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Energiewende vs. Czech energy
policy
Milan Šimoník, 30.1.2016, Berlin
Czech myths
Source: MPO, 2005
 RES potential not sufficient in Czech republic
(partially true, but the potential by far not utilised yet)
 Unless we build new NPPs, candles will be needed
Děkuji za
pozornost.
Source: IVD conference, Prague, 18.6.2013
MPO/CEZ 2013: Unless we build new power plants,
there will be lack of electricity in 2020
Forecast of demand and production (without new plants, SEK).
Other fuels
Other
gases
NG
RES
Nuclear
Hard coal
Lignite
Demand
TWh
History
 1986 – DUKOVANY 4x440 MW
 1991 – Ecological limits of coal mining (government decree)
 2000 – TEMELIN 2x1000 MW (15 TWh/year)
 2000 - 2015 – electricity export 13-17 TWh/year
 2005 - Support for RES introduced (FITs)
 2009 - 2010 – Solar tunel
 2013 – up to now – FIT for RES substantially limited (PV, wind=0)
 2014 - EEG Umlage reform – fix fee acc. to feeder size,max.0,2
ct/kWh
 2014 – TEMELIN tender- cancelled
Solar tunel – The state was not capable(or not willing?) to effectively
react
History of FIT for FV up to 30 kW
Final price for households
Recent year (2015)
 ASEK – above 50% electricity from nuclear until 2040
 New Energy act – easier to build PV up to 10 kW
 Limits in Bilina mine released (100 mil. t), decision about ČSA
mine limits (Horni Jiretin) postponed until 2020 (750 mil. t)
 Action plan for nuclear energy (detailed, budget 1,3 bilion EUR)
 State commitee for nuclear energy
 Action plan for Smart grids – slow progress, planned up to 2035…
 Action plan for RES – vague, weak targets, no support for wind
 RES share on electricity production 12% (target for 2020 increased
from 13 to 15,3%)
 NZU – subsidies for RES in housholds
 OP PIK – subsidies for energy eff. in industry
Future
 2016 – started preparation of „Reform“ of distribution fees
(high fixed fee - less motivation for savings and
selfproduction)
 2016 – expected „unlimited“ life-extension permit for
DUKOVANY
 2016-2025 – preparation phase of 1-2 blocks in TEMELIN
and 1-2 blocks in DUKOVANY (financing model, permitting,
selection of supplier)
 2020 – re-evaluation of coal mining limits at ČSA mine
 2025 – final decisions about investment into new NPPs
 2033 – DUKOVANY commissioned?
 2037 – TEMELIN commissioned?
Source: ASEK 12/2014
Business as
usual….
ASEK 2015– Forecast of final energy
consumption
Germany – decoupling of GDP
and Energy consumption
Source: Dopady zvýšení energetické účinnosti na českou energetiku, Úřad vlády, listopad 2014
Czech economy is still very energy
intensive
Energy intensity of EU countries GJ/1000 EUR (equal sector base)
+ 5 other
scenarios,
incl.green
one…
ASEK 2015– Update of Czech energy
strategy
„Optimised“ scenario:
 Electricity consumption expected to grow
 Up to 4 new nuclear reactors, above 50%
 Electricity export continued
 RES potential underestimated
Gross electricity production
RES
Gas
Nuke
Lignit
e
So called „green“ scenario:
 Consumption of electricity still growing
 No new nuclear reactors
 Only moderate RES growth
 Import of electricity needed - scenario refused
Lignit
e
Nuke
Gas
RES
Gross electricity production
Wind potential up to 16 TWh in 2040
(20% von Grossverbrauch)
Source: Study of Komora OZE, www.csve.cz/clanky/potencial-vetrne-energie-cr/495
Czech Republic - Wind energy potential
Optimistic
Conservative
ASEK-green
ASEK-optimised
RES potential is by 6-18 TWh higher than in „green“ scenario.
Wind
(TWh)
PV
(TWh)
Biomass
(TWh)
Water
(TWh)
Geo
(TWh)
Total RES
(TWh)
ASEK -
Optimised
Scenario
2,28 5,88 9,6 2,53 0,14 20
ASEK - Green
Scenario
4,53 7,6 10,2 2,53 0,14 24
Realistic green
scenario
8,34-16,08 8-10 11-13 2,53 0,14 30-42
Total RES electricity production in 2040
Realistic green scenario
Gross electricity production
New nuclear reactors
not needed until 2045
RES
Gas
Nuke
Lignit
e
Source Prognos/EWI/GWS 2014
Germany: In 2050 still 30% fossil
electricity?
Or import from „RES rich“ countries?
Milan Šimoník, Energy expert, Czech Greens
+420 725 628 034
simonik.milan@gmail.com
http://simonikmilan.wordpress.com
https://www.facebook.com/zeleni.energetika
 Trust we each other? Energy Union?
 Nordstream2?
 Grid extension in Germany?
 New design of electricity market? Market for nuclear energy?
 Common responsibility for energy security?
 RES potential in EU? Imports? Desertec?
