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What the milling/ baking industries will need from wheat in 2025

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Presentation delivered by Felipe de Javier Pena Duenas (CANIMOLT and CONAGO, Mexico) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico.
http://www.borlaug100.org

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What the milling/ baking industries will need from wheat in 2025

  1. 1. WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK CHALLENGE: TO FEED 8 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2025 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.1 0 2 4 6 8 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 BILLIONS OF PEOPLE 22% 78% 1990 Less developed More developed 16% 84% 2025 Fuente: ONU. REGIONS: 2
  2. 2. • THE HIGHER THE INCOME (Q5) THE INTAKE OF ANIMAL PROTEIN AND SUGARS INCREASES, WHILE CEREAL INTAKE DECREASES. • THE LESSER THE INCOME (Q1) THE INTAKE OF CEREAL INCREASES. WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK CEREALS IN ALIMENTATION Source: FAO. 3 Proportion of food groups in the total supply of dietary energy OTHER SUGARS FATS AND OILS FOODS OF ANIMAL ORIGIN FRUITS VEGETABLES ROOTS AND TUBERS CEREALSSaharan AfricaAsia Latin America and the Caribbean North Africa
  3. 3. Source: CANIMOLT with data from OMS, USDA and the World Bank 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 KG/PERSON Obese population (%) over 20 years old 17% 17% 17% 34% 21% 20% 2% 17% 6% 36% 32% 6% 2% 33% 19% 33% $153 $198 $80 $125 $302 $234 $44 $80 $10 $659 $8,233 $219 $51 $631 $990 $603 Total expenditure on health, per capita (USD) WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK WHEAT CONSUMPTION AND HEALTH EXPENDITURE 4
  4. 4. WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK AREA HARVESTED AND GRAIN YIELD 5 333 352 225 232 163 165 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2014 2022 AREA HARVESTED (million ha) COARSE GRAINS WHEAT RICE *Coarse grains: Corn, sorghum and millet, among others. Source: FAO. 3.7 4.0 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 2014 2022 YIELD (ton/ha) COARSE GRAINS WHEAT RICE
  5. 5. WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA CEREAL 6 1,233 1,407 712 784 500 549 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2014 2022 PRODUCTION (million tonnes) COARSE GRAINS WHEAT RICE 32 35 66 68 58 59 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2014 2022 PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION (kg / person) COARSE GRAINS WHEAT RICE *Coarse grains: corn, sorghum and millet. Source: FAO.
  6. 6. 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 AREA (MILL. OF HAS) Corn Wheat WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK PLANTED AREA AND YIELD OF CORN AND WHEAT Source: CANIMOLT, with USDA data. 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 YIELD (TON/HAS) Corn Wheat 7
  7. 7. Source: CANIMOLT, with USDA data (August 2013). PRODUCTION: 655 MT CONSUMPTION: 687 MT IMPORT: 145 MT EXPORT: 139 MT 1) EU 133 MT 4) USA 62 MT 2) CHINA 121 MT 5) RUSSIA 38 MT 3) INDIA 95 MT 21) MEXICO 3 MT 1) CHINA 125 MT 2) EU 121 MT 3) INDIA 84 MT 4) USA 38 MT 5) RUSSIA 34 MT 1) EGYPT 8 MT17) MEXICO 7 MT 2) BRAZIL 7 MT 3) INDONESIA 7 MT 4) JAPAN 7 MT 5) ALGERIA 6 MT 11) MEXICO 4 MT 1) USA 27 MT 2) EU 22 MT 3) AUSTRALIA 19 MT 4) CANADA 19 MT 5) RUSSIA 11 MT 16) MEXICO 1 MT WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK WHEAT MARKET IN 2013 6
  8. 8. PRODUCTION : 785 MT (+20%) CONSUMPTION: 782 MT (+14%) IMPORT : 150 MT (+3%) EXPORT: 150 MT (+8%) UE +149 MT USA -57 MT CHINA +127 MT RUSSIA +66 MT INDIA +112 MT MEXICO +4 MT CHINA +129 MT UE +136 MT INDIA +109 MT USA -36 MT RUSSIA +45 MT EGYPT +13 MTMEXICO -6 MT BRAZIL +8 MT INDONESIA 7 MT JAPAN -5 MT ALGERIA 6 MT MEXICO -3 MT USA -24 MT UE -18 MT AUSTRALIA -17 MT CANADA +21 MT RUSSIA +21 MT MEXICO 1 MT WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK WHEAT MARKET IN 2022 6 Source: CANIMOLT, with OCDE-FAO data.
