1) Mongolia transitioned to democracy in an atypical way compared to theories of democratic transition, lacking many prerequisites like economic development or proximity to established democracies.
2) The transition occurred in four stages: collapse of Soviet authority triggered changes; a new constitution established a mixed parliamentary-presidential system; the dominant MPRP party was constrained by foreign aid dependence; and consolidation faced challenges from economic crises and party disintegration.
3) While Mongolia achieved electoral democracy and is considered politically free, its democratic system remains works in progress, as consolidation is still incomplete and dependence on foreign involvement remains high.
Mongolia's Path to Democracy Without Prerequisites
1. “Mongolia: Democracy Without Prerequisites”
- M. Steven Fish
Journal of Democracy – July 1998
(Publication on the theory and practice of
democracy)
2015-08-24
“Political Change in Context”
Presenter: Burenjargal Bombish
SungKongHoe University-MAINS program
“Mongolia: Dependent Democratization” -
Verena Fritz
Journal of Communist and Post-Communist Studies - Sep,
2010
(covering communist and post-communist states and
communist movements)
2. Content
• Introduction
• Modes of transition
oThe Preconditions School
oThe Mode of Transition School
• Democratic Transition and Consolidation in the Land of Chinggis
Khaan
• Explanations
oStage 1: The transition triggered from outside
oStage 2: Auspicious constitutional choice
oStage 3: Keeping the MPRP on track
oStage 4: Towards consolidation
• Conclusion: The “Steppe” Path to Democracy
4. Introduction:
Contradicts
• Modernization theory
• Explanations of democratic episodes or geographical
location
• Mode of transition
• Importance of early replacement of political elites
Untypical achievement (with diverse factors)
• The second country to become communist country in 1921
• Rated as politically free country by the Freedom House
Surveys
5. Precondition assumption:
Economic development
least developed & poor communist
country in 1990 (annual per capita
income of 500$)
Development indicator:
Education
Universal literacy - did not differ from
other Soviet republics reversed
democratization
Democratic prehistory No prehistory (feudal system in Manju
Qin period later collective
agriculture)
Geographical proximity to
established democracy
No prospect of accession to the EU.
A. The Preconditions School
I. Modes of Transition
6.
7.
8. Culture and Religion Nomadic culture and Buddhist
religion could be classified as neutral
for democratization
Ethnic composition • Largely homogeneous - 90% Khalkh
• External minority: Inner Mongolians
Size of population Small population (3 million) is
dispersed yet Capital UB resembles a
“city state”
Already established
independent statehood
Until the late 1980s independence was
highly limited: “satellite country” of the
Soviet Union.
A. The Preconditions School
I. Modes of Transition
9.
10. Religion Buddhist monasteries -Feudal centres
70 years-Religious activities were
suppressed
Culture:
a. Nomadic culture associated
with proto-democratic
individualism
b. Nomadic culture is
disadvantage for
democratization-
prevalence of clan structure
a. * In Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan
limited steps towards
democratization
* Nomads were dependent on
communist system.
b. Clans were not politically
important and unaware of their
clan affiliation
A. The Preconditions School
I. Modes of Transition
11. B. The Mode of Transition School
“Pacted” transition: old and new elites agree on certain rules of the game and
extend mutual guarantees (Southern Europe and Latin America)
Some elements of a pact belongs to the elite-controlled type
Decisive shift as a result of first competitive election is more likely to lead to full
democracy (Eastern Europe)
MPRP (Mongolian People’s Revolution Party) & oppositions agreed
holding the first competitive elections.
Communist vote stood at 60-70% in the founding election in 1990.
I. Modes of Transition
“Mode of transition” theory might view favorable but initial election
resulting elite continuity as rather inauspicious for further
democratization.
12. How do we know if
Democracy and
Democratic
Consolidation are in
Mongolia?
II. Democratic Transition and Consolidation in the
Land of Chinggis Khaan
Uncertainty of
electoral result
Certainty of
procedure
Democracy:
Election
(Electoral
democracy)
Adam Przeworski
Freedom
13. 1. Freedom - Continuously classified “free”
• Press freedom: Media were rated “free” despite some pressures made by new
new media law.
