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New Hampshire US Senate Survey Toplines 072114

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Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results today of an automated survey of 1,618 likely New Hampshire voters. The survey was conducted July 16-17. The margin of error for a survey of this size is 2.43%. The survey was commissioned by Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire. Aided by a dismal political environment, Scott Brown is within 5 points of defeating Jeanne Shaheen.

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New Hampshire US Senate Survey Toplines 072114

  1. 1.   July  23,  2014                     FOR  IMMEDIATE  RELEASE   CONTACT:  JOHN  DIEZ,  225-­‐485-­‐0405,  jdiez@magellanbr.com                     Aided  by  a  dismal  political  environment,  Scott  Brown  is  within  5  points  of   defeating  Jeanne  Shaheen.         Baton   Rouge,   LA   –   Magellan   Strategies   BR   released   the   survey   results   today   of   an   automated  survey  of  1,618  likely  New  Hampshire  voters.    The  survey  was  conducted  July   16-­‐17.  The  margin  of  error  for  a  survey  of  this  size  is  2.43%.    The  survey  was  commissioned   by  Citizens  for  a  Strong  New  Hampshire.         Summary  Findings     Consistent  with  other  surveys,  the  overall  political  environment  in  New  Hampshire   favors  Republicans.         • Only   35%   of   likely   voters   think   things   in   the   country   are   headed   in   the   right   direction,  while  65%  think  things  are  on  the  wrong  track.       • President  Obama’s  job  approval  is  an  abysmal  36%,  while  a  strong  majority  (56%)   disapproves  of  the  job  he  is  doing.       A  traditional  demographic  shift  in  previous  mid-­‐term  elections  benefits  Republican   candidates.           • In   the   past   two   presidential   elections,   female   voters   have   enjoyed   a   6   point   advantage  over  men  relative  to  total  composition  of  the  electorate.    During  the  past   two  mid-­‐term  elections,  the  female  advantage  has  been  only  2  points.       • Young   voters   (18-­‐34)   represented   28%   and   22%   of   the   electorate   in   2012   and   2008,   respectively.     However,   during   the   past   two   mid-­‐terms,   young   voters   have   fluctuated  between  10%  and  14%.       • Mid-­‐term  elections  have  also  historically  produced  a  Republican  advantage  relative   to  party  composition  of  the  electorate.    During  the  last  two  presidential  elections,   the   Republican   advantage   over   Democrats   on   average   was   only   3.8   points.     However,   during   the   last   two   mid-­‐terms,   the   Republican   advantage   averaged   8.3   points.            
  2. 2. Magellan  ID#:  NHSTW-­‐0714-­‐A     Page  2  of  6   Field  Dates:  7/16/14  -­‐  7/17/14,  MOE  +/-­‐2.43%,  1,618n   Magellan  Strategies  |  12491  Plantation  Creek  Drive  |  Geismar,  LA    70734   225-­‐622-­‐6249  |  MagellanStrategies.com   As  a  result  of  an  abysmal  political  environment  and  mid-­‐term  election  demographics,   Scott  Brown  is  in  a  respectable  position  to  defeat  Jeanne  Shaheen.         • Currently,   Scott   Brown   is   only   down   by   5   points   (41%   Scott   Brown/46%   Jeanne   Shaheen)  with  13%  undecided.       • Among  undecided  voters,  President  Obama’s  job  approval  is  only  10%  while  72%   disapprove.       • Among  undecided  voters,  only  14%  think  things  in  the  country  are  going  in  the  right   direction  while  86%  think  things  are  on  the  wrong  track.   • Lastly,  Brown  still  has  room  to  grow  among  undecided  voters.    Fifty-­‐three  percent  of   undecided  voters  have  yet  to  form  an  opinion  of  him.         Survey  Methodology:   The   survey   results   have   been   weighted   to   better   reflect   the   likely   demographic   characteristics  of  previous  mid-­‐term  elections.    Based  on  an  analysis  of  the  last  four  election   cycles,   mid-­‐term   election   year   demographics   tend   to   be   more   favorable   to   Republican   candidates.    While  presidential  election  year  demographics  are  generally  more  favorable  to   Democratic  candidates.                   +4   +11   +3   SURVEY   2012  GEN   2010  GEN   2008  GEN   2006  GEN   35%   31%   39%   32%   38%   30%   27%   28%   29%   32%   36%   42%   34%   39%   30%   PARTY  REGISTRATION   GOP   DEM   IND   +6   GOP   Advantage  
