Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire US Senate Survey 091514

1,501 views

Published on

Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire US Senate survey release. Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, 45.9% to 44.3% respectively.

Published in: News & Politics
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire US Senate Survey 091514

  1. 1. September 15th, 2014 To: Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire Fr: John Diez, Magellan Strategies BR Re: September New Hampshire Statewide Survey Results Magellan Strategies BR is pleased to report the results of a New Hampshire statewide survey conducted September 10-11, 2014. The automated survey of 2,214 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.0%. Summary Findings Terrorism and border security trump Obamacare as most important issues. Obama’s job approval drops 3 points. Republicans have a 10 point lead on the generic ballot. Scott Brown leads Jeanne Shaheen by almost 2 points (45.9% Brown/44.3% Shaheen/9.8% undecided) in the U.S. Senate race. Brown’s lead is in part the result of solidifying the GOP base.  Brown’s support among Republicans has grown by 5 points since July. He now leads Shaheen among registered Republicans by 64 points (79% Brown/14% Shaheen/7% undecided). More important for Brown’s campaign is the fact that his support among Republican voters has intensified. In July, Brown’s overall support among Republicans, 74%, was the sum of 49% definitely Brown and 25% probably Brown. Currently, Brown’s overall support among Republican voters is the sum of 68% definitely Brown and 11% probably Brown.
  2. 2. Magellan ID#: NHSTW-0914-A Page 2 of 7 Field Dates: 09/10-11/14, MOE +/-2.0%,/2,214n Scott Brown’s lead is also the result of his growing support among women, independents and soft Democrats.  Shaheen’s lead among female voters has decline by 42% since July. In July, Shaheen led among females by 19 points (34% Brown/53% Shaheen/13% undecided). Currently, she leads among female voters by 11 points (39% Brown/50% Shaheen/11% undecided).  In July, Shaheen led Brown among independent voters by 11 points (35% Brown/46% Shaheen/19% undecided). Currently, her lead has been cut to 1 point (42% Brown/43% Shaheen/15% undecided).  Shaheen’s support among soft Democrats has dropped 18 points since July. In July, Shaheen led among soft Democrats by 45 points (22% Brown/68% Shaheen/10% undecided). Currently Shaheen leads by only 19 points (31% Brown/50% Shaheen/18% undecided). The protracted negative political environment is beginning to cut deeper into key swing voting groups’ attitudes and opinions, which is shaping a GOP friendly electorate. • Republican support on the generic ballot has increased by 4.5 points. The generic Republican candidate now leads by 10 points. If the election for US Senate were being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Republican and the other was a Democrat, for whom would you vote? • Among independent voters, the generic GOP candidate now leads by 10 points (40% GOP candidate/30% Democrat candidate/30% undecided). In July, the generic GOP candidate led by only 3.8 points (32.4% GOP candidate/28.6% Democrat candidate/38.9% undecided). 47% 36% 17% 42% 36% 22% July 2014 Sept. 2014 Republican Candidate Democrat Candidate Undecided
  3. 3. Magellan ID#: NHSTW-0914-A Page 3 of 7 Field Dates: 09/10-11/14, MOE +/-2.0%,/2,214n • Among female voters, the generic GOP candidate now leads by 1 point (42% GOP candidate/41% Democrat candidate/16% undecided). In July, the generic GOP candidate was down 6 points among female voters (36% GOP candidate/42% Democrat candidate/22% undecided). Among undecided voters, Shaheen will have a steeper hill to climb. 11% % of undecided voter who approve of President Obama‘s job performance. 19% % of undecided voter who think things in the country are going in the right direction. 23% % of undecided voters who have a favorable opinion of Shaheen
