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Event Update | Airlines

                                                                                                                                    June 14, 2010



 SpiceJet                                                                                              ACCUMULATE
                                                                                                        CCUMULATE
                                                                                                       CMP                                     Rs55
 SpiceJet to change face                                                                               Target Price                            Rs65
 Sun TV promoter Kalanithi Maran has announced to buy 37.75% stake in SpiceJet                         Investment Period               12 months
 from the company's promoter Bhupendra Kansagra (Royal Holdings Services) and
                                                                                                       Stock Info
 investor Wilbur Ross at Rs47.3/share, which is at a 16.7% discount to the current
                                                                                                       Sector                                 Airlines
 market price. Currently, the Kansagra family holds nearly 3.11cr shares or 7.7%
 stake in the company post 100% conversion of the FCCBs. Wilbur Ross holds close                       Market Cap (Rs cr)                      1,772
 to 12.5cr shares or 31% stake in the company post 100% conversion of the FCCBs.                       Beta                                       1.2
 Kalanithi Maran will make an open offer at an expected price of Rs58/share for                        52 Week High / Low                      65/16
 additional 20% stake in the company. Prior to the stake sale announcement,
                                                                                                       Avg Daily Volume                      3752239
 Goldman Sachs Securities (3.8% stake) converted close to 1.5cr shares held by
                                                                                                       Face Value (Rs)                             10
 way of warrants and Istithmar World (5.5% stake) converted 100% of its FCCBs
 worth US $12mn to 2.2cr shares, respectively. We maintain an Accumulate rating                        BSE Sensex                             17,338

                     Target Price                                          EPS.
 on the stock with a Target Price of Rs65, valuing the stock at 9x FY2012E EPS.                        Nifty                                   5,198
                                                                                                       Reuters Code                           SPJT.BO
 Exhibit 1: Shareholding Pattern
                                           Pre
                                            re-FCCB
                                           Pre-FCCB and        Post
                                                               Post FCCB and                           Bloomberg Code                        SJET@IN
                                        Warrant Conversion
                                        Warrant               Warrant
                                                              Warrant Conversion   After Stake Sale
                                   No. of        % of      No. of       % of     No. of       % of     Shareholding Pattern (%)
 Shareholders                  Shares (cr) Holding Shares (cr) Holding Shares (cr) Holding
 Ajay Singh                           1.0        4.13        1.0         2.5       1.0          2.5    Promoters                                12.9
 Avanthi Shah                         0.8        3.26        0.8         1.9       0.8          1.9
                                                                                                       MF / Banks / Indian FIs                  45.1
 Ewart Investments Ltd                1.3        5.45        1.3         3.3       1.3          3.3
 IDFC Premier Equity Fund             0.8        3.38        0.8         2.0       0.8          2.0    FII / NRIs / OCBs                        15.7
 Royal Holdings Services Ltd          3.1       12.85        3.1         7.7          -           -
                                                                                                       Indian Public / Others                   26.4
 Sundaram BNP Paribas Mutual Fund     0.7        2.80        0.7         1.7       0.7          1.7
 Vijendra Singh                       0.5        2.12        0.5         1.3       0.5          1.3
 Goldman Sachs                           -          -        1.5         3.8       1.5          3.8    Abs. (%)             3m         1yr       3yr
 Istithmar World PJSC                                        2.2         5.5       2.2          5.5
 WL Ross*                                                   12.5       30.9           -           -    Sensex               1.0     13.8        22.1
 Kalanithi Maran                                                                  15.2        37.7
                                                                                                       SpiceJet            (7.4)   166.4        (2.7)
 Total Equity*                                                                    40.4
 Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:* Estimated

 Exhibit 2: Key Financials
 Y/E March (Rs cr)                 FY2009            FY2010           FY2011E          FY2012E
 Net Sales                           1,689             2,181              2,718            3,287
 % chg                                 30.5              29.1              24.6              20.9
     Profit
 Net Profit                           (353)                61               205               293
 % chg                               164.1           (117.4)              234.2              42.5
 FDEPS (Rs)                          (14.6)               1.5                5.1              7.2
 EBITDA Margin (%)                   (24.8)               1.2                7.0              8.5
 P/E (x)                               (3.8)             21.7              10.9               7.6
 RoE (%)                                   -                 -                  -            50.0
 RoCE (%)                                  -             23.8              68.4              46.4
 P/BV (x)                              (3.1)             (3.9)               5.1              3.0
 EV/Sales (x)                           0.9               0.6                0.6              0.4     Sharan Lillaney
 EV/EBITDA (x)                         (3.6)             50.5                8.8              4.9     +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 338
 Source: Company, Angel Research                                                                      sharan.lillaney@angeltrade.com


Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
SpiceJet | Event Update




                Maran on SpiceJet's Board - Positive impact

                We believe that Maran's entry into SpiceJet as the single largest shareholder is
                positive for the company, as earlier its shareholding was very fragmented resulting in
                little management control. With a strong investor on its Board, the company's credit
                rating could also improve and enable it to raise money fairly quickly to fund its future
                expansion plans. Moreover, Maran's presence will help the company
                explore opportunities in South India where hitherto it has had a limited presence.
                Spicejet's impending plans to commence international operations particularly at a
                time when passenger traffic is increasing for low-cost carriers could also become a
                reality with a stable management and investor at the helm of affairs. Notably, the
                company expects to strongly focus on its expansion plans post FY2012.

                Outlook and Valuation

                We believe that the company is well placed to benefit from a reviving economy, which
                has led to an increase in passenger traffic demand, and which is expected to remain
                robust over FY2010-12E . Moreover, the company expects to add four
                aircraft in the current fiscal, which will further bolster Revenues for the year. Going
                forward, SpiceJet's market share is expected to increase as the company's peers King-
                fisher and Jet Airways are unlikely to expand in FY2011-12E due to losses
                during FY2010.

                At the CMP of Rs55, the stock is trading at 10.9x FY2011E and 7.6x FY2012E
                Earnings. We recommend an Accumulate on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs65,
                          We                                              Target Price
                valuing the stock at 9x FY2012E Earnings of Rs7.2.




June 14, 2010                                                                                         2
SpiceJet | Event Update




                Profit & Loss Statement                                                           Rs crore
                Y/E March                       FY2007    FY2008    FY2009    FY2010    FY2011E FY2012E
                Net Sales                          749     1,295     1,689     2,181      2,718     3,287

                Total operating income             749     1,295     1,689     2,181      2,718    3,287

                % chg                            140.5      72.8      30.5      29.1       24.6      20.9

                Total Expenditure                  920     1,547     2,109     2,155      2,527     3,007

                Fuel & Oil                         399       703       945       814      1,013     1,225

                Other Mfg costs                  187.1     345.2     476.4     511.8      584.9     675.2

                Personnel                         97.2     143.2     155.1     181.7      211.2     255.4

                Other                             88.8     103.4     173.0     257.3      276.6     317.8

                EBITDA
                EBITDA                          (170.3)   (252.0)   (419.2)     26.2      191.6    280.5

                % chg                            226.8      47.9      66.3    (106.2)     632.5      46.4

                (% of Net Sales)                 (22.7)    (19.5)    (24.8)      1.2        7.0       8.5

                Depreciation& Amortisation       5.847     7.817     7.254     7.661      8.446     8.869

                EBIT                            (176.2)   (259.8)   (426.4)     18.5      183.2    271.7

                % chg                            192.3      47.5      64.1    (104.3)     890.1      48.3

                (% of Net Sales)                 (23.5)    (20.1)    (25.2)      0.8        6.7       8.3

                Interest & other Charges           4.3      13.7      16.0       6.1        4.1         -

                Other Income                     107.8     143.6     124.1      61.0       76.0      92.0

                (% of PBT)                      (148.5)   (110.5)    (39.0)     83.1       29.8      25.3

                Share in profit of Associates         -         -         -         -         -         -

                Recurring PBT                    (72.6)   (130.0)   (318.3)     73.4      255.1    363.6

                % chg                             98.5      79.0     145.0    (123.1)     247.6      42.5

                Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)       3.4       1.1      30.9       5.6          -         -

                PBT (reported)                   (76.0)   (131.1)   (349.2)     67.8      255.1    363.6

                Tax                                1.0       2.4       3.3       6.4       49.7      70.9

