2. Objectives of the Session
The objectives of this sessions are to:-
Review the concept and impacts of climate change.
Identify the impacts of climate change in Bangladesh.
Identify relationship between climate change and
development.
3. The “Climate Change” issue is traditionally subdivided into three
components
1. The Science: How has the climate changed and how is it expected to
change in the future?
2. The Impacts: What are the likely environmental and societal consequences
of changes in climate and to what extent can we adapt?
3. The Choices: What are the options available for mitigating the changes?
The political process--involving leaders from both the public private sectors--
then faces the challenging task of evaluating and reconciling the available
information and deciding on the path to take.
Phase I (80ies): does Climate Change occur and how much
Phase II (90ies): what are the impacts and vulnerabilities, emission
reduction (mitigation)
Phase III (ongoing): adaptation
In Bangladesh awareness, concern and acceptance are growing
Is Climate Change a Reality?
4. What is Climate Change?
In IPCC custom (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
Climate Change refers to any change in climate over time,
whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.
What Makes Climate Change?
Natural Action
Changes in the sun
Changes in the earth's orbit
Changes in the clouds
Changes in ice sheets
Volcanic eruptions
Changes in atmosphere gases (Greenhouse effect)
Internal Wiggles (for example El Nino)
Human Action
Some cause bigger changes, some cause small changes
Some cause slower changes, some cause fast changes
Some cause changes that last, some cause changes that go away fast
5. A hundred years of climate research can be
summarized in 5 key findings
The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and other
gases are increasing as a result of human activities, primarily
because of use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) and
deforestation
Higher concentrations of radiatively active gases like CO2, CH4,
and N2O tend to enhance the natural greenhouse effect and
warm the planet
Human-induced changes in atmospheric composition have very
likely contributed to global warming of about 0.6ºC (or more)
since 1900
Plausible scenarios of future energy-related emissions are
projected to cause global warming of 1.4 to 5.8ºC and sea-level
rise of about 10 to 90 cm by the end of the 21st century
Moderating the rate of global warming will require significant
reductions in emissions and take many decades
7. Atmospheric Lifetime of Individual Major
Greenhouse Gas Molecules
Carbon
Dioxide
~60% of warming from GHG 5 to 200 years
Methane ~20% of warming from GHG 8 to 12 years
Nitrous Oxide ~6% of warming from GHG ~120 years
CF4 (Perfluoromethane) >50,000 years
IPCC 2001
12. Ice melting
• Images gathered from the Defense
Meteorological Satellite Program of NASA
show the minimum Arctic sea ice
concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right).
1979 2003
16. Climate Change and trend of Natural Disaster
August
2005
–
Hurricane
Katrina
6th
strongest
hurricane,
largest
losses
of
a
single
event
Insured losses (US$ m):
Economic losses (US$ m): 125.000
61.000 (NFIP included)
source: AP
On
26th
July
2005
the
meteorological
station
at
Santacruz
in
North
Mumbai
(India)
recorded
944
mm
of
rainfall
within
24
hours,
the
highest
ever
in
the
history
of
precipitation
recordings
in
India.
26. Projected impacts of climate change
1°C 2°C 5°C
4°C
3°C
Sea level rise
threatens major cities
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Food
Water
Ecosystems
Risk of Abrupt and
Major Irreversible
Changes
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
0°C
Falling yields in many
developed regions
Rising number of species face extinction
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Significant decreases in water
availability in many areas, including
Mediterranean and Southern Africa
Small mountain glaciers
disappear – water
supplies threatened in
several areas
Extensive Damage
to Coral Reefs
Extreme
Weather
Events
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves
Possible rising yields in
some high latitude regions
27.
28. Climate Change Effects Impacts on Bangladesh
Sea Level Rise
Ocean Warming
Increased
Temperature
Increased Rainfall
Increased
Evaporation
Increased Tropical
Storms
Disappearing Small Islands
Salt Water Intrusion
Decline in Fisheries Harvest
Loss of Biodiversity
Increased Fire Risk
Increased Disease Risk, Range
Floods and Land Slides
Changes in Planting Season
Drought, Food Security
Transport Vulnerability
Food and Water Scarcity
How will climate change affect Bangladesh?
37. Impacts on the Sundarbans
10 cm SLR will inundate 15% of
the Sundarbans
25 cm SLR will inundate 40% of
the Sundarbans
45 cm SLR will inundate 75% of
the Sundarbans
60 cm SLR will inundate 100%
of the Sundarbans
1 - M SLR will destroy
Whole Sundarbans
Species like Sundari, main economic species in the Sundarbans, would
be replaced by less valuable Goran and Gewa.
Human habitation possible prevents inland migration.
Loss of the Sundarbans and other coastal wetlands would reduce
breeding ground for many estuarine fish, which could reduce their
population.
39. Climate-induced Displacement
and Migration in Bangladesh
• Over 100,000 people are
displaced by riverbank
erosion
• Floods and droughts
make many more
• Most displaced migrate
internally
• Dhaka - already
overpopulated (12
million) is the major
destination
40. Geopolitical and Environmental Security Aspect
Conflict over possession of natural resource.
Socio-political and economic unrest.
Migration en masse.
Regional disintegration.
Inter and/ or Intra-state conflict.
Loss of biodiversity.
Loss of human habitat.
Extinction of species.
