IPSOS presentation to IABC by Tim Moro, SVP IPSOS North America, Calgary March 19 2009. Uploaded and shared with permission from Mr. Moro by Doug Lacombe, MBA.
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IPSOS presentation to IABC Calgary March 19 2009
1. IABC/Calgary Luncheon
- Turbulent Times and the Canadian Mindset
Tim Moro
Senior Vice President
Ipsos North America
March 19, 2009
2. The Small Print…
• Ipsos Reid has done no partisan polling for a political party since 1986…
• We do $170 million of market research in Canada of which 2% is for Governments
(federal and provincial, all of which are on the public record)…
• We do $350 million of market research in North America and are part of the Ipsos
group of market research companies spanning 45 countries with annual revenues
in excess of $1.6 billion…
• We are the media agency of record of CanWest News and Global TV in Canada,
The McClatchy News Company in the United States, and Reuters International…
Our Calgary office – which is quickly approaching its 20th anniversary – provides
•
full service research services through a local staff of 25 and the full resources of
Ipsos North America.
2
7. But What About Canadians?
- Some important context for business
communicators
8. The Old & New Worlds of
Communication*
*Acknowledgement to Neville Hobson.
Presentation given to FEIEA 50 Conference, Brussels, Belgium October 2005
9. The Old World
Influencers
Investors Potential employees
MESSAGES
Customers Employees
Prospects
Competitors
Partners
Press/Analysts
9
10. The New World
Influencers
Investors Potential employees
MESSAGES
Customers Employees
Prospects
Competitors
Partners
Press/Analysts
10
11. Communication Approaches
New World Old World
Engage & Participate Transmit
Advocate Preach
vs
Influence & Persuade Command & Control
Informal &
Formal & Instructive
Conversational
Build Community Tell Your Audience
11
13. North American & Global Views on Corporations
% Agree
% Agree
“Major corporations are having a good influence on the way things are going in my country”
Overall 55%
High Singapore 87%
Canada 49%
Low France 28%
39%
US
“Large companies have too much influence on the decisions of government”
Overall 74% Argentina
High 85%
& France
80%
Canada
Japan &
Low 57%
Poland
82%
US
Continued …
Survey respondents are the most involved population in each country defined by internet access, voting
behavior, instigating political, economic and social discussions, signing petitions and purchasing based on
company’s ethical, social or environmental reputation. (n=1,000 adults in each country). Margin of error: 3.1
13
percentage points per country. October 2007
14. North American & Global Views on Corporations
continued
% Agree
% Agree
“Government should have complete access to the private information of corporations doing
business in their country”
Overall 58%
High Turkey 80%
Canada 65%
Low Poland 30%
55%
US
“Our government should be more aggressive in regulating the activities of national and
multinational corporations”
Overall 72%
High Mexico 86%
77%
Canada
Low Japan 42%
67%
US
Survey respondents are the most involved population in each country defined by internet access, voting behavior,
instigating political, economic and social discussions, signing petitions and purchasing based on company’s ethical,
social or environmental reputation. (n=1,000 adults in each country). Margin of error: 3.1 percentage points per
14
country. October 2007
16. Methodology
22,000 online surveys. 22 countries.
• Global @dvisor Semi annual study fielded in April & November.
• N = 1,000 completes per country.
• 95% confidence level, +/- 3.1% margin of error.
• 75% of world’s GDP covered:
– US, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, South Korea, China,
Japan, Australia, Russia, India, Czech Republic, Poland, Turkey,
Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Spain,
and Great Britain.
• Internet Representation balanced by age, gender, city population, and
education levels, with minor added weights applied.
• Sample audience is global elites known as the “Intelligaged™”
– Upper 1/3 income with a college level degree
•Intelligaged™ is a trademark used by Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs, Inc. (quot;Ipsos Public Affairsquot;) and shall not be reproduced or used
in any manner without the prior written consent of Ipsos Public Affairs.
16
16
17. Economic Meltdown
Average of all countries
(Very Good + Somewhat Good)
100%
90%
80%
70%
54%
60%
50%
55%
43%
40%
31%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08
A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [INSERT COUNTRY]?
