December 2015 EDPP: NC FreeEnterprise Foundation's Joe Stewart
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NC FreeEnterprise Foundation Executive Director Joe Stewart’s career spans 25 years in government service, politics, issue advocacy and association management in Baltimore, Washington, DC, and North Carolina. His first professional position was in fundraising, with a job in the UNC Chapel Hill Development Office that began while he was still an undergraduate. He has also worked as a consultant providing insights to corporations and trade associations on issue and political advocacy strategies.
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December 2015 EDPP: NC FreeEnterprise Foundation's Joe Stewart
- 1. 2014 Election Updates & Insights NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape. Joe Stewart Executive Director jstewart@ncfef.org (919) 614-0520 www.ncfef.org @ncfef NCFEF
- 2. 2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB) CVB = voters partisan disposition based on statewide races 2008 - 2014. This is the voter party-preference topographical map of NC Suburbs full of ‘swingers’ Other factors: age (esp. Millennials), ethnicity, gender, nativity
- 3. 2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior I-85 Corridor
- 4. Past Election Results @ DMA (courtesy of Glen Bolger, POS) Charlotte (26%) GOP Dem Other 52% 43% 4% 53% 45% 2% 62% 36% 2% 58% 40% 2% 52% 47% 1% 47% 49% 4% Other (24%) GOP Dem Other 51% 44% 4% 54% 45% 1% 55% 43% 2% 57% 41% 2% 46% 53% 1% 46% 51% 3% Triangle (32%) GOP Dem Other 2014 Sen: 42% 55% 3% 2012 Pres: 43% 56% 1% 2012 Gov: 46% 51% 3% 2010 Sen: 47% 51% 2% 2008 Pres: 42% 57% 1% 2008 Sen: 39% 58% 3% Triad (18%) GOP Dem Other 53% 43% 4% 54% 45% 1% 58% 40% 2% 60% 38% 2% 52% 47% 1% 46% 51% 3%
- 5. Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance MEC K WAK E 2012 Obama 60.8% 54.5% Romney 38.3% 44.2% 2000 Gore 48.2% 46.0% Bush 51.0% 53.1% 1988 Dukakis 40.2% 42.8% Bush 59.4% 56.9% Year NC Population Growth 2010 9,535,475 2014 9,943,964 +408,489 MECK WAKE 2010 919,628 900,993 2014 1,012,539 998,691 INCREAS E +92,911 +97,698
- 6. Political impact of population density 2012 Presidential Election within US Congressional District
- 7. NC Voter Registration Dec 2008 – Aug 2015 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 DEM GOP LIB UNA -244,919 -64,702 +22,878 +369,630 2008: 6,282,575 2015: 6,365,462 +82,887 Dec 2014: 6,631,398
- 8. Counties with at least 1/3 UNA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
- 9. None of the above, or the not DEM or REP vote 2010 – 2,660,079 voted 2002 – 2,331,181 voted Richard Burr 54.81% Elizabeth H. Dole 53.56% Elaine Marshall 43.05% Erskine B. Bowles 44.96% Michael Beitler 2.09% Sean Haugh 1.45% Write-in 0.05% Write In 0.03% 2014 – 2,915,281 voted Thom Tillis 48.82% Kay Hagan 47.26% Sean Haugh 3.74% Write In 0.18%
- 10. 50% of NC Registered Voters Live in 13 Counties 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 White Black Am Indian Other Hispanic Male Female 46.55% 58.07% 18.19% 65.95% 63.73% 49.62% 50.20% Democrats Republicans Libertarians Unaffiliated 51.26% 46.38% 56.78% 52.36%
- 11. NC Count ies w it h Populat ion Loss, 2010-2014 NC Population Growth Not Even 49 NC counties have lost population since 2010 (2014 Census Bureau Data)
- 12. Party Identification, 1939-2015 (Gallup) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Dem % Rep % Indep % New Deal Democratic Coalition Realignment Dealignment Coalition Country Dr. Michael Bitzer Catawba College
- 13. Estimated NC Voter Reg by Generation 2% 4% 8% 10% 16% 18% 24% 26% 27% 22% 23% 25% 25% 26% 26% 25% 25% 27% 45% 43% 41% 40% 36% 35% 33% 32% 33% 31% 29% 26% 25% 22% 21% 18% 17% 13% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Oct-15 Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer Silent Dr. Michael Bitzer Catawba College
