By Jim Hoagland,Thursday, March
10, 2005; Page A21
“But the key judgment made by the Bush administration in the
spring of 2002 -- that the political status quo could not and
should not be maintained in the Middle East -- is being
proved prescient and worth pursuing through this Beirut
Spring.”
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Arab Spring
• Today Syria is largely back in control.
• The U.S. has not supported the movement in
Lebanon in part because of its stance toward
Israel.
• But also because of the tensions between the
U.S. and Syria (Iran). To tackle such a
dysfunctional international relational is
undesirable at this time. (More on Syria in
coming weeks)
• The “Axis of evil” on 1/29/2002 speech hardened
the positions and set back diplomatic efforts.
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Arab Spring
• Words like uprising “intifada”, awakening “sahwa”,
and even renaissance “nahda” are also used.
• The word “spring” most closely mirrors that of an
awakening.
• To be sure, those in power consider it to be a
revolt that must be put down.

Is it a revolution or an awakening?

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Arab Spring
• Terms like revolution, awaking, uprising, and
overthrow of regimes are similar. But are also
distinctive in their political use.
• Color revolutions are typically associated with
civil (at times non-violent) resistance.
• Words like civil unrest accompany these
movements and they are known worldwide.
• The protest is against corrupt governments with
a called for democratic reforms.
• These movements are not always successful.
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Arab Spring
• Green Revolution-Iran (2009)
• Yellow Revolution-Phillipines (1986)
• Orange Revolution-Ukraine (2004)
• Blue Revolution-Kuwait (2005)
Derivations include:
• Bulldozer Revolution-Serbia (2000) [Yugoslavia]
• Cedar Revolution-Lebanon (2005)
• Rose Revolution-Georgia (2003)
• Tulip Revolution-Kyrgyzstan (2005)
• Jasmine Revolution-Tunisia (2011)
• Lotus Revolution-Egypt (2011)
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Arab Spring
• Clearly the Arab Spring is a populist movement,
a demand, for self-determination, economic
reform, and more representative governance.
• This era in the Arab world is also the shedding of
the vestiges of colonialism, the pawn game of
the Cold War and the global imbalance of their
states on the world stage.
• The people are demanding their rights in ways
that resemble the democratic aspirations of
those who came to the United States.
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Arab Spring
• The popular uprisings have signaled a definite
shift in geo-political power.
• This shift is altering the balance of power
throughout the world which is a source of
diplomatic and economic tensions.
• Turkey, Israel, and Iran are the regional non-Arab
countries most affected by the Arab Spring.
Your thoughts on the role of Turkey, Israel,
and Iran?
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Arab Spring
• The recent uprisings that began with the self-
immolation of a Tunisian fruit seller captured on
a camera cell phone.
• His story is one of struggle and shouted, “How
do you expect me to make a living” as he
doused himself with gasoline and set himself
aflame with one match.
• Mohamed Bouazizi unknowingly spoke for
thousands of Tunisians who were ready to
protest the unjust conditions in Tunisia.
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Arab Spring
• The conditions for these movements are fueled
through a before unknown method of
communication and momentum: FACEBOOK,
TWITTER, and the INTERNET.
• Social media has become a key instrument in the
Arab Spring.
• Social unrest has found social media.

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Arab Spring
• As instrumental as social media is, the willingness of
the people to protest in large numbers, or in the
case of Libya fight in a largely civilian army have
been the deciding factors.
• Another significant change in the Arab self-
determination game has been the evolution of Al-
Jazeera. The role of mainstream media has also
been significant. (Egypt and western coverage)
• Coverage of the self-immolation and the resulting
protests galvanized the youth who were able to
inspire and organize through these modern
methods.
• More on the role of the youth next week.
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Arab Spring
• Many factors have led up to the current period that
has been called the “Arab Spring”.
• Some will assert that the Iraq War (3/2003 -?) and
the quasi-democratic government is responsible.
• Some have stated that President Obama’s speech in
Cairo 6/04/09 is a key pre-condition.
• Others look at the youth bulge and the economic
conditions in the Arab States.
• The internet as a channel for education/perspective
has also been cited.
• And the role of social media cannot be overlooked.
(BA and M tried to shut it down)
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Arab Spring

Arab Spring
Arab Awakening
Arab Winter
Arab Uprisings
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Arab Spring
• The governments in each of these countries
differs.
• For each country, there is a complex set of
conditions that defies a singular category for the
protests.
• What can be known is:
This part of the world is emerging from
external pressures that have thwarted
progress toward more democratic rule.
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Arab Spring-why now?
• To date, three regimes have been toppled.
Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya.

