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Analyzing the gender pay gap
Francine D. Blau,* Lawrence M. Kahn
New York State School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University, 265 Ives Hall,
Ithaca, NY 14853-3901, USA
Abstract
Empirical research on gender pay gaps has traditionally focused on the role of gender-specific
factors, particularly gender differences in qualifications and differences in the treatment of
otherwise equally qualified male and female workers (i.e., labor market discrimination). This paper
explores the determinants of the gender pay gap and argues for the importance of an additional
factor, wage structure, the array of prices set for labor market skills and the rewards received for
employment in favored sectors. Drawing on our previous work we illustrate the impact of wage
structure by presenting empirical results analyzing its effect on international differences in the
gender gap and trends over time in the gender differential in the U.S. © 1999 Board of Trustees
of the University of Illinois. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Gender pay gap; Wage structure
1. Introduction
The gender pay gap has traditionally been a central focus of economists concerned with
the economics of gender. This is because the wage is of fundamental importance as a major
determinant of economic welfare for employed individuals, as well as of the potential gain
to market employment for those not currently employed. Further it serves as a significant
input into a multitude of decisions ranging from labor supply to marriage and fertility, as well
as a factor influencing bargaining power and relative status within the family.
Research on the sources of the gender pay gap has traditionally focused on the role of what
might be termed, “gender-specific” factors, particularly gender differences in qualifications
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 11-607-255-4381; fax: 11-607-255-4496.
E-mail address: FDB4@Cornell.EDU (F.D. Blau)
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
1062-9769/99/$ – see front matter © 1999 Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. All rights reserved.
PII: S1062-9769(99)00021-6
and differences in the treatment of otherwise equally qualified male and female workers (i.e.,
labor market discrimination). Following Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1991) and Katz and
Murphy (1992), an innovative feature of recent research on gender and race differentials has
been to treat the analysis of demographic differentials and the study of wage structure in an
integrated fashion.1
Wage structure describes the array of prices set for various labor market
skills (measured and unmeasured) and rents received for employment in particular sectors of
the economy.
Wage structure is potentially of considerable importance in determining the relative
earnings of groups like women who tend on average to have lower skills or to be located in
lower paying sectors of the economy. In this paper, we first consider the determinants of
gender differentials, highlighting the role of wage structure. We then illustrate the impact of
wage structure by summarizing some of our recent work on international differences in
male-female wage differentials (Blau and Kahn, 1992, 1995, 1996b), and on trends over time
in gender differentials in the U.S. (Blau and Kahn, 1994, 1997). We then offer some
concluding thoughts and suggest some implications for public policy.
2. Determinants of the gender pay gap: gender specific factors
Economists’ efforts to understand the gender pay gap have traditionally rested on two
pillars: the human capital explanation and models of labor market discrimination. These are
gender specific explanations in that they focus on gender differences in qualifications or
treatment as the cause of the pay gap.
Human capital explanations developed by Mincer and Polachek (1974), Polachek (1981)
and others explain gender differences in economic outcomes on the basis of productivity
differences between the sexes resulting from the traditional division of labor within the
family. They suggest that, as a consequence of their role within the family, women anticipate
shorter and more discontinuous work lives and hence have less incentive to invest in
market-oriented formal education and on-the-job training than men. This lowers their
earnings relative to men’s. Similar considerations are expected to produce gender differences
in occupations, as women choose jobs where such investments are less important and where
the wage penalties for work force interruptions are smaller. In the absence of parental leave
policies, women will especially avoid jobs requiring large investments in firm-specific skills
because the returns to such investments are reaped only as long as one remains with the firm.
Since the costs of firm-specific training are shared by employers and employees, employers
are also expected to be reluctant to hire women for these jobs due to their shorter expected
tenure. The difficulty of distinguishing more career-oriented women from less career-
oriented women means that the former may be the victims of “statistical discrimination”
based on average gender differences in attachment to the firm and the labor market (see
below).
Thus, the human capital model provides a logically consistent explanation for gender
differences in labor market outcomes based on the traditional division of labor in the family.
Not only will women earn less, but they will tend to be located in different occupations.
Gender differences in industrial distribution could also occur if industries vary in their skill
626 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
requirements. Thus the human capital model provides a rationale for the pay gap based on
the voluntary decisions of women and men. Working in a similar direction is Becker’s (1985)
model in which the longer hours women spend on housework lower the effort they put into
their market jobs compared to men’s and hence reduce their wages.
To the extent that gender differences in outcomes are not fully accounted for by human
capital and other supply-side considerations, models of labor market discrimination offer an
explanation. Theoretical work on discrimination was initiated by Becker’s (1957) examina-
tion of race discrimination. Becker conceptualized discrimination as a taste or personal
prejudice against members of a particular group. Models of statistical discrimination were
later developed, in part to explain the persistence of discrimination in the long run in the face
of competitive labor markets (e.g., Aigner and Cain, 1977; and Lundberg and Startz, 1983).
Such models assume a world of uncertainty and imperfect information and focus on
differences between groups in the expected productivity or in the reliability with which
productivity may be predicted. Another aspect of interest is the relationship between
occupational segregation and a discriminatory wage gap formulated in Bergmann’s (1974)
overcrowding model. She argues that discriminatory exclusion of women from “male” jobs
results in an excess supply of labor in “female” occupations, depressing wages there for
otherwise equally productive workers.
These two broad sets of explanations, gender differences in qualifications and labor
market discrimination against otherwise similar men and women, do not necessarily consti-
tute mutually exclusive sources of gender wage differentials. Both may play a role and
empirical studies based on cross-sectional data within countries provide considerable em-
pirical support for each. Typical findings from these types of studies are illustrated in Fig. 1
drawn from Blau and Kahn (1997) based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics
(PSID). As may be seen in the figure, the gender ratio in the U.S. rose from 62.2 to 72.4
percent over the 1980’s. (Reasons for these trends are considered below.) The gender ratio
adjusted for human capital characteristics (i.e., formal education and actual labor market
experience)—71.5 in 1979 and 80.5 in 1988—is larger than the unadjusted ratio, but still
considerably smaller than parity between male and female earnings. If, in addition, we adjust
for industry, occupation, and unionization, the gender ratio is increased still further but, even
then, a non-negligible gap of 12 percent remains, down from 22 percent in 1979. Moreover,
the inclusion of the latter set of variables may be questioned in that, as discussed below,
employers may affect these characteristics through hiring and other employment decisions.
The portion of the gender differential explained by measured factors was not found to
change greatly over the same period in the human capital specification. Women’s lower
levels of human capital (primarily full-time experience) accounted for roughly one-third of
the pay gap in 1988 compared to 29.4 percent in 1979.2
When industry, occupation and union
status are added to the model, the explained portion of the pay gap rises more substantially
from 46.6 percent in 1979 to 61.0 percent in 1988. In each year, women were likely to be
in lower paying industries and occupations, and less likely to be covered by collective
bargaining than men, even controlling for education and actual labor market experience.
These gender differences in unionism, occupation and industry accounted for 17.2 percent of
the pay gap in 1979, rising to 28.1 percent in 1988.
Although studies of this type suggest both qualifications and discrimination play a role in
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determining the gender pay gap,3
such findings are not without their limitations. One
problem is that evidence for discrimination relies on the existence of a residual gender pay
gap which cannot be explained by gender differences in measured qualifications. This
accords well with the definition of labor market discrimination, i.e., pay differences between
groups that are not explained by productivity differences, but may also reflect group
differences in unmeasured qualifications or compensating differentials. If men are more
highly endowed with respect to these omitted variables, then we would overestimate
discrimination. Alternatively, if some of the factors controlled for (e.g., occupation, industry
and unionism as included in the “full” specification above) themselves reflect the impact of
discrimination, then discrimination will be underestimated.
Another challenge to empirically decomposing the gender pay gap into its constituent
parts is the existence of feedback effects. The traditional division of labor in the family is
likely to influence women’s market outcomes through its effects on their acquisition of
human capital and on rationales for employer discrimination against them. But it is also the
case that, by lowering the market rewards to women’s human capital investments and labor
force attachment, discrimination may reinforce the traditional division of labor in the family
(e.g., Blau, 1984; Blau, Ferber and Winkler, 1998; Weiss and Gronau, 1981; Lundberg and
Startz, 1983). Thus, even small initial discriminatory differences in wages may cumulate to
Fig. 1 Unadjusted and adjusted female-male wage ratios, U.S. 1979–88
628 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
large ones as men and women make human capital investment and time allocation decisions
on the basis of them.
Additional evidence of discrimination comes from three recent studies which take a
different approach to the question than most previous research. Wood, Corcoran, and
Courant (1993) focused on an especially homogeneous group, graduates of the University of
Michigan Law School classes of 1972–1975, 15 years after graduation. Moreover, this study
employed extensive controls for qualifications, including grades while in law school and
detailed work histories. The gap in pay between women and men was found to be relatively
small at the outset of their careers, but 15 years later, women graduates earned only 60
percent as much as men. Some of this difference reflected choices which workers themselves
had made, including the propensity of women lawyers to work shorter hours. But even
controlling for this factor as well as a detailed list of worker qualifications, women were
found to earn 20 percent less than men.
The second study, Neumark (1996), analyzed the results of a hiring “audit” in which male
and female job seekers were given similar résumés and sent to apply for a job at the same
set of firms, in 65 Philadelphia restaurants. Matched pairs of men and women applied for jobs
as waiters and waitresses. The results provided statistically significant evidence of discrim-
ination against women in high-priced restaurants where earnings of workers are generally
higher than in the other establishments. In these restaurants, a female applicant’s probability
of getting an interview was 40 percentage points lower than a male’s and her probability of
getting an offer was 50 percentage points lower.
Finally, the third study, Goldin and Rouse (1997), examined the impact of the adoption of
“blind” auditions on the representation of women in symphony orchestras. In blind auditions
a screen is used to conceal the identity of the candidate from the jury. Female musicians in
the top five symphony orchestras in the United States were less than 5% of all players in 1970
but are 25% today. Using data from actual auditions Goldin and Rouse found that the screen
substantially increases the probability that a woman will be advanced out of preliminary
rounds of auditions, and the likelihood a female contestant will be the winner in the final
round. They found that the switch to blind auditions can explain between 25% and 46% of
the increase in the percentage female in orchestras since 1970.
3. Determinants of the gender pay gap: the role of wage structure
Although a clear determination of the impact of qualifications vs. discrimination on the
gender pay gap is difficult for both empirical and conceptual reasons, both explanations share
a common focus of being gender specific in nature. Analyses of trends over time in the
gender differential within countries as well as intercountry comparisons of gender earnings
ratios have traditionally tended to emphasize these types of gender-specific factors. However,
the last 15 to 20 years have been a time of ferment in labor markets with rapid changes in
skill differentials and wage inequality in much of the industrialized world. Nowhere have
these changes been more dramatic than in the U.S. It has thus been a natural extension of the
study of these types of realignments to examine their consequences for various demographic
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groups. Moreover, upon further reflection it is clear that the traditional gender-specific
factors imply an important role for wage structure.
The human capital model suggests that men and women tend to have different levels of
labor market qualifications (especially work experience) and to be employed in different
occupations and perhaps in different industries. Discrimination models too suggest that
women may be segregated in different sectors of the labor market. This implies that the
returns to skills and the size of premia for employment in particular sectors potentially play
an important role in determining the pay gap. All else equal, the larger the returns to skills
and the larger the rents received by individuals in favored sectors, the larger will be the
gender gap. Similarly, labor market discrimination and/or actual female deficits in unmea-
sured skills result in employers treating women as if they have lower unmeasured as well as
measured skills. Thus, the higher the rewards to unmeasured skills, the larger will be the
gender gap, after controlling for measured characteristics.
