Presented at the 4th International Conference on Carbon Accounting 25th November 2011 www.icarb.org

1. The Use of Ecological and Carbon Footprint Analysis in Policy Making using the REAP model Dr Robin Curry. Director. SRI Research. Senior Research Fellow. Institute for a Sustainable World (ISW)@QUB [email_address]

2. Acknowledgements A Project Team comprising SRI@EnviroCentre, Queens University Belfast and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Funding by Department of the Environment for Northern Ireland via the Community Waste Innovation Fund (CWIF)

4. Background/Timeline/ Methods Northern Limits. A Resource Flow Analysis and Ecological Footprint of Northern Ireland. (2004) Island Limits. A Material Flow Analysis and Ecological Footprint of Ireland (2008) Northern Visions: Footpaths to Sustainability. (2008) Curry, R, Maguire, C. Simmons, C, Lewis, K. (2011), The use of Material Flow Analysis and the Ecological Footprint in regional policy making: application and insights from Northern Ireland. Local Environment. 16. 2. 165 — 179 Curry, R and Maguire, C. (2011). The use of Ecological and Carbon Footprint Analysis in regional policy making: application and insights using the REAP model. Local Environment. DOI:10.1080/13549839.2011.615306

5. First Steps Towards Sustainability. (2006)

6. Drivers and context: Towards Sustainability Vision Our Vision is of Northern Ireland as a one planet economy Targets Stabilise the Northern Ireland Ecological Footprint by 2015 and reduce it thereafter Reduction of GHG emissions by 25% below 1990 levels by 2025 By 2008 produce a Sustainable Consumption Action Plan for Northern Ireland

7. Curry, R. Maguire, C.M., and McClenaghan, A. (2008) Northern Visions: Footpaths to Sustainability.

8. www.sei.se/reap The Resources and Energy Analysis Programme (REAP) software model Methodology: Environmentally extended input-output analysis

10. Benchmarking performance and setting the baseline (2003)

11. Analysing what makes the difference

12. Regional Policy Framework Departmental Strategies and Plans

13. Over three-quarters of Northern Ireland’s Ecological Footprint (or 80% of all household carbon emissions) are related to three consumption categories – housing, travel and food . High Level Results We developed scenarios focused on the policy opportunities related to them.

14. Business as Usual

16. Housing – comparing different policy options Ecological Footprint Carbon Footprint Reduction from BAU: Energy supply efficiency -14% Renewables and energy mix – 21% CSH Level 6 2016 – 28% Retrofit 2018 – 29% Retrofit Max 2018 – 38% Reduction from BAU: Energy supply efficiency -15% Renewables and energy mix – 24% CSH Level 6 2016 – 30% Retrofit 2018 – 31% Retrofit Max 2018 – 41%

17. Housing – comparing different policy options

19. Food and health a win-win scenario Ecological Footprint Carbon Footprint Reduction from BAU: Green Farming - 0.8% Efficient Processing – 0.3% Less waste – 14% Lower carbon diet – 5% Reduction from BAU: Green Farming - 2% Efficient Processing – 2% Less waste – 6% Lower carbon diet – 11%

20. Food – relative impact of different diets Ecological Footprint Carbon Footprint

22. Transport – comparing different policy options Reduction from BAU: Car efficiency – 7% Car occupancy – 21% Travelling less – 39% Modal shift – 11% Modal shift no growth – 34% Ecological Footprint Carbon Footprint Reduction from BAU: Car efficiency – 9% Car occupancy – 22% Travelling less – 40% Modal shift – 15% Modal shift no growth – 36%

24. Sustainable Footpath? Ecological Footprint Carbon Footprint Reduction from BAU: Good Practice – 15% Sustainable Footpath – 34% Reduction from BAU: Good Practice – 14% Sustainable Footpath – 35%

25. Priorities for ongoing development: lessons from other methodologies? (MFA and LCA) Standardised Guidance; Published, peer-reviewed inventories for sources and conversion factors; Collective assessment of methods and development of guidance on combining methods and indicators; and Hybrid approaches.

26. Standardised Guidance Eurostat: Economy-wide material flow accounts and derived indicators. A methodological guide (2001). ISO 14040:2006 LCA Principles/International International Life Cycle Data System (ILCD) (2010) Integration with System of National Accounts

27. Published, peer-reviewed inventories for sources and conversion factors REAP uses a database of coefficients and conversion factors for embodied energies, energy carriers, hidden flows, yield factors, embodied CO2 emission factors, transport, CO2 emission factors and LCA factors.

28. Collective assessment of methods and development of guidance on combining methods and indicators? Hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (HLCA) (Process LCA, sectoral input output and environmental account data) (Methods review to support the PAS for the calculation of the embodied greenhouse gas emissions of goods and services. Minx, J., Wiedmann, T., Barrett, J. and Suh, S., 2007)

29. Thank you for listening [email_address] [email_address]