- 14. Dr. Michael Bitzer - Catawba College
- 17. 2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB) NC House Districts
- 18. STRONG DEM (34) LEAN DEM (2) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59) 29 L. Hall Durham 114 Fisher Buncombe 54 Reives Lee 118 Presnell Yancey 55 Brody Union 86 Blackwell Burke 110 Hastings Gaston 96 Adams* Catawba 106 Cunningham Mecklenburg 42 Lucas Cumberland 44 Richardson** Cumberland 49 Pendleton* Wake 14 Cleveland Onslow 82 Pittman Cabarrus 77 Warren Rowan 69 Arp Union 102 Carney Mecklenburg 5 Hunter Hertford COMP (11) 9 Murphy** Pitt 36 Dollar Wake 15 Shepard Onslow 98 Bradford* Mecklenburg 13 McElraft Carteret 31 Michaux Durham 32 Baskerville (NR) Vance 66 Goodman Richmond 45 Szoka Cumberland 40 Avila Wake 109 Bumgardner Gaston 91 Hall** Stokes 81 Brown (NR) Davidson 33 Gill Wake 72 Hanes Forsyth 39 Jackson Wake 63 Ross Alamance 37 Stam (NR) Wake 26 Daughtry (NR) Johnston 74 Conrad Forsyth 87 Robinson Caldwell 99 Moore Mecklenburg 100 Cotham Mecklenburg 50 Meyer Orange 53 Lewis Harnett 62 Blust Guilford 16 Millis Pender 104 Bishop (NR) Mecklenburg 76 Ford Rowan 38 Lewis Holley Wake 23 Willingham* Edgecombe 119 Queen Haywood 93 Jordan Ashe 111 Moore Cleveland 83 Johnson Cabarrus 10 J. Bell Wayne 95 Fraley Iredell 60 Brockman* Guilford 47 Graham Robeson 2 Yarborough* Person 1 Steinburg Chowan 75 Lambeth Forsyth 19 Davis New Hanover 84 R. Turner Iredell 89 Setzer Catawba 58 Johnson* Guilford 30 Luebke Durham 22 Brisson# Bladen 65 Jones Rockingham 88 Bryan Mecklenburg 4 Dixon Duplin 17 Iler Brunswick 68 Horn Union 107 Alexander Mecklenburg 43 Floyd Cumberland 92 Jeter Mecklenburg 3 Speciale Craven 25 Collins Nash 59 Hardister Guilford 108 Torbett Gaston 94 Elmore Wilkes 56 Insko Orange 21 L. Bell Sampson 115 Ager* Buncombe 51 Salmon* Harnett 103 Brawley Mecklenburg 61 Faircloth Guilford 105 Schaffer (NR) Mecklenburg 79 Howard Davie 24 Farmer- Butterfield Wilson 7 Richardson Franklin 6 Tine (NR) Dare 64 Riddell Alamance 20 Catlin (NR) New Hanover 52 Boles Moore 97 Saine Lincoln 48 Pierce Scotland 18 Hamilton New Hanover 8 S. Martin Wilson 116 B. Turner* Buncombe 112 Hager Rutherford 117 McGrady Henderson 85 Dobson McDowell 71 Terry Forsyth 34 G. Martin Wake 41 Adcock* Wake 35 Malone Wake 113 Whitmire (NR) Transylvania 120 West (NR) Cherokee 73 Zachary* Yadkin 57 Harrison Guilford 12 Graham Lenoir 28 Langdon (NR) Johnston 80 Watford Davidson 27 Wray Northampton 11 D. Hall Wake *freshman #thinking about retiring? NR = not running in 2016 90 Stevens Surry 70 Hurley Randolph 101 Earle Mecklenburg 46 Waddell (NR) Columbus 67 Burr Stanly 78 McNeill Randolph CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA
- 19. 2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB) NC Senate Districts
- 20. CVB for NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEM STRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24) 28 Robinson Guilford 21 Clark Hoke 19 Meredith Cumberland 8 Rabon Brunswick 50 Davis Macon 24 Gunn Alamance 39 Rucho (NR) Mecklenburg 40 Waddell* Mecklenburg 5 Davis Greene 1 Cook# Beaufort 9 Lee* New Hanover 46 Daniel Burke 47 Hise Mitchell 31 Krawiec Forsyth 38 Ford Mecklenburg 13 Smith* Robeson 25 McInnis* Richmond 15 Alexander* Wake 27 Wade Guilford 2 Sanderson Pamlico 44 Curtis Lincoln 14 Blue Wake 23 Foushee Orange 18 Barefoot Wake 10 B. Jackson Sampson 11 Newton (NR) Wilson 45 Soucek Watauga 35 Tucker Union 20 McKissick Durham 22 Woodard Durham 12 Rabin Harnett 6 Brown Onslow 48 Apodaca (NR) Henderson 42 Wells* Catawba 4 Bryant Nash 37 J. Jackson Mecklenburg 17 Barringer Wake 41 Tarte Mecklenburg 36 Hartsell# Cabarrus 33 Bingham (NR) Davidson 3 Smith- Ingram* Edgecombe 16 Stein (NR) Wake 26 Berger Rockingham 43 Harrington Gaston 30 Randleman Wilkes 32 Lowe* Forsyth 49 Van Duyn* Buncombe *freshman #thinking about retiring? 7 Pate Wayne 34 Brock Davie 29 Tillman Randolph