The notion of a “high” or a “low” return is intrinsically a relative concept. Thus, the
framework provided by wage structure requires some frame of reference and is particularly
useful in analyzing changes over time in gender differentials or differences across countries
in gender gaps. Such intertemporal and cross-country comparisons enable us to measure the
effects of wage structure comparatively with reference to the situation that existed at an
earlier point in time or that prevails in another country.
Wage structure itself is determined by a variety of factors, including relative supplies of
labor of various skill levels, technology, the composition of demand, and wage-setting
institutions. In recent years, there has been an increase in wage inequality within most of the
industrialized countries (Gottschalk and Joyce, 1995). Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1993), in
their work on the U.S. trend, make a strong case that it reflects a rising return to skills, both
measured and unmeasured. We do not have full consensus regarding the reasons for this
increase in the return to skill, but technological change and the impact of international trade
are two of the chief candidates in the United States (e.g., Katz and Murphy, 1992, Bound and
Johnson, 1992, Borjas and Ramey, 1995). In addition, institutional factors, including declin-
ing union density and a falling real value of the minimum wage, appear to have also
contributed to rising inequality (Freeman, 1993; Card, 1996; DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux,
1996).
With respect to international comparisons, we have emphasized in our previous work that
systems of centrally-determined pay are likely to entail less wage inequality and smaller
gender wage differentials for a number of reasons. First, in the U.S., a significant portion of
the male-female pay gap has been found to be associated with interindustry or interfirm wage
differentials (Blau, 1977; Johnson and Solon, 1986; Sorensen, 1990; Groshen, 1991). This
relatively large pay variation is to some extent an outgrowth of our relatively decentralized
pay-setting institutions, while centralized systems which reduce the extent of wage variation
across industries and firms are likely to lower the gender differential, all else equal. Second,
since in all countries the female wage distribution lies below the male distribution, central-
ized systems that substantially raise minimum pay levels regardless of gender will also tend
to lower male-female wage differentials. In Blau and Kahn (1996a), we find considerable
evidence consistent with the view that, compared to the U.S., the more centralized wage
setting institutions of other industrialized countries not only reduce overall wage inequality,
630 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
but that this reduction is primarily due to greater compression at the bottom of the wage
distribution rather than at the top. This tendency to bring up the bottom of the wage
distribution from which women disproportionately benefit in turn reflects not only the impact
of conscious government and union policies in some countries, but, more generally, cen-
tralized wage-setting institutions in both the union and nonunion sector which lead to greater
wage compression within each sector compared to the U.S. Of particular interest is the
greater prevalence in other countries of contract extension as well as informal mechanisms
which extend union-determined wages (and thus the more compressed union wage structure)
to the nonunion sector.
4. International differences in the gender gap: a U.S.-Sweden comparison
Our work on international differences in the gender gap addresses a puzzle. While the
relative qualifications of American women are high compared to women in other countries
and the U.S. has had a longer and often stronger commitment to anti-discrimination laws than
most other economically advanced nations, the U.S. has traditionally been among the
countries with the largest gender gaps. Our results based on comparisons of the U.S. to nine
other industrialized nations (Blau and Kahn, 1995, 1996b) suggests that the resolution of this
paradox lies in the enormous importance of overall wage structure. That is, the gender gap
in the U.S. is relatively high, not because of the traditional gender-specific factors but rather
due to the relatively large penalty that the U.S. wage structure imposes on groups that have
below average skills (measured and unmeasured) or are located in less favored sectors. We
find that the U.S. gap would be similar to that in countries like Sweden and Australia (which
have the smallest differentials) if the U.S. had their level of wage inequality.
We illustrate the role of wage structure in influencing international differences in the
gender pay gap in more detail by presenting some of our findings for the U.S.-Sweden
comparison (Blau and Kahn, 1996b). This comparison is of interest because Sweden has one
of the highest gender ratios of the economically advanced countries, and the U.S. has one of
the lowest. This was particularly the case for the year from which we draw our data, 1984;
the gender gap has narrowed in the U.S. since then. An additional reason why our results for
these two countries are especially interesting is that our data sources, the Michigan Panel
Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) for the U.S. and the Household Market and Nonmarket
Activities Survey (HUS) for Sweden, contain information on actual labor market experience
and thus permit us to control for this important variable in our wage regressions and
corresponding decompositions.
3.1. U.S.-Sweden differences in the gender gap
The extent of the U.S.-Sweden difference in gender ratios may be seen in Table 1 which
shows unadjusted and adjusted gender log wage ratios for each country in 1984.4
The
unadjusted ratio of 66.9 percent for the U.S. was nearly 16 percentage points lower than the
82.7 percent for Sweden—a considerable difference. Swedish women also fare better after
adjusting for all measured variables, including education and experience, as well as major
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industry and occupation: the adjusted wage ratio5
was 82.2 percent for the U.S. and 90.9
percent for Sweden. Thus, while adjusting for measured characteristics raises the ratio in
each country and reduces the gap between the two countries, a substantial differential in
gender ratios of almost 9 percentage points remains.
Interpreting these findings in terms of the conventional gender-specific explanations
would lead us to view the smaller unexplained gender gap in Sweden as indicating that,
compared to U.S. women, Swedish women encounter less discrimination or have more
favorable levels of unmeasured characteristics compared to men or both. The reduction in the
U.S.-Sweden difference in the gender gap when controls are added for measured character-
istics would imply that Swedish women, on net, also have more favorable levels of measured
characteristics compared to their male counterparts than do U.S. women. These conclusions
make intuitive sense in some respects. With regard to measured characteristics, Sweden’s
considerably more generous family leave policy may result in Swedish women being more
firmly attached to their employers and to the labor market than U.S. women.6
With respect
to discrimination, the results are somewhat surprising in that, as noted above, the U.S. has
a considerably longer history of anti-discrimination laws than Sweden. However, it could be
that Sweden’s long term commitment to attacking traditional gender roles through a variety
of policies is responsible for the smaller unexplained pay gap in Sweden.
3.2. The role of wage structure
Despite the apparent reasonableness of the conclusions based on the conventional ap-
proach, our examination of the role of wage structure suggests that they are incorrect. It is
not differences in women’s qualifications or labor market treatment that are responsible for
the larger U.S. gender gap, rather it is differences in overall labor market prices in the two
countries. Based on the Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1991) framework described in greater
detail below, gender-specific factors, including differences in qualifications and the impact
of labor market discrimination, may be regarded as determining the percentile ranking of
women in the male wage distribution, while the overall wage structure (as measured by the
magnitude of male wage inequality) determines the wage penalty or reward associated with
this position in the wage distribution.
Table 1
Descriptive statistics: Sweden and the U. S., 1984a
USA Sweden
Gender log wage differential 0.4019 0.1897
Gender wage ratio (percent) 66.9 82.7
Mean female percentile 29.6 29.9
Male residual standard deviation 0.5110 0.2324
Female residual standard deviationb
0.4862 0.2283
Adjusted wage ratio 82.2 90.9
Mean female residual percentile 36.6 37.4
a
Based on HUS data for Sweden and PSID data for the United States.
b
Calculated from female wage regressions.
Source: Blau and Kahn (1996b).
632 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
The basic premise here is that a woman and a man who rank the same in the male wage
distribution are viewed as comparable in the eyes of employers. Thus, the same set of factors
(i.e., the overall wage structure) will determine the relative rewards of women and of such
comparable males. The portion of the gender differential associated with women’s lower
ranking in the male distribution in country A as compared to country B is ascribed to
differences between the two countries in gender-specific factors (i.e., qualifications and
treatment), while the portion that is due to the wage penalty associated with that position (i.e.,
greater wage inequality) in country A than in country B is attributed to wage structure. Some
indirect evidence for the assumption that the same factors determine the relative rewards of
women and comparable males, is that wage inequality is higher (Blau and Kahn, 1995,
1996b)7
and has been increasing more rapidly (Katz and Murphy, 1992; Blau and Kahn,
1996b) among both men and women in the U.S. than in the other countries. This suggests that
the same sets of factors–the prices of measured and unmeasured skills and wage-setting
institutions–affect the wages of both men and women in a similar way.
It should be noted, however, that the possibility of discrimination complicates this division
into gender-specific factors and wage structure because what we have labeled as the impact
of wage structure may also include a component which is due to the interaction between
wage structure and discrimination. That is, discrimination pushes women down in the
distribution of male wages, while wage structure determines how large the penalty is for that
lower position in the distribution.
Table 1 presents the mean percentile rankings of women in each country’s overall male
wage distribution8
and in the male distribution of residuals from the male wage regression.9
Our reasoning suggests that the female percentile rankings may be taken as overall indicators
of gender-specific factors. The placement of women in the overall male wage distribution
represents the combined effects of gender differences in measured characteristics and
treatment (or unmeasured characteristics). The ranking of women in the male residual wage
distribution represents the effect of gender differences in treatment (or unmeasured charac-
teristics) only since the impact of gender differences in measured characteristics has been
controlled for.
Looking first at the findings for the unadjusted gender wage difference, we see that,
despite the large U.S.-Sweden difference in the unadjusted gender gap, the mean percentile
rankings of women in the male wage distribution in Sweden and the U.S. are virtually
identical. On average in each country women rank at about the 30th percentile in the male
wage distribution. This implies that the large difference in the gender gap between the two
countries is entirely due to differences in wage structure, i.e., the larger wage penalty placed
on women’s lower position in the male wage distribution in the U.S. This means that at the
same mean percentile ranking, the resulting U.S. gender ratio is much lower than in Sweden.
As discussed above, the overall mean female percentile rankings in Table 1 show the
combined effect of both sets of gender-specific factors: qualifications and labor market
discrimination. It would be interesting to compare the U.S. and Sweden with respect to the
latter, that is their treatment of otherwise equally qualified men and women. We have seen
that the traditional estimate which involves computing adjusted earnings ratios, indicates that
Swedish women fare considerably better. At the same time, as also noted above, such
estimates are subject to bias; and the adjusted ratios presented in Table 1 are no exception.
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On the one hand, we may lack data on some factors which influence wages, although our
inclusion of actual labor market experience at least surmounts this particular problem. On the
other hand, we control for broadly defined industry and occupation even though these
variables may reflect the impact of labor market discrimination. What is primarily of interest
here, however, is the contrast between the traditional measure, the adjusted ratio and the
female residual percentile.
For each country, we place each woman’s residual from the male wage regression into the
distribution of male wage residuals (from the male wage regression) and find the female
mean of the resulting percentiles. This is an indicator of the relative wages of women in each
country after controlling for gender differences in personal characteristics, industry and
occupation. Unlike the traditional measure, it is not contaminated by differences in wage
structure between the two countries. The caveat of course remains that, as with any analysis
of this type, differences in the female rankings may also represent cross-country differences
in the unmeasured characteristics of women relative to men. Indeed, in the absence of
discrimination, one way to think of the rewards (penalties) associated with a higher (lower)
position in the residual wage distribution would be as a return to unmeasured skills or
characteristics.
We again find that while there are sizable U.S.-Sweden differences in the adjusted gender
ratios, the mean percentile rankings of women in the residual wage distribution are virtually
identical: after controlling for personal characteristics, industry and occupation, women in
each country rank at about the 37th percentile, on average. This implies that the observed
differences in the adjusted gender ratios in Table 1 are entirely due to differences in wage
structure between the two countries, i.e., the larger wage penalty placed on women’s lower
position in the male residual wage distribution in the U.S. Putting this somewhat differently,
the extent of labor market discrimination against women (or unmeasured productivity
differences between men and women) appears to be no greater in the U.S. than in Sweden.
