Using megatrend assessments in pharma in order to raise the relevance of the CI department within your organization

How megatrends are affecting the pharma industry, and how the CI function can use megatrends to increase its strategic relevanceFrederic De MeyerSenior CI InvestigatorI.S.I.S. – Integrated Strategic Information Services, Inc. – www.isisglobal.comOffice Switzerland: +41.41.455.2522 www.isisglobal.com

Aim of this presentation Raising awareness of the multitude of trends affecting the pharma business, either directly or indirectly Learn how to use these insights to increase the CI function to the highest strategic level within your company www.isisglobal.com

let’s start with a challenge:what do these have in common? www.isisglobal.com

here’s a hint… In 2002 Barbie lost its Until 2006 Coca ColaFord almost got out of market predominance was boycotted GM’s Hummer saw business in the early to a new competitor multiple times in India sales drop 85% from1900’s for sticking to it who just entered this due to its water 2006 to 2009standardized products market the year mismanagement before practices www.isisglobal.com

sometimes long-term shifts canhave short-term consequences! www.isisglobal.com

before we start… what are megatrendsexactly? one hurricane is not a trend, it’s an event... an increasing number of hurricanes in the US is a trend, not necessarily a megatrend a worldwide increase in number and intensity of hurricanes would be a megatrend and the consequences might trigger new (mega)trends www.isisglobal.com

Outline• …a brain teaser as a starter• Long-term trends affecting the pharma industry in the coming decade • The most obvious ones… • Trends currently forming, outcome uncertain • Some speculation…• How to use these insights to increase the strategic relevancy of the CI function in your company • Setting up a megatrend exercise within your company • Using megatrends to assess your competitive positioning for the long run www.isisglobal.com

we currently track +40 megatrends closely DEMOGRAPHIC TECHNOLOGY GEOPOLITICS• aging population • ubiquitous computing • power shift to East• increasing world population • disintermediation • globalization 3.0• genY/Milennials • crowdsourcing • trade blocs and unions• urbanization/geographic • social Media • rising middle classmobility • augmented Reality • the Market State• multi-ethnic society • SaaS, DIY• gap rich-poor • cloud Computing • 3D SUSTAINABILITY • enhanced humans • global warming • scarcity of resources BUSINESS TRENDS • energy dependency • biodiversity• shared value (CSR) • green technologies• social Entrepreneurship SOCIETY• social Business • dematerialization• open source/ innovation (digitization) CONSUMER• decentralization • talent shortage • mass customization• gamification • boundary blurring • radical transparency• virtualization • have’s and have not’s (digital • social buying• disruptive business models divide) • sustainable/ethical buying www.isisglobal.com

…but not all of them are relevant for pharmaTrends with an obvious Early signs of times to Somewhat more impact come? speculative…• aging population • informed patients • market State• climate change • customization • enhanced humans (GRIN,• global mobility • open source pharma genetic engineering,• new migration patterns • DIY health bioprinting, …)• urbanization • shared value • health ‘as a service’ www.isisglobal.com

…let’s start with the ones that we can clearly see, but from which the full extent is yet unknown Trends with an obvious Early signs of times to Somewhat more impact come? speculative… • Aging population • informed patients • Market State • Climate change • customization • Enhanced humans • Global mobility • open source pharma • new migration patterns • DIY health • urbanization • shared value • health ‘as a service’ www.isisglobal.com

the patient has limitless ways to be as knowledgeable as the doctorDo you have a direct touch with the ultimate patient? www.isisglobal.com

(mass) Customization is the new paradigm Is this potentially a new source of revenue? www.isisglobal.com

Open source pharma challenges the current business R&D model Should you embrace or fight this new model? www.isisglobal.com

Shared value and social entrepreneurship can unleash new innovations Dynamics of changes vs social environment Social Core Entrepreneursproduct Threat area Social Innovation Comply Corporateperipheral (legislation, foundations standards, …) Imposed by Own community initiative(Frederic De Meyer) How to combine profitability with social responsibility? www.isisglobal.com

New market for DIY health(9000 Apple apps for personal health care) is the doctor still your ‘route to market’? www.isisglobal.com

