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Foresight Methods and Practice: Lessons Learned from International Foresight Exercises


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Foresight Methods and Practice: Lessons Learned from International Foresight Exercises

  1. 1. Foresight Methods and Practice Lessons Learned from International Foresight Exercises Dr. Totti Könnölä, CEO Insight Foresight Institute Foresight Methodology Workshop Mineral Intelligence Capacity Analysis Project Organised by La Palma Research Centre Date: 10-11 May/2017 Las Palmas, Gran Canaria, Spain
  2. 2. KEY MESSAGES 1. Foresight – for the whole policy cycle 2. Foresight designs – always customised 3. Foresight tools – never the first step 4. To conclude – engage the 'clients' 2
  3. 3. Innovative Entrepreneurial AdaptiveDirectional Climate change & circular economy Digitalisation, industry 4.0, AI, bio-nano-info- cogno convergence Inequility & platform economy Social media & collaborative economy Conflicts & post-truth politics Volatility, uncertainty, complexity & ambiguity (VUCA) Our mission INNOVATION ECOSYSTEM A RESPONSE TO ‘VUCA WORLD’ “We orchestrate the expertise in entrepreneurial innovation ecosystems to spark and drive structural changes, enhance resilience and direct society towards social, economic and environmental sustainability.”
  4. 4. Activation & Alignment • Idea & Policy Labs • Challenge Competitions • Inspirational Speakers and Seminars • Communication and Outreach • Advocacy Insight & Foresight • Sectoral and Thematic Studies • Evaluation and Impact Assessment • Horizon Scanning, Technology Maps & Scouting • Online Idea Management • Scenarios & Roadmaps Strategy & Governance • Strategy and Planning • Policies, Guidance and Certification • Governance Structures and Design for Innovative and Entrepreneurial Programmes, Units, Organisations and Ecosystems Training & Mentoring • In-House Executive Training • Blended Intensive Courses • Tutorials and webinars • Mentoring • Entrepreneur in Residence Programming & Implementation • Innovation and Intrapreneurship Programming • Impact Investment • Acceleration and Venturing • R&D Commercialisation IFI Ecosystem Profiler©, a systematic diagnosis of your efforts to manage the ecosystem. The bundle of IFI Solutions, applied systematically to upgrade and transform your ecosystem. ECOSYSTEM CAPABILITIES & IFI SOLUTIONS 4
  6. 6. FORESIGHT’S CONTRIBUTION TO POLICY CYCLE Policy definition Ex-ante impact assessment Policy implemen- tation Evaluation Agenda setting Policy options & new ideas Ownership Legitimacy, transparency New policy configurations Responsiveness of the system Foresight Learning Prospective considetations
  7. 7. ADDRESSING THE FUTURES Joseph Voros, A generic foresight process framework
  8. 8. CHILE – ANTOFAGASTA MAIN OBJECTIVES OF COOPERATION Principal objective of cooperation between VTT and CICITEM is to improve the human capacities in CICITEM as a facilitator of the regional innovation activities, especially in terms of knowledge and technology management. The project proposal consists of three main objectives of cooperation: 1. Capacity building in the field of institutional leadership and knowledge management, innovation culture, and innovation capabilities. 2. Self-sustained innovation capacity at CICITEM 3. Capability to create strategic vision the regional innovation activities and facilitate joint innovation activities in the mining cluster
  9. 9. ANTOFAGASTA FORESIGHT CONTRIBUTIONS 9Ref. M. Dufva et al. / Futures 73 (2015) 100–111
  10. 10. VTT MINERAL ECONOMY INNOVATION PROGRAMME Towards Circular Mineral Economy • Multi-technology competences enabling new innovations– e.g. hydrometallurgy + powder metallurgy + life cycle assessment + business models and foresight together • Sustainable design for closing the loop with material efficient and low energy solutions: valuable element recovery, residue utilization, critical raw materials substitution, 3 D manufacturing (powder based materials), remanufacturing, reuse and recycling, we develop new solutions from secondary raw materials (out of waste). • Digital materials and processes (the systemic modelling factory approach), new business models of mineral based materials. 10
  12. 12. 0 20 40 Technology Roadmapping Structural analysis (e.g. MICMAC) Essays Key Technologies Stakeholder Mapping Backcasting Citizens Panels Megatrend Analysis Delphi Environmental Scanning Interviews Trend Extrapolation Questionnaire / Survey SWOT Analysis Brainstorming Futures Workshops Other methods Expert Panels Scenarios Literature Review Common Methods in RegionalForesight METHODS
