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Food Security in Afghanistan
 

Food Security in Afghanistan

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The slides include an overview of the food security situation in Afghanistan.

The slides include an overview of the food security situation in Afghanistan.

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    Food Security in Afghanistan Food Security in Afghanistan Presentation Transcript

    • Status of Food Security in Afghanistan PRESENTED BY: Masaood Moahid MAJOR ADVISOR : PALB 2110 Dr. T.N Prakash Kammaradi SEMINAR TEACHERS: Dr. G.S. MAHADEVIAH Sri. HONNIAH 1
    • Seminar Flow 2 Introduction Afghanistan Food security & its four aspects World food scenario Major characteristics of food insecurity in Afghanistan Physical availability of food in Afghanistan Importance of wheat in Afghan food security Inflation & consumers‟ price index Food security by region and terrain Food Security and Strategic Framework of MAIL Wheat Flour Price Shocks and Household Food Security in Afghanistan by USDA in 2011 Main causes of food insecurity in Afghanistan Conclusion References
    • Introduction Years of political instability and war have led to high rates of poverty and food insecurity. Due to large fluctuations in weather and insecurity, Food production specially wheat is highly volatile and the country is dependent on its trading partners to meet any shortfalls. According to the UNWFP, Afghanistan is among the world‟s most vulnerable countries in terms of absorbing food price shocks. Mountainous terrain and poor infrastructure, and ongoing conflict, have limited the Afghanistan Government‟s ability to manage its food distribution and supply networks. Seasonality plays an important role in food security in Afghanistan. 3
    • Afghanistan  The center or heart of Asia  A landlocked country, making the trade of goods difficult and expensive.  Capital: Kabul  Area: 6.5 lack km = Rajistan + MP  Population: 33.4 millions (FAO Estimate 2013)  More than99 % Muslim, some Hindu and Sikh communities  Main ethnic groups: Pashtun, Tajik, Hazara, Uzbek  Currency: Afghani (AFN) 1 Rs = 0.93 AFN Latitudes 29° N and 39° N, and longitudes 60° E and 75° E 4
    • Conti….  It has rugged mountains and plains and is prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes and drought.  Temperatures are extreme, [(49.9 °C)- (−46 °C)]  A highly mineral-rich country  Agriculture - products: wheat, fruits, nuts, Saffron, onion, cotton, wool, meat.  Export commodities: fruits and nuts, carpets, wool, cotton, hides, precious and semi-precious gems.  Imports : machinery and other capital goods, food, textiles. 5
    • What is Food Security? 6
    • “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (UN- FAO, 2006). 7
    • The four dimensions of food security Availability (physical existence of food) Access (To have sufficient resources to obtain appropriate foods for a nutritious diet) Utilization (has a socio- biological aspect) Stability (temporal dimension of nutrition security) 8
    • Figure: 1: Conceptual Model of Food Security9
    • Right to food is a human right 10
    • World Food Security Scenario Worldwide around 842 million people are chronically hungry due to extreme poverty. 17,000 children die of hunger and undernutrition related diseases every day, which equals 6 million children who die of hunger every year. The number is declining due to: - increased economic growth -the fall in international food prices since 2008 11
