Food planet health Fabrice DeClerck CLUES 2020

Food
Planet
Health
The EAT-Lancet Commission on
Healthy Diets From
Sustainable Food Systems

Welcome – please go here to start the class today
(and stay on zoom)

We are not yet bending
environmental curves

Florida's No. 1 industry just can't catch a
break.
First came Hurricane Irma, which clobbered
the Florida Keys and parts of Lee and Collier
counties last September.
Then came the toxic red tide and blue-green
algae on both coasts.
Now Hurricane Michael – a near-Cat 5 storm
that pounded Panama City and reduced
Mexico Beach to rubble – is again testing the
state’s tourism industry. Can it recover?
Tourism and hospitality welcomed 118.5 million
visitors in 2017.
Florida visitors spent $112 billion here annually –
and supported 1.4 million Florida jobs.

The scale of the challenge
And the world is off track to meet
all global nutrition targets

Number of countries facing burdens of
malnutrition
Number of countries facing burdens of malnutrition
Development Initiatives 2018 Global Nutrition Report

Food has become the leading cause of human mortality

1 Goal – 2 Targets – 5 Strategies
To Achieve Planetary
Health Diets for Nearly
10 Billion People By 2050

Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems
The Lancet, October 2017
Commissioners
Johan Rockstrom
Walter Willett
Tim Lang
David Tilman
Francesco Branca
Jessica Fanzo
Lindiwe Sibanda
Rina Augustina
Tara Garnett
Shenggen Fan
Corinna Hawkes
Rami Zurayk
Anna Lartey
Chris Murray
Ashkan Afshin
Sonja Vermeulen
Srinath Reddy
Sania Nishtar
Ann Thrupp
Juan Dommarco
Sunita Narain

EAT-Lancet Commission Approach
Define a healthy reference diet using the best available evidence
(controlled feeding studies, long-term cohort studies, randomized trials).
Define planetary boundaries for 6 key environmental systems and processes
(GHG, cropland use, water use, nitrogen and phosphorus application,
extinction rate).
Apply a global food systems modeling framework to analyze what combinations
of readily implementable measures are needed to stay within food production
boundaries while still delivering healthy diets by 2050.
Outline Strategies to achieve the changes needed to meet the goal of healthy
diets from sustainable food systems for all by 2050.

Scientific Targets for
Healthy Diets from
Sustainable Food
Production
1 Goal – 2 Targets – 10 Actions

• 2500 calories diet
constructed based on the
GBD risk analysis.
• Protective foods are those
that lower risk including
polyunsaturated fatty acids
(PUFA).
• Harmful are foods that above
a minimum allowed cause
harm.
We know what a healthy diet is.

Protective
31%
Neutral
42%
Potentially
Harmful
20%
Harmful
7%
Minimum risk diet versus what the world eats
Total calories: 2000
Total calories: 2881
Global DietMinimum Risk Diet
Protective
50%
PUFA
Neutral
36%
Harmful
2%

And trends are distinct by region

Adapted from Murray (EAT 2014)
Low Risk Diet
Food fails health

Evidence Base for the Planetary Health Diet
Randomized controlled feeding studies with CVD risk factor outcomes
Observational cohort studies with long follow-up and disease outcomes
Randomized trials of dietary patterns with CVD risk factors
and disease outcomes

Target 1 – Healthy Diets
2500 kcal/day

Target 1 – Healthy Diets
2500 kcal/day
week
week
100 (0-200)
210 (0-420)
90 (0-175)
+ 210 (0-700)
610 (0-1500)
210
434
133
280

Target 1 – Healthy
Diets
2500 kcal/day

“Dietary studies confirm what comparison of
the various diets of different cultures would
suggest, which is that there are many ways to
achieve a healthy, balanced diet and on the
extremes that overdose on meat, or avoid
animal protein all together tend to be
problematic. For diets between these extremes,
the biggest threat to dietary health is the very
modern one of consuming too many calories.”
Jonathan Silverton
Dinner with Darwin

Samples of Planetary Health Plates
©MollieKatzen

Current Intakes vs
Planetary Health Diet

0
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Landareaharvested(ha)
Year
Cereals
Roots and Tubers
Pulses
Treenuts
Oilcrops
Vegetables
Fruits

Crop
Relative
increase in
quantity
and
contribution
to calories
(rank)
Change in in
geographical
spread
(rank)
Murray
Risk Category
Soybean 1 2 Protective/Harmful*
Palm Oil 2 5 Harmful
Sunflower 3 3 Neutral
Wheat 4 35 Neutral
Rape and
Mustard
5 6 Neutral
Rice 6 15 Neutral
Sweeteners 7 4 Harmful