• Yet…Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Sudan,
Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Kuwait, Bahrain,
Algeria, Morocco, Western Sahara,
Mauritania, and the Israeli border have all
been sites of uprising and protests.
• Syria remains an unfolding story. More on
this in coming weeks.
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Those who are in the streets say,

“This is not a political revolution, this is not a
religious revolution. This is a people’s
revolution. This is about Freedom.”
Muhbarak’s apparatus was most frightened by the
chant in Tahrir Square, “The people demand the
regime to step down.”

As people who are predominantly Muslim, their
human rights were the driving force.
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• Democracy in its truest form is organic.
• Democracy does not need capitalism, but instead is
the raw expression of human aspiration for dignity.
• Such dignity is not outside the form of Islam.
• Islam has held to the respect for human dignity at
points in history.

• The Islamist perversion of the religion is a reaction
to the corrupt governments and backward social
mobility throughout the Arab world.
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• Democracy is not incompatible with Islam or the
Arab culture.
• However, democracy does not have the
requirement to be present itself solely in the
“America” way.
• The United States is a unique story that is
unrealistic to export wholesale.
• The Arab peoples have been caught in a
conundrum for decades. At this time, there is a
window to push forward in the direction of
democracy.
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Arab Spring-cultural dissonance
• The polarization between the “Arab street” and western
interpretation of Arab revolution has been evidenced in
reporting.
• This is reflective of cultural dissonance between cultures.
This is a predictable condition and exists as a global
phenomenon. ie: U.S. & China or U.S. and Russia
• Example- In the tense weeks between the September II
attacks and the first US bombing raids over Afghanistan,
and continuing until the fall of the Taliban, commentators
raised serious concerns about what the Wall Street
Journal called the

"irrational Arab street.”
Asef Bayat MIDDLE EAST REPORT SPRING 03 P.10
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Arab Spring-cultural dissonance
The "Arab street," and by extension, the "Muslim street,"
have become code words that immediately invoke a
reified and essentially" abnormal" mind in the West…

"Muslim actions" are described almost exclusively in terms
of "mobs, riots, revolts," adding to the logical conclusion
that "Western standards for measuring public opinion
simply don't apply" in the Arab world. At any time,
American readers are reminded, protesting Arab masses
may shed their unassuming appearance and "suddenly
turn into a mob, powerful enough to sweep a way
governments"-notably the "moderate Arab governments
who remain loyal allies of the US."

Asef Bayat MIDDLE EAST REPORT SPRING 03 P.10
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• Socio-economic
• Socio-political
• Socio-identity

• Authoritarian control
• Economic suppression
• Totalitarian impediments

• Not about the United States, but nationalist pride.
But would U.S. throw support the direction of the
people?
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Arab Spring
• The “Arab spring” governments, heretofore,
have relied on state television which can be
controlled.
• When the states cut off the signal to Al Jazeera,
the slack was picked up through mobile phones,
and social media sites and all VOI protocol.
• Social media, is used by the youth more so than
by the older population.

