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Satish Kashyap At Renew Tech India 2010

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This presentation was given at Renewtech India 2010. Topic - Climate Policy.

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Satish Kashyap At Renew Tech India 2010

  1. 1. Climate Policy - Global & Domestic Satish Kashyap March 9, 2010 Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 1
  2. 2. Agenda • Global climate policy – Copenhagen – Post 2012 scenarios • Domestic policy – Renewable energy certificates Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 2
  3. 3. Climate value 307% In USD 154% 60% 70% 92% 20% 34% Source: General Carbon Analysis Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 3
  4. 4. Copenhagen - Expectations • Long-term commitment on climate change • Improve CDM • REDD • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in CDM • Hot Air Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 4
  5. 5. Copenhagen Accord • Common but differentiated responsibilities • Limit on temperature rise • Comprehensive adaptation program • Peaking year • Quantification • REDD • Funding Source: UNFCCC Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 5
  6. 6. Other points discussed at Copenhagen • CDM process reforms – Improved transparency – Appeal process – Capacity building (DOE, methodology etc.) • REDD+ – Funding earmarked • Hot air – No deal on hot air Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 6
  7. 7. Summary Pre 2012 Post 2012 Demand for offsets Supply of offsets Cost of generation Carbon finance ability CDM process Carbon market participants Positive Negative Neutral Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 7
  8. 8. Post 2012 – EU ETS • EU commitment as part of Phase III – 20% path to 2020 – 30% path to 2020 where global agreement is reached • CER demand upper limit of 270 Mt per year (industrial demand) till 2012 will increase to – ~40 Mt per year under 20% path – ~120 Mt per year under 30% path • Comitology process – Further restrictions type of CERs and geography – Projects from LDCs post 2012 Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 8
  9. 9. Post 2012 - US • US may take over from Europe as the hub of global emissions trading • Import of international offsets under the two schemes – Waxman Markey bill ~ 800 Mt/yr of international offsets – Kerry Boxer bill ~ 500 Mt/yr of international offsets • The bills introduces a discount rate on international offsets of 1.25 – 1.25 CERs or other international offsets would be worth 1 US domestic unit – For CERs this is closer to 1.13 CERs per tonne due to US short vs. metric tonne conversion • Based on WCI, RGGI and other local initiatives – Lower US pricing expectations – Focus likely on high-volume, low-cost projects, such as industrial gas projects or forestry Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 9
  10. 10. Commitments given on Jan 31, 2010 • China – Energy intensity target of 40% - 45% of 2005 level – Increase RE share to 15% • Indonesia – 26% reduction by 2020 – Peat land management, REDD is a large share • India – Energy intensity target of 20% - 25% • Brazil – 36 – 39% reduction over 1990 level – Amazon & Cerrado deforestation (60% or 600 Mt) • Russia – 15- 20% of 1990 level Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 10
  11. 11. National Action Plan for Climate Change • Added impetus for creating instruments to facilitate RE growth • RE purchase must be 5% of grid and increase by 1% for 10 years • Reservation for Solar (0.25%) • Authority to issue tradable certificates • RECs experience in US & Japan • Framework expected to start operation in April 2010 Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 11
  12. 12. Framework • Buyers – DISCOMs – Open Access Users – Captive generators • REC registry & exchange platform • CERC and SERC roles • Penalty Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 12
  13. 13. Climate. Value. Delivered. Satish Kashyap satish.kashyap@general-carbon.com March 9, 2010 Climate. Value. Delivered. www.general-carbon.com 13

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