  3. 3. Magellan  ID#:  NHSTW-­‐0714-­‐A     Page  3  of  6   Field  Dates:  7/16/14  -­‐  7/17/14,  MOE  +/-­‐2.43%,  1,618n   Magellan  Strategies  |  12491  Plantation  Creek  Drive  |  Geismar,  LA    70734   225-­‐622-­‐6249  |  MagellanStrategies.com             SURVEY   2012  GEN   2010  GEN   2008  GEN   2006  GEN   13%   28%   14%   22%   10%   14%   12%   14%   18%   18%   25%   20%   24%   24%   27%   24%   19%   24%   19%   23%   23%   20%   24%   17%   21%   AGE   18-­‐34   35-­‐44   45-­‐54   55-­‐64   65+   SURVEY   2012  GEN   2010  GEN   2008  GEN   2006  GEN   51%   53%   51%   53%   51%   49%   47%   49%   47%   49%   GENDER   FEMALE   MALE   Female   Advantage   +6   +2   +6   +2   Age   18-­‐34   28%   14%   22%   10%  
  4. 4. Magellan  ID#:  NHSTW-­‐0714-­‐A     Page  4  of  6   Field  Dates:  7/16/14  -­‐  7/17/14,  MOE  +/-­‐2.43%,  1,618n   Magellan  Strategies  |  12491  Plantation  Creek  Drive  |  Geismar,  LA    70734   225-­‐622-­‐6249  |  MagellanStrategies.com   MAGELLAN  ID#:NHSTW-­‐0714-­‐A         Sample  Size=1,618n;+/-­‐2.43%   Field  Date:  07/16-­‐17/14                   Hello,  this  is  ________________  calling  on  behalf  of  Citizens  for  a  Strong  New  Hampshire.    We’re   conducting  a  quick  survey  with  people  in  NEW  HAMPSHIRE  this  evening  and  would  like  to   ask  you  a  few  questions  on  a  confidential  basis.           Q  1.   How  likely  are  you  to  vote  in  the  up-­‐coming  elections  for  Governor  and  US  Senate?       EXTREMELY  LIKELY  TO  VOTE     85.9%     VERY  LIKELY  TO  VOTE     9.2%     SOMEWHAT  LIKELY  TO  VOTE     5.0%         Q  2.   Would  you  say  things  in  country  are  going  in  the  right  direction  or  have  they  gotten   off  on  the  wrong  track?       RIGHT  DIRECTION     35.1%     WRONG  TRACK     64.9%         Q  3.     If  the  election  for  US  Senate  were  being  held  today,  and  all  you  knew  about  the  two   candidates  was  that  one  was  a  Republican  and  the  other  was  a  Democrat,  for  whom   would  you  vote?       REPUBLICAN  CANDIDATE     42.1%     DEMOCRATIC  CANDIDATE     36.3%     UNDECIDED     21.6%       Thinking  now  about  people  active  in  government…     Q  4.   Do  you  have  a  favorable  or  unfavorable  opinion  of  Scott  Brown?       FAVORABLE     34.5%     UNFAVORABLE     43.0%     HEARD  OF  BUT  NO  OPINION     20.0%     NEVER  HEARD  OF     2.5%          
  5. 5. Magellan  ID#:  NHSTW-­‐0714-­‐A     Page  5  of  6   Field  Dates:  7/16/14  -­‐  7/17/14,  MOE  +/-­‐2.43%,  1,618n   Magellan  Strategies  |  12491  Plantation  Creek  Drive  |  Geismar,  LA    70734   225-­‐622-­‐6249  |  MagellanStrategies.com   Thinking  now  about  people  active  in  government…     Q  5.   Do  you  have  a  favorable  or  unfavorable  opinion  of  Jeanne  Shaheen?       FAVORABLE     46.9%     UNFAVORABLE     43.0%     HEARD  OF  BUT  NO  OPINION     9.0%     NEVER  HEARD  OF     1.1%       Q  6.   And  do  you  approve  or  disapprove  of  the  job  that  Barack  Obama  is  doing  as   President?       APPROVE     36.1%     DISAPPROVE     56.2%     UNDECIDED     7.6%         Thinking  now  about  the  2014  election  for  US  Senate...     Q  7-­‐9.   If   the   election   was   being   held   today,   for   whom   would   you   vote   if   the   candidates   were  Scott  Brown,  Republican,  or  Jeanne  Shaheen,  Democrat?       SCOTT  BROWN     41.1%     JEANNE  SHAHEEN     46.0%     UNDECIDED     12.9%             DEFINITELY  BROWN     25.9%     PROBABLY  BROWN     15.2%     PROBABLY  SHAHEEN     10.5%     DEFINITELY  SHAHEEN     35.5%         Q  10.     These  last  few  questions  are  for  statistical  purposes  only.    Are  you  a  male  or  female?       MALE     49.0%     FEMALE     51.0%          
  6. 6. Magellan  ID#:  NHSTW-­‐0714-­‐A     Page  6  of  6   Field  Dates:  7/16/14  -­‐  7/17/14,  MOE  +/-­‐2.43%,  1,618n   Magellan  Strategies  |  12491  Plantation  Creek  Drive  |  Geismar,  LA    70734   225-­‐622-­‐6249  |  MagellanStrategies.com   Q  11-­‐13.Regardless  of  how  you  feel  today,  with  which  party  are  you  registered  to  vote?       REPUBLICAN     34.6%     DEMOCRAT     29.9%     INDEPENDENT  OR  OTHER     35.5%             STR  REPUBLICAN     23.7%     NSS  REPUBLICAN     10.9%     NSS  DEMOCRATIC     9.8%     STR  DEMOCRAT     20.1%       Q  14.   Which  of  the  following  age  group  applies  to  you?         18-­‐34     13.0%     35-­‐44     14.4%     45-­‐54     25.1%     55-­‐64     24.3%     65  PLUS     23.2%          

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