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Arab Spring
• Al Jazeera, as an Arab television station has earned
enormous credibility with the people.
• The coverage on the part of Al Jazeera has signaled
a complete evolution in the sociological use of
media as a means of “democracy”.
• Democracy in terms of information,
communication, and speech.
• Al Jazeera oftentimes re-purposed what they found
on Social Media and spread it to a wider audience.
• Arab governments have a conflicted view on Al
Jazeera.
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Arab Spring
• Once the environment changed in Tunis or Cairo,
through the media means, the spirit of revolution
spread.
• People to people communication filled in the gaps
for the poor who lacked television or internet or
cellular phones.
• The revolutionary spirit ignited in the hearts and
minds of the people, which overwhelmed the
regimes of Tunisia and Egypt.
• Libya was also the site of the spreading demand for
reform and rejection of totalitarian governance.
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Arab Spring
• What is different about these revolutions is that
they are ignited by a broad base of support rather
than through the figure of a charismatic leader.
• The Arab world is experiencing a YOUTH BULGE!
• Social media allowed for non-discriminatory
expression. It was an equal forum for revolt in each
of the countries of the Arab Spring.
• To give expression to feelings of suppression, to
feelings of anger, …it spreads like wildfire when
people realize they are not alone.
• Facebook and Twitter are FREE!
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Arab Spring
• What ever the role of SMS and the importance
of these tools, the real CHANGE occurred in the
streets.
• The protests in the street determined the
outcome in Tunisia and Egypt.
• In Libya, the rag-tag army had determined the
outcome of the Qadhaffi regime.
• The courage of the people is fundamentally the
most important aspect of the Arab Spring.
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Arab Spring
• The limits of social media are evident when people
are willing to protest in the street.
• The attempts by the regimes to stymie the
movement was met by people who were
imprisoned, tortured, and even killed.
• These visible signs within a society evidence a
resolve to overthrow a repressive regime.
• Revolutionary engagement with a regime takes
different forms and involves its own timeline.
• The courage of the youth and those they inspire to
protest is admirable and palpable.
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Arab Spring

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Arab Spring
• At issues are state regimes, typically run by
autocratic family systems, where self-protection is
the highest priority.
• In many cases, the availability of hydrocarbon
economies have paved the way for intractable
government structures.
• Social mores evolve around the powerful who
preserve their roles through corruption and
predation.
• Protests are historically met with severe reprisals.
• Absence of public trust.
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Arab Spring
• Thus far, not ideological.
• The younger generation has not been motivated by
ideology; either religious or political.
• The anti-United States motivation has not been a
galvanizing force.
• The demand for human rights and dignity has been a
constant in each country.
• The young people have a sense of pride in what they
have accomplished which is translating to a new
sense of pride in their country.
• A generational shift…again the YOUTH BULGE!
Handouts: See data/charts.
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Arab Spring-contributing factors
Economic repression
No Accountability
Corruption
The looming “son”
Predation
Governments that extort its own
people
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Arab Spring-Tunisia
– Independence from France 1956
– Zine El Abidine Ben Ali assumed presidency after
coup in 1987.
– His speeches referred to democracy but the people
were denied freedom of speech, economic progress,
social mobility, and were afraid of being picked up by
Ben Ali’s police.
– Criticism of Ben Ali and/or family not tolerated.
– Internet censorship and journalistic reporting were
regulated and limited.
– Corruption was endemic of the Ben Ali family.
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Arab Spring-Tunisia
• GDP: $100 billion (2010 est.) (ranked 70th in world)
• Presidential elections, but corrupt.
• Labor force:
– Tourism: 7%
– agriculture: 18.3%
– industry: 31.9%
– services: 49.8% (2009 est.)
• Legal system: mixed legal system of civil law, based
on the French civil code, and Islamic law; some
judicial review of legislative acts in the Supreme
Court in joint session
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Arab Spring-Tunisia
• High unemployment
• Rising food prices (Key throughout region)
• Unrelenting corruption (Some MNC’s wouldn’t do business)
• Political repression
• No freedom of speech
• Government censorship throughout country
• Pervasive contempt for Ben Ali family. This
crossed all social structures
• Despair within intelligentsia as well as rural poor
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Arab Spring-Tunisia
• Mohammed Bouazizi December 17/18, 2010
• January 4, 2011 Bouazizi died
• Only 26 years old, his mother stated that her son
set himself on fire because of humiliation. (and
despair).
• The defiance in processing his coffin through the
town to Bouazizi’s gravesite began a movement.
This procession was sent out by cell phone.
• Sparked a contagion throughout the Arab World.
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Arab Spring-Tunisia
• Facebook was one of the most heavily relied
upon tools.
• “Bouazizi” become a Twitter hashmark. Then
the city, then the country as the movement
spread across the world.
• January 6, rapper arrested, only to enrage the
youth who spread his message more
deliberately.
• Lawyers in Tunis involved.
• Police use real bullets against protesters.
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Arab Spring-Tunisia

January 14, 2011

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Arab Spring-Tunisia
• Revolution on January 14, 2011
Protests subdued since March 2011
• President Ben Ali and PM Ghannouchi were
ousted.
• Ben Ali is given sanctuary in Saudi Arabia.
• Elections to a Constituent Assembly on October
23, 2011
• Number of people killed during the protests:
223.