A more detailed decomposition of the Swedish-U.S. difference in the gender wage gap
may be obtained using a decomposition method developed by Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce
(1991) to examine within-country trends in demographic differentials. We have adapted this
technique to decompose international differences in gender pay gaps into a portion due to
gender-specific factors and a portion due to differences in wage structure. The results of this
decomposition are shown in Table 2. The notes to the Table and Blau and Kahn (1996b)
provide the technical details. Here we briefly summarize the interpretation of the compo-
nents.
The “observed X’s effect” gives the contribution of inter-country differences in observed
labor market qualifications of men and women (X) to the gender gap. For example, the pay
gap in one country may be less than in another owing to women’s higher relative levels of
education. The “observed prices effect” reflects the impact of different measured prices
across countries for observed labor market qualifications. For example, for a given (positive)
male-female difference in schooling, a higher return to education will raise the male-female
pay gap. The “gap effect” measures the effect of international differences in the relative wage
positions of men and women after controlling for measured characteristics (i.e., whether
women rank higher or lower within the male residual wage distribution). That is, it gives the
contribution to the international difference in the gender gap that would result if the two
634 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
countries had the same levels of residual male wage inequality and differed only in their
percentile rankings of the female wage residuals. In one country, for instance, the average
woman’s wage residual may be at the 35th
percentile of the male distribution, while in
another country, it may be at only the 25th
percentile. As discussed above, this percentile
ranking may reflect gender differences in unmeasured characteristics and/or the impact of
labor market discrimination against women. Finally, the “unobserved prices effect” reflects
inter-country differences in residual inequality. It measures the contribution to the inter-
country difference that would result if two countries had the same percentile rankings of the
female wage residuals and differed only in the extent of male residual wage inequality.
Suppose, as is likely, that deficits in female unmeasured skills or discrimination lower
women’s position in the male distribution of wage residuals. The larger the penalty a country
places on this lower position, the larger will be its pay gap.
The full impact of gender-specific factors is reflected in the sum of the observed X’s and
Table 2
Analysis of the difference in the gender pay gap: Sweden and the U. S., 1984a
Component Contribution to the U.S.-
Sweden Difference
Observed X’s 20.0054
Education variables 0.0226
Experience variables 20.0313
Occupation variables 20.0315
Industry variables 0.0348
Observed prices 20.1058
Education variables 20.0176
Experience variables 20.0162
Occupation variables 20.0031
Industry variables 20.0689
Gap 0.0303
Unobserved prices 20.1313
Sum gender-specific 0.0249
Sum wage structure 20.2371
Total (DSweden 2 DUSA) 20.2122
a
Based on HUS data for Sweden and PSID data for the United States.
Source: Blau and Kahn (1996b).
The difference in the gender pay gap (DS 2 DU) is the difference between the Swedish and the U.S. male 2
female log wage differential. The components of the decomposition are defined as follows:
Observed X’s Effect 5 (DXS 2 DXU)BU
Observed Prices Effect 5 DXS(BS 2 BU)
Gap Effect 5 (DuS 2 DuU)sU
Unobserved Prices Effect 5 DuS(sS 2 sU)
where the subscripts S and U refer to Sweden and the U.S., X is a vector of explanatory variables, B is a vector
of estimated coefficients from a male wage equation for the indicated country, u is a standardized residual, s is
the residual standard deviation of male wages, and a D prefix denotes the average male 2 female difference in
the variable immediately following.
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gap effects; that is the sum of the effect of gender differences in qualifications and of gender
differences in wage rankings at a given level of measured characteristics. Labor market
structure is reflected in the sum of the observed and unobserved prices effects; that is, the
impact of the U.S.-Sweden differences in returns to measured and unmeasured characteris-
tics. Within the framework of a traditional decomposition, the sum of the gap and unobserved
prices effects represents the impact of differences between the two countries in the “unex-
plained” differential which is commonly taken as an estimate of discrimination.
The detailed decomposition of the U.S.-Sweden gender log wage shown in Table 2 sheds
additional light on the specific factors underlying the general results described above. Our
finding that gender differences in observed characteristics do not contribute to the U.S.-
Sweden difference in the gender gap reflects offsetting effects. On the one hand, there is a
somewhat smaller gender difference in actual experience in Sweden (5 years) than in the U.S.
(6 years) and a slightly more favorable relative occupational distribution of Swedish than of
U.S. women.10
On the other hand, this is offset by smaller gender differences in the U.S. in
educational attainment and industrial distribution. At a common set of prices (or rewards for
measured characteristics) for both countries, the gender differences in observed character-
istics contribute about the same amount to the male-female pay gap in each country. As we
saw in our discussion of Table 1, however, using the conventional approach, differences in
characteristics contribute to a larger gender differential in the U.S. than in Sweden. This is
because the conventional approach uses own-country prices; that is Swedish prices for
Sweden and U.S. prices for the U.S. In general, the prices of skills are higher in the U.S. and
this means that the less favorable characteristics of women compared to men are more
heavily penalized in the U.S.
Breaking this price factor out separately, we find that the impact of differences in observed
prices between the U.S. and Sweden strongly favors Swedish women. The Swedish-U.S.
difference in relative rewards to employment by industry is the most important factor;11
less
favorable (for women) prices of education and experience in the U.S. also play a role.
Overall, the effect of wage structure, including the impact of the prices of both measured and
unmeasured characteristics, is more than sufficient to account for the considerably larger
gender gap in the U.S.
4. Swimming against the tide: trends in the gender gap in the U.S.
While these findings on international differences in the gender gap help to resolve one
paradox, they generate another. Our analysis implies that, in the face of rising wage
inequality, American women have been essentially swimming upstream in a labor market
which has been growing increasingly unfavorable for workers with below average skills. In
the face of rising rewards to labor market skills and employment in high paying sectors, as
appears to have occurred in the U.S. over the last 15 to 20 years, women’s relative
qualifications and labor market treatment had to improve for the pay gap to merely remain
constant; still larger gains were necessary for the pay gap to be reduced. Yet the gender pay
gap has actually fallen in the U.S. since the late 1970s.12
How can we explain this apparent
contradiction?
636 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
We have examined this issue (Blau and Kahn, 1994, 1997) and found that women, in spite
of having to swim against the current during the 1970s and 1980s, were able to narrow the
gender gap because gains in gender specific factors were large enough to more than
counterbalance the negative effect of the trends in wage structure on their relative earnings.
This may be seen in the decomposition of the 1979–1988 trends into gender specific and
wage structure components which is shown in Table 3. This decomposition is analogous to
that shown in Table 2 for the international differences in the gender gap. Table 3 shows the
results of the decomposition for two specifications: a “human capital” specification including
controls for education and experience and a “full” specification which additionally controls
Table 3
Decomposition of changes in the gender pay gap, 1979–88a
Human
capital only
Human
capital plus
IND OCC CB
Observed X’s
All X’s 20.0755 20.1244
Education variables 20.0110 20.0088
Experience variables 20.0636 20.0529
Occupation variables — 20.0458
Collective bargaining — 20.0175
Industry variables — 0.0012
Observed prices
All B’s 0.0419 0.0997
Education variables 0.0035 0.0013
Experience variables 0.0353 0.0219
Occupation variables — 0.0441
Collective bargaining — 0.0081
Industry variables — 0.0215
Gap 20.1456 20.1420
Unobserved Prices 0.0269 0.0143
Sum Gender-specific 20.2211 20.2664
Sum wage structure 0.0688 0.1140
Total (D88 2 D79) 20.1522 0.1522
a
Based on PSID data.
Source: Blau and Kahn (1997).
The change in the differential (D88 2 D79) is the change in the male 2 female log wage differential between
1979 and 1988. The components of the decomposition are defined as follows:
Observed X’s Effect 5 (DX1 2 DX0)B1
Observed Prices Effect 5 DX0(B1 2 B0)
Gap Effect 5 (Du1 2 Du0)s1
Unobserved Prices Effect 5 Du0(s1 2 s0)
where the subscripts 1 and 0 refer to 1979 and 1988, X is a vector of explanatory variables, B is a vector of
estimated coefficients from a male wage equation for the indicated year, u is a standardized residual, s is the
residual standard deviation of male wages, and a D prefix denotes the average male 2 female difference in the
variable immediately following.
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F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
for major occupation, industry and union status.13
The overall trends in the gender ratio
during this period are summarized in Fig. 1. As may be seen in the table, the pay gap in log
points narrowed by 0.1522. Under the “observed X’s” heading, the row for “all X’s”
indicates that women’s improved levels of the explanatory variables were sufficient to
account for nearly half (.0755/.1522) of the convergence in the human capital specification
and 82 percent (.1244/.1522) in the full specification.
Disaggregating by type of variable, we find that, in the human capital specification,
women’s rising relative experience levels accounted for the bulk (84 percent) of the all X’s
effect and 42 percent of the convergence in the gender gap.14
Over this period, the gender
gap in full-time experience fell from 7.5 to 4.6 years. When industry, occupation and union
status are added to the model, we find that women’s higher relative experience levels
continue to account for a substantial share of the all X’s effect (43 percent) and of the
reduction of the gap (35 percent). A comparison of the results for experience in the two
columns of Table 3 indicates that the overwhelming proportion of the impact of the increase
in women’s relative experience (83 percent) was due to its direct effect on relative earnings,
controlling for industry, occupation and unionism; the remainder was due to its indirect
effect in causing an upgrading in women’s job characteristics.
In terms of the job characteristics themselves, shifts in occupations accounted for 30
percent of the convergence, as the fraction of women employed as professionals and
managers rose by more than for men; the overrepresentation of women in clerical jobs
declined; and the fraction of men employed as laborers or service workers increased while
women’s fell. The changing industrial distribution of male and female workers (including
union status as an industry variable) accounted for only 11 percent of the closing and was
entirely due to the greater decline in unionism among men than women (11.1 vs. 4.2
percentage points).
The observed prices effect is positive in each specification, indicating that the prices of
skills or rents have changed so as to widen the male-female pay gap. That is, male returns
tended to increase for characteristics where men initially had an advantage; the greater
weight placed on these female deficit areas in 1988 worked to raise the gender gap, ceteris
paribus. The total observed prices effect is considerably larger for the full specification
(0.0997) than for the human capital specification (0.0419).
In the human capital specification, the rising male return to experience accounts for most
of the observed prices effect. In previous work, O’Neill and Polachek (1993) and Wellington
(1993) place considerable emphasis on relative increases in measures of women’s experience
in narrowing the pay gap in the 1980s. Our findings suggest that over half (.0353/.0636) of
the closing of the gender differential attributable to the increase in the relative experience
levels of women was required simply to compensate for the greater weight placed on
experience in determining earnings in 1988 than in 1979.
In the full specification, rising returns to experience continue to be important in accounting
for the observed prices effect, as are changes in occupation and industry wage effects which
favored men. A small positive effect was also obtained for the collective bargaining variable.
Thus, these prices appear to have changed to the detriment of low paid workers in general
and women in particular. These unfavorable price changes help to explain why, even though
the distribution of women across occupations, industries and union/nonunion jobs improved
638 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
relative to men’s over the 1980s, the portion of the gender pay gap attributable to these
factors in 1988 prices rose.
The gap and unobserved prices effects result from the decomposition of changes in the
residual into gender-specific and wage structure effects. For example, controlling for human
capital variables, in 1979, women were comparable to men at about the 26th percentile of the
male residual wage distribution, on average. Between 1979 and 1988, the male residual
distribution widened and the residuals of men at the bottom fell relative to the male mean.
Had each woman fared as well as her 1979 male comparable (i.e., remained at her 1979
percentile in the male distribution), we estimate that the male-female differential would have
increased by 0.0269 log points (i.e., the unobserved prices effect). However, as may be seen
in the table, women in fact advanced up the male residual distribution to about the 35th
percentile, on average. This upward movement, evaluated using the 1988 distribution,
decreased the gender differential by 0.1456 log points (i.e., the gap effect) and was more than
sufficient to offset the adverse impact of changes in unmeasured prices. On net, the ceteris
paribus gender differential controlling for race, education and experience was reduced by
0.1187 log points.
