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Robinson Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050


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IFPRI Policy Seminar "Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050" by Sherman Robinson

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Robinson Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050

  1. 1. General Equilibrium Simulations for the Foresight Future of Food and Farming Project <br />Sherman Robinson<br />December 2010<br />
  2. 2. December 2008January 2011<br />Foresight Project Overview<br />Phase 3:<br />Report Production<br />Phase 1: <br /> Defining Challenge<br />Phase 2:<br /> How to Address <br />Challenge<br /><ul><li>Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion
  3. 3. Driver Review Publication: The Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
  4. 4. Five Challenges
  5. 5. Drivers in the Food system
  6. 6. Projected demand for food
  7. 7. Projected supply of food
  8. 8. Regional Reviews
  9. 9. State of science reviews
  10. 10. Workshops
  11. 11. Africa workstream
  12. 12. Modelling initiative with IFPRI & IDS</li></ul>Release on January 25, 2011<br />
  13. 13. Globe general equilibrium model to supplement IFPRI results<br />Multi-country, trade-focused, CGE model using the GTAP global data set<br />Simulates the operation of national economies operating in global markets<br />Solves for market clearing commodity prices and quantities (production and trade), both nationally and globally, given supply and demand in all markets<br />Comparative static simulations<br />3<br />
  14. 14. Selected scenarios<br />Drought in NAFTA, China, and India<br />With and without agricultural export restrictions in exporting countries in response to rising prices<br />Doha failure: general increase in trade protectionism<br />Increased meat demand in India and China<br />Fossil fuel scarcity: climate change mitigation and/or peak oil<br />4<br />
  15. 15. Drought: Largest price impacts where drought occurs<br />5<br />China, India, NAFTA<br />
  16. 16. … Drought plus export limits changes trade flow volumes in different directions<br />6<br />
  17. 17. Doha failure and more protection: Food prices rise everywhere<br />7<br />
  18. 18. Increased India and China meat demand: Small effects on crop prices<br />8<br />
  19. 19. … and crop production.<br />9<br />
  20. 20. Fossil Fuel Scarcity: Welfare gains for exporting countries<br />10<br />
  21. 21. Oil scarcity versus energy taxes: Indirect effects are small<br />11<br />
  22. 22. Oil scarcity versus taxes: Changes in world food crop prices are small<br />12<br />
  23. 23. Conclusions from CGE analysis<br />International trade is important <br />Ameliorates unequal distribution of supply-side shocks (e.g., droughts and climate change)<br />Increases in protectionism amplify stresses on the food system by increasing prices and encouraging production in less suitable areas<br />Increases in demand for livestock products in large countries such as China and India lead to modest increases in world food prices, with free trade<br />Protectionist response leads to bigger price effects<br />13<br />