                (% of PBT)                        (1.3)     (1.8)     (1.0)      9.4       19.5      19.5

                PAT (reported)                   (77.0)   (133.5)   (352.6)     61.4      205.4    292.7

                Add: Share of earnings of associate -           -         -         -         -         -

                Less: Minority interest (MI)          -         -         -         -         -         -

                Prior period items                    -         -         -         -         -         -

                PAT after MI (reported)          (77.0)   (133.5)   (352.6)     61.4      205.4    292.7

                ADJ. PAT
                ADJ. PA                          (77.0)   (133.5)   (352.6)     61.4      205.4    292.7

                % chg                            119.8      73.4     164.1          -     234.2      42.5

                (% of Net Sales)                 (10.3)    (10.3)    (20.9)      2.8        7.6       8.9

                Basic EPS (Rs)                    (3.2)     (5.5)    (14.6)      2.5        5.1       7.2

                Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)            (3.2)     (5.5)    (14.6)      1.5        5.1       7.2

                % chg                             68.3      73.4     163.7    (110.4)     234.2      42.5




June 14, 2010                                                                                               3
SpiceJet | Event Update




                Balance Sheet                                                                 Rs crore
                Y/E March                   FY2007    FY2008    FY2009    FY2010    FY2011E FY2012E
                SOURCES OF FUNDS

                Equity Share Capital         240.7     240.7     241.0     241.9      404.5     404.5

                Preference Capital                -         -         -         -         -         -

                Reserves& Surplus            (56.1)   (212.7)   (670.5)   (584.1)      34.9     327.6

                             Funds
                Shareholders Funds           184.6      28.0    (429.5)   (342.2)     439.3    732.0

                Minority Interest                 -         -         -         -         -         -

                Total Loans                  432.2     540.1     488.8     438.3          -         -

                Deferred Tax Liability            -         -         -         -         -         -

                Total Liabilities            616.7     568.1      59.4      96.1      439.3    732.0

                APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                APPLICATION

                Gross Block                   62.1      86.5      95.8     263.1      292.0     324.1

                Less: Acc. Depreciation       13.7      21.4      28.2      35.9       44.3      53.2

                Net Block                     48.4      65.1      67.6     227.2      247.7    271.0

                Capital Work-in-Progress     694.4     498.9     185.3     164.7       82.3       6.8

                Goodwill                          -         -         -         -         -         -

                Investments                   81.2       0.4          -         -         -         -

                Current Assets               479.9     796.9     497.9     597.2      825.6   1,215.7

                Cash                         351.1     608.1     308.0     450.7      534.9     864.1

                Loans & Advances             115.4     176.2     154.3     112.8      248.2     300.2

                Inventories                    7.9      11.1      12.5      14.7       22.3      27.0

                Debtors                        5.6       1.6      12.4      19.0       20.1      24.3

                Other                             -         -     10.8          -         -         -

                Current liabilities          687.1     793.2     691.4     892.9      716.3     761.4

                Net Current Assets          (207.2)      3.8    (193.5)   (295.8)     109.3    454.3

                Mis. Exp. not written off         -         -         -         -         -         -

                Total Assets                 616.7     568.1      59.4      96.1      439.3    732.0




June 14, 2010                                                                                           4
SpiceJet | Event Update




                Cash Flow Statement                                                                  Rs crore
                Y/E March                      FY2007      FY2008    FY2009    FY2010E    FY2011E FY2012E
                Profit before tax              (183.8)     (274.7)   (473.3)       6.8      179.1      271.7

                Depreciation                      5.8         7.8       7.3        7.7        8.4        8.9

                Change in Working Capital       488.0        76.9    (179.0)     224.1       11.9      111.8

                ADD: Other income               107.8       143.6     124.1       61.0       76.0       92.0

                Direct taxes paid                 1.0         2.4       3.3        6.4       49.7       70.9

                Cash Flow from Operations       416.9       (48.8)   (524.3)     293.2      225.7     413.4

                Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets   (334.7)      171.1     304.3     (167.3)     (28.9)     (32.1)

                Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments     (81.2)       80.9       0.4           -          -          -

                Inc./ (Dec.) in loans and advances(33.7)    (60.8)     21.9       41.5     (135.5)     (52.0)