  13. 13. Solutions Roadmaps Scenarios Drivers Signals 1. Search 1. Create 2. Curate 3. Evaluate 1. Cluster drivers 2. Structure scenarios 3. Develop scenarios 4. Define success scenarios 1. Reorganize drivers 2. Create solutions 3. Evaluate solutions by scenarios 4. Select solutions 1. Analize future markets 2. Identify partners 3. Define actions 13 Ref. Insight Foresight Institute EXAMPLE – INTEGRATION OF FORESIGHT METHODS
  14. 14. Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future
  15. 15. Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future
  16. 16. Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future Analysis of Issues Mean-oriented analysis Relevance > Novelty > Probability (means) Variance-oriented analysis Novelty > Relevance > Probability (variance) Rare event oriented analysis Inverse probability > Novelty > Relevance (means) ü 100% issues score best independent of the used criteria preferences ü 50% issues that score well, but are sensitive to criteria preferences
  17. 17. The case study: EIT-IPTS foresight platform Project design CASE: Web 2.0 for foresight
  18. 18. CASE: Challenge of global foresight: lessons from IMS scenario and roadmapping process
  19. 19. Policy and regulation (aligned and coordinated) Decisions (bottom-up and long-term) Collaboration (global multi-level cooperation) Values & Behaviours (collective) Partnerships (high connectivity (proactive & vertical or with diverse stakeholders) and long- term) Product & Services Life Cycle and Performance: design, production, delivery and disposal (breakthrough innovations & high performance) Technology (breakthrough technologies) Localisation (cooperation across value chain globally) Markets (new) Standardisation, Safety, Quality and Ethics (CSR) (voluntary and beyond law applied to products, services & processes) Knowledge Generation and Management (tools and systems to transform tacit knowledge into explicit and organisational) Education (flexible, provided by different actors and fostered by firms) Curricula (personalised) Competence and Skills (new) Learning (modern and flexible) Energy (renewable; intelligent) Natural Resources & Materials (e.g. raw materials and water) (new or alternative and efficient use & management (i.e. recycle, reuse, etc) Environmental Footprint (positive) DRIVERS IMS 2020 Política Gobernanza Industrial Internacional Co-operación de I+D+i Conocimiento Sociedad
  20. 20. SCENARIO DESIGN OPTIONS 1 2 3 4 5 A B C D + + + + + + + + + ++ ++ - - -- - - - - - --
  21. 21. IMS 2020 Scenarios
  22. 22. § Rapid and adaptive user-centred manufacturing which leads to customised and 'eternal' life cycle solutions § Highly flexible and self-organising value chains which enable for different ways of organising production systems, including related infrastructures, and reduces the time between engaging with end users and delivering a solution § Sustainable manufacturing possible due to cultural change of individuals and corporations supported by the enforcement of rules and a proper regulatory framework co-designed between governments, industries and societies IMS 2020 Vision
  23. 23. 23 IMS Final Roadmap Process
  24. 24. 3. FORESIGHT TOOLS – NEVER THE FIRST STEP The following tools provide examples of methods and software IFI applies in its assignments. 24
  25. 25. IFI TECHNOLOGY MAPS Technology Map can be customized from broad market landscapes to microscopic detail, helping you to make the right claims. It augments traditional cognitive IPR and technology mapping processes with powerful statistical, visual and On-Line tools. How it works ­ Client defines strategic objectives and technologies for mapping ­ Explore visualization the landscape and your position therein, and receive our analysis of the nature of innovation dynamics ­ Access result on-line from anywhere to refine results and for ready analytics and graph For Who and Why ­ Start-Ups. Convince potential investors and collaborators what you’re innovation and IPR is really worth. ­ R&D Management. Foresight that you’re investment and R&D programme is not heading for an dead end, and optimize patenting effort. ­ Large Companies. Align your business lines with your patents, and start monitoring that you’re new inventions match strategic priorities. ­ R&D Funding Bodies. Idenfity most potential and best strategies for R&D&I programming and instruments or evaluate what’s accomplished ­ M&A. Document, match and visualize rapidly how IPR portfolios overlap or augment each other. ­ Investors and Finance. Analyse industry trends and firm potential. Technology Map’s are always tailored per client specification, and they are delivered with with SaaS On-Line tools. 25In partnership with Tecmine.