- 21. CVB for US CONGRESS 10 REP – 3 DEM STRONG DEM (3) LEAN REP (3) STRONG REP (7) 12 Adams* Guilford 3 Jones Pitt 13 Holding Wake 10 McHenry Gaston 1 Butterfield Wilson 8 Hudson Cabarrus 2 Ellmers Harnett 5 Foxx Watauga 4 Price Orange 7 Rouzer* Johnston 6 Walker* Guilford 11 Meadows Macon *freshman hotly contested Primary? 9 Pittenger Mecklenburg
- 22. Partisan Composition & CVB NC General Assembly & Congressional Delegation Strong REP Lean REP COMP Lean DEM Strong DEM NC House 74 – 45 – 1 59 14 11 2 34 NC Senate 34 – 16 24 6 4 0 16 US Congress 10 – 3 7 3 0 0 3
- 23. North Carolina 2016 Election Dynamics President, US Sen, Gov on ballot in ‘battleground’ state = a LOT of political ads (candidates + outside groups) = high turnout? Turnout: 2000: 59% *2004: 64% *2008: 70% 2012: 68% Probable election landscape = Urban v. Rural, Suburbs in play Watch for ‘enthusiasm gap’ = one party’s base party voters dislike their party’s candidate(s) more than the other party’s base voters. March 15, 2016 Primary (Candidate Filing in December 2015) Watch for GOP v GOP Primaries (Establishment v Tea Party)
- 24. North Carolina 2016 Primary Dynamics March 15, 2016 Primary Candidate Filing in Dec 1 – 21 $2 Billion Bond Package on Ballot What’s the voter turnout profile?
- 25. To win NC, the Democratic nominee must re-create the Obama coalition from 2008 To win the election, GOP nominee must win NC NC 2016 Election Dynamics: President
- 26. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: US Senate Rated among vulnerable GOP incumbents NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive 2016 = $200+ million in outside spending Suburbs = battleground Do Democrats get an A List candidate? Chris Rey Deborah Ross Kevin Griffin Paul Wright Larry Holmquist Senator Dan Blue Senator Joel Ford Sen Richard Burr
- 27. NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive Suburbs = battleground 2016 = $100+ million in outside spending Likely to get ugly quick NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor
- 28. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor Cooper Victory Strong US Senate Candidate Presidential Candidate Fights for NC Functioning NC Dem Party McCrory Victory Voters Positive on NC Economy Parity in Outside $ Enthusiasm for Presidental Candidate
- 29. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Exec Branch Governor Roy Cooper ($3M) Ken Spaulding ($50K) Pat McCrory 56.62% ($2.4M) Lt. Governor Linda Coleman ($48K) Holly Jones Robert Wilson ($6K) Dan Forest 50.08% ($247K) Attorney General (OPEN) Sen. Josh Stein ($1.1M) Tim Dunn Sen. Buck Newton ($200K) Jim O’Neill ($94K) Comm of Insurance W. Goodwin 51.9% ($360K) Heather Grant ($700) Mike Causey State Auditor Beth Wood 53.71% ($27K) Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 53.79% ($35K) AJ Doud Comm of Labor Charles Meeker ($15K) Cherie Berry 53.26% ($15K) Comm of Ag Walter Smith Steve Troxler 53.22% ($7K) Super of Public Instruct June Atkinson 54.24% ($9K) Henry Pankey Mark Johnson ($105K) Rosemary Stein State Treasurer (OPEN) Michael Weisel Ron Elmer Edgar Starnes Dale Folwell Mike Walden Joe McLaughin %=2012results($)=cashonhandasofJune30,2015
- 30. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: State Supreme Court Voters will cast their ballot as to whether or not to retain Justice Robert H. Edmunds (Guilford)
- 31. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Court of Appeals Linda H. Stephens (Wake County) 1st Term Democrat Robert H. Hunter (Guilford County) 1st Term (appointed 2015) Republican Richard Dietz (Forsyth County) 1st Term (appointed 2014) Republican Vince Rozier Wake County Democrat
- 32. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch Economy v. ISIS How bad a candidate is Hillary Clinton? Who is the GOP candidate? Is there a 3rd party candidate?