                Other income/Expense             68.7         6.7     (57.8)     (24.8)      50.5           -

                Cash Flow from Investing       (380.9)      197.9     268.8     (150.6)    (113.9)     (84.1)

                Issue of Equity                 240.4            -      6.6        0.1       54.6           -

                Inc./(Dec.) in loans             21.7       108.0     (51.3)          -     (82.2)          -

                Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)            -           -         -          -          -          -

                Others                               -           -         -          -          -          -

                               Financing
                Cash Flow from Financing        262.1       108.0     (44.7)       0.1      (27.7)          -

                Inc./(Dec.) in Cash             298.1       257.0    (300.1)     142.7       84.1      329.3

                Opening Cash balances            52.9       351.1     608.1      308.0      450.7     534.9

                Closing Cash balances           351.1       608.1     308.0      450.7      534.9     864.1




June 14, 2010                                                                                                   5
SpiceJet | Event Update




                Key Ratios
                Y/E March                                FY2007    FY2008    FY2009    FY2010    FY2011E FY2012E
                Valuation Ratio (x)
                P/E (on FDEPS)                            (17.2)     (9.9)     (3.8)     36.3       10.9      7.6
                P/E (on basic, reported EPS)              (17.2)     (9.9)     (3.8)     21.7       10.9      7.6
                P/CEPS                                    (18.7)    (10.6)     (3.8)     19.3       10.4      7.4
                P/BV                                        7.2      47.4      (3.1)     (3.9)       5.1      3.0
                Market cap. / Sales                         1.8        1.0      0.8       0.6        0.8      0.7
                EV/Sales                                    1.9        1.0      0.9       0.6        0.6      0.4
                EV/EBITDA                                  (8.3)     (5.0)     (3.6)     50.5        8.8      4.9
                EV / Total Assets                           2.3        2.2     25.4      13.7        3.9      1.9
                EV/EBITDAR                                (62.3)   2,141.5    (25.1)      3.2        2.7      1.7
                Per Share Data (Rs)
                EPS (Basic)                                (3.2)     (5.5)    (14.6)      2.5        5.1      7.2
                EPS (fully diluted)                        (3.2)     (5.5)    (14.6)      1.5        5.1      7.2
                Cash EPS                                   (3.0)     (5.2)    (14.3)      2.9        5.3      7.5
                DPS                                            -         -         -         -          -        -
                Book Value                                  7.7        1.2    (17.8)    (14.1)      10.9     18.1
                Returns (%)
                ROCE (Pre-tax)                                 -         -         -     23.8       68.4     46.4
                ROE                                            -         -         -         -          -    50.0
                Turnover ratios (x)
                Asset Turnover (Gross Block)               12.4      17.4      18.5      12.2        9.8     10.7
                Asset Turnover (Net Block)                 15.4      22.8      25.5      14.8       11.4     12.7
                Asset Turnover (Total Assets)               1.5        2.2      5.4      28.1       10.2      5.6
                Operating Income / Invested Capital         2.8      18.0     (11.7)     (7.2)     (12.1)   (28.9)
                Inventory / Sales (days)                      3         3         3         2          2        3
                Receivables (days)                            2         1         2         3          3        2
                Payables (days)                            194        193      139       103          92       80
                Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days)    (155)      (164)    (119)     (104)       (79)      (46)
                Solvency ratios (x)
                Gross debt to equity                        2.3      19.3      (1.1)     (1.3)          -        -
                Net debt to equity                         80.7      (2.4)     (0.4)      0.0       (1.2)    (1.2)
                Net debt to EBITDA                          0.0        0.3     (0.4)     (0.5)      (2.8)    (3.1)
                Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)       (41.3)    (18.9)    (26.6)      3.0       44.6




June 14, 2010                                                                                                        6
SpiceJet | Event Update




Disclaimer
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment
decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are
those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading
volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources
believed to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained
within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents
or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information
discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed
or passed on, directly or indirectly.

Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other
advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.

Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




  Disclosure of Interest Statement                                              SpiceJet
  1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                No
  2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                          No
  3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock               No
  4. Broking relationship with company covered                                     No

  Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.



