Presentation from the Foresight City Visions event - 8 September 2015.

1. Future of Cities Project:
City Visions
08 September 2015, Urban Innovation Centre
@foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions

2. @foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions
@RachelFDCooper
Welcome
Rachel Cooper, Future Cities Catapult
and Future of Cities Project

3. 10.05 Foresight project update & introductions
10.25 Lessons about the practice of city foresight
11.30 Future relationship of cities with central gov’t
12.20 Urban Living: call for city pilots
Morning Agenda

4. Project update & introductions
Greg Clark, Lead Expert Group
@foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions
@TheBizOfCities

5. 5
Derry/Londonderry
Glasgow
Edinburgh
Newcastle
Lancaster
Belfast
Manchester
Cardiff
Nottingham
Bristol
Leicester
Birmingham
London
Liverpool
Oxford
Leeds
Derby
Sheffield
Milton Keynes
Rochdale
York
Cambridge
Foresight & Cities

6. Lessons about the practice of city foresight
1. Why is thinking about the long-term future important for cities?
2. What are the ingredients of success in city foresighting?
3. What is needed to improve city foresighting in the UK?
@foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions

7. Future relationship: cities - central government
1. What local powers and leadership will be needed to achieve
sustainable and prosperous cities in the UK in the longer term?
2. How should central government adjust to increasing self-
government of UK cities in the long term?
@foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions

8. Urban Living: call for pilots
@foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions
@research_uk

9. Innovate UK
Driving Innovation
RCUK & Innovate UK:
Urban Living Partnership
Upcoming Call for City Pilots
Presentation at Foresight Future of Cities
City Visions Event – 8 September 2015
Gary Grubb (RCUK) and Mike Pitts (Innovate UK)
(Urban Living Partnership Team Co-Chairs)

10. The Partnership

11. Mexico City
Photograph: Pablo Lopez Luz, via The Guardian

12. Strong Economy
Environment
Quality of Life
Transport
WaterandWaste
Energy
Healthcare
Education
Security
Comms
Buildings

13. ‘Active Travel’ scenario for London would save NHS £1bn by 2030
(and avoid 3500 premature deaths)
+5km walking and +10km cycling per person per week
Integrated City Challenges

14. Examples of Integrated
City Challenges
• 30% of Birmingham’s traffic is NHS related
• 2500 priority families consume 40% of Nottingham’s resources
• Swindon needs to create 34,000 jobs by 2030
• Ipswich spends 2/3 of its budget on social care; 85% of its care home
residents have Alzheimer’s
• Within a seven-mile radius of Glasgow centre life-expectancy drops
by 28 years
• Belfast is 98% dependant on imported fossil fuels
• The New York metropolis has 12 million fewer people than Tokyo, yet
it uses more energy in total: the equivalent of one oil supertanker
every 1.5 days
• Leaky pipes result in 50% water loss in cities like Rio de Janiero and
Sao Paolo

15. The Goal
The RCUK / Innovate UK Urban Living Partnership will
harness UK research and innovation strength to help cities
realise a vision of healthy, prosperous and sustainable
living.

16. Our Approach
We want to work with UK cities/ urban areas to help them
create, develop and realise their future vision.

17. Building on the Past and Adding
Distinctive Value
We want to:
• Build on and develop synergies with other work, past and
present
• Learn from past experience and ensure that what we do will
add distinctive value

18. How it will Work
Envisage a two stage process in each city / urban area:
1. Diagnostic and visioning phase
2. ‘Delivery’ phase
Open to exploring new ways of working across
the partnership and with other partners

19. The Pilot Phase
We are planning to launch a call on 22 September for a pilot
phase in 4-5 cities/ urban areas to refine the approach and
ways of working.