From ‘Nuclear Winter’ to ‘Carbon Summer’.
46. Climate Change in River Basin will be felt Across the Hydrological Cycle
Forest hydrology Changed, leading to
loss of forest biodiversity
Increased temperatures
causes glacial melt.
Basin receives more
rain and less snow
Heavier rain increase erosion, siltation and landslide
Increased demand for
hydropower. Affects
timing of water available
downstream.
Higher temperature increase
evaporation from water
bodies and from soil
Greater extremes in water
availability (lower low flows
and more frequent floods)
affects supply of cooling
water for power station.
Greater production of
biofules increases
agriculture water
demand.
Costal cities vulnerable to floods,
storms, and sea-level rise. Increase in
paved surfaces accelerates runoff and
reduces aquifer research. Growing
demands for resources.
Increased temperature causes
more evaporative losses,
increase crop water demand.
Growing seasons alter. Drought
more frequent
Less frequent and heavier
rainfall reduce aquifer
recharge
Increased competition for water
concentrates pollution
Costal aquifers vulnerable to
salt-eater intrusion
Increased competition for water
risks drying up wetlands. Changes
in temperature, water availability
and pollution concentration affect
aquatic ecosystem.
47. Health effects
Temperature-related
illness and death
Extreme weather-
related health effects
Air pollution-related
health effects
Water and food-borne
diseases
Vector borne and
rodent borne diseases
Health Effects
Temperature-related
illness and death
Extreme weather-
related (floods, storms,
etc.) health effects
Air pollution-related
health effects
Human
exposures
Regional weather
changes
•Heat waves
•Extreme weather
•Temperature
•Precipitation
Regional weather
changes
•Heat waves
•Extreme weather
•Temperature
•
•Sea-level rise
Contamination
pathways
Transmission
dynamics
-
-
-
-
rodent
Microbial changes:
Contamination paths
Transmission dynamics
Water and food-borne
diseases
Vector borne and
borne diseases
Climate
Change
Climate
Change
Changes in agro-
ecosystems, hydrology
Socioeconomic and
demographic disruption
Effects of food and
water shortages
Mental, nutritional,
infectious-disease and
other effects
Modulating
influences
48. So, Adaptation
The human race must change with changing climate in order to survive and
persist as a species.
We have little or no choice over climate change and the best we have to do is
adaptation.
“Developing world will suffer about 80 percent of the damage from climate
change despite accounting for only around a third of GHG emission“
( Development and Climate change Report- 2010, World Bank)
Climate Change and Development
Some issues to consider
Climate change is happening now and will continue to happen
The most important impact of CC would be on natural resource base.
Livelihoods of majority of the population in Bangladesh is linked with the natural
resource base.
Failure to build capacity to adapt to climate change will have enormous socio-
economic and biological consequences
National action alone, or uncoordinated action is inadequate
But
49. 49
Risks posed to MDGs by Climate Change
Millennium Development Goals CC Risks
Eradicate extreme poverty and
hunger
Depleted livelihood assets, reduced
economic growth, and undermined food
security.
Achieve universal primary
education
Reduced ability of children to participate
in full-time education by loss of
infrastructure, livelihoods (forcing children
to work), and displaced families.
Promote gender equality and
empower women
Additional burdens on women's health
and time to participate in decision-making
and income-generating activities.
Reduce child mortality;
Improve maternal health;
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and
other diseases
Greater prevalence of vector- and water-
borne diseases, heat-related mortality.
Declining food security, maternal health
and availability of potable water.
Ensure environmental
sustainability
Negatively impacted natural resources
and productive ecosystems.
50. BANGLADESH CLIMATE CHANGE
STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN 2008
The Government of Bangladesh's vision is to eradicate
poverty and achieve economic and social well being for all
people. It is essential that Bangladesh prepares now to
adapt to climate change and safeguard the future well-
being of her people.
This will be achieved through a pro-poor Climate Change
Strategy, which prioritises adaptation and disaster risk
reduction, and also addresses low carbon development,
mitigation, technology transfer and the provision of adequate
finance.
SUMMARY
51. The Climate Change Action Plan is built on six pillars
1. Food security, social
protection and health
To ensure that the poorest and most vulnerable in society,
including women and children, are protected from climate change
and that all programmes focus on the needs of this group for
food security, safe housing, employment and access to basic
services, including health.
2. Comprehensive disaster
management
To further strengthen the country's already proven disaster
management systems to deal with increasingly frequent and
severe natural calamities.
3. Infrastructure To ensure that existing assets (e.g., coastal and river
embankments) are well-maintained and fit-for-purpose and that
urgently needed infrastructure (e.g. cyclone shelters and urban
drainage) is put in place to deal with the likely impacts of climate
change.
4. Research and knowledge
management
To predict the likely scale and timing of climate change impacts
on different sectors of the economy and socioeconomic groups;
to underpin future investment strategies; and to ensure that
Bangladesh is networked into the latest global thinking on
climate change.
5. Mitigation and low
carbon development
To evolve low carbon development options and implement these
as the country's economy grows over the coming decades.
6. Capacity building and
institutional strengthening
To enhance the capacity of government ministries and agencies,
civil society and the private sector to meet the challenge of
climate change.
52. Few examples
in Bangladesh
• Increase income through
alternative livelihoods
• Vegetable
farming at
household level