  26. 26. IFI FORESIGHT PLATFORM IFI Foresight Platform provides a robust online platform for a structured stakeholder and expert online engagement in foresight projects. User interface ­ Submission, commenting and assessment of emerging issues, innovation ideas, challenges etc. Backend ­ Advanced filtering of inputs and graphical presentation and interactive analysis of results. The SaaS platform is always customised to the client needs. In partnership with Orchidea. 26
  27. 27. IFI RPM SCREENING Robust Portfolio Modelling (RPM) Tools managed by the IFI experts allow interactive analysis of the multi-criteria assessed issues. Such analysis help identify issues that are interesting not only with respect to one but many criteria, for instance: ­ Relevance ­ Novelty ­ Feasibility 27 Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010)
  28. 28. IFI ONLINE SURVEYS 28 IFI Online Surveys practice relies on the commercial solutions of online survey providers. The robust solutions allow intuitive user-friendly surveys and their efficient management, incl. flexible exportation of results for further analysis. The IFI has extensive experience in the design and architecture of surveys to reach the optimal balance between user experience and research insights for strategy work.
  31. 31. KEY MESSAGES 1. Foresight – for the whole policy cycle 2. Foresight designs – always customised 3. Foresight tools – never the first step 4. To conclude – engage the 'client' 31
  32. 32. Insight Foresight Institute (IFI) Avda. Concha Espina, 8-1 Dcha. 28001 Madrid, Spain “With us, achieve game-changing strategies, implement them effectively and reach out to have impact”
  33. 33. MANAGING DIRECTOR Totti Könnölä Background: Impetu Solutions, EIT, UP Comillas, IE Business School, JCR-IPTS, VTT DIRECTOR OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT David Cano Background: TECOPY, IDOM DIRECTOR OF FINANCE & OPERATIONS Miguel Maté Background: Telekom Austria WE CONNECT OUR COMMUNITY WITH THE ECOSYSTEM TO SPARK TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE High-level Advisory Board •Renowned global leaders and thinkers Innovation Council •Recognised senior experts and mentors Expert Network •Experts engaged in projects Strategic Alliances •Strategic partner organisations OPEN COMMUNITYLEADERSHIP 33
  34. 34. Ben Martin (UK) •SPRU, Univ. of Sussex •(University of Cambridge) Charles W. Wessner (US) •Georgetown Univ. •(National Academy of Sciences) Dan Breznitz (CA) •University of Toronto, Munk School of Global Affairs •(Georgia Tech, MIT) Dirk Pilat (NL/FR) • OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation • (OECD Committee on Industry, Innovation and Entrepreneurship) Emma Fernández (ES) •Advisor, Corporate Leader •(Indra) Gonzalo León (ES) •Universidad Politécnica de Madrid •(Ministry of Education and Culture, Science and Technology Ministry) Göran Roos (SE/AU) •Value Add and Ind. Growth, Econ. Dev. Board in Adelaide •(Innovation Performance Australia,VTT) John Kao (US) •Institute for Large Scale Innovation •(Global Advisory Council on Innovation of WEF, Harvard Business School) Ken Guy (UK) •Wise Guys, Ltd •(OECD, EC JRC-IPTS, Technopolis) Kurt Deketelaere (BE) •LERU •(Flemish Gov., Univ. Of Leuven) Maria Bejuméa (ES) •Startup Spain (South Summit) •(Serial entrepreneur) Mariana Mazzucato (IT/US) •SPRU, Univ. Of Sussex •(INNOGEN, The Open University) Ray Garcia (US) •Buoyant Capital •(University of Pisa, MIT Media Lab, University of Arizona) Riel Milller (CA/FR) •UNESCO •(xperidox, OECD) Ron Johnston (AU) •Australian Centre of Innovation •(Australian Commission for the Future) HIGH LEVEL ADVISORY BOARD THRIVES OUR STRATEGIC ALIGNMENT AND PARTNERSHIPS 34