20. Pilot Cities
The pilot call will be open to a wide range of UK cities & ‘contiguous
urban areas’ of differing sizes, complexity, age & geography.
The diagnostic work should aim to enhance understanding of inter-
dependent challenges and opportunities, add value to existing
urban strategies/visions and produce outcomes of value to cities in
making future investments and lay the foundations for co-designing
integrated responses to complex challenges

21. Sharing Learning from the Pilots
and City Case Studies
Our aim is that pilot / city case studies will stimulate
insights and innovation of value to other cities and
contexts, nationally and internationally.

22. Outline Timetable for Taking
Forward the Pilot Phase
July 2015 Consultation events on plans for the Partnership & pilot phase
(London & Glasgow)
22 September 2015 Call for pilot city consortia launched & registration for Town Meeting
opens
20 October Town Meeting in Birmingham for potential consortia interested in
applying to find out more about the call
26 November 2015 Expressions of interest / intentions to apply submitted (Smart Survey)
21 January 2016 Closes date for submission of full proposals (via JeS)
February 2016 TBC Shortlisting / Interviews / final decision / outcome notification
March 2016 Announce Grants
April 2016 Pilot city consortia start diagnostic phase
2017 Pilot city consortia report on initial diagnostic phase; pilot cities
contribute to ‘lessons sharing’ events

23. Lunch: please reconvene for 13.45
Networking opportunity with:
- Urban Living Programme
- Centre for Cities
- Datashine tool
- Design Council / CABE
- Future Cities Catapult
- Independent Transport Commission
- Office for National Statistics
- Urban Big Data Centre

24. 13.45 Overview of futures methods
14.00 Futures techniques and tools (for cities)
14.00 Thematic café sessions (for city partners)
15.45 Impacts of the Foresight project
Afternoon Agenda

25. Overview of futures work
Corinne Swain, Lead Expert Group
@foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions

26. Foresight Future of Cities
What is the future of UK cities in 50 years?
26
Multiple ‘answers’
in a system of cities

27. Foresight Future of Cities
What is the future of UK cities in 50 years?
27
Multiple ‘answers’
in a system of cities
From traditional Foresight report
to co-production of evidence
“Forewarned is forearmed”
[REPORT]
Foresighting
for Cities

28. Foresight Future of Cities28
City foresight for adaptability
Frequent conclusion of evidence review papers:
 Cities need to be adaptable within a
changing world
 Also applies to UK system of cities
Our report will be designed to stimulate interest
in foresight techniques, drawing on examples
from our collective work

29. Foresight Future of Cities
Where are we now?
State of city foresight outwith the project
29
Most thinking is mid-term
• Local Plans (LA or joint)
• Local Transport Plans (LA or joint)
• Strategic Economic Plans (LEP)
Use of scenarios limited
Generally alternative jobs projections or
spatial housing options
Few explore future roles for their city
A few exceptions e.g. Glasgow 2061,
London Infrastructure Plan 2050,
One Planet Cardiff 2050
E.g. Cardiff Corporate Plan 2014-17
Longer term thinking was more common historically, e.g. Abercrombie plans

30. Foresight Future of Cities30 Foresight Future of Cities
Where are we now?
 Lack of capacity
 Fear of raising expectations
where can’t influence
 Loss of research & intelligence
 Loss of skills & data
 Political time horizons + swings
 Perception that big cities
advantaged
 Changing national-local
government relationships
 Newly elected Mayors
demonstrating vision
 Initiatives managing risk
 More integrated approaches
to policy development and
service delivery
Challenges Opportunities
The value proposition for city
foresighting - our report will support

31. Foresight Future of Cities
Derry/Londonderry
Glasgow
Edinburgh
Newcastle
LancasterBelfast
Manchester
Cardiff
Nottingham
Bristol
Leicester
Birmingham
London
Liverpool
Oxford
Leeds
Derby
Sheffield
Milton Keynes
Rochdale
York
Cambridge
31
Project engagement with cities
6 city foresight
projects seed funded
3 city projects direct
project team support
National
scenarios
City visits
Collaborative
research

