Workshop K2 - Climate Change and Tourism


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  • Workshop K2 - Climate Change and Tourism

    1. 1. Climate Change and Tourism Paul Peeters (NHTV Centre for Sustainable Tourism and Transport) (Thanks to Dan Scott, University of Waterloo, Canada, for part of the presentation)
    2. 2. Technical Report Commissioned for: 2nd International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism (Davos, Switzerland – 1-4 Oct.) Minister’s Summit on Climate Change and Tourism (London, England – 13 Nov.)
    3. 3. <ul><li>Commissioned by UNWTO, UNEP and WMO </li></ul><ul><li>Reviewed by over 20 experts on tourism and climate (UNWTO, UNEP, WMO, IATA, and others) </li></ul><ul><li>Authors: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dr. Daniel Scott (Lead Author) - University of Waterloo, Canada </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dr. Bas Amelung - University of Maastricht,Netherlands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dr. Susanne Becken - Lincoln University, New Zealand </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dr. Jean-Paul Ceron - Limoges University, France </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ghislain Dubois - TEC Conseil, France </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dr. Stefan Gossling - Lund University, Sweden </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Paul Peeters - Breda University, Netherlands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dr. Murray C. Simpson - University of Oxford, England </li></ul></ul>
    4. 4. <ul><li>‘ The warming of the climate system is unequivocal’ (IPCC-AR4 2007) </li></ul><ul><li>The pace of climate change is ‘very likely’ to increase over the 21 st century (IPCC-AR4 ) 2007) </li></ul><ul><li>Our task now is to ‘Avoid the Unmanageable, and Manage the Unavoidable’ (Schellnhuber 2006) </li></ul>The Climate is Changing … and Only Just Begun
    5. 5. Climate Change Impacts at Tourism Destinations
    6. 6. Regional Knowledge Gaps Tourism Vulnerability ‘Hotspots’
    7. 7. Emissions from Global Tourism: Status & Projections (NHTV CSTT contribution to report)
    8. 8. <ul><li>‘ Global Tourism Emissions Model’ for 2005 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>UNWTO Department of Statistics and Economic Measurement of Tourism prepared a specific database for the project </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Three sub-sectors: transport, accommodation, activities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Includes international and domestic tourism </li></ul></ul><ul><li>‘ Business as Usual’ Scenario for 2035 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Arrivals and LOS trend projections: ‘ Tourism Vision 2020 ’, nation and industry forecasts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy efficiency trend projections: Boeing (2006), EU MuSTT Study (2004) </li></ul></ul>Calculation of Emissions from the Tourism Sector
    9. 9. Global tourism in 2005 <ul><li>Total 4700 million trips of which: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>4000 domestic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>750 international </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>130 interregional (long haul) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Total of 19.7 billion guest-nights </li></ul>
    10. 10. Transportation of Tourists = 75% of Sector Emissions * - does not include non-CO2 emissions and impact on climate Sub-Sectors CO 2 (Mt) Air transport * 522 40% Car transport 418 32% Other transport 39 3% Accommodation 274 21% Activities 52 4% TOTAL 1,307 Total World (IPCC 2007) 26,400 Tourism Contribution 4.95% Global Tourism Emissions in 2005: CO 2 Only
    11. 11. Share global tourism in climate change
    12. 12. * Excluding same-day visitors 40% 32% 21% ‘ Business as Usual’ Projection of Future CO 2 Emissions from Tourism *
    13. 13. Contraction and Conversion EU25 air transport GHG emissions
    14. 14. Mitigation Policies & Measures
    15. 15. <ul><li>High Tech-Efficiency Scenario: (changes versus BAS) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>reduction in aviation energy consumption per pkm of 50% (vs 32% in BAS) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>additional 2%/year reduction in car emissions per pkm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>additional 2%/year reduction in other transport emissions per pkm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>additional 2%/year reduction in accommodation emissions per guest-night </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>additional 2%/year reduction in activities emissions per trip </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Modal Shift-Longer Stay Scenario: (changes versus BAS) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>no further growth in aviation number of trips and pkm [i] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>0.5%/year increase in average LOS vs 0.5% reduction/year in BAS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>growth in rail/coach of 2.4% to 5% per year to keep total number of guest-nights constant with BAS </li></ul></ul><ul><li>[i] The number of pkm is kept constant, using average trip distance as found in BAS, thus also keeping the number of trips by air transport constant. However, it is possible to reach the same emissions reduction with some growth in the number of trips by air when the average distance is reduced (i.e. less long haul and more medium haul). </li></ul>Tourism Mitigation Scenarios for 2035
    16. 16. * Excludes same-day tourists 2035* 2035 Mitigation Scenarios -36% -68% -43% 2005* 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Baseline ‘ Business as Usual‘ Technical Efficiency Modal- Shift/Length of Stay Combined Mt CO2 Future CO 2 Emissions from Global Tourism: Scenarios of Mitigation Potential in 2035
    17. 17. International Tourism trips
    18. 18. International Tourism CO 2 emissions
    19. 19. The long haul travel and poverty issue <ul><li>UNWTO: ‘no simplistic measures against aviation because then the poor will suffer’. </li></ul><ul><li>However: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The great majority of long haul air transport trips is between rich continents. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The long haul trips to Africa cause minor part of emissions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scenario: all international intra-EU trips to Africa double international emissions en adds equivalent of 20% of Dutch economy in revenues to a continent. </li></ul></ul>
    20. 20. Conclusions <ul><li>Climate change is happening now and adaptation is already inevitable and costly </li></ul><ul><li>Tourisms’ contribution to CC between 4-14% and growing by 150%, where 80% reduction is required: mitigation measures inevitable </li></ul><ul><li>Tourism is more than aviation (17%) and international (16%). </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing dependence on air transport risky course </li></ul><ul><li>Pro-poor tourism the wrong argument against measures </li></ul><ul><li>Dan Scott: “Tourism must be willing to lead on climate change or it will be led” </li></ul>