In the full specification, the unobserved prices effect is again positive, working to raise the
ceteris paribus gender differential by 0.0143 log points, while the gap effect was negative
and considerably larger, working to reduce the ceteris paribus gender differential by 0.1420
log points. On net, this resulted in a decrease of 0.1277 log points in the ceteris paribus
gender differential within industries and occupations.
By comparing the relative magnitude of the gender specific component (observed X’s plus
gap effects) and the wage structure component (observed prices plus unobserved prices
effects), we arrive at an overall answer as to the impact of the changing wage structure on
the gender pay gap. The gender-specific effects imply a reduction of the pay gap of 0.22 to
0.26 log points, while the widening wage distribution implies an increase of the pay gap of
0.07 to 0.11 log points. Thus, under the assumption that price changes affected men and
women equally, rising inequality reclaimed about one-third to two-fifths of the gains women
would have made had these price changes not occurred (i.e., the sum of the wage structure
effects divided by the sum of the gender-specific effects). The results indicate that women
benefited from a substantial decline in the “unexplained” portion of the gender gap over the
1980s, particularly when the adverse effects of widening residual inequality are netted out.
This reduction in the unexplained gap may reflect improvements in women’s unmeasured
characteristics or reductions in discrimination against them. Both explanations are credible
for this period. Since women improved the relative level of their measured characteristics, it
is plausible that they also enhanced the relative level of their unmeasured characteristics.
Further, as women increased their commitment to the labor market and their other job skills,
it is possible that the rationale for statistical discrimination against them diminished. More-
over, while government efforts to enforce the anti-discrimination laws appear to have been
reduced during the 1980s (Leonard, 1989), it is possible that women’s relative wage gains
indirectly reflect the impact of government enforcement efforts in earlier years which had the
effect of encouraging women to train for and enter traditionally male fields.
Another insight that may be derived from a focus on wage structure relates to the
possibility that shifts in skill prices may have impacted men and women differently, since
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F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
men and women appear to be viewed by employers as imperfect substitutes in the labor
market. This is suggested by the considerable differences in the occupations and industries
in which they work, as well as the substantial pay differences that exist for men and women
with the same measured characteristics (e.g., Blau, Ferber, and Winkler, 1998). Thus, while
rising skill prices may be expected to widen the gender pay gap, such changes need not affect
men and women in precisely the same way. We examined this issue in Blau and Kahn (1997)
and found that, over the 1980s, shifts in demand for output across industry-occupation cells
favored women over men for low and medium skilled workers, but men over women among
high skilled workers. The growth in the supply of women was also considerably larger at
high skill levels.
Such a “gender twist” in the supply relative to demand for skill may have affected the
relative gains of women within skill groups. We find evidence that this is indeed the case.
While the unadjusted pay gap closed slightly faster for high skill women over the 1980s,
industry and union representation effects strongly favored women at the bottom and middle
of the skill distribution relative to those at the top. High skill women nonetheless advanced
at a roughly similar pace as the other groups due to the large improvement in their human
capital characteristics and occupational distribution. An additional factor was that the gains
for low skilled women would have been greater had the minimum wage not declined in real
value over this period. Nonetheless, the progress of high skill women is particularly
impressive given the relatively unfavorable demand and supply shifts they faced.
5. Conclusion
As wage inequality has been increasing in recent years in many of the industrialized
countries, labor economists have increasingly turned their attention to understanding the
determinants of the extent of inequality and the reasons for changes over time. In this paper
we have specifically highlighted the role of wage structure in determining the size of the
gender pay gap both across countries and within the United States, where wage inequality is
especially large. In addition to bringing a useful new construct to bear on analyses of
male-female pay gaps, such a focus serves to integrate analyses of demographic differentials
into the study of wage structure in general.
The analysis of the trends in the pay gap in the U.S. provides an interesting comparison
to our consideration of international differences in the gender gap. With respect to the puzzle
of the relatively large pay gap in the U.S. compared to other countries, wage structure seems
to provide the whole story while the traditional gender-specific factors do not appear to play
a role in explaining the higher U.S. gap. In contrast, with respect to the narrowing of the
gender gap over time in the U.S., the traditional gender specific factors, i.e., improvements
in women’s qualifications relative to men and declines in labor market discrimination as
conventionally measured, are an extremely important part of the story. The insight which
wage structure contributes is nonetheless also important; that is, the notion that women were
indeed swimming against the tide. In the absence of substantial improvements in the
gender-specific factors, the pay gap between men and women would have widened not
narrowed. A comparison of these findings also serves to illustrate the more general point that
640 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
the relative importance of gender-specific factors vs. wage structure in any particular
situation is an empirical question. With hindsight, it is perhaps not surprising that wage
structure proved to be more significant in the international comparison than in the intertem-
poral one. Differences across countries in wage inequality, particularly between the U.S. and
other industrialized nations, are of considerably greater magnitude than the changes in the
level of inequality in the U.S. over time, as substantial as those changes have been.
The points made here about the potential importance of wage structure for the gender pay
gap can readily be expanded to encompass the relative wages of other demographic groups,
such as racial and ethnic minorities or immigrants, which have below average skills and/or
face discrimination in the labor market. This implies that the well-being of particular
demographic groups depends not only on group-specific factors like relative qualifications
and the extent of discrimination against them, but also on the market factors and institutional
arrangements which determine the return to skills in general and the relative rewards to
employment in particular sectors of the economy. This insight has a number of policy
implications.
First, in evaluating the effectiveness of policies designed to impact economic outcomes of
specific groups, it is important to net out the effects of wage structure. On the one hand,
policies may be erroneously deemed ineffective, or their impact may be underestimated,
because their positive effects are disguised by adverse shifts in wage structure. So, for
example, cross-national comparisons of the gender gap could lead one to conclude that
gender-specific policies in the U.S. have been relatively ineffective in comparison to those
in other countries. Our work implies that, on the contrary, U.S. gender specific policies have
been quite successful. Without them, U.S. women would have lagged behind those in other
countries far more. On the other hand, gender-specific policies could be incorrectly judged
successful, or the extent of their success exaggerated, if they happen to be accompanied by
favorable changes in wage structure which benefit women as a group.
Similarly, another implication that follows from our work is that outcomes for particular
groups are affected not only by specifically targeted policies, but also by wage structure in
general. This means that policies designed to alter wage structure, such as the promotion of
more centralized wage determination or the establishment of relatively high minimum
wages, constitute an alternative approach to improving wage outcomes for women and other
disadvantaged groups. It is important to bear in mind, however, that these policies may also
have costs which need to be balanced against their benefits.
First, although the evidence is mixed, there is the concern that minimum wages, partic-
ularly if set very high, may create unemployment.15
Second, centralized wage setting may
allow firms too little flexibility to respond to differences in market conditions across
industries or at the local level. Moreover, the compression of wage premia for skills may
dampen workers incentives to acquire appropriate training.16
Finally, overly ambitious
attempts to regulate the labor market may result in the growth of an uncovered sector, as
appears to be the case, for example, in Italy.
The substantial potential costs to direct government intervention in wage setting suggest
caution in using this approach to attack gender (or other demographic) differentials. An
additional issue is that developments in the 1980s and 1990s have led to the decentralization
of bargaining in several industrialized countries, including the U.S., Italy, Germany, Sweden,
641
F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
Australia and Britain (see Katz, 1993; Edin and Holmlund, 1995; and Edin and Topel, 1997).
As the protection of centralized wage structures falls away, women and other groups, who
continue to have less human capital on average and who encounter labor market discrimi-
nation, are left exposed to downward pressures on their relative wages. Thus, the funda-
mental answer to such pay differentials, including the gender pay gap, may well lie with
specific policies designed to increase the human capital of such groups and reduce discrim-
ination against them. In a way, this conclusion is not entirely surprising in that it is
differences in qualifications and treatment that constitute the basic cause of lower labor
market outcomes for them. Moreover, if there were no such differences, members of these
groups would not be differently affected by the overall wage structure and by changes in it.
Acknowledgments
We are indebted to Marianne Ferber and Julie Nelson for helpful comments and sugges-
tions.
Notes
1. Work on gender is described below. Wage structure has also been found to play a role
in U.S. trends in black-white and immigrant-native wage differentials (Juhn, Murphy,
and Pierce 1991, LaLonde and Topel, 1992).
2. While race was also controlled for in the wage regressions upon which this analysis
was based, its effects were never large since the percent white is very similar for men
and for women.
3. For summaries of this literature, see, for example, Gunderson (1989); Blau and Ferber
(1987); Blau (1984); Altonji and Blank (forthcoming).
4. Wages are equal to average hourly earnings.
5. That is, for each country j, we estimate a male wage equation:
Yim 5 Ximbm 1 eim (1)
where i refers to individuals and Yi is the log of wages; Xi is a vector of explanatory
variables including education, experience and its square, and major industry and
occupation, b is a vector of coefficients and ei is a residual. The adjusted wage ratio
is:
Ra 5 exp {2(em 2 ef)} § exp (ef) § (Xfbf)/(Xfbm) (2)
where em and ef are the mean residuals from the male wage regression for men (m)
and women (f), Xf is a vector of means of the explanatory variables for women, and
bm and bf are vectors of estimated coefficients from wage regressions estimated for
men and women separately.
6. The expected impact of family leave (disproportionately taken by women even when
it is available to men) is unclear a priori. On the one hand, it is possible that such
642 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
policies raise the relative earnings of women by encouraging the preservation of their
ties to particular firms and hence increasing the incentives of employers and women
to invest in firm-specific training. On the other hand, the existence of such policies
could increase the incidence and/or duration of temporary labor force withdrawals
among women, raising the gender gap. Further, the incremental costs associated with
mandated leave policies may increase the incentives of employers to discriminate
against women.
7. Similarly, across our full sample of countries, male and female wage and residual
wage variation are highly correlated (Blau and Kahn, 1995; 1996).
8. We assign each woman in country j a percentile ranking in country j’s male wage
distribution. The female mean of these percentiles by country is presented in Table 1
as the “female percentile.”
9. We find the percentile ranking of each woman’s wage residual from the male wage
regression (eif) in the distribution of male wage residuals from the male wage
regression (eim). The mean female percentile for each country is presented in Table
1 as the “female residual percentile.”
10. The measure of labor market experience in Sweden does not include time on leave.
11. This is not surprising given Edin and Zetterberg’s (1992) finding that interindustry
wage differentials are much smaller in Sweden than in the U.S.
12. Most of the reduction in the gender pay gap was achieved in the 1980s, with only
moderate reductions since then (Blau, Ferber, and Winkler, 1998; Blau 1998).
13. Both specifications also control for race.
14. O’Neill and Polachek (1993) and Wellington (1993) also find that rising relative
experience levels among women were an important cause of the reduction of the
gender pay gap in the 1980s.
15. For example, Katz, Loveman, and Blanchflower (1995) report that in France, where
the minimum wage increased from 45.7 to 53.3 percent of median earnings from 1967
to 1987, the problem of youth unemployment has been more severe and the duration
of unemployment has tended to be longer than in other OECD countries. In addition,
Edin and Topel (1997) find that the solidarity wage policy followed in Sweden in the
1960s and 1970s disproportionately raised pay and lowered relative employment in
low wage industries; and Kahn (1998a) finds that Norway’s re-centralization of
bargaining structure in the late 1980s compressed the wage distribution but reduced
the relative employment of low-skill workers. Similarly, using microdata on fifteen
OECD countries, Kahn (1998b) finds that union-imposed higher relative pay results
in lower relative employment probabilities for the less-skilled overall. On the other
hand, Card, Kramarz, and Lemieux (1995) find no evidence of adverse employment
effects for the low-skilled resulting from France’s relatively high administered wage
floors compared to the more flexible wage determination in the U.S. and Canada. And
Krueger and Pischke (1997) reach a similar conclusion in a comparison of the U.S.
and Germany. Further, there is evidence for the U.S. that suggests that relatively small
increases in the minimum wage do not have adverse employment effects. See Card
and Krueger (1995); for responses to their research see, ILRR (1995); see also
Neumark and Wascher (1992).