  9. 9. 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014e 2021/2022e MILLION TONS Consumption Production Stock STOCKCONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK WHEAT PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND STOCK Source: CANIMOLT, with USDA data (August 2013) and of FAO. 10
  10. 10. 23% 26% 25% 22% 21% 27% 31% 30% 29% 26% 27% 26% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 21/22 Price HRW Price SRW Stock/consumption (%) INTERNATIONAL PRICE (USD/TON) STOCK/ INTAKE (%) MEAN WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK RELATION OF WHEAT STOCK VS WHEAT PRICE Source: CANIMOLT, with data from USDA (August 2013). 11
  11. 11. 55% 7% 68% 102% 66% 91% 4% 95% 26% 13% 66% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Egypt China Brazil Indonesia Algeria Japan EU-27 South Korea Iran USA Mexico 2012/2013 2013/2014 Import/Consumption (%) Import (millions of tons) Importation/Consump tion (%) FOOD SECURITY Just China, EU, USA have food SECURITY Source: CANIMOLT, with data from USDA. WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK WHEAT IMPORTERS AND WHEAT FOOD SECURITY 12
  12. 12. WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF DURUM WHEAT (PASTA) Source: CANIMOLT, with data from IGC. 13
  13. 13. WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK PRODUCTION BY VARIETY OF WHEAT AND CONSUMPTION IN DESTINY Source: CANIMOLT, with data from OECD-FAO and the IGC. HARD AND SOFT (BACKERY) 95% DURUM (PASTA) 5% PRODUCTION 2013/2014: 713 MT HUMAN 68% ANIMAL FEED 20% OTHER 12% CONSUMPTION 2013/2014: 698 MT 36 MT677 MT 14
  14. 14. 88 milling plants Installed capacity: 8.4 MT Wheat consumption: 6.2 MT Flour and semolina production: 4.7 MT Northeast: 13% North: 13% Center-West: 23% Metropolitan area: 33% South-southeast: 18% MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK REQUIREMENTS OF THE MILLING INDUSTRY 2013 Source: CANIMOLT. 15 CONCEPT 2013 M. TON National Production 3.5 Imports 4.2 TOTAL 7.7 Exports (durum) 0.7 Feed 0.7 MILLING INDUSTRY 6.2
  15. 15. CHIHSON BC JAL GTO MICH BC SON BREADMAKING WHEATS: 1.3 MT (38% prod. Nac): Hard and medium 0.8 MT Soft 0.5 MT DURUM WHEAT (pasta): 2.2 MT (62% domestic prod. ): Cristalino or Durum MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK MÉXICO PRODUCES 56% OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF INDUSTRY Source: CANIMOLT, with data from SIAP. 16 TOTAL PRODUCTION: 3.5 MT
  16. 16. USA, 71% CANADA , 24% RUSSIA, 4% FRANCE, 1% TOTAL IMPORT: 4.2 MT • USA: 2.9 MT • Canada: 1.0 MT • Russia: 0.2 MT • France: 0.03 MT ND AB SK MB TX OK KS NC IL MO ID WA OR INTERNATIONAL BASE: • Freight to elevators • International freight • Internment costs • Freight to milling plant SHIP 72% TRAIN 28% MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK MEXICO IMPORTS 44% OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE MILLING INDUSTRY Source: CANIMOLT, with data from Customs-SAT. 17
  17. 17. BREADMAKING BREADS High protein Hard Red Spring (HRS) Canada Western Hard Red Spring (CWHRS) Medium protein Hard Red Winter (HRW) Soft Soft Red Winter (SRW) Soft White (SW) ND AB SK MB TX OK KS NC IL MO ID WA OR IMPORT: 4.2 MT • Hard Red Spring: 1.4 MT • Soft Red Winter 1.4 MT • Canada Western Hard Red Spring : 1.0 MT • Soft White: 0.03 MT • Hard Red Spring: 0.1 MT • Others: 0.2 MT Other 3% HRS 3% SW 1% CWHRS 24% SRW 33% HRW 33% MT MN MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK REQUIRED QUALITY BY THE MILLING INDUSTRY Source: CANIMOLT, with data from USDA. 18