17
17
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
18. Economic Meltdown
All drop except LATAM; Canadians really come back to earth
(Describe Economy as Very Good + Somewhat Good)
100%
87%
80%
80%
72%
71%
70%
61% 68%
62%
60%
56%
51% 53%
50%
48% 48% 48%
47%
45%
40% 40% 39%
34%
38% 35%
32% 32%
30%
22%
20% 19%
11%
0%
Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Nov-08
LATAM USA APAC European Union G-8 Countries Bric
BRIC = key emerging markets of
Brazil, Russia, India, China
A3. Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [INSERT COUNTRY]?
18
18
Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
19. Household Spending - % Cutting Back
Total 72%
87%
South Korea
84%
Argentina
Turkey 84%
83%
Mexico
81%
France
80%
China
The United States 80%
77%
Great Britain
76%
Brazil
76%
India
Australia 75%
Italy 75%
73%
Russia
73%
Japan
Canada 70%
Belgium 70%
68%
Poland
68%
Spain
The Czech Republic 59%
59%
Germany
19
J3. Given the current state of the global economy, have you and your family had to cut back on your household spending recently? 19
20. Specific Cut Backs
Average of all countries vs Canada
76%
Entertainment 81%
73%
Vacations 79%
72%
Luxury items 78%
59%
Clothing 61%
53%
Energy consumption
61% All Countries
Canada
47%
Gasoline/driving
60%
41%
Groceries
48%
33%
Cell Phone
27%
23%
Cable TV
25%
11%
Education
6%
20
20
J4. What are the specific things that you and your family are cutting back on these days? Base: respondents who have cut back in J3
25. Overall Views on the Budget
Based on what you have seen, read or heard, would you say that the budget, overall, is:
24%
27%
22%
Good and you'd symbolically 25%
give it two thumbs up 32%
11%
16%
18%
17%
12%
Bad and you'd symbolically
13%
give it two thumbs down 18%
23%
19%
58% Total (n=1027)
BC (n=146)
56%
AB (n=95)
Neither good nor bad and 65%
SK/MB (n=74)
you'd symbolically just 63%
ONT (n=363)
shrug your shoulders 50% QC (n=265)
66% ATL (n=84)
65%
25
Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009
26. Perceived Personal Impact of the Budget
Based on what you have seen, read or heard about the budget, do you think this budget…
23%
22%
26%
Will personally help you 24%
26%
15%
27%
7%
8%
6%
Will personally hurt you 5%
7%
5%
9%
51%
51%
38%
Neither 47%
46%
67% Total (n=1027)
49% BC (n=146)
19% AB (n=95)
19% SK/MB (n=74)
30% ONT (n=363)
Don't know/Refused 24% QC (n=265)
21%
ATL (n=84)
13%
15%
26
Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009
27. Tax Cuts – How Would You Spend the Money?
One of the things in the budget announced Tuesday is a tax cut. Say that the tax cut worked out to be $1,000 for you and your family, which
of the following would you spend it on:
Pay down debt and credit cards 49%
26%
Putting money into savings
Putting money into tax-sheltered
vehicles like RRSP's, RESP's, 13%
new savings accounts
Spend on a big ticket item
7%
like a car or appliance
Put it towards or buy a house 6%
None of the above 12%
27
Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009
28. Do you agree that …
Agree Summary table (strongly/somewhat agree)
1) The Harper Government is committed to
61%
doing what it takes to get Canada's
economy back on track
2) This budget gives me the confidence to 32%
start spending again
3) The size of the deficit announced Tuesday
shows that the Harper government doesn’t 53%
know what it's doing when it comes to
managing spending
4) The opposition coalition would have
presented a better budget for these tough 39%
economic times than the
Harper government has
5) Helps the people most vulnerable to the 51%
current economic situation
28
Base: N=1.027 MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points Fielded Jan 27 – 29, 2009
30. Tracking Views On Housing as an Investment
“Do you feel that buying a house or condominium is currently a very good investment, a good investment, not a very good investment, or not a good
investment at all?”
Very good/Good investment Not a very good/Not a good investment at all
90% 90%
87%
86% 85% 85%
84% 82%
79%
77%
76%
72%
25%
19% 17% 17% 17%
15%
14% 13%
12% 12% 10% 10%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2009: 2026 respondents; 2008: 3023 respondents; 2007: 2404 respondents; 2006: 2158 Respondents; 2005: 2,001 Respondents; 2004: 2,000 Respondents; 2002
30
& 2003: 1,500 Respondents; Previous years: 1,200 Respondents
31. The Best Time to Buy A Home
Do you think it makes more sense to buy a house now, or wait until next year?
