This document discusses the future of cities and provides context on how cities have developed over time. It notes that by 2065, most UK cities will have high levels of diversity similar to Birmingham today. An aging population will increase the number of over-75s significantly. Future cities will have more integrated infrastructure and new forms of sustainable transport and energy generation. High-speed rail will increase connectivity between cities and urban forms will become denser and greener.
Dreaming Music Video Treatment _ Project & Portfolio III
The Future of Cities: what will cities look like in 2065?
1. The Future of Cities:
What will cities look like in 2065?
Sir Mark Walport
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
2. Knowledge translated to economic
advantage
Infrastructure resilience
Underpinning policy with evidence
Science for emergencies
Advocacy and leadership for science
British Science Festival
Government Chief Scientific Adviser
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Image: iStockphoto
3. British Science Festival
Role of the Chief Scientific Adviser
to HM Government
Report to the Prime Minister and Cabinet
Responsible for the quality of all S&T
advice across the whole of Government
Lead a network of departmental Chief
Scientific Advisers
Head of the Science and Engineering
Profession in the Civil Service
Supported by the Government Office for
Science
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Image: iStockphoto
4. 4 British Science Festival
Looking at the future of
cities has a long history
Eugène Hénard, The Cities of the Future, published in,
American City January 1911
5. British Science Festival
Capital cities: striking a balance
“It is the cities
which exhaust
the state and
are the cause
of its
weakness…
- Rousseau, Emile, 1762
Map of Paris by Nicolas de Fer, circa 1700
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6. British Science Festival
Joseph Chamberlain
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Joseph Chamberlain
19th Century British politician
and statesman
Elected Mayor of Birmingham in 1873
Promoted many civic improvements
Forcibly purchased Birmingham’s waterworks,
as the water supply was considered a danger
to public health
Campaigner for educational reform
Preferred to give local communities the
responsibility to act on their own initiative
Left the town ‘parked, paved, assized,
marketed, gas & watered and improved’
(Joseph Chamberlain)
7. British Science Festival
Thinking of cities as complex entities
Patrick Geddes
19th century Scottish town
planner
Thinking of cities as a whole, with history
and character taken into account.
Complex interactions between humans,
their activities and the physical environment
determine where people settle.
Regional planning should be responsive to
these conditions in order to seek a balance
between people and the environment.
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9. British Science Festival
Mapping poverty
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Charles Booth
19th century English
philanthropist and social
researcher
10. British Science Festival
Making room for nature
Lewis Mumford
20th century American
historian, sociologist and
philosopher of technology
Structure of modern cities partially
responsible for many social problems
Culture and nature should thrive
alongside technology in an ‘organic city’
Urban planning should emphasise an
organic relationship between people
and their living spaces
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11. Ebenezer Howard, Garden City, 1902
11 British Science Festival
Economics drives development
Louis de Soissons, Diagram of general
town-plan, Welwyn Garden City, 1920.
12. British Science Festival
What makes a sidewalk safe?
“…an immense laboratory of trial and error, failure and success…”
Jane Jacobs
The death and life of great American cities
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Image: Amanda Orson Image: Sue Waters / CC BY-SA 2.0
13. British Science Festival
The Changing Urban World
1950
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
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30%
Urban.
global pop.
14. British Science Festival
1980
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The Changing Urban World
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
40%
Urban.
global pop.
15. British Science Festival
2010
15
The Changing Urban World
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
52%
Urban.
global pop.
16. British Science Festival
2030
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The Changing Urban World
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
61%
Urban.
global pop.
17. British Science Festival
2050
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The Changing Urban World
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
72%
Urban.
global pop.
18. 1950
British Science Festival
And looking closer at Europe...
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
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UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
19. British Science Festival
1980
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
19
And looking closer at Europe...
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
20. British Science Festival
2010
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
20
And looking closer at Europe...
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
21. British Science Festival
2030
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
21
And looking closer at Europe...
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
22. British Science Festival
2050
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And looking closer at Europe...
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
23. 23 British Science Festival
Why are cities important?
Image: Centre for Cities, 2014
24. There are many possible definitions
24 British Science Festival
What is a city?
Physical components of cities
include:
▪ Physical boundaries
▪ Population size
▪ Hinterland
▪ Natural infrastructure
▪ Built infrastructure
▪ Transport links to other cities &
countries
Map shows alternative geographic boundaries
of cities using different statistical thresholds
Source: Arcaute, E., Ferguson, P. et al
arXiv:1301.1674 [physics.soc-ph]
Travel to work data from Census 2001
25. Cities emerge from the demand for
populations to interact and are about
people:
• Poverty and wealth
• Culture and diversity
• Social inclusion/exclusion
• Crime
• Demographics, e.g., ageing population
• Identity
• Overlapping systems of governance
• Legal designation
British Science Festival
More than infrastructure
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Image: Julian Mason/CC BY 2.0
Image: iStockphoto
27. British Science Festival
Current Trends in the UK
Distinct divide in North-South
productivity and employment.