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F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
16. Both complaints have been voiced about Sweden’s “solidarity” wage policy by
employers, and that country’s generous student stipends and subsidized loans for
higher education may be viewed in part as a means of off-setting the distortions
caused by wage compression (Edin and Holmlund 1995).
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Analyzing The Gender Pay Gap

  • 1. Analyzing the gender pay gap Francine D. Blau,* Lawrence M. Kahn New York State School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University, 265 Ives Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-3901, USA Abstract Empirical research on gender pay gaps has traditionally focused on the role of gender-specific factors, particularly gender differences in qualifications and differences in the treatment of otherwise equally qualified male and female workers (i.e., labor market discrimination). This paper explores the determinants of the gender pay gap and argues for the importance of an additional factor, wage structure, the array of prices set for labor market skills and the rewards received for employment in favored sectors. Drawing on our previous work we illustrate the impact of wage structure by presenting empirical results analyzing its effect on international differences in the gender gap and trends over time in the gender differential in the U.S. © 1999 Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. All rights reserved. Keywords: Gender pay gap; Wage structure 1. Introduction The gender pay gap has traditionally been a central focus of economists concerned with the economics of gender. This is because the wage is of fundamental importance as a major determinant of economic welfare for employed individuals, as well as of the potential gain to market employment for those not currently employed. Further it serves as a significant input into a multitude of decisions ranging from labor supply to marriage and fertility, as well as a factor influencing bargaining power and relative status within the family. Research on the sources of the gender pay gap has traditionally focused on the role of what might be termed, “gender-specific” factors, particularly gender differences in qualifications * Corresponding author. Tel.: 11-607-255-4381; fax: 11-607-255-4496. E-mail address: FDB4@Cornell.EDU (F.D. Blau) The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646 1062-9769/99/$ – see front matter © 1999 Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. All rights reserved. PII: S1062-9769(99)00021-6
  • 2. and differences in the treatment of otherwise equally qualified male and female workers (i.e., labor market discrimination). Following Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1991) and Katz and Murphy (1992), an innovative feature of recent research on gender and race differentials has been to treat the analysis of demographic differentials and the study of wage structure in an integrated fashion.1 Wage structure describes the array of prices set for various labor market skills (measured and unmeasured) and rents received for employment in particular sectors of the economy. Wage structure is potentially of considerable importance in determining the relative earnings of groups like women who tend on average to have lower skills or to be located in lower paying sectors of the economy. In this paper, we first consider the determinants of gender differentials, highlighting the role of wage structure. We then illustrate the impact of wage structure by summarizing some of our recent work on international differences in male-female wage differentials (Blau and Kahn, 1992, 1995, 1996b), and on trends over time in gender differentials in the U.S. (Blau and Kahn, 1994, 1997). We then offer some concluding thoughts and suggest some implications for public policy. 2. Determinants of the gender pay gap: gender specific factors Economists’ efforts to understand the gender pay gap have traditionally rested on two pillars: the human capital explanation and models of labor market discrimination. These are gender specific explanations in that they focus on gender differences in qualifications or treatment as the cause of the pay gap. Human capital explanations developed by Mincer and Polachek (1974), Polachek (1981) and others explain gender differences in economic outcomes on the basis of productivity differences between the sexes resulting from the traditional division of labor within the family. They suggest that, as a consequence of their role within the family, women anticipate shorter and more discontinuous work lives and hence have less incentive to invest in market-oriented formal education and on-the-job training than men. This lowers their earnings relative to men’s. Similar considerations are expected to produce gender differences in occupations, as women choose jobs where such investments are less important and where the wage penalties for work force interruptions are smaller. In the absence of parental leave policies, women will especially avoid jobs requiring large investments in firm-specific skills because the returns to such investments are reaped only as long as one remains with the firm. Since the costs of firm-specific training are shared by employers and employees, employers are also expected to be reluctant to hire women for these jobs due to their shorter expected tenure. The difficulty of distinguishing more career-oriented women from less career- oriented women means that the former may be the victims of “statistical discrimination” based on average gender differences in attachment to the firm and the labor market (see below). Thus, the human capital model provides a logically consistent explanation for gender differences in labor market outcomes based on the traditional division of labor in the family. Not only will women earn less, but they will tend to be located in different occupations. Gender differences in industrial distribution could also occur if industries vary in their skill 626 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 3. requirements. Thus the human capital model provides a rationale for the pay gap based on the voluntary decisions of women and men. Working in a similar direction is Becker’s (1985) model in which the longer hours women spend on housework lower the effort they put into their market jobs compared to men’s and hence reduce their wages. To the extent that gender differences in outcomes are not fully accounted for by human capital and other supply-side considerations, models of labor market discrimination offer an explanation. Theoretical work on discrimination was initiated by Becker’s (1957) examina- tion of race discrimination. Becker conceptualized discrimination as a taste or personal prejudice against members of a particular group. Models of statistical discrimination were later developed, in part to explain the persistence of discrimination in the long run in the face of competitive labor markets (e.g., Aigner and Cain, 1977; and Lundberg and Startz, 1983). Such models assume a world of uncertainty and imperfect information and focus on differences between groups in the expected productivity or in the reliability with which productivity may be predicted. Another aspect of interest is the relationship between occupational segregation and a discriminatory wage gap formulated in Bergmann’s (1974) overcrowding model. She argues that discriminatory exclusion of women from “male” jobs results in an excess supply of labor in “female” occupations, depressing wages there for otherwise equally productive workers. These two broad sets of explanations, gender differences in qualifications and labor market discrimination against otherwise similar men and women, do not necessarily consti- tute mutually exclusive sources of gender wage differentials. Both may play a role and empirical studies based on cross-sectional data within countries provide considerable em- pirical support for each. Typical findings from these types of studies are illustrated in Fig. 1 drawn from Blau and Kahn (1997) based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). As may be seen in the figure, the gender ratio in the U.S. rose from 62.2 to 72.4 percent over the 1980’s. (Reasons for these trends are considered below.) The gender ratio adjusted for human capital characteristics (i.e., formal education and actual labor market experience)—71.5 in 1979 and 80.5 in 1988—is larger than the unadjusted ratio, but still considerably smaller than parity between male and female earnings. If, in addition, we adjust for industry, occupation, and unionization, the gender ratio is increased still further but, even then, a non-negligible gap of 12 percent remains, down from 22 percent in 1979. Moreover, the inclusion of the latter set of variables may be questioned in that, as discussed below, employers may affect these characteristics through hiring and other employment decisions. The portion of the gender differential explained by measured factors was not found to change greatly over the same period in the human capital specification. Women’s lower levels of human capital (primarily full-time experience) accounted for roughly one-third of the pay gap in 1988 compared to 29.4 percent in 1979.2 When industry, occupation and union status are added to the model, the explained portion of the pay gap rises more substantially from 46.6 percent in 1979 to 61.0 percent in 1988. In each year, women were likely to be in lower paying industries and occupations, and less likely to be covered by collective bargaining than men, even controlling for education and actual labor market experience. These gender differences in unionism, occupation and industry accounted for 17.2 percent of the pay gap in 1979, rising to 28.1 percent in 1988. Although studies of this type suggest both qualifications and discrimination play a role in 627 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 4. determining the gender pay gap,3 such findings are not without their limitations. One problem is that evidence for discrimination relies on the existence of a residual gender pay gap which cannot be explained by gender differences in measured qualifications. This accords well with the definition of labor market discrimination, i.e., pay differences between groups that are not explained by productivity differences, but may also reflect group differences in unmeasured qualifications or compensating differentials. If men are more highly endowed with respect to these omitted variables, then we would overestimate discrimination. Alternatively, if some of the factors controlled for (e.g., occupation, industry and unionism as included in the “full” specification above) themselves reflect the impact of discrimination, then discrimination will be underestimated. Another challenge to empirically decomposing the gender pay gap into its constituent parts is the existence of feedback effects. The traditional division of labor in the family is likely to influence women’s market outcomes through its effects on their acquisition of human capital and on rationales for employer discrimination against them. But it is also the case that, by lowering the market rewards to women’s human capital investments and labor force attachment, discrimination may reinforce the traditional division of labor in the family (e.g., Blau, 1984; Blau, Ferber and Winkler, 1998; Weiss and Gronau, 1981; Lundberg and Startz, 1983). Thus, even small initial discriminatory differences in wages may cumulate to Fig. 1 Unadjusted and adjusted female-male wage ratios, U.S. 1979–88 628 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 5. large ones as men and women make human capital investment and time allocation decisions on the basis of them. Additional evidence of discrimination comes from three recent studies which take a different approach to the question than most previous research. Wood, Corcoran, and Courant (1993) focused on an especially homogeneous group, graduates of the University of Michigan Law School classes of 1972–1975, 15 years after graduation. Moreover, this study employed extensive controls for qualifications, including grades while in law school and detailed work histories. The gap in pay between women and men was found to be relatively small at the outset of their careers, but 15 years later, women graduates earned only 60 percent as much as men. Some of this difference reflected choices which workers themselves had made, including the propensity of women lawyers to work shorter hours. But even controlling for this factor as well as a detailed list of worker qualifications, women were found to earn 20 percent less than men. The second study, Neumark (1996), analyzed the results of a hiring “audit” in which male and female job seekers were given similar résumés and sent to apply for a job at the same set of firms, in 65 Philadelphia restaurants. Matched pairs of men and women applied for jobs as waiters and waitresses. The results provided statistically significant evidence of discrim- ination against women in high-priced restaurants where earnings of workers are generally higher than in the other establishments. In these restaurants, a female applicant’s probability of getting an interview was 40 percentage points lower than a male’s and her probability of getting an offer was 50 percentage points lower. Finally, the third study, Goldin and Rouse (1997), examined the impact of the adoption of “blind” auditions on the representation of women in symphony orchestras. In blind auditions a screen is used to conceal the identity of the candidate from the jury. Female musicians in the top five symphony orchestras in the United States were less than 5% of all players in 1970 but are 25% today. Using data from actual auditions Goldin and Rouse found that the screen substantially increases the probability that a woman will be advanced out of preliminary rounds of auditions, and the likelihood a female contestant will be the winner in the final round. They found that the switch to blind auditions can explain between 25% and 46% of the increase in the percentage female in orchestras since 1970. 