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Arab Spring-Tunisia
• What to do after a successful revolution?
• The difficulties are most challenging.
• Elections are scheduled for October 23,
2011.
• The entire economic system must be
overhauled.
• The poor are still poor.
• But the sense of intransigency is no longer
the mood of the country.
• The anachronistic societal system has been
reversed.
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Arab Spring-after Tunisia
• Algeria: December 2010-April 2011
• Lebanon: January 2011-?
• Jordan: January 20110?
• Mauritania: January 2011-subdued May
2011
• Sudan: January 2011-subdued May 2011
• Oman: January 2011-May 2011
• Saudi Arabia: January 2011-June 2011
Aging autocrats
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Countries of the Middle East

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Arab Spring-Israel/Pal/US
• In the Middle East, an exacerbating tension
remains the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.
• Jerusalem-under 1947 Partition Plan to be an
international city.
• East Jerusalem-part of Jerusalem captured
by Jordan in ‘48 Arab-Israeli war. At which
time Jerusalem was divided in to two parts.
• Jews forced to leave E. Arabs forced to leave
W.
• Annexed by Israel in ‘67 war.
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• The Arab world remains concerned about many
issues. Oftentimes, the subject of international law
dominates the peace process.
• UNSCR 242 (11/67) –Israel must leave occupied E.
Jerusalem.
• 1980 Knesset passed Israeli law-all of Jerusalem is
now legally part of Israel.
• UNSCR 478 declared this “null and void” and Israel in
violation of IL.
• About 27 sq miles (not an accurate calculation). Arab
business district.
• Palestinians claim it for their cap. Although Ramallah
is, in effect, the central city for the Palestinians.
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• Another problem is the matter of settlements.
• Over 300,000 Israeli settlers live in the West
Bank. If we assume the Israeli settler population
of the West Bank remained constant at just
300,000 through today, it would make up
approximately 3.9% of Israel’s total population
(7.7 million).
• According to an article from fall 2010, another
200,00 Israelis live in East Jerusalem, which
Israel gained control of in 1967’s Six Day War.
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• 1967 resolutions that have been contravened.
In the Arab eyes, it delegitimizes Israel.
• The days of globalization are affecting the view
of Israel in the midst of the Arab world.
• Yet, Israel will ask, “Who are we to negotiate
with?”
• Fatah/Hamas is a difficult piece.
• Hamas appears to be moving toward a more
moderate stance.
• Fatah seeks increased political power.
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• Hamas-actor in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• Hamas is the Arabic acronym for the Islamic Resistance
Movement, a Palestinian organization committed to
eliminating Israel and replacing it with an Islamic state.
• Considered a terrorist organization by the United States
and the West for its suicide attacks on Israel, it is popular
among Palestinians for its network of schools, clinics and
civic services, as well as its armed resistance to Israeli
military occupation.
• The group is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, an
Egyptian-based organization that has advocated Islamic
government in the Arab world for 80 years.
• Hamas's capture of an Israeli soldier Cpl. Gilad Shalit.on
June 29 marked a new tactic in the group's strategy for
fighting Israeli military occupation. (Prisoner sway for 400
Pal women/children). of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the
Property
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• FATAH-actor in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• Fatah is Arabic for, literally, "opening," although the
word is closer in spirit to "victory" or "conquest.“
• Fatah is also an acronym in reverse for harakat
tahrir filastin, or Palestine Liberation Movement.
• Fatah is a Palestinian political party founded in the
late 1950s by a group of Palestinian exiles working
in the countries of the Arab Gulf.
• Fatah's most recognizable founder, and eventually
its autocratic leader, was Yasser Arafat, who gave up
a lucrative job as an engineer in Kuwait.
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Arab Spring
Next week-Egypt

