Dr Iain Staffell
ICARB Energy Backcasting Workshop, Edinburgh
© Imperial College Business School
Vision for a Renewable Scotland:
Are We All Better Together?
12th March 2014

2
Wind

3
Wind Capacity
• 10 GW currently on
the system
• 10 GW with approval
• 30 GW of ‘super’
offshore in planning
• In 2020:
– 10 GW in Scotland
– 13 GW in England & Wales

4
Wind Capacity
• 10 GW currently on
the system
• 10 GW with approval
• 30 GW of ‘super’
offshore in planning
• In 2030:
– 20 GW in Scotland
– 30 GW in England & Wales

• First three weeks of January 2020
• Demand in Britain
• Net of 23 GW wind
5
Demand Net of Renewables
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan
Wind
Net
(GW)

• First three weeks of January 2020
• Demand in Scotland
• Net of 10 GW wind
6
Demand Net of Renewables
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan
Wind
Net
(GW)

7
Geographic Diversity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 5-Jan 9-Jan 13-Jan
UK

8
Geographic Diversity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 5-Jan 9-Jan 13-Jan
UK
Ireland

9
Geographic Diversity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 5-Jan 9-Jan 13-Jan
UK
Ireland
France
Avg

10
Geographic Diversity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 5-Jan 9-Jan 13-Jan
UK
Ireland
France
Germany
Avg

11
Geographic Diversity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 5-Jan 9-Jan 13-Jan
UK
Ireland
France
Germany
Norway
Avg

12
Split
Markets

• Separate English & Scottish markets from 1990
• They became BETTA in 2005
• UK generation mix in 2013:
13
Setting the Scene
Coal
Gas
OCGT
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Sc:
E&W:
(14 GW)
(76 GW)(90 GW)
Source: Platts WEPP
Nuclear

• Would get different wholesale electricity prices
in England and Scotland
• Prices might to be lower in Scotland
• Prices might be more volatile in Scotland
• Together, these might reduce the amount of
capacity built in Scotland
14
What Might It Mean?

• Supply curve for Great Britain:
15
What Might It Mean?
Wind
Nuclear
Coal
Gas CCGT
Gas OCGT
£0
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
£60
£70
£80
0 20 40 60 80
MarginalCost(£/MWh)
Available Capacity (GW)

• Supply curves for Scotland, England & Wales
16
What Might It Mean?
£0
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
£60
£70
£80
0 10
MarginalCost(£/MWh)
Wind
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
CCGT
Gas
OCGT
0 20 40 60
Available Capacity (GW)

£0
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
£60
£70
£80
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 GB E&W SC
– Simulating 2013 gets us close to historic prices (£53/MWh)
– Simulating 2020 suggests prices are 36% higher (£73/MWh)
• Mix of fuel prices (20% rise) and carbon price (350% rise)
17
Wholesale Electricity Prices
(£/MWh)
£0
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
£60
£70
£80
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 GB E&W SC
Source: APX Historic Prices

18
Wholesale Electricity Prices
(£/MWh)
£0
£10
£20
£30
£40
£50
£60
£70
£80
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 GB E&W SC
Source: APX Historic Prices
– English & Welsh prices rise by £2 per MWh.
– Market splitting would reduce Scottish wholesale
prices by £12 per MWh. (£73 –> £61)

• Around 60% of residential bill is due to wholesale
price, assume other elements stay constant.
• Residential prices in 2020:
– 18.7 p/kWh in GB
– 19.0 p/kWh in England
– 16.9 p/kWh in Scotland
• Average Scottish household bill falls by £51 per year
– 10% reduction
– Fuel poor households may spend 0.5–1%
less of their income on energy
19
Consumer Electricity Prices
Source: The Scottish Government – Fuel Poverty Evidence Review

20
New
Technologies

21
2000 ~ 2015 ~ 2030
2000 2014 2030
Wind…………
400 MW
17 GW
25 x
17 x
10 GW
300 GW
50–70 GW?
Solar
5 MW
1.4 GW
500x
70x
2.7 GW
100 GW
10–50 GW?
Marine
500 kW
250 MW
18x
2x
9 MW
500 MW
1–5 GW
Grid Scale
Batteries
<1 MW?
100s of MW
?
?
?
UK:
World: