Foresight at the Estonian Development Fund


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  • Saare lause Ikt 2002 viide MK prob – sektorprogrammi tarbeks puuduvad prioriteedid
  • Foresight at the Estonian Development Fund

    1. 1. Foresight at the Estonian Development Fund Kristjan Rebane May 6, 2009
    2. 2. Preview into Topics today1. Foresight2. Development Fund3. White Paper4. EST_IT@2018
    3. 3. Why foresight? Foresight is a structured way to dream about future“Innovation is the ability of individuals, companies, andentire nations to create their desired future” John Kao,Innovation Nation, 2007
    4. 4. Why Government Foresight? Government is often obsessed by short-term and ‘reactive’ attitudes. It is affected by the pressure of public opinion and the media who demand quick solutions to problems. One of the greatest challenges for government is to balance short-term pressures and long term objectives. Many areas of public policy, such as ageing, health, R&D, education, infrastructure, and the environment, can only be addressed adequately over the long term.
    5. 5. What is our understanding of the future? Future is something that happens as a result of global megatrends.  Strategy proposition for a small country is therefore to predict, detect and identify coming changes, be agile and quick to react to them and through that adapt and capture the opportunities and benefits. Future is something that is made by all of us, i.e. we can decide what the future looks like.  Strategy proposition for a small country is to identify the key platforms, networks, actors and processes which have the biggest influence on the future. Finding ways to influence those processes will allow us to have an impact on the future. It is easier not only to predict changes but also influence the nature, direction and pace of the changes and thereby be able to capture the opportunities and
    6. 6. How foresight relates with policy cycle? Foresight National Strategic Agenda intelligence setting strategy Sector Policy policies evaluationDesign Implementation Performance strategies evaluation Evaluation Instrument Impact set-up evaluation 7 Implementation
    7. 7. Foresight adds intelligence to strategic decisions
    8. 8. Foresight is not prediction nor research
    9. 9. Estonian Development Fund as the national foresight institution Established by Estonian Parliament in 2006 Based on Finnish SITRA model: state venture capital combined with national foresight activities Foresight activities + division started in late 2007 (6 people currently) Besides the Estonian Development Fund, no other foresight actors or activities yet in Estonia Our foresight focus is economy and related themes
    10. 10. Our foresight work in 2008/09
    11. 11. Strong focus on dissemination and linkages to policy-making• Public forums for spreading foresight results + media work• Annual high-level Development Forum to discuss economic situation and perspectives• Workshops and seminars within foresight projects• Monthly Coffee Morning: raising single topics for wider discussion• Weekly Innovation Labs: open small-circle first-hand discussion• Master classes for decision-makers (both government and business)• Annual report and speech to Estonian Parliament
    12. 12. Building the foresight culture in Estonia• Our aim is two-fold: 1) Increasing demand – raising awareness of foresight among decision-makers 2) Increasing supply – training and advising other actors to undertake foresight projects.• Events to introduce the nature and methods of foresight (Coffee Mornings)
    13. 13. White Paper
    14. 14. White Paper for the Parliament• Stemmed from the perfect crisis: current financial and econmic crisis in the world combined with the structural crisis of Estonian economy• Prepares ground for the long term growth startegy• But today meets the need to give short term answers• E.g today Estonia receives just 1/3 of the currency inflows from what fed the growth during the “good times”
    15. 15. Strategic Steps addressing...• Capital • Targeted motivation packages for the investors in the areas of structural change • “High-level representative“ to attract investors • Lower taxation of dividend income • Tax exemption on stock investements for private people similarily to the enterprises • Increase the rate of capitalisation of private and venture capital investors with public or semi-public (fund)investments that invest in unlisted enterprises
    16. 16. Strategic Steps addressing...• Export • Direct approach and targeted motivational packaes to current major exporting enterprises • More intensive governemnt sales and support structure on new markets• Labour • In enhancing the labour force or developing the competencies special emphasis on increasing entrepreneurship • Increase the avaialbility of retraining • Attracting talents or top specialists with intertnational experience to Estonia • Favouring entrepreneurial initiatives, start-ups • Allowing temporary tax reliefor tax breaks to companies that maintain or create new jobs • Reducing taxes generally on labour costs
    17. 17. EST_IT@2018
    18. 18. + EST_IT@2018 background and reasoningICT• has applicability in all sectors of economic and social life• has importance in increasing economic productivity as well as export. -• is attributed for more than half of the productivity growth in OECD countries On the other hand, ICT sector • is fragmented, with low profitability, and unmet demand from domestic market • does not have strong specialisation • has shortage of skilled labour • export volumes remain modest. 20
    19. 19. Problem Questions• What are the strengths of Estonian ICT?• Which ICT technologies have the greatest potential for future growth?• In which areas does Estonia stand to gain most from the global technology trends?• Which emerging technologies can offer new growth opportunities for the Estonian economy?• What to emphasize to increase competitiveness, efficiency and wellbeing? 21
    20. 20. Goal & ScopeGoal:A shared vision about the opportunities for wider usage and development of ICT in increasing the Estonian competitiveness (export), public and private sector effectiveness and wellbeing of the population.Scope• Geographic – Estonia• Areas – technologies matched with implementation areas (where ICT sector is in focus as enabler)• Timeframe – 10 year 22
    21. 21. Foresight objectives• Identify technologies and areas of importance• Analyse their growth and contribution potential for Estonia• Develop visions for alternative futures• Develop from that an action and role map for the participating actors• Increase cooperation and common understanding about the development direction 23
    22. 22. Target Groups 24
    23. 23. General OutputsProcess outcomes Product outcomes a. Agreement about a. Focus areas common goals b. Vision(s) b. Creating ownership c. Action and role map for a shared vision c. Stronger Formats a. Print and web report networking b. Events and press releases c. Articles d. Web environment 25
    24. 24. Phase-specific OutputsPhase 1 outcomes Phase 2 outcomes a. Areas / a. Vision(s) of the technologies for futures further research b. Action and role map 26
    25. 25. THANKS! Kristjan Rebane Information Society Expert of Foresight Division kristjan.rebane@arengufond.eeSee more on our website: