Booosting 20 jaar vooruit!_ jubileum oktober 2008_ Wim SInke

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Booosting 20 jaar vooruit!_ jubileum oktober 2008_ Wim SInke

  1. 1. From consumer to producer Solar energy innovations in the built environment Wim C. Sinke ECN Solar Energy, Utrecht University & EU PV Technology Platform
  2. 2. Or: 7 myths about solar energy
  3. 3. The many faces of (photovoltaic) solar energy
  4. 4. Myth 1 <ul><li>Solar energy is only for niches </li></ul>
  5. 5. Fact is: <ul><li>Solar energy has practically unlimited potential and is indispensable for a sustainable energy future (world, EU & NL) </li></ul>
  6. 6. oil coal gas nuclear power hydroelectricity biomass (traditional) biomass (advanced) solar power (photovoltaics (PV) & solar thermal generation (CSP) solar thermal (heat only) other renewables geothermal wind energy Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de (example scenario) EJ/a Solar energy in the energy transition PV & CSP year 2000 2020 2040 200 600 1000 1400 2100
  7. 7. 2500 TWh ~1% of primary energy 1500 ~ 2000 GWp
  8. 10. Myth 2 <ul><li>Solar energy is only sunbelt countries </li></ul>
  9. 11. Fact is: <ul><li>Solar energy is very evenly distributed compared to all other renewables </li></ul>
  10. 12. Solar resource solar irradiation in kWh/m 2. day (source: ABB, 1998)
  11. 13. Myth 3 <ul><li>Solar energy will never become competitive </li></ul>
  12. 14. Fact is: <ul><li>Solar energy is competitive with peak power today and will reach grid parity in all of Europe within 10 years </li></ul>
  13. 15. Grid parity in Europe – 2007 (lines to guide the eye) insolation map : Šúri M., Huld T.A., Dunlop E.D. Ossenbrink H.A., 2007. Potential of solar electricity generation in the European Union member states and candidate countries. Solar Energy (in press), http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/
  14. 16. Grid parity in Europe – 2010 (lines to guide the eye)
  15. 17. Grid parity in Europe – 2015 (lines to guide the eye)
  16. 18. Grid parity in Europe – 2020 (lines to guide the eye)
  17. 19. Grid parity in Europe – 2030 (lines to guide the eye)
  18. 20. Fingerprints of PV technology                     0.25 0.5 1 2 >10 Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs) up to 60% up to 40% Up to 30% up to 25% (  10%) Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies up to 40% up to 25% Up to 20% up to 15% up to 8% Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies (total area) 0.03 0.06 (competitive with wholesale electricity) 0.15 / 0.12 (competitive with retail electricity) 0.30 >2 Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2007 €/kWh) 0.5 1 2.5 / 2.0 5 (range 4 ~8) >30 Typical turn-key system price (2007 €/Wp, excl. VAT) Long term potential 2030 2015 / 2020 Today 1980 Rounded figures
  19. 21. Fingerprints of PV technology                     0.25 0.5 1 2 >10 Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs) up to 60% up to 40% Up to 30% up to 25% (  10%) Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies up to 40% up to 25% Up to 20% up to 15% up to 8% Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies (total area) 0.03 0.06 (competitive with wholesale electricity) 0.15 / 0.12 (competitive with retail electricity) 0.30 >2 Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2007 €/kWh) 0.5 1 2.5 / 2.0 5 (range 4 ~8) >30 Typical turn-key system price (2007 €/Wp, excl. VAT) Long term potential 2030 2015 / 2020 Today 1980 Rounded figures
  20. 22. Myth 4 <ul><li>Solar energy is a pain in the neck for </li></ul><ul><li>urban planners and architects </li></ul>
  21. 23. Fact is: <ul><li>Solar energy can give added value(s) to buildings and is on its way to become a versatile building element </li></ul>
  22. 24. Solar resource NL: freedom in design for “sun-friendly” urban planning and architecture Source: Holland Solar orientation and tilt dependence of yearly irradiance (NL) < 10% loss
  23. 25. Solar resource NL: freedom in design for “sun-friendly” urban planning and architecture Source: Holland Solar orientation and tilt dependence of yearly irradiance (NL) < 20% loss
  24. 26. Mayersloot (architect Tjerk Reijenga)
  25. 27. City of the Sun, courtesy: Municipality of Heerhugowaard
  26. 28. Derbisolar W ü rth Solar
  27. 29. Office building ECN (architect Tjerk Reijenga)
  28. 30. W ürth S olar
  29. 31. Ohta city, Japan Photo courtesy SunConnex Berlin, DE Sunderland, UK
  30. 32. United Solar
  31. 33. Myth 5 <ul><li>Solar energy is intermittent and unsuitable to build a reliable electricity supply </li></ul>
  32. 34. Fact is: <ul><li>Solar energy in combination with other renewables, storage and a smart grid can do the job </li></ul>
  33. 35. Ken Zweibel, James Mason and Vasilis Fthenakis
  34. 36. Europe - Middle East & North Africa (EU-MENA) grid Source: DLR (DE) / Stichting GEZEN (NL) Press release 26 Nov 2007: Clean Power from Deserts for Europe, the Middle East and North Africa Prince Hassan bin Talal of Jordan presents White Paper to EU Parliament
  35. 37. PV grid integration Source: M. Braun, ISET, DE
  36. 38. Myth 6 <ul><li>Solar energy is not sustainable </li></ul>
  37. 39. Fact is: <ul><li>The system energy pay-back time in NL is only 3 years now and will be reduced to <1 yr, on a technical lifetime of 25 ~ 40 yrs </li></ul>
  38. 40. Energy pay-back time (NL) : status and near-future development Alsema, de Wild-Scholten and Fthenakis, Proc. EUPVSEC21 (2006)
  39. 41. Myth 7 <ul><li>Solar energy is nice and may become important, but it’s better to wait a little </li></ul>
  40. 42. Facts are: <ul><li>The heat is on now </li></ul><ul><li>We have no time to lose </li></ul>
  41. 43. Global cell production 1997-2007 (in MWp) Source: Photon, April 2008 <ul><li>yearly growth of 30-70% in past 10 years (avg >40%/a) </li></ul><ul><li>volume 2007 of 4.3 GWp (35-40 km 2 ) </li></ul><ul><li>turnover 2007 estimated at 15 G€ (modules + BoS) </li></ul>China, Taiwan & RoW Japan Total Europe USA
  42. 44. Installed power per application area Source: Paul Maycock & Travis Bradford, Renewable Energy World (July/Aug 2007)
  43. 45. Solar Europe Initiative
  44. 46. thank you for your attention! © Greenpeace

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