How Moore’s Law is Influencing Design - from Roadmap 2013

HOW MOORE’S LAW IS
INFLUENCING DESIGN
John Maeda
Rhode Island School of Design

Wednesday, November 13, 13

G I G AO M 2 0 1 3 / J O H N M A E DA W I T H B E C K Y B E R M O N T


1991


design
technology
1991


E Y E C A N DY


E Y E M E AT


EMPTY

1 9 9 8 AT L A J O L L A


“ YO U R W O R K I S B E A U T I F U L . . .
EMPTY
B U T . . . I T I S S O . . . E M P T Y . . .”

1 9 9 8 AT L A J O L L A


E MP T Y
o o
E M P T Y T O E M PAT H Y


o

AAAAAH
AAAAH
AAAH
AAH
E M P A TH Y
o o


o

AAAAAH
AAAAH
AAAH
AAH
E M P A TH Y
o o
o
for other people



STICKS

BLOBS
BLOCKS

A DA P T E D F RO M DA N ROA M / 2 0 1 2


E M OT I O N S

BLOBS
BLOCKS



E M OT I O N S

BLOBS

ACTIONS



E M OT I O N S

ACTIONS

R E L AT I O N S


E M OT I O N S

ACTIONS

WORLD OF
T H E B O DY
R E L AT I O N S
TRADITIONAL DESIGN


E M OT I O N S
WORLD OF
THE MIND
HUMAN-COMPUTER INTERFACE

ACTIONS

WORLD OF
T H E B O DY
R E L AT I O N S
TRADITIONAL DESIGN


E M OT I O N S
WORLD OF
THE MIND

ACTIONS

WORLD OF
T H E B O DY
R E L AT I O N S
TRADITIONAL DESIGN

WORLD OF
PEOPLE
INSTITUTIONS


E M OT I O N S
WORLD OF
THE MIND

ACTIONS

WORLD OF
T H E B O DY
R E L AT I O N S
TRADITIONAL DESIGN

“physical / natural”

WORLD OF
PEOPLE
INSTITUTIONS


E M OT I O N S
WORLD OF
THE MIND

ACTIONS

“digital / cognitive”

WORLD OF
T H E B O DY
R E L AT I O N S
TRADITIONAL DESIGN


WORLD OF
PEOPLE
INSTITUTIONS


E M OT I O N S
WORLD OF
THE MIND

ACTIONS

“digital / cognitive”

WORLD OF
T H E B O DY
R E L AT I O N S
TRADITIONAL DESIGN


WORLD OF
PEOPLE
INSTITUTIONS

“social / community”


THREE KINDS OF DESIGN


COGNITIVE

PHYSICAL



COGNITIVE

PHYSICAL

O R G A N I Z AT I O N A L



RED BURNS HAD IT RIGHT (1925 - 2013)


“ T H I N K O F T E C H N O L O G Y A S A V E R B , N OT A N O U N .
I T P RO V I D E S T H E TO O L S , C R E AT I V E P E O P L E P R O V I D E I M A G I N AT I O N .”

RED BURNS HAD IT RIGHT (1925 - 2013)


art,


art,


art-

DESIGN

T E C H N O L O G Y + A RT =

DESIGN
. . . I T ’ S E V E RY W H E R E

D E TA I L S

,

,, , ,,, ,, ,, ,,,
, ,, , ,,
,, , ,E,TA,L S,,,
,
,, I ,, ,
D,
,, , , ,
,,, , , , , , , ,,
,


M O O R E ’ S L AW I N F L U E N C E S

DESIGN

YES. BUT IT DIDN’T BEFORE ...

1971 - 2002

2,300

1971

AV E R A G E N U M B E R O F T R A N S I S TO R S P E R I C


1971 - 2002

225,000,000

1971 1972 1974 1978 1979 1982 1985 1989 1993 1995 1997 1999 2000 2001 2001 2002



1971 - 2002

225,000,000

log plot

2.6 billion

1971 1972 1974 1978 1979 1982 1985 1989 1993 1995 1997 1999 2000 2001 2001 2002



2011

1968 - 2004
$ 10

1968

C O S T P E R T R A N S I S TO R


1968 - 2004
$ 10
1

cost plot

0.1
0.01
0.0001
0.00001
0.000001
0.0000001

1968

1972

C O S T P E R T R A N S I S TO R


1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

G I S T O F M O O R E ’ S L AW


C A PA B I L I T Y

COST

G I S T O F M O O R E ’ S L AW


M I T D AY S


1990

M I T D AY S


1995

2000

1990

Tricycle

M I T D AY S


1995

2000

2002

M I T D AY S


2003

M I T D AY S


2002

2004

M I T D AY S


2003

2002

2005

M I T D AY S


2004

2003

2002

2002

U B I Q U I TO U S C O M P U T I N G


2002 —

A N D T H E N T H E R E WA S L I G H T !


CHEAPER AND BETTER


LESS
TECH

MORE
TECH
BETTER!

CHEAPER AND BETTER


LESS
TECH

MORE
TECH
BETTER!
BETTER?

CHEAPER AND BETTER


MORE
TECH
BETTER?
W I T H T E C H N O L O G Y, M O R E I S G E N E R A L LY B E T T E R


M OO R E ’ S L AW
= MOORE IS BETTER
W I T H T E C H N O L O G Y, M O R E I S G E N E R A L LY B E T T E R


BUT WITH GOOD DESIGN
MORE ≠ BETTER
=

W I T H D E S I G N , L E S S I S G E N E R A L LY B E T T E R


WITH GOOD DESIGN
LESS = MORE



WITH GOOD DESIGN
HUH? L E S S = M O R E
HUH?



MORE

T H E L AW S O F S I M P L I C I T Y / 2 0 0 5


LESS

MORE

LESS

Which cookie will a child choose?


MORE

Which cookie will a child choose?


MORE

LESS

Which pile of work will a child choose?


LESS

Which pile of work will a child choose?


want more

(enjoyment / power / mastery)



want less

(work / boredom / frustration)

design


technology

design

technology

?

desire


utility

technology
desire

?

utility
I F

I

J U S T WA I T

I T W I L L


B E

1 8

M O O R E

M O N T H S ,
U S E F U L !

technology
desire
C U Z

I F

I

J U S T

I T W I L L

?

H AV E

M O O R E ,

B E A . M A . Z I N G !

utility
I F

I

J U S T WA I T

I T W I L L


B E

1 8

M O O R E

M O N T H S ,
U S E F U L !

technology
design


W I T H T E C H N O L O G Y, M O R E ( M O O R E ) I S A LWAY S B E T T E R .
B U T M O O R E N O L O N G E R G OV E R N S H OW W E F E E L .
D E S I G N I S N E E D E D TO F I N D T H E B A L A N C E B E T W E E N M O R E A N D L E S S .

design
technology


design


IS THERE A DESIGN “BUBBLE”?

design


design

N O. B U T T H E R E ’ S A D E S I G N “ B O W L I N G B A L L .”

> Thank you!


design

COGNITIVE

> Thank you!

PHYSICAL

design
O R G A N I Z AT I O N A L


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