Driver I: Food Security

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The first SIANI expert group meeting on China’s global land-investments was held at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) in Stockholm, on 18 October 2011. This report provides a brief summary of the content of discussion and a brief re-cap of the purpose of the expert group. It is primarily intended to “re-fresh” the memory of those that participated, and to give an indication to those that could not participate of what topics were discussed.

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Driver I: Food Security

  1. 1. Driver I: Food Security?
  2. 2. Driver I: Food Security• Chinese Agricultural Trade• Chinese Agricultural Production and Policies• Chinese Agricultural Consumption1
  3. 3. 2Driver I: Food SecurityChinese Agricultural Trade
  4. 4. 3Driver I: Food SecurityChinese Agricultural Trade
  5. 5. FIGURE 2.3 More than half of Chinese agricultural imports were supplied by threecountries during 2005–10TABLE 2.2 China: Agricultural imports by major trading partner, 2005–10 (million $)Partner 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010United States 6,342 7,128 8,620 13,826 13,407 17,834Brazil 3,011 3,803 4,823 8,789 8,442 10,729Argentina 2,967 2,360 5,141 8,346 3,447 5,677EU-27 1,819 1,952 2,621 3,438 3,239 4,719Australia 2,388 2,311 2,596 2,923 2,473 3,885Malaysia 1,461 1,823 3,124 4,223 3,130 3,619Indonesia 934 1,264 1,845 2,684 2,281 3,001Canada 977 630 1,081 1,577 2,488 2,784India 346 1,076 1,212 1,515 814 2,381Thailand 922 1,208 1,212 1,080 1,685 2,268All other 3,824 4,622 4,575 5,305 6,311 9,542Total 24,991 28,178 36,850 53,707 47,717 66,439Source: GTIS, Global Trade Atlas database.Driver I: Food SecurityChinese Agricultural Trade4
  6. 6. United States26%Brazil15%Argentina11%Malaysia7%EU-277%Australia6%Other23%Indonesia5%FIGURE 2.3 More than half of Chinese agricultural imports were supplied by threecountries during 2005–10Source: GTIS, Global Trade Atlas database.3,824 4,622 4,575 5,305 6,31124,991 28,178 36,850 53,707 47,717IS, Global Trade Atlas database.5Driver I: Food SecurityChinese Agricultural Trade
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  9. 9. _____________aDickinson, “China Real Estate Laws, Part I,” n.d.bWang, Tao, and Tong, “Trading Land Development Rights,” 2009, 3.cIbid.TABLE 4.1 Chinese and U.S. rank in world production for selected agricultural products, 2008/09Agricultural productsChina’s rank inworldproductionChina’s share ofworldproductionU.S. rank inworldproductionU.S. share ofworldproductionPercent PercentApples 1 43 2 6Cabbages and other brassicas 1 53 9 2Cucumbers and gherkins 1 64 5 2Eggplants (aubergines) 1 56 21 (a)Garlic 1 77 6 1Onions, dry 1 31 3 5Pears 1 65 2 4Pig meat/pork 1 46 3 11Potatoes 1 18 5 6Rice, paddy 1 28 12 1Sweet potatoes 1 77 12 1Tomatoes 1 26 2 10Watermelons 1 68 5 2Wheat 1 16 3 10Broilers 2 17 1 23Maize (corn) 2 20 1 37Cow milk, whole, fresh 3 6 1 15Sugar cane 3 7 10 2Beef 4 10 1 20Soybeans 4 7 1 35Source: FAO, FAOSTAT (accessed July 27, 2010). 8Driver I: Food SecurityChinese Agricultural Production & Policies
  10. 10. 9Driver I: Food SecurityChinese Agricultural ConsumptionMeat14%Tubers9%Veg. oil8%Grains49%Aquaculture2% Misc.9%Fruit1%Dairy2%Veg.6%Source: FAO, FAOSTAT (accessed August 26, 2010).FIGURE 3.1 Compared with 1987, Chinese daily caloric intake in 2007 had grown significantly andcomprised more meat, fruits, and vegetablesMeat7%Veg. oil5%Veg.3%Oil crop1%Tubers13%Misc. 7%Grains63%1987 20072,9812,524302 percent respectively between 1987 and 2007. Currently, grains and meats constitutethe core of the Chinese diet, accounting for about two-thirds of calories consumed. Thecaloric importance of vegetables is growing both in absolute terms and as a share ofoverall caloric intake. Fruit remains a proportionally small part of the Chinese diet, eventhough calories derived from fruit consumption have increased over time.
  11. 11. TABLE 3.2 China: Per capita consumption of select commodities and population in rural and urban areas, 2004–08Commodity Area 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008KilogramsGrainaRural 219 209 206 199 199Urban 78 77 76 78 n/aVegetables Rural 107 102 100 99 100Urban 122 119 118 118 123MeatbRural (c) (c) 36 32 31Urban 31 33 32 32 31FruitsdRural 17 17 19 19 19Urban 53 57 60 59 54Edible oils Rural 5 6 6 6 6Urban 9 9 9 10 10Fresh eggs Rural 5 5 5 5 5Urban 10 10 10 10 11MillionsPopulation Rural 784 777 770 762 754Urban 512 527 541 556 571Source: USDA, ERS, China Agricultural and Economic Data (accessed date November 2, 2010).aGrains includes tubers.bMeat includes pork, beef, mutton, and poultry.cData not available.d10Driver I: Food SecurityChinese Agricultural Consumption
  12. 12. 11Driver I: Food SecurityChinese Agricultural Consumption304050607080901978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008PercentSource: The World Bank, Data: China (accessed July 26, 2010).FIGURE 3.3 Rural population declined as a share of Chinese total population during1978–2008occur; between 2004 and 2008 the rural population fell by about 1 percent annuallywhile the urban population rose by 3 percent annually.26Today only 40 percent oChinese people are rural farmers, whereas 20 years ago two-thirds were rural andproduced a large portion of their own food. 27Urban and rural Chinese show different food consumption patterns, though the gap i
  13. 13. 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Totalpopulation(inmillions)-1-0.500.511.522.53Populationgrowthrate(percent)FIGURE 3.2 Chinas population is growing while its growth rate fallsSource: OECD, OECD Factbook 2010: Economic, Environmental, and Social Statistics , 2010.India. In 2008, the portion of China’s population that was under 15 years old was threetimes higher than the portion over 65, but by 2030 these groups should be roughly equalin size.25In the future, as the Chinese population ages and declines, the growth in foodconsumption likely will decline as well. Nonetheless, given its massive population, Chinawill remain a major global consumer of agricultural products.12Driver I: Food SecurityChinese Agricultural Consumption
  14. 14. Food-Security argument does not holdObserved trends:• Main import commodities are soybeans, cotton,palm oil, dairy products, hides and skins• Labour intensive/ land-saving production exceptfor what it needs to fullfill the national 95% self-sufficiency policy• Consumption rises and varies depending on aurban/rural divide13

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