2009 2008 2007
58%
52% 52%
48% 48%
42%
Buy now Wait until next year
31
2009: 2026 Respondents; 2008: 3023 Respondents; 2007: 2404 Respondents
32. Views On the Local Economy, Jobs
& Personal Finances
February 2009
33. Views On the Local Economy - Today
“Compared to six months ago, do you feel that your local economy is stronger or weaker today?”
Weaker Same Stronger
Somewhat weaker Much weaker Much stronger Somewhat stronger
Feb ‘09
33% 22% 11% 1 6% 7%
54%
Jan ‘09 9% 6% 15%
27% 22% 5%
59%
% Weak
BC AB SK/ ON QUE ATL
MB
Feb ‘09 31% 29% 18% 54% 29% 42%
33
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
34. Views On the Local Economy – In Six Months
“Six months from now, do you feel the economy in your local area will be stronger or weaker?”
Weaker Same Stronger
Somewhat weaker Much weaker Much stronger Somewhat stronger
Feb ‘09
26% 23% 3 2 19% 21%
54%
Jan ‘09
31% 25% 6% 2 14% 16%
51%
% Strong
BC AB SK/MB ON QUE ATL
Feb ‘09 21% 27% 15% 24% 12% 24%
Jan ‘09 14% 17% 18% 18% 11% 27%
NET +7 +10 -3 +5 +1 -3
34
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
35. Perceived Job Security
“Compared to six months ago, are you more confident about your job security for you, your family, or for others?”
Less Confident More Confident
8%
Feb ‘09
46%
29%
Jan ‘09
54%
% More Confident
SK/
BC AB ON QUE ATL
MB
Feb ‘09 8% 13% 9% 9% 6% 7%
Jan ‘09 21% 34% 41% 23% 36% 29%
NET -13 -21 -32 -14 -30 -22
35
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
36. Job Loss Anxiety
“Are you, or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off?”
All Canadians
All Canadians
40
35
35
32
(Percentage of respondents)
30
26
25
25
22
21 21
20 20
20
19 19
18 18 18
17 17 17 17
16 16 16 16
15 15
15
14 14
10
5
0
/O 08
Ja 7
M 08
A7
08
Se 5
Fe 8
Fe 09
02
03
Fe 4
90
93
95
97
99
00
01
A8
M5
N 06
9
N 08
Fe 5
A6
Ja 8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
'0
'0
'
19
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
Se Aug
ug
pr
pr
ay
ay
n
b
b
b
ct
p
ov
n
b
ov
pt
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
36
37. Job Loss Anxiety – By Region
“Are you, or is anyone in your household worried about losing their job or being laid off?”
21%
(+8)
18%
10%
(+4) 7%
(-2)
(-9)
27%
22%
(-4)
(+7)
37
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
38. Your Current Personal Financial Situation
“Compared to six months ago, is your personal financial situation …?”
Stronger Stable Weaker
Feb ’09 17% 50% 34%
26% 50% 22%
Jan ‘09
% Stronger
SK/
BC AB ON QUE ATL
MB
Feb ‘09 14% 22% 12% 16% 18% 12%
Jan ‘09 25% 32% 20% 22% 29% 28%
NET -11 -10 -8 -6 -11 -16
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009 38
39. Your Personal Financial Situation – In Six Months
“Do you feel that six months from now, your financial situation will be stronger or weaker?”
Weaker Same Stronger
Much stronger Somewhat stronger
Somewhat weaker Much weaker
Feb ‘09 9% 30% 35%
9% 8% 1
55%
Jan ‘09 5% 19% 24%
10% 8% 2
66%
% Stronger
SK/
BC AB ON QUE ATL
MB
Feb ‘09 38% 46% 39% 40% 24% 22%
Jan ‘09 23% 26% 17% 30% 18% 19%
NET +15 +20 +22 +10 +6 +2
39
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
40. Comfort In Making Major Household Purchases
“Compared to six months ago, are you comfortable in making major household purchases such as a home or a car?”
More Comfortable No Change Less Comfortable
Feb ’09 10% 41% 48%
21% 18% 60%
Jan ‘09
% More Comfortable
SK/
BC AB ON QUE ATL
MB
Feb ‘09 9% 15% 7% 10% 10% 12%
Jan ‘09 17% 25% 25% 20% 24% 17%
NET -8 -10 -18 -10 -14 -5
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009 40
41. Confidence In Investing
“Compared to six months ago, are you confident to invest for the future, save money for retirement/children's education, etc?”
