1. Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change at the Local Level in the Coastal Zone EPA Climate Conference, Dublin, 30 th June 2010 Valerie Cummins Director, MERC 3

2. Acknowledgements J. Gault, C. O Mahony, M. Falaleeva, S. Gray, A. O Hagan, W. Lynn, M. Desmond, T. Shine, O Sulleabhain, Lynch, O Donovan PhD supervisor Prof. R.J. Devoy

3. Structure 1. Concept and principles of adaptation 2. Building capacity for local level adaptation Imcore project approach Expert Couplet Node in Cork Harbour Transitioning to Adaptive Strategies 3. Lessons learned to date

4. 1. Concepts and Principles of Adaptation

5. Why Adapt? Courtesy of Prof Robert Devoy, UCC We always have….

8. Policy Drivers:

9. Vulnerability – effects of climate change will be severe on coasts and marine ecosystems (e.g. risk of coastal erosion, biodiversity loss) Impacts on sectors e.g. fisheries & aquaculture New challenges – e.g. Marine Renewable Energy Governance – Need to build capacity for Adaptation Need for Marine Spatial Planning and ICZM Climate Change in the coastal zone

10. 2. Local Level Adaptation

11. IMCORE Methodology Nine coastal case studies across NW Europe Building Adaptive Capacity via transnational collaboration & boundary organisations Boundary organisations ‘Social organisations or collectives that sit in two different worlds such as science & policy, can be accessed equally by members of each world without loosing identity’ Forsyth, 2003:141

14. Cork Harbour: Review of trends Climate change will result in greater variability in flow rates. Water run-off Mean annual temperatures in Ireland have risen by 0.7°C over the past century. Recent research suggests mean temperatures in Ireland relative to the 1961–1990 averages are likely to rise by 1.4–1.8°C by the 2050s and by in excess of 2°C by the end of the century. Temperature Drier summers in the south east. Winter rainfall in Ireland by the 2050s is projected to increase by approximately 10% while reductions in summer of 12–17% are projected by the same time. By the 2080s, winter rainfall will have increased by 11–17% and summer rainfall will have reduced by 14–25%. Precipitation Evidence of significant increase in wave heights (up to 30cm) during winter months. Waves & Surges Observed decrease in the frequency of storms, but the intensity of storms has increased. Extreme Weather Atlantic waters freshened from 1960-1990 and are now becoming more saline. Sea Chemistry During the satellite era SLR of 3.5cm per decade has been observed. Projected rise of 60cm to 2100. Sea Level Rise 0.85°C rise in Irish coastal seas since 1950; 2007 warmest year in Irish coastal record. Sea Temperature Projections indicate increased risk of flooding; linked to precipitation patterns, storm patterns, and sea level rise. Flooding

15. Sectors Considered Cork Harbour: Issues Workshop Note: ESE (Ecological, Social & Economic Impacts) were identified Industry and Commerce Settlement and Land-use Biodiversity Energy Fisheries Transport Human Health Agriculture Port and Shipping Coastal Defence Built Heritage Tourism & Recreation

16. Cork Harbour – Scenario Building & Visualisation for Flood Risk Management Exploratory scenarios workshop - PESTLE framework; certainty & significance Visualisation tools for coastal flooding

19. 4. Lessons to date

21. “ Whatever there be of progress in life comes not through adaptation but through daring ” Henry Miller Contact: v.cummins@merc3.ie