London is outperforming the rest
of the UK economy.
Our largest cities lag behind
London in terms of their
performance – and lag behind
their European rivals in terms of
levels of GDP per capita
achieved.
Cities do not work in isolation –
the networks and interactions
between them are important.
GROWTH IN OUTPUT (NOMINAL GROSS VALUE ADDED) 2007-2011
Source: ONS, Regional Economic Indicators - March 2013
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28. There are many core questions, including:
What is a successful city?
How do cities grow and develop?
Can we make cities more sustainable?
What are the options for city governance?
How will city ambitions relate to national
frameworks?
28 British Science Festival
Future of Cities project
Project aim:
Provide central and local government with
an evidence base to support decisions in
the short term which will lead to positive
outcomes for cities in the long term
Living in Cities
Urban Economies
Urban Metabolism
Urban Form
& Infrastructure
Urban Governance
Science of Cities
6 KEY THEMES
29. Future challenges and opportunities
• Demography -ageing population
• Economic competitiveness
• Governance
• Climate change
• Technology
• Sustainability – energy, waste
• Resilience
• International competition
• Network of cities
British Science Festival
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HOUSEHOLD INCOME PER WEEK,
ENGLAND AND WALES (GBP)
What are the key enablers of
success for different cities?
What are their most important
decisions in preparing for the
future?
30. Major employers
Third Sector
British Science Festival
Future of Cities project
We are engaging with a broad range of stakeholders
through working papers, seminars, workshops and futures
exercises to develop the evidence base.
City visits City futures Academics
Working papers Workshops
Practitioners
Central Government
Young people
Local Authorities
Future Cities Catapult
+ many others
Institutes
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31. Meetings with 19 cities with
representatives from:
Local Governments and the Public Sector
Universities
Local Employers / Private Sector
Local Charities / Third Sector
British Science Festival
City Seminars
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32. Prominent emerging themes:
Social disparities
Close proximity of richest and most deprived areas;
how to alleviate social disparity
Employment (and skills)
Future employment trends would shape city;
Skills disparities
Transport
Inter/intra city links needed; importance of connectivity
Governance
Coherent leadership and collaboration needed for
progress
Calls for greater local government autonomy
Identity
Do people identify most strongly with a city, a region, or
a country?
The groups were encouraged to continue
the process and commission their own
local foresight projects to look at the
future of their city.
British Science Festival
What makes a city ‘sticky’?
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33. Work
Type of future work needs to
be determined as it dictates
demographies and housing
British Science Festival
Birmingham City Seminar
Demographic change
Birmingham is the youngest
city in Europe
Diversity
Super diversity and
super connectivity are
strengths for the city
Employment
Below average
employment rate of
63% (UK av. 71%)
But above average
employment growth
rate of +1.1% (UK av.
of +0.8%)
Relationships with other UK
towns and cities
London and the rest
Liverpool-Manchester
Newcastle-Sunderland-Gateshead
Birmingham-Solihull
Governance
and vision
Liveability
People are attracted by
culture and entertainment,
not just work
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Connectivity
HS2
34. British Science Festival
Research Themes
Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance Science of cities
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35. Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism
British Science Festival
Living in cities
Science of cities
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance
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36. 115
105
95
85
75
65
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The population will continue to increase.
Uncertainty regarding how much higher
the population will be by 2065.
UK will potentially be EU’s most
populous country by 2060.
Increasing population
80.6M
64.5M
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
British Science Festival
Millions
Variant projection High Population High Migration High Fertiliy High Life Expectancy
Principal Low Life Expectancy Low Fertility Low Migration Low Population
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Source: ONS (2012)
37. Increasingly diverse population, across
the UK.
By 2065, most UK cities will have levels
of ethnic diversity similar to levels
currently experienced in Birmingham.
This is not a new phenomenon. UK cities
have long had continuously changing
and diversifying demographic profiles.
British Science Festival
Increasing diversity
How do we develop cities to prevent
the marginalisation and exclusion of
groups of their residents?
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Image: iStockphoto
38. 2.6%
DECREASE
15-29S
British Science Festival
Ageing population
By 2065, there will be a major
increase in the number of
people aged over 75 in the UK.
Ageing in cities is slower than
elsewhere.
Significant impact on the
design and operation of our
towns and cities.
8%
INCREASE
75+
0.8%
INCREASE
65-75S
CHANGES IN THE PROPORTION OF
AGE COHORT GROUPS OF THE UK
POPULATION 2014-2065
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39. British Science Festival
Ageing population
How should cities be adapted to provide
attractive living and working
environments for the elderly?