  4. 4. Magellan ID#: NHSTW-0914-A Page 4 of 7 Field Dates: 09/10-11/14, MOE +/-2.0%,/2,214n MAGELLAN ID#:NHSTW-0914-A Sample Size=2,214n;+/-2.0% Field Date: 09/10-11/14 Hello, this is ________________ calling on behalf of Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. We’re conducting a quick survey with people in NEW HAMPSHIRE this evening and would like to ask you a few questions on a confidential basis. Q 1. How likely are you to vote in the up-coming elections for Governor and US Senate? 09/14 07/14 EXTREMELY LIKELY TO VOTE 91.4% 85.9% VERY LIKELY TO VOTE 5.8% 9.2% SOMEWHAT LIKELY TO VOTE 2.8% 5.0% Q 2. Thinking now about issues that are facing the country today…Among the following list of (4) issues, which do you think is the top priority that the CONGRESS and US SENATE should be addressing the most aggressively? PROTECTING THE US FROM FUTURE TERRORIST ATTACK 22.5% SECURING OUR BORDERS AND ADDRESSING THE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION PROBLEM 18.2% REPEALING AND REPLACING OBAMACARE 14.3% REDUCING THE NATIONAL DEBT AND SIZE OF GOVERNMENT 14.0% UNDECIDED 9.7% NONE OF THE ABOVE 21.4% Q 3. Would you say things in country are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track? 09/14 07/14 RIGHT DIRECTION 35.4% 35.1% WRONG TRACK 64.6% 64.9%
  5. 5. Magellan ID#: NHSTW-0914-A Page 5 of 7 Field Dates: 09/10-11/14, MOE +/-2.0%,/2,214n Q 4. If the election for US Senate were being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Republican and the other was a Democrat, for whom would you vote? 09/14 07/14 REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE 46.6% 42.1% DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE 36.4% 36.3% UNDECIDED 17.0% 21.6% Thinking now about people active in government… Q 5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Brown? 09/14 07/14 FAVORABLE 38.6% 34.5% UNFAVORABLE 47.6% 43.0% HEARD OF BUT NO OPINION 12.3% 20.0% NEVER HEARD OF 1.4% 2.5% Thinking now about people active in government… Q 6. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeanne Shaheen? 09/14 07/14 FAVORABLE 44.7% 46.9% UNFAVORABLE 49.5% 43.0% HEARD OF BUT NO OPINION 5.4% 9.0% NEVER HEARD OF 0.4% 1.1% Q 7. And do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President? 09/14 07/14 APPROVE 33.3% 36.1% DISAPPROVE 57.0% 56.2% UNDECIDED 9.7% 7.6%
  6. 6. Magellan ID#: NHSTW-0914-A Page 6 of 7 Field Dates: 09/10-11/14, MOE +/-2.0%,/2,214n Thinking now about the 2014 election for US Senate... Q 8-10. If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Scott Brown, Republican, or Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat? 09/14 07/14 SCOTT BROWN 45.9% 41.1% JEANNE SHAHEEN 44.3% 46.0% UNDECIDED 9.8% 12.9% DEFINITELY BROWN 39.0% 25.9% PROBABLY BROWN 6.9% 15.2% PROBABLY SHAHEEN 7.5% 10.5% DEFINITELY SHAHEEN 36.8% 35.5% Q 11. In your opinion, has congress done an adequate job securing the US/Mexico border? YES 18.5% NO 75.5% Q 12. And in your opinion, how likely is it that terrorists will enter the US by crossing the US/Mexico border? TOTAL LIKELY 66.5% TOTAL NOT LIKELY 33.5% VERY LIKELY 39.5% SOMEWHAT LIKELY 27.1% NOT TOO LIKELY 22.8% NOT AT ALL LIKELY 10.7%
  7. 7. Magellan ID#: NHSTW-0914-A Page 7 of 7 Field Dates: 09/10-11/14, MOE +/-2.0%,/2,214n Q 14. These last few questions are for statistical purposes only. Are you a male or female? 09/14 07/14 MALE 49.0% 49.0% FEMALE 51.0% 51.0% Q 15-17.Regardless of how you feel today, with which party are you registered to vote? 09/14 07/14 REPUBLICAN 34.6% 34.6% DEMOCRAT 29.9% 29.9% INDEPENDENT OR OTHER 35.5% 35.5% STR REPUBLICAN 23.6% 23.7% NSS REPUBLICAN 11.0% 10.9% NSS DEMOCRATIC 9.1% 9.8% STR DEMOCRAT 20.8% 20.1% Q 18. Which of the following age group applies to you? 09/14 07/14 18-34 13.0% 13.0% 35-44 14.4% 14.4% 45-54 25.1% 25.1% 55-64 24.3% 24.3% 65 PLUS 23.2% 23.2%

×