  18. 18. BREADMAKING 5.5 MT (89%): • High protein • Medium protein • Soft PASTA 0.8 MT (11%): • Cristalino or Durum HIGH AND MEDIUM PROTEIN SOFT CRISTALINO OR DURUM MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK CONSUMPTION OF WHEAT BASED PRODUCTS 19 Source: CANIMOLT. TOTAL MILLING CONSUMPTION 2013: 6.2 MT
  19. 19. 49% 40% 5% 6% Corn products Wheat products Rice Other MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK HOUSEHOLD SPENDING ON CEREALS 20 Source: INEGI.
  20. 20. 42% 7% 15% 7% 5% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1% Corn tortilla Corn, flour, dough,… Sweet bread White bread Cookies Sliced bread Noodles spaghetti… Flour tortilla Cakes and pastries Wheat flour Other wheat products Source: INEGI. MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK HOUSEHOLD SPENDING IN CORN AND WHEAT PRODUCTS 21
  21. 21. MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK SALES OF INDUSTRIALIZED PRODUCTS OF WHEAT 20 Source: INEGI. 2,834 2,919 3,054 3,2113,224 3,287 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 FLOUR (Thousands de Tons) 144 169 185 179 203 191 - 50 100 150 200 250 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SEMOLINA (Thousands of Tons)
  22. 22. 784 759 809 821 846 853 700 720 740 760 780 800 820 840 860 880 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 BREAD AND PASTRIES (Thousands of tons) 707 706 726 762 790 769 99 92 115 117 104 97 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 COOKIES (Thousands of tons) SWEET SALTED MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK SALES OF INDUSTRIALIZED WHEAT PRODUCTS 21 Source: INEGI.
  23. 23. 304 317 327 334 347 337 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 350 360 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SPAGHETTI AND PASTA (Thousands de Tons) 96 99 113 122 129 126 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 FLOUR TORTILLA (Thousands of Tons) MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK SALES OF INDUSTRIALIZED WHEAT PRODUCTS 22 Source: INEGI.
  24. 24. 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.7 4.2 4.8 5.6 0.44 0.25 0.08 6.8 7.4 8.0 8.7 9.5 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2010* 2015 2020 2025 2030 Milliontons PRODUCTION IMPORTS EXPORTS CONSUMPTION Deficit 5.6 MT MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FUTURE NEEDS OF WHEAT IN THE INDUSTRY 25 Source: CANIMOLT, with data from con SIAP and Customs- SAT.
  25. 25. MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE WHEAT PRODUCTION CHAIN 26 1) Increase in Production 2) Varietal Outline 4) Consumption Patterns 3) Comercial/ Productive Model Increase domestic production to achieve the level of food security in the production chain Defining the schema development, management and delivery of appropriate wheat varieties, based on the needs of the production and consumption Design and development of production models and efficient comercialization of wheat in Mexico Increase per capita consumption of wheat products, and explore new market niches Source: CANIMOLT.
  26. 26. MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK THE CHALLENGE 27 Imports 68% of the needs Domestic production is only 20% of the requirements of breadmaking wheats 2030 to have a deficit 5.6 million tons Myths about the nutritional values ​​of wheat, obesity and effects of gluten.
  27. 27. INCREASE DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF BREADMAKING WHEATS CONSOLIDATE THE WHEAT AS THE BASIS OF A HEALTHY DIET MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK CHALLENGE TO 2025 28

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