- 33. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch Voter attitude (NC more ‘national’) Party In-fighting Outside money
- 34. NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch Which candidates cut through the clutter and chaos Bottom line: winner reaches Suburban Swingers
- 35. 2014 Election Updates & Insights Questions? Joe Stewart Executive Director jstewart@ncfef.org (919) 614-0520 www.ncfef.org @ncfef NCFEF
Editor's Notes
- CVB shown in Voting Tabulation Districts (VTD) … this is the jurisdictional unit Census data is given in for the state’s redistricting efforts – VTDs all have same number of people in them (thus VTDs in populationally dense areas are smaller geographically) is the building block of a precinct. Blue – Red shows greater intensity of partisan voting performance (candidates of a party did even better within a VTD than they did on a statewide basis) … dark Blue/Red = 6%+ above statewide, light Blue/Red = 3 – 6%, tan = 3% either way. Not a predictor of outcomes, but strong indication of which party’s candidates have a conventional advantage (i.e., unconventional factors, like the candidate’s shortcoming, operational ineptitude of their campaign, lack of resources to communicate with voters, local issues, outside money, etc., all have potential to impact outcome). Key points = urban areas go Dem , rural areas go Rep, some remnants of eastern NC traditional Dems. Point to make: some areas are just monolithic in their partisan disposition.
- CVB map of 1-85 corridor – shows partisan disposition urban versus rural, as well as the complexity within counties: Wake and Mecklenburg has ‘blue belts, red hats and boots’ (Dem voters in middle section of county, Rep voters in northern and southern + swing suburbans. Key to note: there is a correlation between partisan preference and populational density … districts with 800+ people per square mile have much higher levels of Dem voting performance, and the denser the population the more liberal the Democratic orientation.
- Voting registration changes reflect repudiation of party – most of new unaffiliated are first time registrants (people moving into NC, and 18 year olds registering for first time – our UNA are newcomers and Millennials).
- Highlighting significance of growing Millennial voting population.
- CLT: Cabarrus - 04: R +34, 08: R+18 Gaston - 04: R +36, 08: R +25 Mecklenburg – 04: D +4, 08: D +24 Union – 04: R +41, 08: R +27 TRIAD: Davidson – 04: R +42, 08: R +34 Forsyth – 04: R +9, 08: D +11 Guilford – 04: D +1, 08: D +18 Randolph – 04: R +49, 08: R +42 Rockingham – 04: R +22, 08: R +14 TRIANGLE: Chatham – 04: Even, 08: D +10 Durham – 04: D +36, 08: D +52 Johnston – 04: R +36, 08: R +24 Orange – 04 D +35, 08: D +45 Wake – 04 R +2, 08: D + 15
- CVB map of 1-85 corridor – shows partisan disposition urban versus rural, as well as the complexity within counties: Wake and Mecklenburg has ‘blue belts, red hats and boots’ (Dem voters in middle section of county, Rep voters in northern and southern + swing suburbans. Key to note: there is a correlation between partisan preference and populational density … districts with 800+ people per square mile have much higher levels of Dem voting performance, and the denser the population the more liberal the Democratic orientation.