  Ratings (Returns) :                Buy (> 15%)                          Accumulate (5% to 15%)                       Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                     Reduce (-5% to -15%)                 Sell (< -15%)



June 14, 2010                                                                                                                                 7
SpiceJet




               Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                        Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800

Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra                                                                             VP-Research, Pharmaceutical                                                           sarabjit@angeltrade.com
Vaibhav Agrawal                                                                                  VP-Research, Banking                                                                  vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo                                                                                   Automobile                                                                            vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Shailesh Kanani                                                                                  Infrastructure, Real Estate                                                           shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com
Anand Shah                                                                                       FMCG , Media                                                                          anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Deepak Pareek                                                                                    Oil & Gas                                                                             deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
Puneet Bambha                                                                                    Capital Goods, Engineering                                                            puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com
Sushant Dalmia                                                                                   Pharmaceutical                                                                        sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com
Rupesh Sankhe                                                                                    Cement, Power                                                                         rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
Param Desai                                                                                      Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping                                                      paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
Sageraj Bariya                                                                                   Fertiliser, Mid-cap                                                                   sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
Viraj Nadkarni                                                                                   Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap                                                               virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com
Paresh Jain                                                                                      Metals & Mining                                                                       pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com
Amit Rane                                                                                        Banking                                                                               amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
Rahul Jain                                                                                       IT, Telecom                                                                           rahul.j@angeltrade.com
Jai Sharda                                                                                       Mid-cap                                                                               jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
Sharan Lillaney                                                                                  Mid-cap                                                                               sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com

Amit Vora                                                                                        Research Associate (Oil & Gas)                                                        amit.vora@angeltrade.com
V Srinivasan                                                                                     Research Associate (Cement, Power)                                                    v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Aniruddha Mate                                                                                   Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate)                                               aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com
Mihir Salot                                                                                      Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping)                                              mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
Chitrangda Kapur                                                                                 Research Associate (FMCG, Media)                                                      chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Vibha Salvi                                                                                      Research Associate (IT, Telecom)                                                      vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Pooja Jain                                                                                       Research Associate (Metals & Mining)                                                  pooja.j@angeltrade.com

Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni                                                                                 Sr. Technical Analyst                                                                 shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com
Mileen Vasudeo                                                                                   Technical Analyst                                                                     vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre                                                                                  Head - Derivatives                                                                    siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com
Jaya Agarwal                                                                                     Derivative Analyst                                                                    jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com


Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi                                                                                   VP - Institutional Sales                                                              mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com
Abhimanyu Sofat                                                                                  AVP - Institutional Sales                                                             abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com
Nitesh Jalan                                                                                     Sr. Manager                                                                           niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com
Pranav Modi                                                                                      Sr. Manager                                                                           pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Jangir                                                                                   Sr. Manager                                                                           sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com
Ganesh Iyer                                                                                      Sr. Manager                                                                           ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com
Jay Harsora                                                                                      Sr. Dealer                                                                            jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com
Meenakshi Chavan                                                                                 Dealer                                                                                meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com
Gaurang Tisani                                                                                   Dealer                                                                                gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com


Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty                                                                                  Research Editor                                                                       bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com
Bharat Patil                                                                                     Production                                                                            bharat.patil@angeltrade.com
Dilip Patel                                                                                      Production                                                                            dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com




Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

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Spice jet event update-14-06-10

