• Save
GLOBAL FORESIGHT: LESSONS FROM SCENARIO AND ROADMAPPING EXERCISE ON MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

GLOBAL FORESIGHT: LESSONS FROM SCENARIO AND ROADMAPPING EXERCISE ON MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS

on

  • 1,888 views

Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences, and numerous participants characterise international foresight exercises. In this paper, the authors develop four principles for the ...

Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences, and numerous participants characterise international foresight exercises. In this paper, the authors develop four principles for the design and management of global foresight exercises building on the experience from designing and managing a foresight process in connection with the Intelligent Management FacturingManufacturing Systems (IMS) 2020 project. The authors reflect and discuss against the exercise the suitability of the four principles for global foresight in general. For instance, understanding interconnected innovation systems is crucial for helping participants to position the exercise and their own activities better in the global context; responsiveness towards diversity of stakeholders strengthen commitment and encourage learning and creative problem solving; embeddedness of foresight in existing international networks benefits from existing organisational structures and facilitates for timely and efficiently mobilisation of stakeholder communities; finally, ‘glocal’ impact orientation connects foresight activities to both local and international decision-making structures. Furthermore, the findings indicate that scalable design is one of the key determinants for succesfulsuccessful adaption of foresight to geographical dispersion and numerous participants.

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,888
Views on SlideShare
1,503
Embed Views
385

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0

2 Embeds 385

http://www.impetusolutions.com 383
http://translate.googleusercontent.com 2

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

GLOBAL FORESIGHT: LESSONS FROM SCENARIO AND ROADMAPPING EXERCISE ON MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS GLOBAL FORESIGHT: LESSONS FROM SCENARIO AND ROADMAPPING EXERCISE ON MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS Presentation Transcript