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Arab Spring-Egypt
• Egypt – a key leader in the Arab world.
• Made peace with Israel.
• Strong ties with the United States
• Prestigious culture.
• Esteemed by intellectuals for its historical
emphasis on learning.
• Egyptian revolution sent a strong message to the
Arab rulers.
• The fall of Muhbarak’s regime was a game-
changer. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the
Box International

Arab Spring-Egypt
• Sparked by beating death of Khaled Said at the
hands of police.
• Cause has been said to be for posting a video on the
Internet.
• Police state for 40 odd years.
• The young people in the Arab world have fed off of
the courage of each other.
• The regime was not ready for the force of the anger.
• CHANGE is what the youth want. The intent has not
been to seek rule.
• Elections are what they want to see.
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Arab Spring-Egypt
• Youth bulge-60% of population are under 30
• Economies are changing in ME.
• Need soft skills for this new market
• Not taught in colleges in ME, not part of culture
• Market driven economies are emerging in ME.
• Creative thinking, project managers,
• Saudi Arabia: 40% of male college grads are
unemployed.
• Lack of social mobility is a leading driver of the
revolution in Egypt.
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Arab Spring-Egypt
• In Egypt, food is a highly political issue. The
world’s biggest wheat importer, where one in
five people lives on less than $1 a day, provides
subsidized bread for 14.2 million people.
• Bread and cereal prices rose 2.42% in Algeria
between November 2009 to 2010. In Tunisia,
whose popular uprising which toppled the
country’s leader, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, has
become a rallying cry for the Arab world’s
protesters, bread and cereal prices rose only
3.5% during 2010.
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Arab Spring-Egypt
• Egypt is unique in the Arab world with its
numbers of educated -- state employees,
students, professionals and the intelligentsia.
• However, the absence of jobs, particularly during
the global recession led to a re-evaluation of
how Egypt must contend with the realities of
modernity.
• Globalized recession indicates the undeniable
inter-connectedness of states.

Box International

Arab Spring-Egypt
• Police-security apparatus groomed under
Muhbarak regime.
• Secret police-also created under previous
government.
• Military has been a professional core of the
state.
• Thrust in to new responsibilities in the post-
revolution era.
• Ill prepared for democratic transition.
• Military training does not dispose those in
charge of mediation, collaboration, or…
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Arab Spring-Egypt
• Military’s role is to protect the country.
• Professional class trained in large part by U.S.
counterparts.
• Highly respected in Egypt.
• Communication going on with U.S. military
mentors/trainers throughout revolution.
• Saw role as force for stability.
• Could not support President Muhbarak when it
because obvious that the educated, the
influential began to support the movement.
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Arab Spring-Egypt
• Those in power see U.S. in a realistic sense.
– Enabling to the regime.
– Democratic influence in the world.
– Self interest is highest value.
– Allied with Israel.
– New black president who seems to be supportive to
the Arab world.
– Able to throw support to youth & protesters.
– Want good relationship

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Arab Spring-Egypt
• Clashes between Salafist Muslims and Coptic
Christians. (Christians are 10% of Egypt’s 80 million)
• Indeed, it goes back to the Arab invasion in A.D. 641
which first brought Islam to Egypt.
• Copts lived with dhimmi status, members of a
protected minority but without full rights.
• Historians and modern writers disagree as to the
conditions of the dhimmi system.
• The dhimmi system was a tax, but also included a
system of political exclusion, economic exploitation,
religious persecution, and social degradation.
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Arab Spring-Egypt
• In the aftermath of the Muhbarak regime, many
of the pressure-points that we held in check
through the tools of brutality, imprisonment,
torture, and economic imbalance have been
removed.
• Egypt is undergoing the reality of movement
toward a more representative state…and all the
challenges that accompany such political
alteration.