Could we reinvent the family home?
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Image: Patrick Vale, RIBA (2013)
40. British Science Festival
Where will people live?
There are distinctive age-related
migration patterns.
The trend for older people to
move to coastal towns is
expected to continue.
Graduate talent, age 20-30
predominantly moves to London.
Majority of people leaving
London (pre-retirement) move to
Greater South East region.
Where will people choose to live in the
future? At what point during their life?
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Centre for Cities, 2014
Net migration in and out of London, 2009-2012
42. Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism
British Science Festival
Urban Economies
Science of cities
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance
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43. British Science Festival
Changing future of work
New technologies will change the
geographies of production.
3D printing
ICT continues to change travel
patterns and enables distance
working-living lifestyles
The rise of ‘third spaces’ for
people to meet, communicate and
work will continue: e.g. coffee
shops as a working environment
‘coffices’
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Image: Jonathan Juursema/CC BY-SA 3.0
44. British Science Festival
Evolving skills & education
Skills base is hugely important to
the adaptability of our cities.
Increasing skills gaps are
reported. E.g. coding.
Increasing numbers of older and
ethnically diverse workforce to
be included in employment.
What skills and knowledge should
we invest in now to enable the urban
economies of 2050 onwards?
How will UK cities cooperatively
enhance UK’s competitiveness?
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Image: Alfrmoldavie/CC BY-SA 3.0
45. Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism
British Science Festival
Urban Metabolism
Science of cities
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance
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46. 46 British Science Festival
Urban Metabolism
Cities consume huge amounts of
materials and resources.
Cities potentially offer more resource-efficient
living than non-cities.
Major issues of vulnerability and risk to
disruptions in supply chains.
Image: Guy Erwood
47. British Science Festival
Reduced water use
By 2050 parts of the UK could experience an
annual reduction in river flows of 15%, and
as much as 80% in some catchments during
the summer. There will, however, be heavier
rainfall in winters.
Coupled with population growth, this will
increase water demand in hotter seasons,
with greatest water stress projected in the
populous Greater South East.
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48. British Science Festival
Changing energy generation
The UK is currently a net importer of
energy and exposed to vulnerabilities
to supply disruptions.
UK cities will increasingly:
• Integrate decentralised modes of
energy generation.
• Deploy smart grids linked into
smart meters and smart
appliances.
• Develop zero carbon homes and
building to reduce the energy
footprint of the built environment.
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Image: Guerito/CC BY-NC 2.0
49. Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism
British Science Festival
Urban Form & Infrastructure
Science of cities
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance
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50. 50 British Science Festival
Increasing degrees of
integration and interdependency
Electricity, waste, transport and water infrastructure
will exchange resources and information across
sector boundaries.
Improved efficiency and quality
of service provision.
Reductions in the enormous
amounts of waste we produce.
Image: Ine Steenmans
51. British Science Festival
New types of mobility
We will use smaller-scale, autonomous,
low-carbon personal transport.
The bicycle will remain popular!
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Image: Hawkins Brown
52. High speed and high capacity rail
connections between more of the UK’s
cities will crucially impact economic
and social development.
52 British Science Festival
Increased connectivity
Image: ARUP
53. Much of the spatial layout of cities will be the
same – it is highly durable.
City centres will have re-urbanised – UK
cities will see higher densities of
development.
Denser, compacter and greener urban
forms will have huge impacts on people’s
health and sense of belonging.
If 75% of those currently failing to meet
minimum daily exercise levels did meet
recommended levels of walking, £675 million
could be saved per year.
British Science Festival
Image: Space Syntax
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Influence of urban form
54. Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism
54 British Science Festival
Urban Governance
Science of cities
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance
55. 55 British Science Festival
Diverse urban governance
People will retain a sense of national
identity but will increasingly affiliate
with the city within which they live.
Many young and ethnic minority
groups already have such city-centric
sense of belonging.
How will the increasingly diverse city
manage effective and equitable
representation for all?
56. 56 British Science Festival
City leadership
Cities will likely have greater autonomy in
their decision-making.
We will likely have an even greater diversity
of governance arrangements in cities.
This diversity will better reflect their individual
cultures and histories – not all of our cities
voted for mayors!
Who makes decisions?
How does city leadership need to
evolve?
What tools does leadership need?
57. 57 British Science Festival
City regions as units
Metropolitan areas can yield ineffective
spatial units for service provision, e.g. in
transport, education.
City-regions support cross-boundary
coordination across large urban areas.
They will significantly influence future forms
of city governance structures.
They are, however, difficult to define.
How do we balance enhanced
accountability of smaller units of
governance and the difficulty in
coordinating or achieving consensus on
bigger issues across a city-region? Image: M J Richardson/CC BY-SA 2.0
58. Living in cities Urban Economies Urban Metabolism
58 British Science Festival
Science of Cities
Science of cities
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Governance
59. New age of data & technology
brings potential to improve
design and operation of cities.