    • Table1: Undernourishment around the world, 1990-92 to 2011-13 (millions) 1990-92 2000-02 2005-07 2008-10 2011-13* World 1015.3 957.3 906.6 878.2 842.3 Developed Regions 19.8 18.4 13.6 15.2 15.7 Developing Regions 995.9 938.9 992.9 863 826 Africa 177.6 214.3 217.6 226 226.4 Northern Africa 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.4 3.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 173.1 209.5 212.8 221.6 222.6 Asia 751.3 662.3 619.6 585.5 552 Central Asia 9.7 11.6 7.3 7 5.5 Eastern Asia 278.7 193.5 184.8 169.1 166.6 South-Eastern Asia 140.3 113.6 94.2 80.5 64.5 Southern Asia 314.3 330.2 316.6 309.9 297.7 Western Asia 8.4 13.5 16.8 19.1 20.6 Latin America and the Caribbean 65.7 61 54.6 50.3 47 Caribbean 8.3 7.2 7.5 6.8 7.2 Latin America 57.4 53.8 47.2 43.5 39.8 Oceania 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 Source: FAOSTAT 12
    • Figure 2: (%) of undernourishment around the world Source: FAOSTAT % 13
    • MAJOR CHARACTERISTICS OF FOOD INSECURITY IN AFGHANISTAN  Food insecurity in Afghanistan is a complex problem with multiple sources that reportedly affects over 30 percent of the population. (World Bank)  At the household level, food insecurity in Afghanistan is largely caused by inadequate access to food.  The lack of food has been the cause of food insecurity in Afghanistan in times of drought and in isolated communities located at high elevations during winter months.  As of World Bank: “Even where household access to food is sufficient, utilization of food and nutritional outcomes is inadequate.  “access” can be broadly considered as the major or primary characteristic of food insecurity in Afghanistan, but the “availability” and “utilization” of food are also important factors which, depending on the subject beneficiary population. 14
    • Physical Availability of Food in Afghanistan 15
    • Table 2: Cereal Production in Afghanistan, Demand and Gap 2004-2012 (thousands of tons) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2004-11 (Av.) Total Cereal production 3,057 5,243 4,447 5,443 3,860 6,333 5,726 4,444 4,819 Total Demand 5,717 5,866 6,018 6,175 6,500 6,630 6,410 6,340 6,207 Demand-Supply Gap 2,660 623 1,571 732 2,640 297 684 1,896 1,388 Self-Sufficiency Rate (%) 53 89 74 88 59 96 89 70 77 Source: www.mail.gov.af (2012) 16
    • Figure2: Cereal & wheat production and demand (000, MT) Source: mail.gov.af (2012) 17
    • Cereal import dependency ratio cereal imports/(cereal production+cereal import-cereal export) 2000-02 2001-03 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-07 2006-08 2007-09 Afghanistan 34.1 26.9 20.4 17.7 18.9 18.4 23.2 20.9 India 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.5 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 36.6 28.9 21.0 18.4 16.8 17.2 25.6 32.6 Pakistan 2.1 0.9 0.8 2.3 3.1 3.0 3.5 5.6 Source: FAOSTAT Table 3: CID ratio of Afghanistan and regional countries (%) 18
    • 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 Afghanistan India Iran (Islamic Republic of) Pakistan 19 Figure 3: CID Ratio, Afghanistan and Region (%)
    • Source: NRVA 2009 Figure 3: Food Consumption by Product Category 20
    • Average Value of Food Production - The total value of Annual Food Production, by the total population. - It provides a cross country comparable measure. Source: FAOSTAT 21 Figure 5: Average value of Food Production, USD
    • Importance of wheat in the food security of Afghanistan Wheat is a key staple food in Afghanistan, accounting for more than half the caloric intake of the population. Afghanistan is not self sufficient in wheat. It imports wheat from a number of neighboring countries but Pakistan tends to supply more than half of these imports. Afghanistan‟s food supply network broke down in 2008 due to shortfalls in Pakistani and Afghan wheat production and Pakistan‟s bans on wheat exports & it caused transitory food insecurity. 22
    • Afghanistan 170 Pakistan 106 Iran 160 Uzbekistan 164 Asia Region 66 Table 4: Per Capita Wheat Consumption (Kg) Selected Countries and Asia Region 23 Source :FEWS NET, ‘Northern Wheat Trader Survey and Afghan Food Security, Bruce Schulte, 2007.