Khoury et al 2014 PNAS; National Geographic/J Foley 2013
National food supplies are homogenizing Biodiversity is declining

Potential savings from a minimum risk diet
Note: Preliminary results for USA produced by IHME. All dollars and percentages are annualized values from 2006-2010.
Disease
Actual
Expenditure
(2010 $US million)
Predicted
expenditure
(2010 $US million)
Savings
(2010 $US
million)
Percent
saved
Cardiovascular and
circulatory diseases
$134,712 $58,274 $76,438 -57%
Diabetes $116,327 $76,376 $39,952 -34%
Cancer $114,253 $101,743 $12,510 -11%
Musculoskeletal disorders $116,528 $115,916 $612 -1%
Following the GBD recommended diet would have
reduced US health expenditure in 2006-2010 by $130
billion per year – a 6% reduction.

Climate
C
Nitrogen
(N)
Phosphorus
(P)
Water
(H2O)
Biodiversity
(DNA)
Land

Target 2 – Sustainable Food Production
No new emissions from
Agriculture
0 land expansion
>30% flows in basins
Pollution
<1 – 2.5 mg N L-1
Pollution
<50- 100 mg P m-3
50% land intact by
ecoregion
Global
Implication

GlobalAdoption of theWestern diet is not an option

Ten Strategies for
a Great Food
Transformation
1 Goal – 2 Targets – 10 Actions

If we continue along current
trends, these hidden costs could
rise to more than $13 trillion a
year by 2030.
The loss of productive life from
obesity related diseases is set
to increase by 25% by 2030,
costing the global economy $3.3
trillion a year.
The social cost of GHG
emissions from food and land
use systems is projected to be
$1.4 trillion by 2030.
Hidden costs in 2030
1.3 1.4
0.8 0.7
1.7 1.9
1.5 1.4
2.1
3.1
1.8
1.4
2.7
3.3
11.9
2018 2030 - Current Trends
13.2
Source: Food and Land Use Coalition, 2019

Ten critical transitions

Critical transition 1: promoting healthy diets
Global diets need to converge towards local variations of the
“human and planetary health diet” – a predominantly plant-based
diet which includes more protective foods, a diverse protein
supply, and reduced consumption of sugar, salt and highly
processed foods.
As a result, consumers will enjoy a broader range of high-quality,
nutritious and affordable foods.
$1.28 trillion
$30 billion
$2 trillion

Change in Food Production
Almost no increase
in cereal production
Vegetables +75% Fruits >50% Fish >50% Legumes >75% Nuts >150%
Red meat production >65%

Five Objectives:
1. Ensuring access to land, water and healthy
soils.
2. Rebuilding climate resilience healthy
agroecosystems
3. Promoting healthy and sustainable diets for
all
4. Building fairer, shorter, cleaner supply chains
5. Putting trade in the service of sustainable
development.

Critical transition 2: scaling productive & regenerative
agriculture
Agricultural systems that are both productive and
regenerative will combine traditional techniques, such as crop
rotation, controlled livestock grazing systems and agroforestry,
with advanced precision farming technologies which support
more judicious use of inputs including land, water and synthetic
and bio-based fertilisers and pesticides.
$1.7 trillion
$35-40 billion
$530 billion

Yield gap – difference between actual and attainable yields
Clark et al. 2018 Annual Review of Env. Resour.
Global redistribution
of fertilizers (N & P)
Sustainable
Intensification
More sustainability

Diets Are Less Sustainable
Source: Poore, J. and Nemecek, T., 2018. Reducing food’s environmental impacts through producers and consumers. Science, 360(6392), pp.987-992.

Critical transition 3: protecting & restoring nature
Nature must be protected and restored. This requires an end to
the conversion of forests and other natural
ecosystems and massive investment in restoration at scale;
approximately 300 million hectares of tropical forests need to be
put into restoration by 2030.
$895 billion
$45-65 billion
$200 billion

The Sixth Extinction:
An Unnatural History
Elizabeth Kolbert
“We are deciding, without quite meaning to,
which evolutionary pathways will remain open
and which will forever be closed. No other
creature has ever managed this, and it will,
unfortunately, be our most enduring legacy.”
Book Review by Al Gore, New York Times, Feb. 2014

Imagine a planet that has a basic atmosphere and climate. Which of the
earth’s millions of species would you take with you??

Image of rhizobacter, an other key players in soil processes:
Nitrogen fixation
Break down cellulose
Phosphorus cycle
Developing antibiotics
Converting carbon to stable states
We need species to provide each of these functions.

