Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences, and numerous participants characterise international foresight exercises. In this paper, the authors develop four principles for the design and management of global foresight exercises building on the experience from designing and managing a foresight process in connection with the Intelligent Management FacturingManufacturing Systems (IMS) 2020 project. The authors reflect and discuss against the exercise the suitability of the four principles for global foresight in general. For instance, understanding interconnected innovation systems is crucial for helping participants to position the exercise and their own activities better in the global context; responsiveness towards diversity of stakeholders strengthen commitment and encourage learning and creative problem solving; embeddedness of foresight in existing international networks benefits from existing organisational structures and facilitates for timely and efficiently mobilisation of stakeholder communities; finally, ‘glocal’ impact orientation connects foresight activities to both local and international decision-making structures. Furthermore, the findings indicate that scalable design is one of the key determinants for succesfulsuccessful adaption of foresight to geographical dispersion and numerous participants.

1. The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Challenge of global foresight: lessons from
IMS scenario and roadmapping process
Cristiano Cagnin & Totti Könnölä
JRC-IPTS & Impetu Solutions
cristiano.cagnin@ec.europa.eu
totti.konnola@impetusolutions.com

2. Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process
Outline
 Foresight design
 Case: IMS2020
 Principles for global foresight design and management & lessons learned

3. Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process
Foresight design – support to policy cycle
FORESIGHT
Legitimacy, transparency
Understanding of dynamic changes New ideas New policy
configurations
Risks, opportunities, Policy options,
system capabilities recommendations Responsiveness
of the system
Visions building on Pros & cons of
diversity of views decision choices
Agenda-setting Policy definition Implementation
Evaluation
Learning

4. Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process
Foresight design – benefits
Structured stakeholder dialogue
on the future
produces changes
Insights Relations Attitudes
About the future With respect to future Towards the future
• Dynamics of change • Networks • Long term thinking
• New perspectives • Linkages • Awareness of
• Future risks & opportunities • Common ground challenges
• Strategic options • Shared perspectives • Foresight & learning
• System capabilities • Joint visions culture
• Stakeholders views
Being better prepared for the future

5. Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process
Foresight design – impacts
Structured stakeholder
dialogue on the future
produces changes
Insights Relations Attitudes
About the future With respect to future Towards the future
Changes in society for better policy
Strategic implementation
intelligence as a
base for better 2 3
decisions and Changes in policy process for better decision
strategies making
1 4
Developing capabilities & foresight culture – enabling people with a variety ofwith
Building networks – bringing together people from different settings involved
shaping policy making – thus topic to shared foresight activities and to
Informingstrategic visions –embark upon collectively understand the challenges
Devisingthe future of a anddecisions takenaby key actors in the commissioning
backgrounds to define particular creating their own sense of commitment to
bodyopportunities that of longer-term developments agreed directionare follow to
theseare more awareforesight participants, and an and how these and objectives
createvisions among they are liable to confront, and the strategies to liable
and their own foresight networks
interact with current policy decisions
that others might pursue

6. Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process
Foresight design – types of dialogue
Structured stakeholder dialogue
Prescription
Diagnosis Prognosis Debating what we
Understanding where ‘Foresighting’ would like to happen…
we are… what could happen… Deciding what should
be done…
Each type of dialogue calls for:
 specific objectives (guiding questions)
 specific participants in the dialogue (type and level of
participation)
 specific methods structuring the debate
 Need to tailor approach to context, objectives and intended
impacts in each phase

7. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development
IMS 2020 objectives
 Objective: identify relevant research topics and supporting actions to shape
the future of intelligent manufacturing through international cooperation
 Sustainable manufacturing, products and services
 Energy efficient manufacturing
 Key technologies
 Standardisation
 Innovation, competence development and education
 Expected results
 Creation of five roadmaps showing milestones of innovation activities (R&D,
management and policy actions) to attain a desired vision

8. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development
IMS 2020 impacts
 Intended impacts
 Inform policy making (strategic intelligence) through the development of strategic
visions that shall foster changes in the policy process (further shaping of FP7, design
of follow-up FP and shaping of joint calls in the IMS region)
 Build new collaborative networks in the IMS region
 Develop foresight capabilities both within the consortia and the EU Commission

9. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development
IMS 2020 design
Prescription
Diagnosis Prognosis Debating what we
Understanding ‘Foresighting’ would like to happen
where we are… what could happen… Deciding what
should be done …
Understanding: Exploring: Debating and deciding:
 What are the main  What do key stakeholders  How should the region position
drivers and variables believe is key to achieve itself depending on how world
relevant for IMS? IMS by 2020? manufacturing might evolve?
 What has already  How world manufacturing  How to attain desired vision
been developed can evolve in the future being adaptive to change?
looking at the future of and what would be the RI  What are the RI implications
manufacturing, and implications for the IMS for each KAT in achieving the
how does it relate to region? defined IMS vision?
the current work?  Industry and research  Industry, research and policy
 Experts in and outside  Online survey, workshops  Vision building and roadmap
the region, partners and interviews with firms’ workshops
 Desk research and stakeholders plus scenario
 Wiki platform
interviews with firms workshops and group work

10. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development
IMS 2020 plan and process

11. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development
IMS 2020 scenarios
Desirability and likelihood of each scenario feature to define the IMS vision 2020

12. Business framework to manage change & lead networks towards sustainable development
IMS 2020 roadmaps

13. Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process
Principles & lessons learned [1]
 Examine contextual systemic properties to identify key objectives and stakeholders,
and scope the exercise: mapping, partner Skype calls, firms’ workshops and interviews
 Combination of open and collective with close and expert-driven stages enabled
partners and collaborators to share a common understanding of the system under
analysis and ways in which it can evolve, thus positioning objectives, impacts & design
 Prepare to align strategic objectives with operational design and management aspects
across the exercise to accommodate diverse stakeholder expectations: meetings
 Framework used to shape exercise design and scope with partners and the client
 Define alternative ways to bring about diversity and different viewpoints by creating
spaces to build mutual understanding and elaborate joint agendas: meetings,
workshops and online tools (video/teleconferences, wiki, Groove)
 Framework for shaping initial debate enabled online tools and other methods used for
building such spaces to be an integral part of the design and was critical for efficient
and participatory management of the overall exercise

14. Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process
Principles & lessons learned [2]
 Ensure multiple communication channels to enable knowledge to flow, interactions to
take place and workable agreements to be achieved: online video/teleconferences,
face-to-face meetings, workshops, interviews, summer schools, wiki and Groove
 Weekly Skype calls critical to take stock of performed activities and define who to take
action based on a common understanding of what had to be done and the direction to
follow. Meetings dedicated to critical steps such as scenario, vision and roadmap work,
which created sufficient basis for consensus & refinements in dedicated online spaces
 Build upon both formal and informal networks to combine existing knowledge in novel
ways, allow creativity to take place and embed the exercise within its system: Kick-off
meeting
 Initial framework enabled the inclusion of methods best able to address both formal
and informal networks (interviews and mutual learning workshops), and combination of
open/collective and closed/expert-driven stages allowed creativity and new knowledge

15. Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process
Principles & lessons learned [3]
 Solicit ideas about future innovations aligned with the systemic and action-oriented
nature of innovation processes beyond less focused future-oriented statements: first
online survey (261 worldwide experts outlined innovation ideas linked to KATs and to
social, political, industrial, technological and other required changes)
 Need for internal debate on nature of innovations and ways to solicit creative future
ideas to achieve common understanding and consensus on questionnaire (meetings
and Skype calls)
 Manage diversity and interactions as well as communication and behavioral aspects in
a way clear to all and aligned to strategic and operational decisions: meetings, Skype
 Initial framework used to set up stakeholders (diversity) to be involved across the
project. However, partners interactions required careful management by returning to
previous discussions, clarifying decisions already taken, and showing how elements fit
together within the bigger picture to attain intended results and impacts

16. Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process
Principles & lessons learned [4]
 Ensure expectations are managed in line with objectives and intended results:
scenario and vision building were the most critical stages
 Partners were not acquainted with foresight and alternative ways of developing
scenarios, joint visions and roadmaps. Need for background explanation and to shape
exercise in a way partners would feel involved to enable ownership of results.
Flexibility allowed first scenario WS to be downscaled to the joint selection of variables
for scenario framework and to select snapshots to be developed. These were
developed by 4 groups involving all partners, all supported by IPTS through online
tools. Once ready, scenarios were shared among partners and collaborators for
refinements and to ensure international perspective. Second WS used to develop
common vision with partners rotating in chairing and steering discussions with the
JRC-IPTS facilitation. This approach fostered participation, motivation and hence
ownership of results

17. Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process
Principles & lessons learned [5]
 Strive to design and reach impacts which are adaptive both in terms of process and
results: framework used in kick-off discussion enabled to identify alternatives
 Combination of open and collective with closed and expert-driven parallel stages
enabled necessary flexibility across operational processes (scenario/vision). Results
were adapted for use by the EU Commission (FP7 and following programme) but
devised in a way to be used by research (conferences) and industry (involved across
the exercise)
 Shape a common path to follow outlining resources which should be developed and
mobilized both individually and collectively: roadmaps towards a shared vision
 Roadmaps show timeframe of needs for RI to be undertaken in collaboration as well as
resources and actions to be mobilised by the Commission between 2011 and 2020 to
enable the vision to be realised and thus EU manufacturing systems to flourish
sustainably. A natural follow up would be to indentify what IMS regions should do both
individually and jointly, as well as for further research on participatory management of
foresight processes through online tools which are integrated in the project’s design

18. The 4th International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
Business framework to manage change & lead
networks towards sustainable development
Thank you!