    • Table 5: Production Imports, Aid and MAIL est. Requirement of Wheat in Afghanistan (000, MT), (2006-2001) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2006-11 (Av.) Production 3363 4343 2767 5115 4532 3388 3,918 Imports 555 316 324 583 1,135 803 619 Food Aid ( Cereals) 84 174 212 218 82 Nil 154 MAIL Est. Requirement 4,820 4,917 4,722 5,260 5,231 5,163 5,019 Total Supply 4002 4833 3303 5916 5749 4191 4,666 Deficit as of Total Supply 818 84 1,419 (656) (518) 972 353 Deficit as % of Total Supply 20.44% 1.74% 42.96% -11.09% -9.01% 23.19% 7.57% Source: MAIL (2012) 24
    • Figure 6:Production, import & food aid of wheat Figure7 : Requirement, T. supply and deficit of Wheat Source: MAIL 25
    • 26 Source: www.mail.gov.af Figure 8: Irrigated & Rainfed Wheat Production in Afghanistan
    • Source: MAIL (2012) Figure 9:Retail Wheat Prices in Afghanistan (USD $) 2006-2012 Jan. 2006 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 Jan. 11 Jan. 12 Series1 0.28 0.274 0.76 0.44 0.42 0.44 0.43 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8AxisTitle 27
    • In Afghanistan wheat is a Giffen and an inferior good, how? Robert Giffen 28
    • 29 Figure 10: Afghan households spent more on grains and less on other foods as wheat prices increased between August 2007 and September 2008
    • 30 Figure 11 : Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year
    • Source: www.cso.gov.af 31 Figure 12 : Consumer Price Index (2005-06)-(2009-10) Table 8: National Consumer Price Index, Annual Inflation Rate (%) Items 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Overall Index 9 4.5 22.5 4.9 -4.5 Food 7.7 6 31.9 4.3 -9.1 Bread and cereals 8.1 4.8 52.3 3 -19
    • Table 9 :Average prices by quarter (AFN) Fall Winter Spring Summer Price of domestic wheat flour per (kg) 18.09 23.51 34.19 36.51 Price of vegetable oil per (kg) 64.81 76.93 88.9 91.7 Price of domestic rice per (kg) 33.93 33.99 46.16 55.26 Price of lamb per (kg) 182.34 186.2 189.28 180.27 Price of milk per (kg) 23.44 25.66 27.23 30.75 Price of fuel gas per (kg) 43.15 63 46.83 55.48 Note: Estimated population weighted means. Prices in Afghani per kilogram Source: NRVA 2007/08 32
    • Wheat Flour Price Shocks and Household Food Security in Afghanistan by USDA in 2011 33
    • Study Findings: • Afghan households coped with the sudden rise in food prices by cutting back on overall food consumption and, to a lesser extent, on calories consumed. • Households were able to buffer the effects of the wheat flour price shocks on calories consumed by changing the composition of their diets, moving away from micronutrient-rich foods, such as meat, fruits, and vegetables, toward grains. • The decline in household food security was felt across both rural and urban areas. Urban households made changes that led to large declines in food consumption, but were able to maintain calories by greatly reducing the diversity of their diets and buying cheaper foods. Rural households made changes that led to smaller declines in their food consumption and in the variety of foods they consumed, but relatively larger declines in calories. • As the price of wheat flour increased, demand for wheat products was relatively steady in rural areas, but rose in urban areas. 34
    • Table 10: Population statistics by area and household type National Rural Urban Agricultural Household Nonagricultural households Nominal value of monthly per capita total consumption (AFN) 19,25.60 1,675.50 2,931.47 1,752.20 2,159.44 Nominal value of monthly per capita food consumption (AFN) 1,158.22 1,104.57 1,370.82 1,133.96 1,189.42 Food Consumption Score 60.95 59.58 66.46 61.59 60.07 Price of domestic wheat flour (AFN per kg) 25.33 25.52 24.5 25.77 24.7 Price of vegetable oil (AFN per kg) 43.8 43.9 43.2 44 43.6 Price of domestic rice (AFN per kg) 37.2 37.2 36.9 37.3 37 Price of fuel gas (AFN per kg) 44.6 46 43.2 45.8 43.3 Note: Estimates are population-weighted means 35 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
    • Table 11: 36 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service
    • Table 12: The impact of higher food prices on household well-being Log real value of per capita monthly food consumption Log per capita calories availability Log food consumption score Log per capita daily protein availability Log wheat flour price -0.202*** -0.070*** -0.102*** -0.249*** Std. error [0.021] [0.020] [0.024] [0.069] Observations 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 R2 0.663 0.421 0.639 0.606 Notes: Each column represents a separate regression; OLS estimates are population weighted. Robust standard errors -in brackets- are clustered by stratum and adjusted for survey design. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service 37
    • Table 13: Changes in expenditure shares by food group Grain Meat Dairy Oil/fat Vegetable Fruit Sugar Log wheat flour price 0.191*** -0.032 -0.019 -0.031 -0.028 -0.07 -0.012 Standard error [0.011] [0.009] [0.007] [0.004] [0.004] [0.007] [0.002] Observations 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 R^2 0.674 0.419 0.261 0.241 0.46 0.533 0.434 Table: Each Column represents a separate regression; dependent variable is the household expenditure share from the food group listed at top of column.. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 38
    • Table 14: Changes in calorie shares by food group Grain Meat Dairy Oilfat Vegetable Fruit Sugar Log wheat flour price 0.042*** 0 -0.004 -0.017*** 0 -0.02*** -0.002 St. error [0.008] [0.002] [0.004] [0.004] [0.002] [0.003] [0.002] Observations 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 20,491 R^2 0.324 0.289 0.287 0.241 0.26 0.233 0.234 Table: Each Column represents a separate regression; dependent variable is the household calorie share from the food group listed at top of column. All control variables listed in table 4 are included in the regressions. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 39
    • Food Security by Region 40 Figure 13 : Map of Afghanistan & its Regions
    • 41 Figure 14: Food Security by Regions, Main Findings Source: USDA, Economic Research Services
    • Food Security & Terrain The prevalence of food insecurity is generally higher in mountains and plateaus of Afghanistan. people residing in mountainous regions of Afghanistan experience much higher calorie and protein deficiency compared to those living in lowlands. Similarly, the population in the plateaus also experience higher food insecurity outcomes vis-à-vis their counterparts who live in the plains. The terrain characteristics affect food security outcomes by impacting access to markets, transportation costs, and livelihood opportunities. 42
    • 43 Figure 15: Major Faming Systems & Food Security by Terrain Type, % deficiency.