  • 1. Event Update | Airlines June 14, 2010 SpiceJet ACCUMULATE CCUMULATE CMP Rs55 SpiceJet to change face Target Price Rs65 Sun TV promoter Kalanithi Maran has announced to buy 37.75% stake in SpiceJet Investment Period 12 months from the company's promoter Bhupendra Kansagra (Royal Holdings Services) and Stock Info investor Wilbur Ross at Rs47.3/share, which is at a 16.7% discount to the current Sector Airlines market price. Currently, the Kansagra family holds nearly 3.11cr shares or 7.7% stake in the company post 100% conversion of the FCCBs. Wilbur Ross holds close Market Cap (Rs cr) 1,772 to 12.5cr shares or 31% stake in the company post 100% conversion of the FCCBs. Beta 1.2 Kalanithi Maran will make an open offer at an expected price of Rs58/share for 52 Week High / Low 65/16 additional 20% stake in the company. Prior to the stake sale announcement, Avg Daily Volume 3752239 Goldman Sachs Securities (3.8% stake) converted close to 1.5cr shares held by Face Value (Rs) 10 way of warrants and Istithmar World (5.5% stake) converted 100% of its FCCBs worth US $12mn to 2.2cr shares, respectively. We maintain an Accumulate rating BSE Sensex 17,338 Target Price EPS. on the stock with a Target Price of Rs65, valuing the stock at 9x FY2012E EPS. Nifty 5,198 Reuters Code SPJT.BO Exhibit 1: Shareholding Pattern Pre re-FCCB Pre-FCCB and Post Post FCCB and Bloomberg Code SJET@IN Warrant Conversion Warrant Warrant Warrant Conversion After Stake Sale No. of % of No. of % of No. of % of Shareholding Pattern (%) Shareholders Shares (cr) Holding Shares (cr) Holding Shares (cr) Holding Ajay Singh 1.0 4.13 1.0 2.5 1.0 2.5 Promoters 12.9 Avanthi Shah 0.8 3.26 0.8 1.9 0.8 1.9 MF / Banks / Indian FIs 45.1 Ewart Investments Ltd 1.3 5.45 1.3 3.3 1.3 3.3 IDFC Premier Equity Fund 0.8 3.38 0.8 2.0 0.8 2.0 FII / NRIs / OCBs 15.7 Royal Holdings Services Ltd 3.1 12.85 3.1 7.7 - - Indian Public / Others 26.4 Sundaram BNP Paribas Mutual Fund 0.7 2.80 0.7 1.7 0.7 1.7 Vijendra Singh 0.5 2.12 0.5 1.3 0.5 1.3 Goldman Sachs - - 1.5 3.8 1.5 3.8 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Istithmar World PJSC 2.2 5.5 2.2 5.5 WL Ross* 12.5 30.9 - - Sensex 1.0 13.8 22.1 Kalanithi Maran 15.2 37.7 SpiceJet (7.4) 166.4 (2.7) Total Equity* 40.4 Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:* Estimated Exhibit 2: Key Financials Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 1,689 2,181 2,718 3,287 % chg 30.5 29.1 24.6 20.9 Profit Net Profit (353) 61 205 293 % chg 164.1 (117.4) 234.2 42.5 FDEPS (Rs) (14.6) 1.5 5.1 7.2 EBITDA Margin (%) (24.8) 1.2 7.0 8.5 P/E (x) (3.8) 21.7 10.9 7.6 RoE (%) - - - 50.0 RoCE (%) - 23.8 68.4 46.4 P/BV (x) (3.1) (3.9) 5.1 3.0 EV/Sales (x) 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 Sharan Lillaney EV/EBITDA (x) (3.6) 50.5 8.8 4.9 +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 338 Source: Company, Angel Research sharan.lillaney@angeltrade.com Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
  • 2. SpiceJet | Event Update Maran on SpiceJet's Board - Positive impact We believe that Maran's entry into SpiceJet as the single largest shareholder is positive for the company, as earlier its shareholding was very fragmented resulting in little management control. With a strong investor on its Board, the company's credit rating could also improve and enable it to raise money fairly quickly to fund its future expansion plans. Moreover, Maran's presence will help the company explore opportunities in South India where hitherto it has had a limited presence. Spicejet's impending plans to commence international operations particularly at a time when passenger traffic is increasing for low-cost carriers could also become a reality with a stable