• Freedom to assemble:
oNumerous parties
oNew trade unions
oProgressive NGOs and civil society
oCivic activism: transparency and accountability of the ruling party
2. Uncertainty of electoral result – Electoral results were uncertain
3. Certainty of Procedure – Remained problematic
• Right of parliamentarians simultaneously to hold ministerial posts
• Competencies and prerogatives of parliament, government and president
Democracy
21. • Citizens perceive the
democracy as right
step while 1/3 live
under population
(81% in rural & 85%
in UB)
Democratic consolidation
Citizens must
support democracy even in
the face of economic crises
Those in power must
follow constitutional rules
Democratic
consolidation
No significant group
seek to overthrow
the democratic rules
• No extremist party
threating to
undermine the
constitutional order
• Governments have firmly followed
constitutional rules
• The constitutional court appears
to be well established.
22. Explanations
• Steven Fish:
o Fast consolidation of party system as crucial factor for
achieving full democratization
• Author argues:
o Parties and its system suffered from tendency to
disintegrate and to rely on personalities rather
than programmes.
o Instead, emphasized four phases with different
combination of factors allowing democratization to
proceed.
23. Stage 1:
The transition triggered from outside
• Collapse of Soviet authoritarian system – Ensuring a
Peaceful liberalization process
oThe party’s GS Tsedenbal. Yu and Batmunkh. Ja
oMongolia was affected by Sino Soviet friendship
(late 1980)
oDemonstrations and hunger strike – Resignation of
Politburo and GS – Old elite was unwilling to give
up power, but willing to consult and compromise
o Small inter-connected elites, demonstration leaders demanded compromise
than confrontation
• Mongolian leaders had begun to look for new aid from Western sources.
Founding elections took place in July 29, 1990
24.
25.
26.
27. It can not be called
PACTED transition
(It was not in a
position to bargain
over power sharing)
but more likely
REGIME
CONTROLLED
transition
28. Stage 2:
Auspicious constitutional choice
• After lengthy parliamentary debates, a
Constitution providing for a mixed
parliamentary-presidential system was adopted
in Jan 1992.
oThe president is directly elected, but the government,
headed by a prime minister, is appointed and
removed by parliamentary majorities.
oThe legislature was unified into one chamber and
slimmed down to 76 members.
• A constitution with a weak presidency was
auspicious for further democratization in
29. PARLIAMENT
76 members
PRIME MINISTER
GOVERNMENT
SAIKHANBILEG.CH
PRESIDENT
ELBEGDORJ.
TS
16 Ministries
(4 General & 12
specific orientation
ministries)
And its agencies
Provinc
e
Soum
Bag
Municip
al
District
Khoroo
National
Security
Council
National Audit Office
National statistical office
Bank of Mongolia
Government Service
Council
Financial Regulatory
Commission
National Human Rights
Commission
General Election
Committee
Constitutional Court
Independent Authority
Against Corruption of
Mongolia
Deputy Prime
Minister
Cabinet Secretariat
of Government
JUDICIARY
The General Council
of the Courts
Supreme Court
State General
Prosecutors Office
Judicial Information
System
Legal Information
System
MONGOLIAN GOVERNMENT STRUCTURE
30. 11 Women Parliament Members from four different parties
as “Women Caucus” Chaired by Mrs. Erdenechimeg. L
31. Stage 3:
Keeping the MPRP on track
• The MPRP have been dominant ruling party under majoritarian than
proportional election rules
• The MPRP had no interest in fostering a multi-party system e.g. limited
access to oppositions
• Foreign party foundations and democracy-promoting NGOs provided
financial and material assistance
• Population was ready to change the ruling party
• Crucial dependence of Mongolia on foreign aid-There is no “democratic
conditionality” http://countrymeters.info/en/Mongolia/economy
• Dependency has strong security components – All governments pursued
pro-Western foreign policy (ODA makes up 20% of GDP)
32. 1990 1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
70 vs 6
25 vs 50
+ 1
Bagabandi. N - MPRP
1997
1993
2001
2005
2009
2013
Enkhbayar. N
MPRP
Elbegdorj. Ts – Democratic
party
..