More Confident No Change Less Confident
Feb ’09 10% 39% 51%
28% 13% 55%
Jan ‘09
% More Confident
SK/
BC AB ON QUE ATL
MB
Feb ‘09 13% 13% 10% 10% 6% 11%
Jan ‘09 33% 32% 29% 25% 31% 23%
NET -20 -19 -19 -15 -25 -12
41
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
42. Time to Invest in the Stock Market?
No Yes
31%
65% Feb ‘09
35%
64% Jan ‘09
% Yes
SK/M
BC AB ON QUE ATL
B
Feb ‘09 40% 47% 30% 36% 26% 32%
42
Base N=1,000 Margin of Error + / – 3.1 percentage points Fielded February 2009
44. Desired Timing of Action on Climate Change
To what extent do you agree with the following statement:
“Serious action on climate change should wait until the recession is behind us.”
13%
12%
20%
Strongly agree 8%
14%
10%
12%
32%
27%
37%
Somewhat agree 36%
33%
32%
21%
34%
43% % Disagree:
32%
Somewhat disagree •Total: 55%
34%
32% •BC: 61%
32% Total (n=1003)
•AB: 43%
39% BC (n=132)
•SK/MB: 56%
21% AB (n=101)
18% SK/MB (n=69)
•ONT: 52%
11% ONT (n=375)
•QC: 57%
Strongly disagree 21% QC (n=238)
20% •ATL: 67% ATL (n=88)
25%
28%
44
Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009
45. Climate Change Vs. Higher Deficits
To what extent do you agree with the following statement:
“Canada should take serious action on climate change right now, even it if means higher deficits.”
19%
16%
% Agree:
11%
Strongly agree 25% •Total: 57%
18%
•BC: 53%
21%
30% •AB: 42%
37% •SK/MB: 52%
36%
•ONT: 55%
31%
Somewhat agree 27% •QC: 65%
37%
•ATL: 68%
44%
38%
31%
29%
38%
Somewhat disagree 34%
33%
29% Total (n=1003)
24% BC (n=132)
12% AB (n=101)
18% SK/MB (n=69)
20% ONT (n=375)
Strongly disagree 15% QC (n=238)
12%
ATL (n=88)
6%
8%
45
Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009
46. Climate Change Vs. Jobs
To what extent do you agree with the following statement:
“It is more important for the Canadian government to focus on jobs than climate change at the moment.”
30%
34%
% Agree:
33%
Strongly agree 27% •Total: 71%
32%
•BC: 75%
26%
16% •AB: 81%
42% •SK/MB: 66%
41%
•ONT: 75%
48%
Somewhat agree 39% •QC: 66%
42%
•ATL: 58%
40%
42%
21%
16%
13%
Somewhat disagree 24%
19%
25% Total (n=1003)
33% BC (n=132)
8% AB (n=101)
9% SK/MB (n=69)
7% ONT (n=375)
Strongly disagree 10% QC (n=238)
6%
ATL (n=88)
9%
9%
46
Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009
47. Economic Stimulus & the Environment
To what extent do you agree with the following statement:
“The Canadian government should only adopt economic stimulus measures that are environmentally sustainable.”
23%
21%
% Agree:
18%
Strongly agree 26% •Total: 73%
19%
•BC: 64%
30%
32% •AB: 62%
49% •SK/MB: 67%
44%
•ONT: 72%
44%
Somewhat agree 41% •QC: 81%
53%
•ATL: 83%
51%
51%
22%
27%
29%
Somewhat disagree 32%
22%
14% Total (n=1003)
10% BC (n=132)
6% AB (n=101)
8% SK/MB (n=69)
9% ONT (n=375)
Strongly disagree 1% QC (n=238)
6%
ATL (n=88)
5%
7%
47
Base N=1,003 Margin of Error +1 – 3.1 percentage points Fielded Fed 17 to 23, 2009
49. Federal Voting Intention
Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties’ candidates would you,
yourself, be most likely to support
37%
The Conservative Party
70%
33%
The Liberals
15%
12%
The New Democratic
Party 10%
10%
The Bloc Quebecois
n/a
8%
The Green party
6%
National (N=2,002)
Alberta (N=182)
49
Base: Decided voters – Leaners included – N=1,735 MOE +/- 2.4 percentage points
50. Tracking Federal Voting Intentions
Federal Party Support
Conservative Liberal
October 14, 2008 37.65% 26.26%
– Election Results = 143 seats = 77 seats
December 2 – 3, 2008 46% 23%
January 6 – 8, 2009 39% 28%
February 3 – 5, 2009 37% 31%
February 24 – March 5 37% 33%
50
52. Concern & Absent Communications
• The Ipsos Better Workplace Syndicated Study was fielded in January
2009. A sample of 1,100 employees across Canada told us about their
workplace, job security, career goals and overall wellness at work.