32. Foresight Future of Cities
What are our options? What
creative alternatives exist?
What levers are critical
to achieving desired
types of change?
What is the roadmap?
Where are the
vulnerabilities? What
assumptions need to
be challenged?
What do we know about
the future? What trends,
constraints, opportunities?
What direction do we
want to go in? What
are our aspirations,
goals?
32
What we’ve learnt:
Foresighting as a journey
Visioning
Analysing
Designing
Testing
Delivering

33. Foresight Future of Cities33
What we’ve learnt:
Sample techniques - ‘Visioning’
Goal mapping
Creative futures
 Visions of Cambridge in 2065
 Newcastle City Futures
 York Festival of Ideas
 Bristol Active Cities Summit
 Rochdale workshops
Personas
 Rochdale workshops
 Milton Keynes workshops

34. Foresight Future of Cities34
What we’ve learnt:
Sample techniques - ‘Designing’
Narrative based scenarios
Axes of uncertainty
 Liverpool Foresight project
 GM2040+ Manchester project
 Paper: Cities and public policy
 Foresight working paper 2
 Newcastle City Futures 2065
Projection-based scenarios
 Population-led scenarios
 Employment-led scenarios

35. Foresight Future of Cities35
What we’ve learnt:
Underlying principles for city foresight
Our report will also provide guidance on the process of
setting up a city foresight exercise from scratch
i. Challenge assumptions that the future extends the status quo
ii. Have an open mind
iii. Be creative – future thinking does not have to be realistic
iv. Accept messiness
v. The process matters – a glossy report is not essential
vi. And at all time have the purpose of why we are engaged in
foresight at the forefront

36. Foresight Future of Cities
Our legacy
36
 ‘Menu approach’ for city foresight exercises
 Community for learning and sharing
 Increased momentum for more collaborative
culture between Whitehall and cities

37. Foresight Future of Cities37
1st breakout session
Mapping goals [Breakout space 1]
Imagining the future [Breakout space 2]
Constructing scenarios [Auditorium]
Mark McCann
Sharon McNicholl
Richard Pancost
Roz Almond
Gary Dymski
Alan Harding
Nigel Peats
Richard Kenny
Cathy Johnston
Vicky Lofthouse
Simon Brereton
Nigel Horton-Baker
Lynne Davies
Mark Tewdwr-Jones
Mark Jaggard
Tom Wild
Eleri Jones
Sarah Toy
Robin Webber-Jones
Elaine Galletly
Paul Rogers
Jennefer Holmes
Tom Sansom
Fiona Robinson
Sarah Gonsalves
Esther Dixon
City partners: go to alcoves, with a maximum of 4 per table, from different organisations

38. Foresight Future of Cities38
2nd breakout session
Mapping goals [Breakout space 1]
Imagining the future [Breakout space 2]
Constructing scenarios [Auditorium]
Cathy Johnston
Elaine Galletly
Paul Rogers
Vicky Lofthouse
Lynne Davies
Mark Tewdwr-Jones
Eleri Jones
Esther Dixon
Mark McCann
Sarah Toy
Robin Webber-Jones
Tom Sansom
Fiona Robinson
Sarah Gonsalves
Jennefer Holmes
Rich Pancost
Sharon McNicholl
Peter Braithwaite
Roz Almond
Gary Dymski
Simon Brereton
Nigel Horton-Baker
Mark Jaggard
Tom Wild
Nigel Peats
City partners: go to alcoves, with a maximum of 4 per table, from different organisations

39. Impacts of the Foresight
project & agenda for action
Tim Stonor, Lead Expert Group
@foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions
@tim_stonor

40. Closing remarks
Alan Wilson, Chair, Lead Expert Group
@foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions

41. Thank you
City partners and Lead Experts will be happy to
continue the conversation informally over
refreshments in the breakout space next door
@foresightgovuk #UKCityVisions