SDP
357 vs 24
Great khural
31 vs 19
Small Khural
72 vs 4
36 vs 36
+ 4
45 vs 28
+ 3
25 vs 31 vs 11
vs 3 +1
1990
Ochirbat. P
MPRP
36. JUSTICE COILITION
Mongolian People’s
Party
Mongolian People’s
Revolution Party
Democratic Party Mongolian National
Democratic Party
(MNDP)
Civil will-Green Party
Political parties which have
parliament seats in the
election of the 2012
37. Bread Card System: Oct 1991-Apr 1993
• Per month per person: 3 kg flour, 550 gr
sugar, 550 gr rice, 350 gr butter
• Per household: 1 salad oil, 4 vodka, bread
bread depending on number of family
members e.g. 6 members of family will
38. Stage 4: Towards consolidation
• Dependency on foreign donors:
o Promote democracy in the short term and less effective in the longer term
o Has not solved country’s development problems
o Economic policy has been strongly influenced by foreign advisers
o The focus was on liberalization – IMF forced government to abolish an export on
raw cashmere.
o Project assistance often targeted for general development
• During DU government:
o “Shock therapy” administered between 1996 and1998 further undermined
domestic production and increased the poverty rate.
o Disintegration: MNDP, Social-Democratic MSDP, and a new party “Civil Courage”
(PCC)
o Change of prime ministers
o Corruption and political enmity
40. • Inauspicious condition of majoritarian system
• Long ruling of both parliament and president, Banagbandi from
there was a risk that one party unchecked powers to alter the rules
of the game
• MPRP today appears more deeply committed to democratic values
was before 1996.
• Absence of ethnic conflict
• Civil society is surprisingly strong
o Press Institute - Danish aid
o The Liberal Women’s Brain Pool (LEOS), country wide voter education
project – National Endowment Democracy, AF and KAS.
o Mongolian students
• Nevertheless, democracy appears to have already acquired a
Stage 4: Towards consolidation
41. Conclusion:
The “Steppe” Path to Democracy
• Mongolian democratization contradicts transition theory
• Structural factors:
o Buddhist religion and a nomadic society with weak clan structures
o No ethnic conflict
• “Conjunctural” factors:
o Independency of country
o Constitutional choice –mixed parliamentary presidential system
o Strong dependency on foreign aid and external promotion
o Predominance of free-market ideology is undermining important structural assets:
universal education, a social safety net, and relative economic equality
o Domestic capacity to solve problems independently were poor
o DU failure
o Majoritarian electoral system
42. Comments of the presenter
• The article covered and reviewed wide issues related to the
democratization and well captured.
• External factor to transition was from Soviet Union collapse - Both
Tsedenbal. Ya and Batmunkh were not just simply “puppet” of Soviet Union.
They had careful strategy to keep the national independence and development
under pressure of leaders of Soviet Union.
• Both articles were written in too optimistic view that Mongolia has
already achieved democratization and democratic consolidation -
Analyze made at the political system and parties at top level as basic
indicators but at the bottom level, still, mass of population are lacking
democratic and civic education. More genuine and solid review and
measurement probably would bring another view such as corruption at
all level, government bureaucracy, poor participation, economic injustice in
grassroots issues.
43. Comments of the presenter
• Civil society is relatively strong among limited numbers of NGOs
• NGOs are more charity and service delivery functioned
• Few and early NGOs are empowered and got support from foreign aids
but not all. Most of NGOs are lacking technical, material and financial
capacities.
Escaped the democratic erosion which occurred in western post-communist countries.
Freedom House Index Survey suggests that countries with populations below 5M are on average freer and more likely democratic than larger population
Pre 20th century thinking on the ideal setting for democratic government – “City state”
As the Arab emirates with their small populations remind that smallness is not sufficient to guarantee democratization.