Box International

Arab Spring-Egypt
• Egypt is unique in the Arab world with its
substantial educated middle class -- state
employees, students, professionals and the
intelligentsia.
• However, the absence of jobs in recent time,
particularly during the global recession led to a
re-evaluation of how Egypt must contend with
the realities of modernity.
• Globalized recession indicates the undeniable
inter-connectedness of states.
Box International

Arab Spring-Egypt-timing
• Food prices
• Fragmentation
• Generation that is not focused on anti-colonialism
• Previous activism included “leftist” movements,
Islamist motivations, and anti-Israeli protests.
• Other previous activism arose out of the class
stratification: peasants, urban, trade, and state elite.
• Al Qaeda, Muslim Brotherhood do not represent a
high percentage of the youth who are focused on
jobs, future of their lives.
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Arab Spring
• Youth bulge-60% of population are under 30
• Economies are changing in ME.
• Need soft skills for this new market
• Not taught in colleges in ME, not part of culture
• Market driven economies are emerging in ME.
• Creative thinking, project managers,
• Saudi Arabia: 40% of male college grads are
unemployed.

Box International

Arab Spring-Syria
• Began on January 26, 2011 as a protest.
• Hasan Ali Akleh from Al-Hasakah poured gasoline on
himself and set himself on fire.
• March 2011 calls for end of Assad regime.
• Calls for end to emergency law. (1963-present)
• As we have previously addressed, the importance of
social media and cellular telephones.
• Satellite TV is rapidly spreading in the Arab world,
bringing alternative information to break the hold of
state television.
• Skyline of Damascus, filled with satellite dishes
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Arab Spring-Syria
• The Assad regime is extensive. The family has
people in every sector of the nation.
• The brutal crack down is the will of the family
/system to maintain power.
• Use of snipers, tanks, and torture
• The story of Egypt and Libya have hardened the
Assad regime.
• Over 4,000+ (precise numbers unknown due to
limited access of reporters in Syria) people have
been killed. Many more imprisoned, tortured, or
have fled the state.
• Reporters are tightly controlled.
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Arab Spring-Syria
• Has been under “emergency law” since 1963.
• Justification for the decades long suspension of the
constitutional rights of the Syrians has included the “war with
Israel”.
• However, abject power and brutality defined Hafez al-Assad
(1970-2000) regime.
• Bashar al-Assad has moved in the direction of his father’s
brutality. The family retains extensive control.
• Bashar’s younger brother Maher al-Assad commands the
army's Fourth Armored Division.
• His brother-in-law, Assef Shawkat, is deputy chief of staff of
the army.
• Family is said to fear that failure to take a hard line on
protesters could embolden them, bringing much larger crowds
into the streets. (Influence from Iran)
• Shabbiha-the Assad’s secret police has been lethal.
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Arab Spring-Syria
• The actual power of Bashar al-Assad is
questionable. He may have been co-opted by his
father’s “machine”.
• The Alawite sect represents less than 15% of the
population yet, cronyism for the Assad family + is
source of resentments/attacks.
• The majority Sunni must work within the Shia’
control.
• The Kurds are a group that create unrest.
• There is a small minority of Christians (10%).
• Violence is contained through repression and
control of Assad regime.
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Arab Spring-Syria
• Stalwart ally of the Palestinians
• Russia has a base in Syria (Tartus)
• Chavez is friend
• Hezbollah
• Iran
• Wage freezes
• National media is a issue
• Russia and China will not turn on Assad
• Firewall against U.S. presence throughout ME
• Syria wants to put fear back in
• United Nations concern for numbers of dead
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Arab Spring-Syria
• The Arab League has shown impressive public
resolve against Syria.
• The Arab League's sanctions committee confirmed
it would freeze the assets of 19 top Syrian officials
and Assad associates, and ban them from entering
other Arab countries.
• The number of flights to Syria would be halved.
• The League warned that more measures could be
imposed if Syria did not stop the crackdown against
protesters.
• This marks a shift in the previous practice of Arab
solidarity.
Box International

Arab Spring-Yemen
• Sparked by the state removal of some 30 families in a
tribal area from their land then given to friend of
President Salah. (January 2011).