3. Determinants of the gender pay gap: the role of wage structure Although a clear determination of the impact of qualifications vs. discrimination on the gender pay gap is difficult for both empirical and conceptual reasons, both explanations share a common focus of being gender specific in nature. Analyses of trends over time in the gender differential within countries as well as intercountry comparisons of gender earnings ratios have traditionally tended to emphasize these types of gender-specific factors. However, the last 15 to 20 years have been a time of ferment in labor markets with rapid changes in skill differentials and wage inequality in much of the industrialized world. Nowhere have these changes been more dramatic than in the U.S. It has thus been a natural extension of the study of these types of realignments to examine their consequences for various demographic 629 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 6. groups. Moreover, upon further reflection it is clear that the traditional gender-specific factors imply an important role for wage structure. The human capital model suggests that men and women tend to have different levels of labor market qualifications (especially work experience) and to be employed in different occupations and perhaps in different industries. Discrimination models too suggest that women may be segregated in different sectors of the labor market. This implies that the returns to skills and the size of premia for employment in particular sectors potentially play an important role in determining the pay gap. All else equal, the larger the returns to skills and the larger the rents received by individuals in favored sectors, the larger will be the gender gap. Similarly, labor market discrimination and/or actual female deficits in unmea- sured skills result in employers treating women as if they have lower unmeasured as well as measured skills. Thus, the higher the rewards to unmeasured skills, the larger will be the gender gap, after controlling for measured characteristics. The notion of a “high” or a “low” return is intrinsically a relative concept. Thus, the framework provided by wage structure requires some frame of reference and is particularly useful in analyzing changes over time in gender differentials or differences across countries in gender gaps. Such intertemporal and cross-country comparisons enable us to measure the effects of wage structure comparatively with reference to the situation that existed at an earlier point in time or that prevails in another country. Wage structure itself is determined by a variety of factors, including relative supplies of labor of various skill levels, technology, the composition of demand, and wage-setting institutions. In recent years, there has been an increase in wage inequality within most of the industrialized countries (Gottschalk and Joyce, 1995). Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1993), in their work on the U.S. trend, make a strong case that it reflects a rising return to skills, both measured and unmeasured. We do not have full consensus regarding the reasons for this increase in the return to skill, but technological change and the impact of international trade are two of the chief candidates in the United States (e.g., Katz and Murphy, 1992, Bound and Johnson, 1992, Borjas and Ramey, 1995). In addition, institutional factors, including declin- ing union density and a falling real value of the minimum wage, appear to have also contributed to rising inequality (Freeman, 1993; Card, 1996; DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux, 1996). With respect to international comparisons, we have emphasized in our previous work that systems of centrally-determined pay are likely to entail less wage inequality and smaller gender wage differentials for a number of reasons. First, in the U.S., a significant portion of the male-female pay gap has been found to be associated with interindustry or interfirm wage differentials (Blau, 1977; Johnson and Solon, 1986; Sorensen, 1990; Groshen, 1991). This relatively large pay variation is to some extent an outgrowth of our relatively decentralized pay-setting institutions, while centralized systems which reduce the extent of wage variation across industries and firms are likely to lower the gender differential, all else equal. Second, since in all countries the female wage distribution lies below the male distribution, central- ized systems that substantially raise minimum pay levels regardless of gender will also tend to lower male-female wage differentials. In Blau and Kahn (1996a), we find considerable evidence consistent with the view that, compared to the U.S., the more centralized wage setting institutions of other industrialized countries not only reduce overall wage inequality, 630 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 7. but that this reduction is primarily due to greater compression at the bottom of the wage distribution rather than at the top. This tendency to bring up the bottom of the wage distribution from which women disproportionately benefit in turn reflects not only the impact of conscious government and union policies in some countries, but, more generally, cen- tralized wage-setting institutions in both the union and nonunion sector which lead to greater wage compression within each sector compared to the U.S. Of particular interest is the greater prevalence in other countries of contract extension as well as informal mechanisms which extend union-determined wages (and thus the more compressed union wage structure) to the nonunion sector. 4. International differences in the gender gap: a U.S.-Sweden comparison Our work on international differences in the gender gap addresses a puzzle. While the relative qualifications of American women are high compared to women in other countries and the U.S. has had a longer and often stronger commitment to anti-discrimination laws than most other economically advanced nations, the U.S. has traditionally been among the countries with the largest gender gaps. Our results based on comparisons of the U.S. to nine other industrialized nations (Blau and Kahn, 1995, 1996b) suggests that the resolution of this paradox lies in the enormous importance of overall wage structure. That is, the gender gap in the U.S. is relatively high, not because of the traditional gender-specific factors but rather due to the relatively large penalty that the U.S. wage structure imposes on groups that have below average skills (measured and unmeasured) or are located in less favored sectors. We find that the U.S. gap would be similar to that in countries like Sweden and Australia (which have the smallest differentials) if the U.S. had their level of wage inequality. We illustrate the role of wage structure in influencing international differences in the gender pay gap in more detail by presenting some of our findings for the U.S.-Sweden comparison (Blau and Kahn, 1996b). This comparison is of interest because Sweden has one of the highest gender ratios of the economically advanced countries, and the U.S. has one of the lowest. This was particularly the case for the year from which we draw our data, 1984; the gender gap has narrowed in the U.S. since then. An additional reason why our results for these two countries are especially interesting is that our data sources, the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) for the U.S. and the Household Market and Nonmarket Activities Survey (HUS) for Sweden, contain information on actual labor market experience and thus permit us to control for this important variable in our wage regressions and corresponding decompositions. 3.1. U.S.-Sweden differences in the gender gap The extent of the U.S.-Sweden difference in gender ratios may be seen in Table 1 which shows unadjusted and adjusted gender log wage ratios for each country in 1984.4 The unadjusted ratio of 66.9 percent for the U.S. was nearly 16 percentage points lower than the 82.7 percent for Sweden—a considerable difference. Swedish women also fare better after adjusting for all measured variables, including education and experience, as well as major 631 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 8. industry and occupation: the adjusted wage ratio5 was 82.2 percent for the U.S. and 90.9 percent for Sweden. Thus, while adjusting for measured characteristics raises the ratio in each country and reduces the gap between the two countries, a substantial differential in gender ratios of almost 9 percentage points remains. Interpreting these findings in terms of the conventional gender-specific explanations would lead us to view the smaller unexplained gender gap in Sweden as indicating that, compared to U.S. women, Swedish women encounter less discrimination or have more favorable levels of unmeasured characteristics compared to men or both. The reduction in the U.S.-Sweden difference in the gender gap when controls are added for measured character- istics would imply that Swedish women, on net, also have more favorable levels of measured characteristics compared to their male counterparts than do U.S. women. These conclusions make intuitive sense in some respects. With regard to measured characteristics, Sweden’s considerably more generous family leave policy may result in Swedish women being more firmly attached to their employers and to the labor market than U.S. women.6 With respect to discrimination, the results are somewhat surprising in that, as noted above, the U.S. has a considerably longer history of anti-discrimination laws than Sweden. However, it could be that Sweden’s long term commitment to attacking traditional gender roles through a variety of policies is responsible for the smaller unexplained pay gap in Sweden. 3.2. The role of wage structure Despite the apparent reasonableness of the conclusions based on the conventional ap- proach, our examination of the role of wage structure suggests that they are incorrect. It is not differences in women’s qualifications or labor market treatment that are responsible for the larger U.S. gender gap, rather it is differences in overall labor market prices in the two countries. Based on the Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1991) framework described in greater detail below, gender-specific factors, including differences in qualifications and the impact of labor market discrimination, may be regarded as determining the percentile ranking of women in the male wage distribution, while the overall wage structure (as measured by the magnitude of male wage inequality) determines the wage penalty or reward associated with this position in the wage distribution. Table 1 Descriptive statistics: Sweden and the U. S., 1984a USA Sweden Gender log wage differential 0.4019 0.1897 Gender wage ratio (percent) 66.9 82.7 Mean female percentile 29.6 29.9 Male residual standard deviation 0.5110 0.2324 Female residual standard deviationb 0.4862 0.2283 Adjusted wage ratio 82.2 90.9 Mean female residual percentile 36.6 37.4 a Based on HUS data for Sweden and PSID data for the United States. b Calculated from female wage regressions. Source: Blau and Kahn (1996b). 632 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 9. The basic premise here is that a woman and a man who rank the same in the male wage distribution are viewed as comparable in the eyes of employers. Thus, the same set of factors (i.e., the overall wage structure) will determine the relative rewards of women and of such comparable males. The portion of the gender differential associated with women’s lower ranking in the male distribution in country A as compared to country B is ascribed to differences between the two countries in gender-specific factors (i.e., qualifications and treatment), while the portion that is due to the wage penalty associated with that position (i.e., greater wage inequality) in country A than in country B is attributed to wage structure. Some indirect evidence for the assumption that the same factors determine the relative rewards of women and comparable males, is that wage inequality is higher (Blau and Kahn, 1995, 1996b)7 and has been increasing more rapidly (Katz and Murphy, 1992; Blau and Kahn, 1996b) among both men and women in the U.S. than in the other countries. This suggests that the same sets of factors–the prices of measured and unmeasured skills and wage-setting institutions–affect the wages of both men and women in a similar way. It should be noted, however, that the possibility of discrimination complicates this division into gender-specific factors and wage structure because what we have labeled as the impact of wage structure may also include a component which is due to the interaction between wage structure and discrimination. That is, discrimination pushes women down in the distribution of male wages, while wage structure determines how large the penalty is for that lower position in the distribution. Table 1 presents the mean percentile rankings of women in each country’s overall male wage distribution8 and in the male distribution of residuals from the male wage regression.9 Our reasoning suggests that the female percentile rankings may be taken as overall indicators of gender-specific factors. The placement of women in the overall male wage distribution represents the combined effects of gender differences in measured characteristics and treatment (or unmeasured characteristics). The ranking of women in the male residual wage distribution represents the effect of gender differences in treatment (or unmeasured charac- teristics) only since the impact of gender differences in measured characteristics has been controlled for. Looking first at the findings for the unadjusted gender wage difference, we see that, despite the large U.S.-Sweden difference in the unadjusted gender gap, the mean percentile rankings of women in the male wage distribution in Sweden and the U.S. are virtually identical. On average in each country women rank at about the 30th percentile in the male wage distribution. This implies that the large difference in the gender gap between the two countries is entirely due to differences in wage structure, i.e., the larger wage penalty placed on women’s lower position in the male wage distribution in the U.S. This means that at the same mean percentile ranking, the resulting U.S. gender ratio is much lower than in Sweden. As discussed above, the overall mean female percentile rankings in Table 1 show the combined effect of both sets of gender-specific factors: qualifications and labor market discrimination. It would be interesting to compare the U.S. and Sweden with respect to the latter, that is their treatment of otherwise equally qualified men and women. We have seen that the traditional estimate which involves computing adjusted earnings ratios, indicates that Swedish women fare considerably better. At the same time, as also noted above, such estimates are subject to bias; and the adjusted ratios presented in Table 1 are no exception. 633 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 10. On the one hand, we may lack data on some factors which influence wages, although our inclusion of actual labor market experience at least surmounts this particular problem. On the other hand, we control for broadly defined industry and occupation even though these variables may reflect the impact of labor market discrimination. What is primarily of interest here, however, is the contrast between the traditional measure, the adjusted ratio and the female residual percentile. For each country, we place each woman’s residual from the male wage regression into the distribution of male wage residuals (from the male wage regression) and find the female mean of the resulting percentiles. This is an indicator of the relative wages of women in each country after controlling for gender differences in personal characteristics, industry and occupation. Unlike the traditional measure, it is not contaminated by differences in wage structure between the two countries. The caveat of course remains that, as with any analysis of this type, differences in the female rankings may also represent cross-country differences in the unmeasured characteristics of women relative to men. Indeed, in the absence of discrimination, one way to think of the rewards (penalties) associated with a higher (lower) position in the residual wage distribution would be as a return to unmeasured skills or characteristics. We again find that while there are sizable U.S.