Tsedenbal. Yu – 32 years of ruling (actually 44 years in the leadership role) – viewed as “Moscow's delegate in UB
In general, economic, geographic and historical preconditions in Mongolia were all unfavorable.
Democratization: unlikely -> more unlikely: consolidation (Kyrgyzstan-reversed)
Freedom to access to the mass media -> democratic accountability
Uncertainty of results: No distort the vote through various pressures (Ukraine)
Procedural certainty were difficult in many post communist countries
Media were rated “free” in 2000 by research org-ns (Freedom House, Freemedia and Worldaudit) – Big success to reach widely dispersed 1.2 million adults
However new media law (1999), hardened press freedom, the media appear protest against and resist any pressures.
Freedom of assemble was respected since beginning of transition. Government were easy to register them.
One of the danger was almost monopolistic position by MPRP – Until 1996 (Japan and Italy are examples of established demo with long standing imbalances in the party system)
Mongolia was affected by Sino Soviet friendship (late 1980)
Troops were removed (100,000 at the border with China)
Gorbachev’s declared the right of self determination
Soviet development aid was aid was switched from grants to credits
Small dissident groups began to be formed.
Demonstrations and hunger strike took place in UB –Resignation of Politburo and General Secretary
MPRP internally divided into hard-line and more accommodating wings
The Politburo and GS resigned in March 1990 and replaced by moderates from within the party. The MPRP stalled on the registration of new parties.
In May, the opposition staged a major hunger strike.
New parties were allowed to register and the first competitive elections were scheduled.
Mongolian leaders had begun to look for new aid from Western sources.
US embassy opening in 1988
March 1990, first law on foreign direct investment was adopted
June 1990, Minister of FA, Gombosuren was sent on an aid-seeking tour to Europe.
Founding elections of Mongolia’s democratization took place in July 29, 1990.
Opposition was poorly organized and already divided into several parties
36% of list vote – all opposition parties
6% of popular vote – directly elected MPs – Great Khural
MPRP appointed Ganbold. D as a deputy prime minister for economic affairs & Gonchigdorj. R as a speaker Small Khural from an opposition party.
Consultation was practiced during the constitutional process: 20-member constitution commission including legal specialists, representatives of all parties and foreign advisors
In post-communist countries, demo has been eroded by strong presidential powers (5 countries: Ukriane, Soviet republic)
Constitutional process earlier than the Soviet Republics
Ochirbat was not the hero of the country unlikely with Boris Yeltsin and Lech Walesa
KAS promoted electoral coalition between the MNDP and the MSDP
IRI funded “Contract with the Mongolian Voter” modelled on the Republicans (Contract with America-1994, US Congressional elections) publication printing – 350.000 copies
The IMF, the World Bank (IBRD), and the Asian Development Fund (ADB) + important bilateral donors include Japan, the US and Germany
“One of the highly donored countries in the world” said head of USAID
There is no “democratic conditionality”
Fish mentioned: Mongolia with regard to natural resources or other geopolitical strategies.
1990: 357 vs 24 at the Great Khural 31 vs 19 at the Small Khural
1992: 70 vs 6= 4 Alliance + 1 MSDP + 1 Independent)
1996: MPRP-25, DU-50 & MUTP-1 (Mongolian United Traditional Party) + People highly dissatisfied with the constantly weakening economic situation.
2000: MPRP – 72, MUTP-1, DU-1, Civic Green-1, Green-1, “Ekh oron”-1 and 1 independent candidate
2004: MPRP-36, Coilition-36, Independent from Dem Party-3 and 1 Republican Party
2008: MPRP-45, DP-28, Green P-1, Civic coalition-1 and Independent 1
2012: MPP-25, DP-31, MPRP-11, Civic Green 3, Independent-1
Bad results:
eco situation: education, social security system, economic inequality)
Banking supervision was poor: most banks have bad loans
Removing all import tariffs – problem with revenue collection
Micro-credit
Coordination among donors
Zorig. S – Death
DU failed to change the election rule
Bagabandi tried strong presidency during his term but it was unlikely from the same party members.