management and investor at the helm of affairs. Notably, the company expects to strongly focus on its expansion plans post FY2012. Outlook and Valuation We believe that the company is well placed to benefit from a reviving economy, which has led to an increase in passenger traffic demand, and which is expected to remain robust over FY2010-12E . Moreover, the company expects to add four aircraft in the current fiscal, which will further bolster Revenues for the year. Going forward, SpiceJet's market share is expected to increase as the company's peers King- fisher and Jet Airways are unlikely to expand in FY2011-12E due to losses during FY2010. At the CMP of Rs55, the stock is trading at 10.9x FY2011E and 7.6x FY2012E Earnings. We recommend an Accumulate on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs65, We Target Price valuing the stock at 9x FY2012E Earnings of Rs7.2. June 14, 2010 2
  • 3. SpiceJet | Event Update Profit & Loss Statement Rs crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 749 1,295 1,689 2,181 2,718 3,287 Total operating income 749 1,295 1,689 2,181 2,718 3,287 % chg 140.5 72.8 30.5 29.1 24.6 20.9 Total Expenditure 920 1,547 2,109 2,155 2,527 3,007 Fuel & Oil 399 703 945 814 1,013 1,225 Other Mfg costs 187.1 345.2 476.4 511.8 584.9 675.2 Personnel 97.2 143.2 155.1 181.7 211.2 255.4 Other 88.8 103.4 173.0 257.3 276.6 317.8 EBITDA EBITDA (170.3) (252.0) (419.2) 26.2 191.6 280.5 % chg 226.8 47.9 66.3 (106.2) 632.5 46.4 (% of Net Sales) (22.7) (19.5) (24.8) 1.2 7.0 8.5 Depreciation& Amortisation 5.847 7.817 7.254 7.661 8.446 8.869 EBIT (176.2) (259.8) (426.4) 18.5 183.2 271.7 % chg 192.3 47.5 64.1 (104.3) 890.1 48.3 (% of Net Sales) (23.5) (20.1) (25.2) 0.8 6.7 8.3 Interest & other Charges 4.3 13.7 16.0 6.1 4.1 - Other Income 107.8 143.6 124.1 61.0 76.0 92.0 (% of PBT) (148.5) (110.5) (39.0) 83.1 29.8 25.3 Share in profit of Associates - - - - - - Recurring PBT (72.6) (130.0) (318.3) 73.4 255.1 363.6 % chg 98.5 79.0 145.0 (123.1) 247.6 42.5 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) 3.4 1.1 30.9 5.6 - - PBT (reported) (76.0) (131.1) (349.2) 67.8 255.1 363.6 Tax 1.0 2.4 3.3 6.4 49.7 70.9 (% of PBT) (1.3) (1.8) (1.0) 9.4 19.5 19.5 PAT (reported) (77.0) (133.5) (352.6) 61.4 205.4 292.7 Add: Share of earnings of associate - - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - - Prior period items - - - - - - PAT after MI (reported) (77.0) (133.5) (352.6) 61.4 205.4 292.7 ADJ. PAT ADJ. PA (77.0) (133.5) (352.6) 61.4 205.4 292.7 % chg 119.8 73.4 164.1 - 234.2 42.5 (% of Net Sales) (10.3) (10.3) (20.9) 2.8 7.6 8.9 Basic EPS (Rs) (3.2) (5.5) (14.6) 2.5 5.1 7.2 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) (3.2) (5.5) (14.6) 1.5 5.1 7.2 % chg 68.3 73.4 163.7 (110.4) 234.2 42.5 June 14, 2010 3
  • 4. SpiceJet | Event Update Balance Sheet Rs crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 240.7 240.7 241.0 241.9 404.5 404.5 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves& Surplus (56.1) (212.7) (670.5) (584.1) 34.9 327.6 Funds Shareholders Funds 184.6 28.0 (429.5) (342.2) 439.3 732.0 Minority Interest - - - - - - Total Loans 432.2 540.1 488.8 438.3 - - Deferred Tax Liability - - - - - - Total Liabilities 616.7 568.1 59.4 96.1 439.3 732.0 APPLICATION OF FUNDS APPLICATION Gross Block 62.1 86.5 95.8 263.1 292.0 324.1 Less: Acc. Depreciation 13.7 21.4 28.2 35.9 44.3 53.2 Net Block 48.4 65.1 67.6 227.2 247.7 271.0 Capital Work-in-Progress 694.4 498.9 185.3 164.7 82.3 6.8 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 81.2 0.4 - - - - Current Assets 479.9 796.9 497.9 597.2 825.6 1,215.7 Cash 351.1 608.1 308.0 450.7 534.9 864.1 Loans & Advances 115.4 176.2 154.3 112.8 248.2 300.2 Inventories 7.9 11.1 12.5 14.7 22.3 27.0 Debtors 5.6 1.6 12.4 19.0 20.1 24.3 Other - - 10.8 - - - Current liabilities 687.1 793.2 691.4 892.9 716.3 761.4 Net Current Assets (207.2) 3.8 (193.5) (295.8) 109.3 454.3 Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - - Total Assets 616.7 568.1 59.4 96.1 439.3 732.0 June 14, 2010 4