    • The most vulnerable to the high prices of food in Afghanistan Agricultural Labor in the rural areas Poor in the urban areas Children under five years People over 65 years are the most food-insecure Women 44
    • Economic Growth and Food Security ChangeManagement:Coordination, PolicyandPlanningRegulatoryFramework, Capacitybuilding Economic Regeneration: Producers organizations & agribusiness, Credit, Value addition, Market linkages Agricultural Production & Productivity: Ceareals & Staples, Horticulture, Industrial Crops, Livestock products Natural Resources: Land, Water, Rangeland, Forests, etc. 45 Figure 17 :Strategic Framework of MAIL
    • WFP Food Support Programs 1-Relief-General Food Distribution 46 Provision of relief ration to people who suffer from man-made and natural disasters. During 2006-2008, 21 percent of Government’s overall food aid.
    • Food is given to the people as incentive for their labor contribution in building or repairing productive community infrastructure such as roads, bridges, reservoirs and irrigation systems. The projects are selected in consultation with the local communities.. 47 2-Food for Work
    • FFE aims to bridge nutritional gaps among children and promote school enrollment, particularly among girls, by providing school meals and take-home rations. 48 3-Food for Education
    • FFT is designed to help the poor acquire vocational skills. The ultimate objective of FFT is to improve economic and social prospects for vulnerable members of the community, particularly women. 49 Food For Training
    • Table 9 : Number of Recipients/Beneficiaries by Program Activities (in, 000) Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 GFD 1,138 765 1,240 1,400 1,800 Food for Work 271 642 859 4,400 1,500 Food for Education 1,972 2,203 2,228 2,800 1600 Food For Training 55 75 150 180 140 TB Patients 25 22 22 20 20 Source: WFP (2010) 50
    • Key Causes or Drivers of Food Insecurity in Afghanistan • Lack of employment opportunities • Low wages and low household income • Insufficient local production of wheat and cereals • Declining livestock production • Insufficient water resources for agriculture, i.e. drought • Lack of access to and poor quality of drinking water • Lack of education and health services, particularly for women • Refugee and IDP migration . Higher Population Growth 51
    • 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 1990-92 1991-93 1992-94 1993-95 1994-96 1995-97 1996-98 1997-99 1998-00 1999-01 2000-02 2001-03 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-07 2006-08 2007-09 2008-10 2009-11 2010-12 2011-13 Population AxisTitle Population Source: FAO STAT 52 Figure 17: Population of Afghanistan, (1990-12)-(2011-13)
    • In addition to the above, other comprehensive factors operating in Afghanistan negatively impact food security: • Conflict • Isolation and Lack of Foreign Investment • Loss of Export Markets • Brain Drain • Poppy Cultivation • Environmental Degradation 53
    • Conclusions 54
    • References D. S. ANNA, 2011, Wheat Flour Price Shocks and Household Food Security in Afghanistan, Economic Research Services, USDA. H. MALLETA, 2004, Seasonal Changes in Wages and Food Prices in Afghanistan, Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, Kabul. Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Ministry of Economy and the World Bank, „Poverty and Food Security in Afghanistan: Analysis based on the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment‟ February 2012. Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, „Agricultural Commodity Price Bulletin‟ selected issues. Central Statistics Office (CSO), Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook, 2012. www.cso.gov.af Food and Agriculture Organization of The United Nations (2012). Statistics Division. http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx World Food Programme (2008) Food Security Overview, http://www.wfp.org/country_brief/indexcountry.asp?country=004 55
    • 56 Discussion Questions ?