59 British Science Festival
The Internet of Things
Things as well as people are
highly connected, yielding
‘Big Data’.
This will not be without issues:
Privacy, Democracy?
How to integrate technocratic and
democratic cities?
Draft
60. 60 British Science Festival
Experience of the city will change
Augmented reality, seamless mobility
and mobile social networking will be part
of our everyday movements and life.
Image: 20fourlabs.com
61. 61 British Science Festival
Real-time engaging of citizens
The role of citizens will change. Citizen will
enjoy more direct involvement in
discussions around urban spaces.
Real-time data analysis will enable us to
manage cities with greater responsiveness.
Reactions to policies, announcements will be
gauged closer to real-time.
62. Living in cities
62 British Science Festival
But it is all interrelated!
Urban
Metabolism
Urban Form &
Infrastructure
Urban Economies
Urban
Governance
Science of cities
CITIES
63. 63 British Science Festival
Interrelatedness
The nature of the city of 2065’s challenges
and opportunities is one of interrelatedness.
Some issues continually emerge from these
relationships of influence: quality of life,
competitiveness, sustainability, resilience.
Do we have the data and skills to better plan
for the future of such interrelated cities?
66. British Science Festival
“My purpose is to inquire into the influence
which the progress of modern science and
industry may exercise upon the planning, and
particularly upon the aspect, of the Cities of the
Future…
The Cities of Tomorrow will be more readily
susceptible to transformation and adornment
than the Cities of Yesterday.”
Eugene Hénard (1910)
66
67. @uksciencechief
www.gov.uk/go-science
Every effort has been made to trace copyright holders and to obtain their permission for the use of copyright material. We apologise
for any errors or omissions in the included attributions and would be grateful if notified of any corrections that should be incorporated
in future versions of this slide set. We can be contacted through go-science@bis.gsi.gov.uk.
Editor's Notes
I should start by saying a few words about my role as Government Chief Scientific Adviser (GCSA), which is formally to “Advise on all aspects of science, engineering, technology and social science in relation to all aspects of Government policy.”
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Future of Cities project:
In order to answer these questions we need an evidence base. This is being compiled by engaging with a broad range of stakeholders – cities themselves, experts and government departments. To build the evidence base we are:
Identifying challenges and opportunities facing UK cities
Exploring future development trajectories
In this process we need to consider:
Issues at both at the national and local level.
Evidence that looks beyond siloes and see whole systems picture.
Evidence that looks at the situation now as well as 50 years into the future, towards 2065.
The evidence base will then be used to inform decisions that will shape the long-term future of UK cities.
The evidence is drawn together under 6 key themes:
Living in Cities; Urban Economies; Urban Metabolism; Urban Form & Infrastructure; Governance; Science of Cities.
I’m now going to share with you some of the emerging findings under these themes.
Critically, as something that is a step further than previous Foresight projects, this project is spending much time engaging with its wider stakeholder community. City visits have played a very important part in our evidence collection.
Cities we have visited:
Cambridge, Newcastle, London, Liverpool, Manchester, Lancaster, Cardiff, Belfast, Derry~Londonderry, Birmingham, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Oxford, (Milton Keynes,) Leeds, Sheffield, Nottingham, Leicester and Derby.
ALSO: Oxford Student Meeting and Birmingham School Visit
From the cities seminars, we have clustered their feedback and issues underpinning the three themes on the slides were raised by almost all of them.
16/17 groups had social disparities and work as major features of their discussions
15/17 had transport – this was sometimes linked to social disparity as connectivity was seen as a way to increase equality
So far, Newcastle, Lancaster and… have submitted their proposals
From the cities seminars, we have clustered their feedback and issues underpinning the three themes on the slides were raised by almost all of them.
16/17 groups had social disparities and work as major features of their discussions
15/17 had transport – this was sometimes linked to social disparity as connectivity was seen as a way to increase equality
So far, Newcastle, Lancaster and… have submitted their proposals
The map on the facing page highlights local authorities in England with projected above average (greater than 11 per cent) household growth to 2021, and areas of water stress. Those areas where household growth is projected to be particularly strong overlap with areas that already have serious levels of water stress, such as Greater London, the South East and the East of England. In addition, climate change is expected to result in significant reductions in river flows and groundwater recharge.
As a result, the UK Government’s Foresight programme report on Land Use Futures recommended that the implications for water resources need to be factored more systematically into decision-making on land use and land management changes, and the allocation of land for development should consider water availability, na
TransportBuzz: an interactive transport sentiment analysis map by TransportAPI: http:transportapi.com
TransportBuzz: an interactive transport sentiment analysis map by TransportAPI: http:transportapi.com