Discussion
Abbreviations
 MPO Ministry of industry and trade
 SEK Czech energy strategy
 ASEK Update of Czech energy strategy
 OZE RES
 Komora OZE Czech Chamber of RES
 ERÚ Czech Energy regulatory office
 ÚEL Ecological limits of coal mining

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Czech energy policy by Milan Šimoník (30.1.2016)

  • 1. Energiewende vs. Czech energy policy Milan Šimoník, 30.1.2016, Berlin
  • 2. Czech myths Source: MPO, 2005  RES potential not sufficient in Czech republic (partially true, but the potential by far not utilised yet)  Unless we build new NPPs, candles will be needed
  • 3. Děkuji za pozornost. Source: IVD conference, Prague, 18.6.2013 MPO/CEZ 2013: Unless we build new power plants, there will be lack of electricity in 2020 Forecast of demand and production (without new plants, SEK). Other fuels Other gases NG RES Nuclear Hard coal Lignite Demand TWh
  • 4. History  1986 – DUKOVANY 4x440 MW  1991 – Ecological limits of coal mining (government decree)  2000 – TEMELIN 2x1000 MW (15 TWh/year)  2000 - 2015 – electricity export 13-17 TWh/year  2005 - Support for RES introduced (FITs)  2009 - 2010 – Solar tunel  2013 – up to now – FIT for RES substantially limited (PV, wind=0)  2014 - EEG Umlage reform – fix fee acc. to feeder size,max.0,2 ct/kWh  2014 – TEMELIN tender- cancelled
  • 5. Solar tunel – The state was not capable(or not willing?) to effectively react History of FIT for FV up to 30 kW Final price for households
  • 6. Recent year (2015)  ASEK – above 50% electricity from nuclear until 2040  New Energy act – easier to build PV up to 10 kW  Limits in Bilina mine released (100 mil. t), decision about ČSA mine limits (Horni Jiretin) postponed until 2020 (750 mil. t)  Action plan for nuclear energy (detailed, budget 1,3 bilion EUR)  State commitee for nuclear energy  Action plan for Smart grids – slow progress, planned up to 2035…  Action plan for RES – vague, weak targets, no support for wind  RES share on electricity production 12% (target for 2020 increased from 13 to 15,3%)  NZU – subsidies for RES in housholds  OP PIK – subsidies for energy eff. in industry
  • 7. Future  2016 – started preparation of „Reform“ of distribution fees (high fixed fee - less motivation for savings and selfproduction)  2016 – expected „unlimited“ life-extension permit for DUKOVANY  2016-2025 – preparation phase of 1-2 blocks in TEMELIN and 1-2 blocks in DUKOVANY (financing model, permitting, selection of supplier)  2020 – re-evaluation of coal mining limits at ČSA mine  2025 – final decisions about investment into new NPPs  2033 – DUKOVANY commissioned?  2037 – TEMELIN commissioned?
  • 8. Source: ASEK 12/2014 Business as usual…. ASEK 2015– Forecast of final energy consumption
  • 9. Germany – decoupling of GDP and Energy consumption
  • 10. Source: Dopady zvýšení energetické účinnosti na českou energetiku, Úřad vlády, listopad 2014 Czech economy is still very energy intensive Energy intensity of EU countries GJ/1000 EUR (equal sector base)
  • 11. + 5 other scenarios, incl.green one… ASEK 2015– Update of Czech energy strategy „Optimised“ scenario:  Electricity consumption expected to grow  Up to 4 new nuclear reactors, above 50%  Electricity export continued  RES potential underestimated Gross electricity production RES Gas Nuke Lignit e
  • 12. So called „green“ scenario:  Consumption of electricity still growing  No new nuclear reactors  Only moderate RES growth  Import of electricity needed - scenario refused Lignit e Nuke Gas RES Gross electricity production
  • 13. Wind potential up to 16 TWh in 2040 (20% von Grossverbrauch) Source: Study of Komora OZE, www.csve.cz/clanky/potencial-vetrne-energie-cr/495 Czech Republic - Wind energy potential Optimistic Conservative ASEK-green ASEK-optimised
  • 14. RES potential is by 6-18 TWh higher than in „green“ scenario. Wind (TWh) PV (TWh) Biomass (TWh) Water (TWh) Geo (TWh) Total RES (TWh) ASEK - Optimised Scenario 2,28 5,88 9,6 2,53 0,14 20 ASEK - Green Scenario 4,53 7,6 10,2 2,53 0,14 24 Realistic green scenario 8,34-16,08 8-10 11-13 2,53 0,14 30-42 Total RES electricity production in 2040
  • 15. Realistic green scenario Gross electricity production New nuclear reactors not needed until 2045 RES Gas Nuke Lignit e
  • 16. Source Prognos/EWI/GWS 2014 Germany: In 2050 still 30% fossil electricity? Or import from „RES rich“ countries?
  • 17. Milan Šimoník, Energy expert, Czech Greens +420 725 628 034 simonik.milan@gmail.com http://simonikmilan.wordpress.com https://www.facebook.com/zeleni.energetika  Trust we each other? Energy Union?  Nordstream2?  Grid extension in Germany?  New design of electricity market? Market for nuclear energy?  Common responsibility for energy security?  RES potential in EU? Imports? Desertec? Discussion
  • 18. Abbreviations  MPO Ministry of industry and trade  SEK Czech energy strategy  ASEK Update of Czech energy strategy  OZE RES  Komora OZE Czech Chamber of RES  ERÚ Czech Energy regulatory office  ÚEL Ecological limits of coal mining