• Yemeni forces are split.
• Backward culture, Islamic practices are ancient.
• Failing state due to lack of water and corrupt governance.
• Yemen could be the first nation to completely run out of
water in a few years, a prospect that does not bode well
for its young population of 24 million that is expected to
double in 20 years, or anyone worried about the rising
influence (and ability to get bombs on planes) of an al
Qaeda branch in one of the Middle East's poorest nations.
Box International

Arab Spring-Yemen
• Christopher Boucek of the Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace, wrote in testimony to
Congress in February 2010, "The failure to
establish local water corporations in several
governorates that historically have not received
much support or social services from the central
government has raised fear that a resurgent al
Qaeda may seek refuge there.”
• Yemen is a fragile state. Its future is teetering on
fragile and failing.
Box International

Arab Spring-Yemen

• Part of the problem is qat, an addictive plant like
chewed by about 75% of men in Yemen that takes a
whole lot of water to grow. In places where vineyards
used to be, farmers now are growing the more lucrative
qat, which uses five times the amount of water as
grapes but can be harvested and sold relatively quickly
after it's planted. Property of Beth Hill-Skinner@Out of the
Box International

Arab Spring-Bahrain
• Pearl Revolution
• Began Feb. 17, 2011.
• “Pearl” for divers of pearls
in the region.
• Began as a peaceful
movement.
• Primarily directed toward more representation
for Shi’a population. (70% of the population)
• Second aim, reform of the current government is
also sought.
Box International

Arab Spring-Bahrain
• Unwritten social contract that binds the Gulf Cooperation
Council's six sheikhdoms of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
• Social contract: the ruling monarchy offers free housing, health
care, education, food subsidies, and a government job for life. In
return, the people defer to a system of tribal autocracy that gives
little or no political representation to the masses.
• Examples: In Kuwait, a man can get a $250,000 interest-free loan
(repaid in tiny installments over a lifetime) to buy a house; in
Qatar, someone diagnosed with cancer could be sent along with a
family member to London for medical treatment – and the entire
tab is picked up by the state; in Abu Dhabi, if a student gets
accepted to Harvard Medical School, the relevant ministry may
offer the student a scholarship with full living expenses.
Box International

Arab Spring-Bahrain
• Bahrain has strong ties with Saudi Arabia.
• The Saudi / Iranian polarity figures in to its response to the
Bahraini request for assistance.
• WikiLeaks-
• "He revealed that Bahrain already has contacts with Israel at the
intelligence/security level (i.e. with Mossad) and indicated that
Bahrain will be willing to move forward in other areas," Monroe
wrote, referring to Israel's spy agency.
• The cable also indicated King Hamad had ordered his public
information minister to stop referring to Israel as the "Zionist
entity" or "enemy" in official statements, Haaretz quoted the cable
as saying.
• But the king reportedly baulked at the idea of establishing trade
ties with Israel, saying it would have to wait until the
establishment of a PalestinianHill-Skinner@Out of the
Property of Beth
state, it said.
Box International

Arab Spring-Bahrain
• Protests ended when government violence cleared the
plaza.
• Hospitals were scenes of violence and doctors, nurses have
reported threats against their lives as well as threats of jail
time.
• The kingdom is reportedly poorly managed and there was
great pressure to quell the protests to restore the economic
sector.
• Recent report confirmed human rights violations .

Box International

Arab Spring-Turkey
• Is considered a model for the countries undergoing
the Arab Spring.
• In foreign trade and economy, Turkey is reaping the
results of the democratic practices.
• The practices implemented in political and social
sectors during the 2000s have evolved in to a more
advanced democracy in the Middle East.
• Turkey's diplomatic initiative proves in the
international arena is an indication of its position in
the world. Has become the region’s power broker.
• In good relations with Iran.
Box International

Arab Spring
• Many factors contributed to the timing of the Arab
Spring 2010/2011.
• What is certain is that nation states in the Middle
East and in the Arab world are contending with a
rising youth population.
• The aging autocrats are faced with choices to move
towards reform or risk populist revolutions.
• While the story continues, the face of the Middle
East continues to change.
• For more information, contact Beth Hill-Skinner at
info@out ofboxintl.com and (310) 722-5488.
Box International

The Arab Spring

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The Arab Spring