The underlying transformation for Health Care providers institutions TRUST reactive pro-active ATTITUDE community (based on a chart from Across consultancy) How do you redefine your position in this new paradigm? www.isisglobal.com

…some speculative trends and their consequences for pharmaTrends with an obvious Early signs of times to Somewhat more impact come? speculative…• Aging population • Informed patients • Market State• Climate change • Customization • Enhanced humans• Global mobility • Open source pharma• new migration patterns • DIY health• urbanization • Shared value • Health ‘as a service’ www.isisglobal.com

The market state, an imperative or a delusion?Will government become your key partner in the future? www.isisglobal.com

Human enhancement as an alternative to medicine?Who will be your key partners in the future (technology, insurers, …)? www.isisglobal.com

Are these trends applicable to Europe? www.isisglobal.com

Where tomorrow’s pharma innovation will come from• Aging population• Global warming • New ‘go-to-market’• Urbanization • New markets• New migration • New customers • New partners• DIY Health • New channels• Informed patients • New ways of• Open sourcing influencing patients• Shared value • New vision/mission• Customization • New organization• Health ‘as a service’ • New business model • More efficient R&D• Market State• Enhanced humans • More successful future Do you take the lead or do you wait for disruptive models to emerge? www.isisglobal.com

how the CI function could use megatrends assessment to increase its impact on business strategy www.isisglobal.com

here’s a simple process to assess the impact ofmegatrends on your company: #1 identify Mega trends Megatrends to discuss #2 discuss Megatrends internally #3draw conclusions and recommendations #4 Communicate results internally and externally

but the devil is in the detail… www.isisglobal.com

guidelines for selecting trends to assess in your company Mega trends • don’t select (exclusively) trends with an obvious impact on your industry or company… the most successful ideas for innovation will come from elsewhere; • get your ideas and selection from a combination of internal (survey) and external (consultants) input; • generate 50 ideas for megatrends, select 20 to discuss.

guidelines for discussing trends in your company • Invite people with different background, functions and seniority • follow a discussion template -for instance Osterwalder’s business model canvas: • 5-6 persons per theme, 30-60 min. per trend; • also look at anti-trends; • keep it fun !

guidelines for drawing conclusions from the trendsdiscussions • segment the trends so as to show which ones need action or close monitoring • map the way megatrends impact your customer segments and stakeholders

guidelines for communicating the conclusions of themegatrends exercise • Set up different documents dependent on target group and aim:

How to assess your long-term competitiveness and short-term actions needed 1. List of 25 metrics that indicate long-term competitiveness (industry dependent) 2. Weigh the topic in terms of importance/relevance to the industry 3. Do a neutral benchmark (1-5 scores) based on public sources and info www.isisglobal.com

How to assess your long-term competitiveness and short-term actions needed (cont.) Future readiness benchmark company <YOU> 4. Draw conclusions, set Demographics recommendations Strategy Sustainability YOU In this case: Top overall 1. Preparedness for performer geopolitical trends is New Business Average of 6 currently your key Consumers models companies competitive differentiator. This needs to be kept! Geopolitics 2. Top performer overall has introduced key disruptive business model and customer innovation. You need to study which of these you can leverage profitably for your business www.isisglobal.com

Overall conclusion• Investigating long-term trends has short-term relevance: » Ideas for innovation » Find competitive differentiators » Refine strategy for future success• There is an easy, structured way to get the maximum value out of a megatrend exercise;• By taking the lead of this exercise, the CI function would elevate its relevance in the strategic direction of the company. www.isisglobal.com

The future can not be predicted… but it can be made ! (ancient African saying) prepare your business now, and make sure CI has the leading role in it!Frederic De Meyer, Senior CI Investigator, I.S.I.S.- frederic@isisglobal.comMarc Limacher, Managing Director, I.S.I.S. – marc@isisglobal.comEurope (Switzerland): +41.41.455.2522 U.S.: +1.650.298.8555www.isisglobal.com Lucerne – San Francisco – Princeton (NJ) – Shanghai – Bangalore – Miami www.isisglobal.com

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Using megatrend assessments in pharma in order to raise the relevance of the CI department within your organization

by Frederic De Meyer

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Using megatrend assessments in pharma in order to raise the relevance of the CI department within your organization Presentation Transcript