-Sweden differences in the adjusted gender ratios, the mean percentile rankings of women in the residual wage distribution are virtually identical: after controlling for personal characteristics, industry and occupation, women in each country rank at about the 37th percentile, on average. This implies that the observed differences in the adjusted gender ratios in Table 1 are entirely due to differences in wage structure between the two countries, i.e., the larger wage penalty placed on women’s lower position in the male residual wage distribution in the U.S. Putting this somewhat differently, the extent of labor market discrimination against women (or unmeasured productivity differences between men and women) appears to be no greater in the U.S. than in Sweden. A more detailed decomposition of the Swedish-U.S. difference in the gender wage gap may be obtained using a decomposition method developed by Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce (1991) to examine within-country trends in demographic differentials. We have adapted this technique to decompose international differences in gender pay gaps into a portion due to gender-specific factors and a portion due to differences in wage structure. The results of this decomposition are shown in Table 2. The notes to the Table and Blau and Kahn (1996b) provide the technical details. Here we briefly summarize the interpretation of the compo- nents. The “observed X’s effect” gives the contribution of inter-country differences in observed labor market qualifications of men and women (X) to the gender gap. For example, the pay gap in one country may be less than in another owing to women’s higher relative levels of education. The “observed prices effect” reflects the impact of different measured prices across countries for observed labor market qualifications. For example, for a given (positive) male-female difference in schooling, a higher return to education will raise the male-female pay gap. The “gap effect” measures the effect of international differences in the relative wage positions of men and women after controlling for measured characteristics (i.e., whether women rank higher or lower within the male residual wage distribution). That is, it gives the contribution to the international difference in the gender gap that would result if the two 634 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 11. countries had the same levels of residual male wage inequality and differed only in their percentile rankings of the female wage residuals. In one country, for instance, the average woman’s wage residual may be at the 35th percentile of the male distribution, while in another country, it may be at only the 25th percentile. As discussed above, this percentile ranking may reflect gender differences in unmeasured characteristics and/or the impact of labor market discrimination against women. Finally, the “unobserved prices effect” reflects inter-country differences in residual inequality. It measures the contribution to the inter- country difference that would result if two countries had the same percentile rankings of the female wage residuals and differed only in the extent of male residual wage inequality. Suppose, as is likely, that deficits in female unmeasured skills or discrimination lower women’s position in the male distribution of wage residuals. The larger the penalty a country places on this lower position, the larger will be its pay gap. The full impact of gender-specific factors is reflected in the sum of the observed X’s and Table 2 Analysis of the difference in the gender pay gap: Sweden and the U. S., 1984a Component Contribution to the U.S.- Sweden Difference Observed X’s 20.0054 Education variables 0.0226 Experience variables 20.0313 Occupation variables 20.0315 Industry variables 0.0348 Observed prices 20.1058 Education variables 20.0176 Experience variables 20.0162 Occupation variables 20.0031 Industry variables 20.0689 Gap 0.0303 Unobserved prices 20.1313 Sum gender-specific 0.0249 Sum wage structure 20.2371 Total (DSweden 2 DUSA) 20.2122 a Based on HUS data for Sweden and PSID data for the United States. Source: Blau and Kahn (1996b). The difference in the gender pay gap (DS 2 DU) is the difference between the Swedish and the U.S. male 2 female log wage differential. The components of the decomposition are defined as follows: Observed X’s Effect 5 (DXS 2 DXU)BU Observed Prices Effect 5 DXS(BS 2 BU) Gap Effect 5 (DuS 2 DuU)sU Unobserved Prices Effect 5 DuS(sS 2 sU) where the subscripts S and U refer to Sweden and the U.S., X is a vector of explanatory variables, B is a vector of estimated coefficients from a male wage equation for the indicated country, u is a standardized residual, s is the residual standard deviation of male wages, and a D prefix denotes the average male 2 female difference in the variable immediately following. 635 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 12. gap effects; that is the sum of the effect of gender differences in qualifications and of gender differences in wage rankings at a given level of measured characteristics. Labor market structure is reflected in the sum of the observed and unobserved prices effects; that is, the impact of the U.S.-Sweden differences in returns to measured and unmeasured characteris- tics. Within the framework of a traditional decomposition, the sum of the gap and unobserved prices effects represents the impact of differences between the two countries in the “unex- plained” differential which is commonly taken as an estimate of discrimination. The detailed decomposition of the U.S.-Sweden gender log wage shown in Table 2 sheds additional light on the specific factors underlying the general results described above. Our finding that gender differences in observed characteristics do not contribute to the U.S.- Sweden difference in the gender gap reflects offsetting effects. On the one hand, there is a somewhat smaller gender difference in actual experience in Sweden (5 years) than in the U.S. (6 years) and a slightly more favorable relative occupational distribution of Swedish than of U.S. women.10 On the other hand, this is offset by smaller gender differences in the U.S. in educational attainment and industrial distribution. At a common set of prices (or rewards for measured characteristics) for both countries, the gender differences in observed character- istics contribute about the same amount to the male-female pay gap in each country. As we saw in our discussion of Table 1, however, using the conventional approach, differences in characteristics contribute to a larger gender differential in the U.S. than in Sweden. This is because the conventional approach uses own-country prices; that is Swedish prices for Sweden and U.S. prices for the U.S. In general, the prices of skills are higher in the U.S. and this means that the less favorable characteristics of women compared to men are more heavily penalized in the U.S. Breaking this price factor out separately, we find that the impact of differences in observed prices between the U.S. and Sweden strongly favors Swedish women. The Swedish-U.S. difference in relative rewards to employment by industry is the most important factor;11 less favorable (for women) prices of education and experience in the U.S. also play a role. Overall, the effect of wage structure, including the impact of the prices of both measured and unmeasured characteristics, is more than sufficient to account for the considerably larger gender gap in the U.S. 4. Swimming against the tide: trends in the gender gap in the U.S. While these findings on international differences in the gender gap help to resolve one paradox, they generate another. Our analysis implies that, in the face of rising wage inequality, American women have been essentially swimming upstream in a labor market which has been growing increasingly unfavorable for workers with below average skills. In the face of rising rewards to labor market skills and employment in high paying sectors, as appears to have occurred in the U.S. over the last 15 to 20 years, women’s relative qualifications and labor market treatment had to improve for the pay gap to merely remain constant; still larger gains were necessary for the pay gap to be reduced. Yet the gender pay gap has actually fallen in the U.S. since the late 1970s.12 How can we explain this apparent contradiction? 636 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 13. We have examined this issue (Blau and Kahn, 1994, 1997) and found that women, in spite of having to swim against the current during the 1970s and 1980s, were able to narrow the gender gap because gains in gender specific factors were large enough to more than counterbalance the negative effect of the trends in wage structure on their relative earnings. This may be seen in the decomposition of the 1979–1988 trends into gender specific and wage structure components which is shown in Table 3. This decomposition is analogous to that shown in Table 2 for the international differences in the gender gap. Table 3 shows the results of the decomposition for two specifications: a “human capital” specification including controls for education and experience and a “full” specification which additionally controls Table 3 Decomposition of changes in the gender pay gap, 1979–88a Human capital only Human capital plus IND OCC CB Observed X’s All X’s 20.0755 20.1244 Education variables 20.0110 20.0088 Experience variables 20.0636 20.0529 Occupation variables — 20.0458 Collective bargaining — 20.0175 Industry variables — 0.0012 Observed prices All B’s 0.0419 0.0997 Education variables 0.0035 0.0013 Experience variables 0.0353 0.0219 Occupation variables — 0.0441 Collective bargaining — 0.0081 Industry variables — 0.0215 Gap 20.1456 20.1420 Unobserved Prices 0.0269 0.0143 Sum Gender-specific 20.2211 20.2664 Sum wage structure 0.0688 0.1140 Total (D88 2 D79) 20.1522 0.1522 a Based on PSID data. Source: Blau and Kahn (1997). The change in the differential (D88 2 D79) is the change in the male 2 female log wage differential between 1979 and 1988. The components of the decomposition are defined as follows: Observed X’s Effect 5 (DX1 2 DX0)B1 Observed Prices Effect 5 DX0(B1 2 B0) Gap Effect 5 (Du1 2 Du0)s1 Unobserved Prices Effect 5 Du0(s1 2 s0) where the subscripts 1 and 0 refer to 1979 and 1988, X is a vector of explanatory variables, B is a vector of estimated coefficients from a male wage equation for the indicated year, u is a standardized residual, s is the residual standard deviation of male wages, and a D prefix denotes the average male 2 female difference in the variable immediately following. 637 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 14. for major occupation, industry and union status.13 The overall trends in the gender ratio during this period are summarized in Fig. 1. As may be seen in the table, the pay gap in log points narrowed by 0.1522. Under the “observed X’s” heading, the row for “all X’s” indicates that women’s improved levels of the explanatory variables were sufficient to account for nearly half (.0755/.1522) of the convergence in the human capital specification and 82 percent (.1244/.1522) in the full specification. Disaggregating by type of variable, we find that, in the human capital specification, women’s rising relative experience levels accounted for the bulk (84 percent) of the all X’s effect and 42 percent of the convergence in the gender gap.14 Over this period, the gender gap in full-time experience fell from 7.5 to 4.6 years. When industry, occupation and union status are added to the model, we find that women’s higher relative experience levels continue to account for a substantial share of the all X’s effect (43 percent) and of the reduction of the gap (35 percent). A comparison of the results for experience in the two columns of Table 3 indicates that the overwhelming proportion of the impact of the increase in women’s relative experience (83 percent) was due to its direct effect on relative earnings, controlling for industry, occupation and unionism; the remainder was due to its indirect effect in causing an upgrading in women’s job characteristics. In terms of the job characteristics themselves, shifts in occupations accounted for 30 percent of the convergence, as the fraction of women employed as professionals and managers rose by more than for men; the overrepresentation of women in clerical jobs declined; and the fraction of men employed as laborers or service workers increased while women’s fell. The changing industrial distribution of male and female workers (including union status as an industry variable) accounted for only 11 percent of the closing and was entirely due to the greater decline in unionism among men than women (11.1 vs. 4.2 percentage points). The observed prices effect is positive in each specification, indicating that the prices of skills or rents have changed so as to widen the male-female pay gap. That is, male returns tended to increase for characteristics where men initially had an advantage; the greater weight placed on these female deficit areas in 1988 worked to raise the gender gap, ceteris paribus. The total observed prices effect is considerably larger for the full specification (0.0997) than for the human capital specification (0.0419). In the human capital specification, the rising male return to experience accounts for most of the observed prices effect. In previous work, O’Neill and Polachek (1993) and Wellington (1993) place considerable emphasis on relative increases in measures of women’s experience in narrowing the pay gap in the 1980s. Our findings suggest that over half (.0353/.0636) of the closing of the gender differential attributable to the increase in the relative experience levels of women was required simply to compensate for the greater weight placed on experience in determining earnings in 1988 than in 1979. In the full specification, rising returns to experience continue to be important in accounting for the observed prices effect, as are changes in occupation and industry wage effects which favored men. A small positive effect was also obtained for the collective bargaining variable. Thus, these prices appear to have changed to the detriment of low paid workers in general and women in particular. These unfavorable price changes help to explain why, even though the distribution of women across occupations, industries and union/nonunion jobs improved 638 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 15. relative to men’s over the 1980s, the portion of the gender pay gap attributable to these factors in 1988 prices rose. The gap and unobserved prices effects result from the decomposition of changes in the residual into gender-specific and wage structure effects. For example, controlling for human capital variables, in 1979, women were comparable to men at about the 26th percentile of the male residual wage distribution, on average. Between 1979 and 1988, the male residual distribution widened and the residuals of men at the bottom fell relative to the male mean. Had each woman fared as well as her 1979 male comparable (i.e., remained at her 1979 percentile in the male distribution), we estimate that the male-female differential would have increased by 0.0269 log points (i.e., the unobserved prices effect). However, as may be seen in the table, women in fact advanced up the male residual distribution to about the 35th percentile, on average. This upward movement, evaluated using the 1988 distribution, decreased the gender differential by 0.1456 log points (i.e., the gap effect) and was more than sufficient to offset the adverse impact of changes in unmeasured prices. On net, the ceteris paribus gender differential controlling for race, education and experience was reduced by 0.1187 log points. In the full specification, the unobserved prices effect is again positive, working to raise the ceteris paribus gender differential by 0.0143 log points, while the gap effect was negative and considerably larger, working to reduce the ceteris paribus gender differential