  • 5. SpiceJet | Event Update Cash Flow Statement Rs crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax (183.8) (274.7) (473.3) 6.8 179.1 271.7 Depreciation 5.8 7.8 7.3 7.7 8.4 8.9 Change in Working Capital 488.0 76.9 (179.0) 224.1 11.9 111.8 ADD: Other income 107.8 143.6 124.1 61.0 76.0 92.0 Direct taxes paid 1.0 2.4 3.3 6.4 49.7 70.9 Cash Flow from Operations 416.9 (48.8) (524.3) 293.2 225.7 413.4 Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets (334.7) 171.1 304.3 (167.3) (28.9) (32.1) Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (81.2) 80.9 0.4 - - - Inc./ (Dec.) in loans and advances(33.7) (60.8) 21.9 41.5 (135.5) (52.0) Other income/Expense 68.7 6.7 (57.8) (24.8) 50.5 - Cash Flow from Investing (380.9) 197.9 268.8 (150.6) (113.9) (84.1) Issue of Equity 240.4 - 6.6 0.1 54.6 - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 21.7 108.0 (51.3) - (82.2) - Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) - - - - - - Others - - - - - - Financing Cash Flow from Financing 262.1 108.0 (44.7) 0.1 (27.7) - Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 298.1 257.0 (300.1) 142.7 84.1 329.3 Opening Cash balances 52.9 351.1 608.1 308.0 450.7 534.9 Closing Cash balances 351.1 608.1 308.0 450.7 534.9 864.1 June 14, 2010 5
  • 6. SpiceJet | Event Update Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) (17.2) (9.9) (3.8) 36.3 10.9 7.6 P/E (on basic, reported EPS) (17.2) (9.9) (3.8) 21.7 10.9 7.6 P/CEPS (18.7) (10.6) (3.8) 19.3 10.4 7.4 P/BV 7.2 47.4 (3.1) (3.9) 5.1 3.0 Market cap. / Sales 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 EV/Sales 1.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.4 EV/EBITDA (8.3) (5.0) (3.6) 50.5 8.8 4.9 EV / Total Assets 2.3 2.2 25.4 13.7 3.9 1.9 EV/EBITDAR (62.3) 2,141.5 (25.1) 3.2 2.7 1.7 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) (3.2) (5.5) (14.6) 2.5 5.1 7.2 EPS (fully diluted) (3.2) (5.5) (14.6) 1.5 5.1 7.2 Cash EPS (3.0) (5.2) (14.3) 2.9 5.3 7.5 DPS - - - - - - Book Value 7.7 1.2 (17.8) (14.1) 10.9 18.1 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) - - - 23.8 68.4 46.4 ROE - - - - - 50.0 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 12.4 17.4 18.5 12.2 9.8 10.7 Asset Turnover (Net Block) 15.4 22.8 25.5 14.8 11.4 12.7 Asset Turnover (Total Assets) 1.5 2.2 5.4 28.1 10.2 5.6 Operating Income / Invested Capital 2.8 18.0 (11.7) (7.2) (12.1) (28.9) Inventory / Sales (days) 3 3 3 2 2 3 Receivables (days) 2 1 2 3 3 2 Payables (days) 194 193 139 103 92 80 Working capital cycle (ex-cash) (days) (155) (164) (119) (104) (79) (46) Solvency ratios (x) Gross debt to equity 2.3 19.3 (1.1) (1.3) - - Net debt to equity 80.7 (2.4) (0.4) 0.0 (1.2) (1.2) Net debt to EBITDA 0.0 0.3 (0.4) (0.5) (2.8) (3.1) Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) (41.3) (18.9) (26.6) 3.0 44.6 June 14, 2010 6
  • 7. SpiceJet | Event Update Disclaimer This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement SpiceJet 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%) June 14, 2010 7
  • 8. SpiceJet Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angeltrade.com Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angeltrade.com Rahul Jain IT, Telecom rahul.j@angeltrade.com Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angeltrade.com Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com Production Team: Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302