- Continued Republican control of state House very likely after 2016 Election … if Democrats won every single GOP-held COMP district, would still only have 48 seats … would have to hold all current DEM-held seats + win all 12 GOP-held LEAN REP seats plus one STRONG REP seat to win simple majority. House Dem leaders announced a ‘take 4’ plan for 2016 – win four GOP-held seats to eliminate the super majority (pretty modest goal).
- CVB map of 1-85 corridor – shows partisan disposition urban versus rural, as well as the complexity within counties: Wake and Mecklenburg has ‘blue belts, red hats and boots’ (Dem voters in middle section of county, Rep voters in northern and southern + swing suburbans. Key to note: there is a correlation between partisan preference and populational density … districts with 800+ people per square mile have much higher levels of Dem voting performance, and the denser the population the more liberal the Democratic orientation.
- Continued Republican control of state Senate very likely after 2016 Election … if Democrats won every single GOP-held COMP district, would still only have 20 seat, so would have to will ALL LEAN REP seats to take majority.
- Given the partisan disposition of the current districts, any change in the partisan control on an NC Congressional district in 2016 is very unlikely, although Ellmers and Jones both have announced primary opponents.
- Key factors to watch in 2016 election … March presidential primary may result in lower turnout in May primary. Three key factors – overall, NC is a COMP CVB rating, $100 - $250 million estimated to be spent in NC by outside groups, suburban parts of the state home to unaffiliated, independent-minded voters candidates need to win
- Key factors to watch in 2016 election … March presidential primary may result in lower turnout in May primary. Three key factors – overall, NC is a COMP CVB rating, $100 - $250 million estimated to be spent in NC by outside groups, suburban parts of the state home to unaffiliated, independent-minded voters candidates need to win
- Civitas Poll – June 2015
- Key factors to watch in 2016 election … March presidential primary may result in lower turnout in May primary. Three key factors – overall, NC is a COMP CVB rating, $100 - $250 million estimated to be spent in NC by outside groups, suburban parts of the state home to unaffiliated, independent-minded voters candidates need to win
- Key factors to watch in 2016 election … March presidential primary may result in lower turnout in May primary. Three key factors – overall, NC is a COMP CVB rating, $100 - $250 million estimated to be spent in NC by outside groups, suburban parts of the state home to unaffiliated, independent-minded voters candidates need to win
- It’s just going to be a slug fest.
- It’s just going to be a slug fest.
- At this point, the only open seat we know of is Attorney General (Cooper running for Gov) – Atkinson made noise about non running again in 2012, so that’s one to watch (NC Rep. Tricia Cotham is said to be interested in that office, and NC Senator Barringer might avoid an AG primary by switching to Super of Pub Instruction. Berry and Marshall both fully vested in retirement system, but neither has signal they won’t run.
- Edmunds first justice under new ‘retention’ election for state supreme court … appears on the ballot without an opponent, voters simply voting to keep him or not (if not retain, Gov appoints a replacement and there is an open seat race in two years to elect new justice to fill unexpired term.
- Court of Appeals races generally don’t attract much attention, however increasingly outside money (IE) has come into play in these races.
- Will the economy dip and thus drive voter attitudes toward economic issues, or will continued terror abroad (and potentially domestically) make national security the top issue of the 2016 election. HRC is a terrible candidate and voters don’t like her; can the GOP nominate someone who contracts well?
- NC Democratic Party has apparently stabilized somewhat, but still not proficient in fundraising or candidate recruitment. Social conservatives within GOP + Tea Party still fighting with establishment (see Hasan Harnett’s election as Party Chair) – gay marriage decision by SCOTUS may energize these folks toward greater activism in primary Does the GOP legislature come away from session with accomplishments it can campaign on (in COMP and LEAN districts).
- NC Democratic Party has apparently stabilized somewhat, but still not proficient in fundraising or candidate recruitment. Social conservatives within GOP + Tea Party still fighting with establishment (see Hasan Harnett’s election as Party Chair) – gay marriage decision by SCOTUS may energize these folks toward greater activism in primary Does the GOP legislature come away from session with accomplishments it can campaign on (in COMP and LEAN districts).