by 0.1420 log points. On net, this resulted in a decrease of 0.1277 log points in the ceteris paribus gender differential within industries and occupations. By comparing the relative magnitude of the gender specific component (observed X’s plus gap effects) and the wage structure component (observed prices plus unobserved prices effects), we arrive at an overall answer as to the impact of the changing wage structure on the gender pay gap. The gender-specific effects imply a reduction of the pay gap of 0.22 to 0.26 log points, while the widening wage distribution implies an increase of the pay gap of 0.07 to 0.11 log points. Thus, under the assumption that price changes affected men and women equally, rising inequality reclaimed about one-third to two-fifths of the gains women would have made had these price changes not occurred (i.e., the sum of the wage structure effects divided by the sum of the gender-specific effects). The results indicate that women benefited from a substantial decline in the “unexplained” portion of the gender gap over the 1980s, particularly when the adverse effects of widening residual inequality are netted out. This reduction in the unexplained gap may reflect improvements in women’s unmeasured characteristics or reductions in discrimination against them. Both explanations are credible for this period. Since women improved the relative level of their measured characteristics, it is plausible that they also enhanced the relative level of their unmeasured characteristics. Further, as women increased their commitment to the labor market and their other job skills, it is possible that the rationale for statistical discrimination against them diminished. More- over, while government efforts to enforce the anti-discrimination laws appear to have been reduced during the 1980s (Leonard, 1989), it is possible that women’s relative wage gains indirectly reflect the impact of government enforcement efforts in earlier years which had the effect of encouraging women to train for and enter traditionally male fields. Another insight that may be derived from a focus on wage structure relates to the possibility that shifts in skill prices may have impacted men and women differently, since 639 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 16. men and women appear to be viewed by employers as imperfect substitutes in the labor market. This is suggested by the considerable differences in the occupations and industries in which they work, as well as the substantial pay differences that exist for men and women with the same measured characteristics (e.g., Blau, Ferber, and Winkler, 1998). Thus, while rising skill prices may be expected to widen the gender pay gap, such changes need not affect men and women in precisely the same way. We examined this issue in Blau and Kahn (1997) and found that, over the 1980s, shifts in demand for output across industry-occupation cells favored women over men for low and medium skilled workers, but men over women among high skilled workers. The growth in the supply of women was also considerably larger at high skill levels. Such a “gender twist” in the supply relative to demand for skill may have affected the relative gains of women within skill groups. We find evidence that this is indeed the case. While the unadjusted pay gap closed slightly faster for high skill women over the 1980s, industry and union representation effects strongly favored women at the bottom and middle of the skill distribution relative to those at the top. High skill women nonetheless advanced at a roughly similar pace as the other groups due to the large improvement in their human capital characteristics and occupational distribution. An additional factor was that the gains for low skilled women would have been greater had the minimum wage not declined in real value over this period. Nonetheless, the progress of high skill women is particularly impressive given the relatively unfavorable demand and supply shifts they faced. 5. Conclusion As wage inequality has been increasing in recent years in many of the industrialized countries, labor economists have increasingly turned their attention to understanding the determinants of the extent of inequality and the reasons for changes over time. In this paper we have specifically highlighted the role of wage structure in determining the size of the gender pay gap both across countries and within the United States, where wage inequality is especially large. In addition to bringing a useful new construct to bear on analyses of male-female pay gaps, such a focus serves to integrate analyses of demographic differentials into the study of wage structure in general. The analysis of the trends in the pay gap in the U.S. provides an interesting comparison to our consideration of international differences in the gender gap. With respect to the puzzle of the relatively large pay gap in the U.S. compared to other countries, wage structure seems to provide the whole story while the traditional gender-specific factors do not appear to play a role in explaining the higher U.S. gap. In contrast, with respect to the narrowing of the gender gap over time in the U.S., the traditional gender specific factors, i.e., improvements in women’s qualifications relative to men and declines in labor market discrimination as conventionally measured, are an extremely important part of the story. The insight which wage structure contributes is nonetheless also important; that is, the notion that women were indeed swimming against the tide. In the absence of substantial improvements in the gender-specific factors, the pay gap between men and women would have widened not narrowed. A comparison of these findings also serves to illustrate the more general point that 640 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 17. the relative importance of gender-specific factors vs. wage structure in any particular situation is an empirical question. With hindsight, it is perhaps not surprising that wage structure proved to be more significant in the international comparison than in the intertem- poral one. Differences across countries in wage inequality, particularly between the U.S. and other industrialized nations, are of considerably greater magnitude than the changes in the level of inequality in the U.S. over time, as substantial as those changes have been. The points made here about the potential importance of wage structure for the gender pay gap can readily be expanded to encompass the relative wages of other demographic groups, such as racial and ethnic minorities or immigrants, which have below average skills and/or face discrimination in the labor market. This implies that the well-being of particular demographic groups depends not only on group-specific factors like relative qualifications and the extent of discrimination against them, but also on the market factors and institutional arrangements which determine the return to skills in general and the relative rewards to employment in particular sectors of the economy. This insight has a number of policy implications. First, in evaluating the effectiveness of policies designed to impact economic outcomes of specific groups, it is important to net out the effects of wage structure. On the one hand, policies may be erroneously deemed ineffective, or their impact may be underestimated, because their positive effects are disguised by adverse shifts in wage structure. So, for example, cross-national comparisons of the gender gap could lead one to conclude that gender-specific policies in the U.S. have been relatively ineffective in comparison to those in other countries. Our work implies that, on the contrary, U.S. gender specific policies have been quite successful. Without them, U.S. women would have lagged behind those in other countries far more. On the other hand, gender-specific policies could be incorrectly judged successful, or the extent of their success exaggerated, if they happen to be accompanied by favorable changes in wage structure which benefit women as a group. Similarly, another implication that follows from our work is that outcomes for particular groups are affected not only by specifically targeted policies, but also by wage structure in general. This means that policies designed to alter wage structure, such as the promotion of more centralized wage determination or the establishment of relatively high minimum wages, constitute an alternative approach to improving wage outcomes for women and other disadvantaged groups. It is important to bear in mind, however, that these policies may also have costs which need to be balanced against their benefits. First, although the evidence is mixed, there is the concern that minimum wages, partic- ularly if set very high, may create unemployment.15 Second, centralized wage setting may allow firms too little flexibility to respond to differences in market conditions across industries or at the local level. Moreover, the compression of wage premia for skills may dampen workers incentives to acquire appropriate training.16 Finally, overly ambitious attempts to regulate the labor market may result in the growth of an uncovered sector, as appears to be the case, for example, in Italy. The substantial potential costs to direct government intervention in wage setting suggest caution in using this approach to attack gender (or other demographic) differentials. An additional issue is that developments in the 1980s and 1990s have led to the decentralization of bargaining in several industrialized countries, including the U.S., Italy, Germany, Sweden, 641 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 18. Australia and Britain (see Katz, 1993; Edin and Holmlund, 1995; and Edin and Topel, 1997). As the protection of centralized wage structures falls away, women and other groups, who continue to have less human capital on average and who encounter labor market discrimi- nation, are left exposed to downward pressures on their relative wages. Thus, the funda- mental answer to such pay differentials, including the gender pay gap, may well lie with specific policies designed to increase the human capital of such groups and reduce discrim- ination against them. In a way, this conclusion is not entirely surprising in that it is differences in qualifications and treatment that constitute the basic cause of lower labor market outcomes for them. Moreover, if there were no such differences, members of these groups would not be differently affected by the overall wage structure and by changes in it. Acknowledgments We are indebted to Marianne Ferber and Julie Nelson for helpful comments and sugges- tions. Notes 1. Work on gender is described below. Wage structure has also been found to play a role in U.S. trends in black-white and immigrant-native wage differentials (Juhn, Murphy, and Pierce 1991, LaLonde and Topel, 1992). 2. While race was also controlled for in the wage regressions upon which this analysis was based, its effects were never large since the percent white is very similar for men and for women. 3. For summaries of this literature, see, for example, Gunderson (1989); Blau and Ferber (1987); Blau (1984); Altonji and Blank (forthcoming). 4. Wages are equal to average hourly earnings. 5. That is, for each country j, we estimate a male wage equation: Yim 5 Ximbm 1 eim (1) where i refers to individuals and Yi is the log of wages; Xi is a vector of explanatory variables including education, experience and its square, and major industry and occupation, b is a vector of coefficients and ei is a residual. The adjusted wage ratio is: Ra 5 exp {2(em 2 ef)} § exp (ef) § (Xfbf)/(Xfbm) (2) where em and ef are the mean residuals from the male wage regression for men (m) and women (f), Xf is a vector of means of the explanatory variables for women, and bm and bf are vectors of estimated coefficients from wage regressions estimated for men and women separately. 6. The expected impact of family leave (disproportionately taken by women even when it is available to men) is unclear a priori. On the one hand, it is possible that such 642 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
  • 19. policies raise the relative earnings of women by encouraging the preservation of their ties to particular firms and hence increasing the incentives of employers and women to invest in firm-specific training. On the other hand, the existence of such policies could increase the incidence and/or duration of temporary labor force withdrawals among women, raising the gender gap. Further, the incremental costs associated with mandated leave policies may increase the incentives of employers to discriminate against women. 7. Similarly, across our full sample of countries, male and female wage and residual wage variation are highly correlated (Blau and Kahn, 1995; 1996). 8. We assign each woman in country j a percentile ranking in country j’s male wage distribution. The female mean of these percentiles by country is presented in Table 1 as the “female percentile.” 9. We find the percentile ranking of each woman’s wage residual from the male wage regression (eif) in the distribution of male wage residuals from the male wage regression (eim). The mean female percentile for each country is presented in Table 1 as the “female residual percentile.” 10. The measure of labor market experience in Sweden does not include time on leave. 11. This is not surprising given Edin and Zetterberg’s (1992) finding that interindustry wage differentials are much smaller in Sweden than in the U.S. 12. Most of the reduction in the gender pay gap was achieved in the 1980s, with only moderate reductions since then (Blau, Ferber, and Winkler, 1998; Blau 1998). 13. Both specifications also control for race. 14. O’Neill and Polachek (1993) and Wellington (1993) also find that rising relative experience levels among women were an important cause of the reduction of the gender pay gap in the 1980s. 15. For example, Katz, Loveman, and Blanchflower (1995) report that in France, where the minimum wage increased from 45.7 to 53.3 percent of median earnings from 1967 to 1987, the problem of youth unemployment has been more severe and the duration of unemployment has tended to be longer than in other OECD countries. In addition, Edin and Topel (1997) find that the solidarity wage policy followed in Sweden in the 1960s and 1970s disproportionately raised pay and lowered relative employment in low wage industries; and Kahn (1998a) finds that Norway’s re-centralization of bargaining structure in the late 1980s compressed the wage distribution but reduced the relative employment of low-skill workers. Similarly, using microdata on fifteen OECD countries, Kahn (1998b) finds that union-imposed higher relative pay results in lower relative employment probabilities for the less-skilled overall. On the other hand, Card, Kramarz, and Lemieux (1995) find no evidence of adverse employment effects for the low-skilled resulting from France’s relatively high administered wage floors compared to the more flexible wage determination in the U.S. and Canada. And Krueger and Pischke (1997) reach a similar conclusion in a comparison of the U.S. and Germany. Further, there is evidence for the U.S. that suggests that relatively small increases in the minimum wage do not have adverse employment effects. See Card and Krueger (1995); for responses to their research see, ILRR (1995); see also Neumark and Wascher (1992). 643 F.D. Blau, L.M. Kahn / The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 39 (1999) 625–646
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