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If you read or listen to almost any article about climate change, it’s
likely the story refers in some way to the “2 degrees Celsius limit.”
The story often mentions greatly increased risks if the climate
exceeds 2°C and even “catastrophic” impacts to our world if we warm
more than the target.
Recently a series of scientific papers have come out and stated that
we have a 5 percent chance of limiting warming to 2°C, and only one
chance in a hundred of keeping man-made global warming to 1.5°C,
the aspirational goal of the 2015 Paris United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change conference. Additionally, recent
research shows that we may have already locked in 1.5°C of
warming even if we magically reduced our carbon footprint to zero
today.

20%
10%
60-100%
50%
XX%
Target 11: 17% protected
Alignment with Aichi
Target 15: Carbon Stocks
Target 8: Pollution
(preliminary in NP target)
Target 14: Water and ES
(note impact of freshwater target)
Target 7: Agriculture
Target 12: Species Loss
60% ≥ p + i + r + a
60%
20%
10%
60-100%
50%
XX%
Target 11: 17% protected
Alignment with Aichi
Target 15: Carbon Stocks
Target 8: Pollution
(preliminary in NP target)
Target 14: Water and ES
(note impact of freshwater target)
Target 7: Agriculture
Target 12: Species Loss
60% ≥ p + i + r + a

Spare half for Nature, Share the rest

Critical transition 4: securing a productive & healthy
ocean
Sustainable fishing and aquaculture can deliver
increased supply of ocean proteins, reducing demand
for land and supporting healthier, and more diverse
diets. This is only possible if essential habitats -
estuaries, wetlands, mangrove forests and coral reefs – are
protected and restored and if nutrient and plastic pollution are
curbed.
$350 billion
$10 billion
$345 billion

Critical transition 5: diversifying protein supply
Rapid development of diversified sources of protein would
complement the global transition to healthy diets. Diversification
of human protein supply falls into four main categories: aquatic,
plant-based, insect-based and laboratory-cultured. These last
three sources alone could account for up to 10% of the global
protein market by 2030 and are expected to scale rapidly.
$240 billion
$15-25 billion
$240 billion

“Eat Food. Not too much. Mostly Plants.” Michael Pollan

Critical transition 6: reducing food loss & waste
Approximately one third of food produced is lost or
wasted. To produce this food that is never eaten by people
requires an agricultural area almost the size of the United
States. Reducing food loss and waste by just 25% would
therefore lead to significant benefits relating to environmental,
health, inclusion and food
security.
$450 billion
$30 billion
$255 billion

Areas of improvement include:
Infrastructure, storage across value chain
Packaging and processing technology
Food labelling, Food safety policies,
Information and education campaigns
In low income countries most food
loss at production stage
In high income countries food loss
at consumption stage

Critical transition 7: building local loops & linkages
With 80% of food projected to be consumed in cities by 2050,
what urban dwellers choose to eat and how their needs are
supplied will largely shape food and land use systems. This
transition sets out the opportunity to strengthen and scale
efficient and sustainable local food economies in towns and
cities.
$240 billion
$10 billion
$215 billion

Critical transition 8: harnessing the digital revolution
Digitisation of food and land use systems is occurring through
gene-editing techniques, precision farming, and logistics and
digital marketing tools, enabling producers and consumers to
make better, more informed choices, and to connect to the value
chain rapidly and efficiently.
$540 billion
$15 billion
$240 billion

Critical transition 9: delivering stronger rural
livelihoods
Underlying all ten critical transitions is a vision of rural areas
transformed into places of hope and opportunity, where thriving
communities can adapt to new challenges, protect and
regenerate natural capital and invest in a better future. This
means ensuring a just transition.
$300 billion
$95-110 billion
$440 billion

Critical transition 10: promoting gender equality &
accelerating the demographic transition
Women can be enormously powerful in shaping food
and land use systems, thanks to their central role in agriculture
and in decisions concerning nutrition, health and family planning.
Making sure women have equal access to resources, such as
land, labour, water and credit, should be central to policies
concerning the ten critical transitions, including by accelerating
the demographic transition to a replacement rate of fertility or
lower in all countries.
$195 billion
$15 billion
n/a
It would be very hard to quantify the business opportunities specifically related to this critical transition, not least because differences across health systems across the world
means that it is hard to generalise on public or private provision and modalities of delivery. One could even argue that access to reproductive and perinatal care falls into fulfilling
basic needs, and as such it should not be considered a business opportunity at all.

What does this mean for business?
Source: Blended Finance Taskforce, 2019

Dietary changes from current diets to healthy diets
are likely to substantially benefit human health,
averting about 11.0 million premature deaths per year,
a reduction of about 20%.
Feeding 10 billion people a healthy diet within safe
planetary boundaries is possible and will improve the
health and well being of millions of people and allow
us to pass onto our children a viable planet.

Food planet health Fabrice DeClerck CLUES 2020

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