1. « Unlocking the PV Potential Worldwide:
Contribution of the Sunbelt »
Winfried Hoffmann
VP EPIA
VP&CTO Applied Materials Solar
Brussels, 28th October, 2010

2. 2101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
Customer Needs
on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency
€/kWh €/hr light W/m² g/W
Source: Fraunhofer ISE
€/m² / aesthetics €/W flexibility W/mm²

3. 3101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
European Photovoltaic Industry Association
The world's largest industry association devoted to the solar PV
electricity market
238 members representing 90% of EU PV Industry
National Associations
Sustainability as governing principle
EU and global levels, Members States (RES)
Reference information source: market, policy, technology & science
Leading edge studies: SET For 2020, PV Sunbelt, Solar Generation 6, ...
Conferences: Industry Summit, Market Workshop, Thin Film, CPV,
BIPV, ...
Founding member of the European Renewable Energy Council (EREC),
ARE, PV Cycle

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Membership
FROM THE WHOLE PV INDUSTRY VALUE CHAIN

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Historical Market Development by Regions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
MarketsizeinGW
JAP EU USA ROW
ref: European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), Navigant Consulting and Commerzbank
Average growth
45%/yr
Average growth
45%/yr

6. 6101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
Competitiveness
Between Electricity Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price
Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates (1999)

7. 7101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
winter
summer
$ct/kWh
hours
60
20
0
40
0 6 12 18 24
Summer
Winter
Standard20,64
6,35
26,78
21,42
31,92
30
10
20
¥/kWh
hours
1260 2418
Range of Electricity Prices
in California
ref: Japan = KEPCO office data ; California = Alison Hyde of BSW
Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation
(Jp) Tariff 2005
Seasonal Electricity Prices

8. 8101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
1
10
100
1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05
MW accumulated
ASPin$/W
PEF 20%
source: NAVIGANT
1980 2005 20081990 2000
Price Experience CurvePrice Experience Curve Driven by TechnologyDriven by Technology
 Wafer thickness
0,7mm 0,15mm→
 Kerf loss
0,5mm 0,10mm→
 Efficiency
8% 22%→
 Automation
Industrial manufacturing
 Economy of scale
0,1MW 200MW→
 Wafer thickness
0,7mm 0,15mm→
 Kerf loss
0,5mm 0,10mm→
 Efficiency
8% 22%→
 Automation
Industrial manufacturing
 Economy of scale
0,1MW 200MW→
Thin Film
Photovoltaic

9. 9101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
SET For 2020 – PV penetration in EU
Baseline Scenario: 4%
130 GW / 154 TWh
Paradigm Shift Scenario: 12%
390 GW / 462 TWh
Share of e-Demand by 2020
Indicative
2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 2022 2024 2026 2028 20302008 2014
2020
GW
Accelerated Scenario: 6%
200 GW / 230 TWh
Cumulative
Volume (GW)

10. 10101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
EPIA Study “Set for 2020” – World
PV Volume Scenarios
0
50
100
150
200
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Years
WorldwideannualPVinstallations
inGWp
Baseline
Paradigm Shift
Source: EPIA, Set for 2020
163
87
CAGR 25%CAGR 25%
CAGR 34%CAGR 34%
For Reference: 2000 – 2009CAGR 45%CAGR 45%
Paradigm shift scenario:
717 GW cumulated worldwide,
thereof 390 GW in Europe
Baseline scenario:
396 GW cumulated worldwide;
thereof 130 GW in Europe
Source: EPIA, Set for 2020, 2009

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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CummulatedPVPower[GW]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
YearyinstalledPVPower[GW]
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
AnnualPVGrowthRate
RES-thinking 2050
Worldwide PV Growth Scenario till 2050
PV Growth RatePV Growth Rate PV Volume GrowthPV Volume Growth
CAGR 2000-2009: 45%
Ref: EREC and EPIA 2010
CumulatedPVPower[GW]
YearlyInstalledPVPower[GW]
Source: EREC RES-Thinking, 03/2010

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10
100
1000
10000
100000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
inTWh/a
1% of total
10% of total
Total electricity production
PV electricity production
 EU-27
 100% target for RES of final energy
 All RES sources to contribute
 43% electricity share assumed
(vs. 37% in [r]evolution scenario)
 World (OECD)
 80% target for RES of final energy
 43% electricity share assumed, too
 PV covers about 1/4 of electricity
and about 1/6 of final energy demand
 Total PV energy supply in 2050:
11k TWh/a
 EU-27
 100% target for RES of final energy
 All RES sources to contribute
 43% electricity share assumed
(vs. 37% in [r]evolution scenario)
 World (OECD)
 80% target for RES of final energy
 43% electricity share assumed, too
 PV covers about 1/4 of electricity
and about 1/6 of final energy demand
 Total PV energy supply in 2050:
11k TWh/a
PV GrowthPV Growth Assumption for 2050Assumption for 2050
RES-thinking 2050 – World
PV Growth Scenario till 2050
Ref: EREC 2010 and W. Hoffmann personal estimates

13. 13101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
Development of the Various Market
Segments
Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates
0
20
40
60
80
100
2006 2010 2020 2030 2050
percent(%)
EU US RoW on grid RoW off grid

14. 14101028_SUNBELT_ W. Hoffmann
Background of Study
 Ernesto Macías, President of the Alliance for
Rural Electrification (ARE), established already
in 2006 the concept of this important research
 In 2008, EPIA, together with the Alliance for Rural Electrification and the
Spanish PV Association commissioned the first phase of the Study to the
Strategic Consulting Firm A.T. Kearney (ATK)
 In 2010, EPIA, supported by ATK, launched the final phase of the Study
and produced a written document to be publicly disseminated

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EREC – European Renewable Energy CouncilEREC – European Renewable Energy Council
Umbrella organisation representing all RES sectors:Umbrella organisation representing all RES sectors:
 AEBIOMAEBIOM European Biomass Association
 EBBEBB European Biodiesel Board
 EBIOEBIO European Bioethanol Industry Association
 EGECEGEC European Geothermal Energy Council
 EPIAEPIA European Photovoltaic Industry Association
 ESHAESHA European Small Hydropower Association
 ESTIFESTIF European Solar Thermal Industry Federation
 EUBIAEUBIA European Biomass Industry Association
 EWEAEWEA European Wind Energy Association
 EURECEUREC AgencyAgency European Renewable Energy Research Centres Agency
Associate members:
 EU-OEAEU-OEA European Ocean Energy Association
 EREFEREF European Renewable Energy Federation
 ESTELAESTELA European Solar Thermal Electricity Association

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Projection for Future RE Portfolio for a
100% Global End Energy Coverage
ref.: W. Hoffmann, own estimates 09/2010

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The World Wide Super Grid
Source:SolarMillenniumAG,Erlangen
excellent good suitable not suitable
…for Solar Thermal Power Plant
Super Grid „EUMENA“ 2010 - 2050
not suitable
Super Grid „NAFTA“ 2020 - 2060
Super Grid „ASIA“ 2030 - 2070
Super Grid „AUSTRALIA“2040 - 2080
Super Grid „WORLD WIDE“ 2050 - 2100
 Electricity
 wind off-/ on shore
 Solar Thermal Power Plant
 PV Solar Electricity
 Other Renewables
 Hydrogen
for special applications
 Solar Thermal
for heating and cooling
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
5
5
5
3
3
5
ref: W. Hoffmann SCHOTT Solar, Alzenau

18. Thank you very much!