• Key findings of the study include:
– 24% said their employer has or had plans to lay off staff
– 50% had received no communications from their employer about the
issue of job security / layoffs etc
– 45% who did receive some communication said that it was not
effective
• Effective communication is a cornerstone of employee loyalty and
engagement. For many organizations, these findings do not bode well for
their efforts to attract and retain the best, brightest and most effective staff.
52
54. Some Thoughts & Observations
Canadians are sending very mixed messages … but there are some keys for
business communicators to remember:
• Participation, engagement & building community are requirements for
success in the new media ecosystem. These requirements have not
changed and will only grow in importance.
• Canadians believe that corporations have too much influence and that
greater transparency and regulation should be imposed on their activities.
It is likely that these views have or will grow stronger and become greater
challenges to corporate communications.
• As the ‘hewers of wood’ and suppliers of energy to the world, global and
US public opinion suggests that our economic circumstances will continue
to deteriorate. But Canada has what the world wants and needs. Our
recovery be among the most rapid.
54
55. Some Thoughts & Observations
• Many Canadians expect improvement in their local economy and personal
financial situations, but nonetheless have told us that they intend to keep
their wallets closed.
• There are causes for optimism - relatively low job anxiety, positive views
on homes being good investments, a majority (55% in January) believing
that Canada is on the right track - however the ‘paradox of thrift’ remains
strongly in place.
• Emotion and psychology are critical determinants. Positive leadership and
effective messages can make a significant difference to the economic
behavior of Canadian businesses and citizens. There is clearly room for
improvement in this regard.
• The months ahead are certain to be difficult. Nonetheless a steadfast
commitment to effective communication (inform, educate, advocate) and
relationship building is required to build / reinforce the foundation for the
turnaround when it comes.
55
57. Most Trusted Professions
Extremely Trustworthy (6, 7) Trustworthy (5, 6, 7)
89% 94%
Firefighters
77% 87%
Nurses
57% 85%
Doctors
49% 79%
Teachers
45% 73%
The Police
25% 52%
Accountants
16% 42%
Plumbers
24% 40%
Pollsters
18% 40%
Chiropractors
17% 40%
Financial Advisors
12% 36%
TV and Radio Personalities
11% 29
Lawyers
7% 27%
The Press
7% 21%
CEOs
10%
Car Salespeople
9%
National Politicians
57
58. From Canadian Teens - Level of Coolness
“How cool is your [mom/dad] on a scale of one to ten?”
58%
Cool
36%
35%
In between
40%
6%
Uncool
9%
Mom
Dad
1%
Don’t know
15%
58
Ipsos Reid Canadian Teens Panel May / June 2004
59. From Canadian Teens - Performance on Sex Ed
“How did you find your [mom’s/dad’s] attempts to explain sex to you?”
22%
Excellent
7%
32%
Pretty good
16%
20%
Satisfactory
15%
7%
Could have done better
8%
2% Mom
Hopeless
Dad
6%
16%
Has not explained sex to
me at all 34%
59
Ipsos Reid Canadian Teens Panel May / June 2004
60. The Question “Why?”
“How do you answer your child aged 2 to 5 when he/she asks “Why?” about something you don’t know the answer to?”
I tell him/her I don't know 14%
I tell him/her I don't know and will try to
12%
find the answer on my own
I tell him/her I don't know and we try to
64%
find the answer together
I make up an answer 4%
I know the answer to everything 3%
60
Base: Canadian adults N=1,09 Margin of error: 3.0 percentage points March 2007
61. www.ipsos.ca
Tim Moro Jamie Duncan
Senior Vice President Associate Vice President
Tim.Moro@ipsos.com Jamie.Duncan@ipsos.com
403-294-7379 403-294-7385