Making Emissions Inventories
Comparable and Useful
Dr. Sebastian Carney
Carbon Captured Ltd

Agenda
• Options
• PESTLE
• MoSCoW
• Past Inventories
• Focus
• Let’s Look at Scotland
• Energy plans
• Scrumcasting

Options
• Do nothing
• Estimate
• Use bottom up data

PESTLE
• Political – Be first
• Economic – Potential for savings
• Social – Local requirements
• Technological – Potential for implementation
• Legislative – Requirement to produce
• Environmental – Measure progress

MoSCoW
• Must haves
– An ordered list of what is in and what is out
– The emissions factors used
– The data sources
– Recognition of risks
– Descriptive statistics
– The Activity data

MoSCoW
• Should haves
– Consistent Reporting Format
– How the data sources have been measured
– Uncertainty of emissions factors and data sources
– Executive summaries
– Different representations for different audiences.
– Analysis
– Energy Potential Data
– Empowerment – internalize it, it really isn’t too
difficult.

MoSCoW
• Could haves
– Energy Potential Data
– Driver data – age of housing stock
– Economic & demographic statistics
– Mapping of Emissions Sources
– Comparisons with other areas
– Identification for the reasons for the size of
emissions – eg Athens vs Oslo

MoSCoW
• Won’t have
– Solutions
– Measurements – rather they are estimations
– Perfect comparability

Past Inventories
60,000.00
50,000.00
40,000.00
30,000.00
20,000.00
10,000.00
0.00
Level 3
Level 2
Level 1

Electricity Emissions Factors
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Athens
Brussels
Frankfurt
Hamburg
Helsinki
Ljubljana
Madrid
Napoli
Oslo
Rotterdam
Stockholm
Paris
Porto
Stuttgart
Turin
Veneto
Electricity Emissions Factor
Electricity Emissions Factor

Focus
• Think about
– where we are going
– rather than where we have been
• On what we know
• What changes we can implement
• What does a 80% reduction refer to?
– Total emissions
– 2050 is an indicator rather than a scientific
baseline

Let’s look at Scotland
• Emissions inventory
• Energy potential
• Independence
– IPCC Reporting Standards
– Impact on rest of UK

Scotland’s Energy Potential
• 25% of Europe’s tidal potential
• 10% of Europe’s wave potential
• 25% of Europe’s off shore wind potential

Energy Plans
• Avoid basic errors
– Consumption and Demand
– Peak Demand
• Electrification of heat and transport
– Upkeep/maintenance, life span
– Future value of money (eg payback periods)
– Wider systems context – network capability
– Risk attitude of intermittency
– Human Capital
– Robbing ‘Peter to pay Paul’
– Include the system outside of the region
– But remember a transition can not be managed!

Consumption and Demand

UK Demand
Brattle Model, GB Electricity Demand – realising the resource, Brattle Group, 2012

Retrofitting Example
• 99% Reduction by 2050, mostly by 2040
– Mostly through efficiency
– So let’s say every home to 80% (heat energy)
• 6 ‘Professional Retrofitters’ – Builders
• 6 weeks
• 1 project manager per ten homes
• 10 days redecorating
• 1 day removal and reinstall
• +20% tolerance for illness/slippage
• 25 days holiday a year
• 1 million people

Scrumcasting - GRIP
• Similar to backcasting
• Product focused – Energy Scenario
• Bring together users and suppliers
• A referee
• Identify interfaces
• Have a focus – end goal
• Identify roles, responsibilities, potentials, errors,
obstacles, tolerances, scales, timeframes.

An example session

A Selection of Scenarios

A Selection of Scenarios

To Summarise
• Establish what you can do – focus on end goals
• Be mindful of potential future applications
(PESTLE)
• Engage stakeholders in development
• Present data consistently (& uncertainty)
• Be clear in energy plans – finance, systems
• Use to build capacity
• Scrumcast!

Questions
Contact:
sebastian.carney@carboncaptured.com
Phone:
0161-225-1028 / 07830-121407