  • The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process Cristiano Cagnin & Totti Könnölä JRC-IPTS & Impetu Solutions cristiano.cagnin@ec.europa.eu totti.konnola@impetusolutions.com
  • Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping processOutline Foresight design Case: IMS2020 Principles for global foresight design and management & lessons learned
  • Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping processForesight design – support to policy cycle FORESIGHT Legitimacy, transparency Understanding of dynamic changes New ideas New policy configurations Risks, opportunities, Policy options, system capabilities recommendations Responsiveness of the system Visions building on Pros & cons of diversity of views decision choices Agenda-setting Policy definition Implementation Evaluation Learning
  • Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping processForesight design – benefits Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future produces changes Insights Relations Attitudes About the future With respect to future Towards the future • Dynamics of change • Networks • Long term thinking • New perspectives • Linkages • Awareness of • Future risks & opportunities • Common ground challenges • Strategic options • Shared perspectives • Foresight & learning • System capabilities • Joint visions culture • Stakeholders views Being better prepared for the future
  • Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping processForesight design – impacts Structured stakeholder dialogue on the future produces changes Insights Relations Attitudes About the future With respect to future Towards the future Changes in society for better policy Strategic implementation intelligence as a base for better 2 3 decisions and Changes in policy process for better decision strategies making 1 4Developing capabilities & foresight culture – enabling people with a variety ofwithBuilding networks – bringing together people from different settings involvedshaping policy making – thus topic to shared foresight activities and toInformingstrategic visions –embark upon collectively understand the challengesDevisingthe future of a anddecisions takenaby key actors in the commissioningbackgrounds to define particular creating their own sense of commitment tobodyopportunities that of longer-term developments agreed directionare follow totheseare more awareforesight participants, and an and how these and objectivescreatevisions among they are liable to confront, and the strategies to liableand their own foresight networksinteract with current policy decisionsthat others might pursue
  • Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping processForesight design – types of dialogue Structured stakeholder dialogue Prescription Diagnosis Prognosis Debating what weUnderstanding where ‘Foresighting’ would like to happen… we are… what could happen… Deciding what should be done…Each type of dialogue calls for:  specific objectives (guiding questions)  specific participants in the dialogue (type and level of participation)  specific methods structuring the debate Need to tailor approach to context, objectives and intended impacts in each phase
  • Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable developmentIMS 2020 objectives Objective: identify relevant research topics and supporting actions to shape the future of intelligent manufacturing through international cooperation  Sustainable manufacturing, products and services  Energy efficient manufacturing  Key technologies  Standardisation  Innovation, competence development and education Expected results  Creation of five roadmaps showing milestones of innovation activities (R&D, management and policy actions) to attain a desired vision
  • Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable developmentIMS 2020 impacts Intended impacts  Inform policy making (strategic intelligence) through the development of strategic visions that shall foster changes in the policy process (further shaping of FP7, design of follow-up FP and shaping of joint calls in the IMS region)  Build new collaborative networks in the IMS region  Develop foresight capabilities both within the consortia and the EU Commission
  • Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable developmentIMS 2020 design Prescription Diagnosis Prognosis Debating what we Understanding ‘Foresighting’ would like to happen where we are… what could happen… Deciding what should be done … Understanding: Exploring: Debating and deciding:  What are the main  What do key stakeholders  How should the region position drivers and variables believe is key to achieve itself depending on how world relevant for IMS? IMS by 2020? manufacturing might evolve?  What has already  How world manufacturing  How to attain desired vision been developed can evolve in the future being adaptive to change? looking at the future of and what would be the RI  What are the RI implications manufacturing, and implications for the IMS for each KAT in achieving the how does it relate to region? defined IMS vision? the current work?  Industry and research  Industry, research and policy  Experts in and outside  Online survey, workshops  Vision building and roadmap the region, partners and interviews with firms’ workshops  Desk research and stakeholders plus scenario  Wiki platform interviews with firms workshops and group work
  • Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable developmentIMS 2020 plan and process
  • Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable developmentIMS 2020 scenarios Desirability and likelihood of each scenario feature to define the IMS vision 2020
  • Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable developmentIMS 2020 roadmaps
  • Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping processPrinciples & lessons learned [1]  Examine contextual systemic properties to identify key objectives and stakeholders, and scope the exercise: mapping, partner Skype calls, firms’ workshops and interviews  Combination of open and collective with close and expert-driven stages enabled partners and collaborators to share a common understanding of the system under analysis and ways in which it can evolve, thus positioning objectives, impacts & design  Prepare to align strategic objectives with operational design and management aspects across the exercise to accommodate diverse stakeholder expectations: meetings  Framework used to shape exercise design and scope with partners and the client  Define alternative ways to bring about diversity and different viewpoints by creating spaces to build mutual understanding and elaborate joint agendas: meetings, workshops and online tools (video/teleconferences, wiki, Groove)  Framework for shaping initial debate enabled online tools and other methods used for building such spaces to be an integral part of the design and was critical for efficient and participatory management of the overall exercise
  • Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping processPrinciples & lessons learned [2]  Ensure multiple communication channels to enable knowledge to flow, interactions to take place and workable agreements to be achieved: online video/teleconferences, face-to-face meetings, workshops, interviews, summer schools, wiki and Groove  Weekly Skype calls critical to take stock of performed activities and define who to take action based on a common understanding of what had to be done and the direction to follow. Meetings dedicated to critical steps such as scenario, vision and roadmap work, which created sufficient basis for consensus & refinements in dedicated online spaces  Build upon both formal and informal networks to combine existing knowledge in novel ways, allow creativity to take place and embed the exercise within its system: Kick-off meeting  Initial framework enabled the inclusion of methods best able to address both formal and informal networks (interviews and mutual learning workshops), and combination of open/collective and closed/expert-driven stages allowed creativity and new knowledge
  • Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping processPrinciples & lessons learned [3]  Solicit ideas about future innovations aligned with the systemic and action-oriented nature of innovation processes beyond less focused future-oriented statements: first online survey (261 worldwide experts outlined innovation ideas linked to KATs and to social, political, industrial, technological and other required changes)  Need for internal debate on nature of innovations and ways to solicit creative future ideas to achieve common understanding and consensus on questionnaire (meetings and Skype calls)  Manage diversity and interactions as well as communication and behavioral aspects in a way clear to all and aligned to strategic and operational decisions: meetings, Skype  Initial framework used to set up stakeholders (diversity) to be involved across the project. However, partners interactions required careful management by returning to previous discussions, clarifying decisions already taken, and showing how elements fit together within the bigger picture to attain intended results and impacts
  • Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping processPrinciples & lessons learned [4]  Ensure expectations are managed in line with objectives and intended results: scenario and vision building were the most critical stages  Partners were not acquainted with foresight and alternative ways of developing scenarios, joint visions and roadmaps. Need for background explanation and to shape exercise in a way partners would feel involved to enable ownership of results. Flexibility allowed first scenario WS to be downscaled to the joint selection of variables for scenario framework and to select snapshots to be developed. These were developed by 4 groups involving all partners, all supported by IPTS through online tools. Once ready, scenarios were shared among partners and collaborators for refinements and to ensure international perspective. Second WS used to develop common vision with partners rotating in chairing and steering discussions with the JRC-IPTS facilitation. This approach fostered participation, motivation and hence ownership of results
  • Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping processPrinciples & lessons learned [5]  Strive to design and reach impacts which are adaptive both in terms of process and results: framework used in kick-off discussion enabled to identify alternatives  Combination of open and collective with closed and expert-driven parallel stages enabled necessary flexibility across operational processes (scenario/vision). Results were adapted for use by the EU Commission (FP7 and following programme) but devised in a way to be used by research (conferences) and industry (involved across the exercise)  Shape a common path to follow outlining resources which should be developed and mobilized both individually and collectively: roadmaps towards a shared vision  Roadmaps show timeframe of needs for RI to be undertaken in collaboration as well as resources and actions to be mobilised by the Commission between 2011 and 2020 to enable the vision to be realised and thus EU manufacturing systems to flourish sustainably. A natural follow up would be to indentify what IMS regions should do both individually and jointly, as well as for further research on participatory management of foresight processes through online tools which are integrated in the project’s design
  • The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development Thank you!